Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

            Last weekend, three road teams won (and the lone victorious home team needed to overcome a 28-point second half deficit).  The biggest underdog of the weekend won by a bigger margin than any other team; a team regarded as inept on the road won in the freezing outdoors; the best team at protecting the ball in the regular season turned it over four times; and football’s most conservative, boring, run-first offense somehow blew a four-touchdown lead despite a +3 turnover margin.  Predictable, last weekend was not.

            And yet guess who went 4-0 in his picks?  Guess who picked San Diego to win comfortably and for New Orleans to win in the final seconds?  Yours truly, that’s who.  Now that the gloating is complete, let’s proceed to my divisional round picks, which I’m positive will be 0-4.

            New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+ 7½)

            January 11, 4:35pm EST, Fox.

            Let me be clear: I dislike the Seahawks and want them to lose.  I am not alone in this.  I want to believe that in exorcising their road demons last week in Philadelphia, the Saints have suddenly transformed themselves into the 2007 Giants and should be feared wherever they travel.  I want to believe that a Super Bowl winning coach-QB combination with a significantly improved defense can go on the road and beat a 2^nd year QB and a franchise all too familiar with playoff disappointment.

            But I can’t quite do it for a few reasons.  First, while the Saints deserve props for finally winning a playoff game on the road (something Seattle had never done until last season), the way they beat the Eagles wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive.  They had two turnovers, and did not force any takeaways.  Brees was shaky early and could not find the end zone in the first half.  Jimmy Graham looked mortal, and the Eagles’ horrible rush defense made Mark Ingram look immortal.  They beat a quarterback and coach who were making their first playoff appearance, and benefitted greatly from a key Riley Cooper dropped pass which would have been a touchdown. 

            Another reason is that when the Seahawks play the Saints at home, stuff like this happens.  Seattle outscored home opponents by an average of 15.4 points this season.  Their pass defense was remarkable; in a year when 13 teams passed for over 4,000 yards, the Seahawks defense allowed only 2,752 (the 2^nd best pass defense – interestingly, the Saints’ – gave up 3,105 yards).  The last NFC defense to boast numbers like that?  The 2007 Buccaneers.  Seattle’s rush D gave up a league-low four touchdowns.  They led the NFL in takeaways, and their lone home loss to the Cardinals in Week 16 was fluky (Seattle had a +2 turnover margin and this play).

            If you want to look for clinks in the Seahawks’ armor, you can look at this: When Seattle wasn’t playing NFC West opponents, they were generally facing lousy teams.  Nine of their 13 victories came against teams with seven wins or fewer (New Orleans boasted only five such wins).  They also played only four playoff teams.  Perhaps the reason those pass D numbers are so outstanding is a reflection of the QBs they defeated: Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Chad Henne, Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kellen Clemens (twice), Mike Glennon, Matt Ryan, Christian Ponder, Brees and Eli Manning.  Only two of those QBs had 4000+ yards passing.  Before the home loss to the Cardinals, the Seahawks struggled at home against Tennessee and Tampa Bay. 

            And there’s another disturbing stat for Seahawks fans: Their 2-2 record in December. It’s not like the 2012 Ravens had an outstanding December either, but take a look at the past few 1 seeds that finished December with a .500 record or worse:

TEAM	RECORD	DECEMBER RECORD	PLAYOFFS
2013 Falcons	13-3	2-2	L Conference Championship
2009 Saints	13-3	2-2	W Super Bowl
2008 Giants	12-4	2-3	L Division Round
2008 Titans	13-3	2-2	L Division Round
2007 Cowboys	13-3	2-2	L Division Round
2005 Colts	14-2	2-2	L Division Round

            In other words, those six 1 seeds finished a combined 4-5 in the playoffs after 12-13 December records (that 2009 Saints team rested their starters after winning 13 straight).  Does this mean anything?  Maybe it means that you shouldn’t have two weeks off when you aren’t playing your best football of the season.  Or maybe it means that since 2005, the playoffs have simply gotten wackier.  Of course, it is worth remembering that it was on December 2 that Seattle beat New Orleans by 27.

            I bring all this up, and yet I’m still picking the Seahawks.  Why?  When they take the field Saturday afternoon, they will be the better team.  They could be playing the ’85 Bears and the momentum from those fans would still make this team formidable.  If Percy Harvin returns, they will have the deep threat downfield that perfects their sophisticated offensive scheme.  Richard Sherman is capable of shredding Kenny Stills and Lance Moore, and Mark Ingram will be lucky if he gains half the total yards he had against Philadelphia. 

            An argument could be made that because the Saints have the more experienced roster, played tougher teams, and didn’t have the week off, they may come out strong.  I believe that.  I doubt this game will play out in the same way as the one-sided affair five weeks ago, and the many irrational Seahawks fans who seem to think so are wrong.  I’m picking the Seahawks, but I feel like the homefield advantage is a 10-point swing.

