BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted: 7 for 9
Reactions: Her! Yes! I love that the Spike Jonze
movie continued the amazing success of the National Board of Review winners and
rode the momentum all the way to the ceremony. In terms of predicting, I had Her and Philomena missing out. I should have known with that the latter
would get in with the British vote. I had Blue
Jasmine and Saving Mr. Banks
getting in. I am a little surprised that neither made the cut, but these
nominations are better. The alarming thing about this category is the complete
lack of Harvey Weinstein. Have the Academy finally gotten sick of him? No August: Osage County, The Butler, Fruitvale Station, Mandela…awesome.
I really liked Fruitvale, but suck it
Harvey! This will be a fair race, and there are several contenders. Gravity and American Hustle led in nominations with 10 each, but they are still
both looking up to 12 Years a Slave.
It will be an entertaining bunch of awards shows coming up. Tonight, with the
Critics Choice Awards, we may see one of the underdogs jump out ahead. But for
right now…
Preliminary
prediction: 12 Years a Slave
BEST
DIRECTOR
David O. Russell – American
Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
Steve McQueen – 12
Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese – The
Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: So,
I aced this category, but these nominees still surprise me. Alexander Payne was
the one that could have easily taken a back seat to Paul Greengrass, but he
survived and got a well-deserved nomination for the best directing effort of
his career. Scorsese continues his remarkable success, making it 5 of his last
6 movies getting Picture and Director mentions by the Academy (Shutter Island, wrongfully delayed and
screwed over, his only miss). Here we have a three man race. We have the
director of the Best Picture frontrunner in Mr. McQueen. We have suddenly the
A-list director and crowd pleaser in David O. Russell, who has 3 noms in 4
years. And we have Alfonso Cuaron, the director of the technical marvel and box
office king. I could see any of them taking home the prize. It is hard to
predict a Picture-Director split, but this is not a normal year.
Preliminary
prediction: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
BEST ACTOR
Christian
Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern
– Nebraska
Leonardo
DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel
Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey
– Dallas Buyers Club
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: No
Tom Hanks? No Tom freaking Hanks? Wow. It has been 13 years since his last
nomination, and he will continue to wait for another. I had Hanks and Idris
Elba getting in, with Bale and DiCaprio out. I am also heartbroken for Robert
Redford, whose performance in All Is Lost
is one of the truly brilliant pieces of work this year. Under normal
circumstances, the comedy nominations would be surprises, but those movies aren’t
true comedies. I love that Leo ended his snub streak. Ejiofor would be a
frontrunner, but there is just something about his performance that never
screamed “Oscar winner” to me. The clear frontrunner is McConaughey, whose film
got a mildly surprising Best Picture nomination, showing clear support for the
first-time nominee’s film. This is a category loaded with quality work, though.
Preliminary
prediction: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas
Buyers Club
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams –
American Hustle
Cate
Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra
Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench
– Philomena
Meryl
Streep – August: Osage County
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: How
exactly did Emma Thompson get snubbed for Saving
Mr. Banks? That is pure Academy stuff, and her performance was
extraordinary. Weird. I had her in and Golden Globe winner Amy Adams out. Her
performance was supporting, but this is her first Leading Actress nomination. I
am happy for her. If her movie starts taking awards, then watch out for an
upset. None of these previous winners are an insurmountable frontrunner.
Preliminary
prediction: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTOR
Barkhad
Abdi – Captain Phillips
Bradley
Cooper – American Hustle
Michael
Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill
– The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto
– Dallas Buyers Club
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had
the late James Gandolfini and Daniel Bruhl getting nominated over Jonah Hill
and Bradley Cooper. Hill marks this year’s nominee with absolutely no
nominations from the other awards circuits. It is well deserved, obviously. Bradley
Cooper’s nomination proves that David O. Russell is an actor’s dream director.
Jared Leto has to be the frontrunner for his stunning work in Dallas Buyers Club, but his speech was a
little awkward at the Globes. I sense that over the next month and a half, his
lead will eventually fade away.
Preliminary
prediction: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years
a Slave
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally
Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Jennifer
Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita
Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia
Roberts – August: Osage County
June
Squibb – Nebraska
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Sally
Hawkins! I love that she finally got in, especially after her previous snub in Happy-Go-Lucky. Woody Allen’s supporting
ladies once again get it done. I had her out and Oprah in, whose film was
completely shut out. Suck it, Harvey. I would like to think this could turn
into a race, but unless June Squibb takes the SAG on Saturday or Nyong’o takes
the Critics Choice tonight, then this is over.
Preliminary
prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – American
Hustle
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
– Eric Singer, David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine
– Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack
Her – Spike Jonze
Nebraska –
Bob Nelson
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
predicted a surprise Fruitvale Station
nom over Dallas Buyers Club. Clearly,
that movie has a lot more support than most anticipated. This should be an
interesting race, but I cannot see them letting Russell go home without an
Oscar again. Then again, I thought that about Jason Reitman’s Up in the Air screenplay and triple
nomination, but that award went to Precious.
I am picking the upset.
Preliminary
prediction: Dallas Buyer’s Club –
Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack
BEST ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
Before Midnight
– Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips – Billy Ray
Philomena –
Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave – John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had August: Osage County getting in
against my better judgment. Captain
Phillips was the one I had out. Unless crazy things start happening, then 12 Years a Slave is taking this award
home for sure. Objectively, Before
Midnight is the best screenplay of the year, but it can’t win the Oscar,
can it? Please, someone tell me it can. Nothing would make me happier.
Preliminary
prediction: 12 Years a Slave –
John Ridley
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: Wow,
nice category. I had 12 Years a Slave
in, of course. That snub is strange. I also had Rush and The Great Gatsby
getting in over The Grandmaster, Nebraska, and Prisoners. I love that the Oscars didn’t just go for the
CGI-looking movies this year. Prisoners
is a bizarre choice, but I like it. Roger Deakins is the man.
Preliminary
prediction: Gravity
BEST PRODUCTION
DESIGN
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had Oz the Great and Powerful in for Her. Glad I was wrong about that. This
is a rare technical category with the heavyweights represented, but in this
case, they are all going home empty-handed due to one of the more impressive
Production Design achievements in recent memory.
Preliminary
prediction: The Great Gatsby
BEST COSTUME
DESIGN
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks in and The Invisible Woman and The Grandmaster out. I love the support for
Wong Kar Wai’s artistry in The
Grandmaster. Too bad it got snubbed for Foreign Language Film. This is an
interesting race, but if 12 Years a Slave
is going to take Best Picture, then it needs to win some stuff.
Preliminary
prediction: 12 Years a Slave
BEST SOUND
MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I
only got Captain Phillips and Gravity correct here. I had All Is Lost, Elysium, and 12 Years a Slave
in. Normally this category has the Best Picture winner in it, but not this year,
unless that film is Gravity…
Preliminary
prediction: Gravity
BEST FILM
EDITING
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had Rush in and Dallas Buyers Club out. The Best Picture winner is likely present
in these 5 films. The winner is not always the one that wins this, but there is
a strong correlation. I am a little surprised that The Wolf of Wall Street got ignored, but oh well.
Preliminary
prediction: 12 Years a Slave
BEST SOUND
EFFECTS EDITING
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I
had Rush, Pacific Rim, and Elysium
in for all but Gravity and All Is Lost. Lone Survivor is stupid getting in here, with some of the strangest
and most exaggerated sound effects I have heard. At least this isn’t just
loaded with a bunch of punching sounds like usual. It is just frustrating that All Is Lost was only nominated here. 2
of the last 3 years, one of the year’s best films and most amazing technical
achievements (2011’s Drive) has had
this as its sole nomination.
Preliminary
prediction: Gravity
BEST VISUAL
EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had Pacific Rim and Elysium in for The Lone Ranger and Star Trek.
Nice nomination for a terrible movie (unless you ask Tarantino, that is). Best
Picture nominees do not lose to non-nominees in this category…ever.
Preliminary
prediction: Gravity
BEST MAKEUP
AND HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Predicted: 2 for 3
Reactions: Yes!
Bad Grandpa! That is so cool. The Lone Ranger is the bad movie that
gets in this category, not Bad Grandpa…for
the record. Of course, I could not have predicted that. I had American Hustle (odd snub here, by the
way) in over the Jackass guys.
Preliminary
prediction: The Lone Ranger
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG
“Alone Yet
Not Alone” – Alone Yet Not Alone
“Happy” – Despicable Me 2
“Let It Go”
– Frozen
“The Moon
Song” – Her
“Ordinary
Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had the song from The Hobbit and “Amen”
from All Is Lost in for Her and…Alone Yet Not Alone? What the hell? At first I just thought it was
the next Paris 36, but upon further
research, no one has seen or heard of this movie. Look at THIS. Ridiculous. 29
votes on IMDb. 1 review on Rotten Tomatoes. It sounds pretty bad. I am beyond
dumbfounded by the entire situation.
Preliminary
prediction: “Ordinary Love” – Mandela:
Long Walk to Freedom
BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I
only got The Book Thief and Gravity right. I had 12 Years a Slave in (obviously), as well
as Captain Phillips and Frozen. Interesting group. This is the
only mention of Saving Mr. Banks, and
other than Thompson, this was the best part of the film. I love that the Arcade
Fire guys got nominated for their amazing music in Her. I love that movie.
Preliminary
prediction: The Book Thief
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
12 Feet from Stardom
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had previous frontrunner Blackfish
and God Loves Uganda in for Dirty Wars and The Act of Killing. I love that the latter got in. It is one of the
most daring and shocking movies I have ever witnessed. It would be so cool if
it can pull off the victory here. I do not know too much about the others, but 12 Feet from Stardom got an applause by
the audience present at the nominations ceremony. So…
Preliminary
prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom
BEST FOREIGN
LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had the terrific The Grandmaster in
for The Missing Picture. Lucky
guesses, honestly. I really like this group of nominees. This category always
has some surprises, so Golden Globe winner The
Great Beauty will probably not take home the Oscar. I will go with…
Preliminary
prediction: The Broken Circle
Breakdown
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had Monsters University and A Letter to Momo in for The Croods and Ernest & Celestine. I picked the wrong obscure movie. 2 out of
the last 3 years Pixar gets the shaft. I do not have a problem with that. They need
to refocus their creativity on non-sequels. I like the tribute to Miyazaki. The Wind Rises is supposedly his last
film, and he is one of the innovators in the animated film industry. Can he
pull off the shocker?
Preliminary
prediction: Frozen
Overall
predictions: 73/107; 68.22% (67.29% in 2013)
Without the
last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (69.51%
in 2013)
On the Big 8
categories: 34/44; 77.27% (75.00% in 2013)
So, I did just slightly better than I did last year. I
even got the same percentage on one group…what?! This just shows that no matter
how familiar we get with the process and material…we still know absolutely nothing.
10 COOLEST
FIRST TIME NOMINEES
1. Matthew McConaughey
2. Michael Fassbender
3. Jared Leto
4. Sally Hawkins
5. Arcade Fire
6. Chiwetel Ejiofor
7. Steve McQueen
8. Pharrell
9. Steve Coogan
10. Terence Winter
10 WORST
SNUBS
1. Tom Hanks for Best Actor (Captain Phillips)
2. All Is Lost
for Best Actor (Robert Redford), Best Sound Mixing, Best Film Editing, Best
Original Score, Best Original Song
3. The Wolf of Wall
Street for Best Film Editing
4. Scarlett Johansson for Best Supporting Actress (Her)
5. Inside Llewyn
Davis for Best Original Song(s)
6. American Hustle
for Best Makeup/Hairstyling
7. Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor (Fruitvale Station)
8. Emma Thompson for Best Actress (Saving Mr. Banks)
9. To the Wonder
for Best Cinematography, Best Original Score
10. Daniel Bruhl for Best (Supporting) Actor (Rush)
Stay tuned for our 6th Annual Oscar Challenge!
What do you think of this year’s nominees? Who would you have nominated? Snubs?
Comment!
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