            Prediction: Seattle 34, New Orleans 23

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 AFC Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24.  The Chargers were the sexy pick and the hot team from the Wild Card round, having beat the Colts in overtime – their fifth straight win.  And although San Diego came out strong, the Stealers monopolized on turnovers and used a strong running game to keep Philip Rivers off the field.  The Pittsburgh home crowd was energized, just like these Seattle fans will be.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (+ 7½)

            January 11, 8:15pm EST, CBS.

            A few thoughts about Indianapolis insane comeback last Saturday.  First of all, this was not another “Andy Reid game” where mismanagement fueled the epic collapse.  The only questionable decision by Reid came on the climatic non-conversion on 4^th-and-11 when he decided to call Kansas City’s final timeout immediately following the two minute warning.  But why not take a few extra moments to call up the play that will decide the rest of your season?  If Bowe makes that sideline catch inbounds, what is the purpose of having any more timeouts?

            Reid deserves to be commended for overcoming a remarkable slew of injuries and managing to put up 44 points with Knile Davis and Cyrus Gray as the Chiefs’ runningbacks.  But of course, Andrew Luck deserves the most praise.  The guy had three interceptions, no consistent running game, and only real downfield receiving threat.  As we’ve seen so many times in his early career, Luck is fearless, surprisingly agile, and capable of overcoming virtually any deficit (nine 4^th quarter comebacks in his first two years).  This guy is going to be on Verizon commercials before we know it.

            Now the real question: Does Luck have what it takes to carry over the second half magic of last Saturday’s came to a hostile outdoor environment in Foxboro?  For Patriot fans, there are some obvious similarities between this matchup and when the Denver Tebows came to New England two Januarys ago.  In that game, New England appeared to have the clear advantage on paper, but Tebow’s surreal 4^th quarter mojo secretly scared everyone (and this may be hard to believe, but there was once a time when the words “Tebow is scary” weren’t met with scornful laughter).  I mean, everyone thought: It makes perfect sense that in the Spygate/David Tyree/Bernard Pollard/4^th-and-2/Ras-I Dowling/Aaron Hernandez era that the Patriots would blow a game which would have been a no-brainer ten years ago. 

            Well, they didn’t blow that game (but that didn’t stop them from blowing the Super Bowl to this guy three weeks later).  And I don’t really think they’ll blow this game either, but that doesn’t stop every New England fan from thinking the same italicized thought above.  But hey, the 2013 Patriots look nothing like the 2011 Patriots; we’ve replaced Gronkowski and Hernandez with that fearsome running combo of Stevan “Fumble” Ridley and LeGarrette “Big Mac” Blount.  And instead of our pass defense being abysmal like it was back then, now our rush defense is abysmal (without Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and the Pats’ third leading tackler Brandon Spikes).  And Andrew Luck isn’t anything like Tim Tebow; he is a really good passer and scrambler!

            The best case for the Patriots is that Tom Brady is coming off his greatest season of his career.  No, he probably won’t win the Super Bowl like he did in 2003 or 2004; no, he didn’t throw 50 touchdowns like he did in 2007; he didn’t throw 4 interceptions like he did in 2010.  He had his lowest completion percentage since 2003 and was sacked the most times since his first full season.  But he had more 4^th quarter comebacks (5) than any of his previous seasons, and had at least four “There’s no way the Pats win this game” games (vs. New Orleans, Miami, Denver and Cleveland).  And no, the 2013 Patriots didn’t go 16-0 like 2007; but it’s frightening to think how close they came to victories in each of those four losses (three ended on goal-line stands and one ended like this). 

            Another case for the Patriots is that Indianapolis can’t run the ball.  Another case for the Patriots is that the Colts’ D just gave up 44 points to a Jamal Charles-less Kansas City team (and any time your secondary relies on LaRon Landry and former Pats cast-off Darius Butler, it’s not exactly ideal).  Another case for the Patriots is that they scored 59 points on Andrew Luck the last time the Colts came to Foxboro.  Another case for the Patriots is that they are 4-0 in Saturday night Division round games in New England (each of those wins coming during Super Bowl seasons).

            Of course, everyone made similar arguments for the playoff games against the Giants, Ravens and Jets.  It can be argued each of those teams defeated previous Patriots squads which were, frankly, far more loaded with talent.  And it remains to be seen what the limit is for Andrew Luck’s tremendous potential.  But as nervous as this depleted New England team makes me, they’re gradually finding their identity, even if it involves LeGarrette Blount returning kicks (and even more improbably, finding success doing so).  They still somehow managed to score the third-most points in the league and helped give Boston sports fans one of the most thrilling, unforgettable falls of all time.  It doesn’t feel right that the journey ends here.

            Prediction: New England 24, Indianapolis 21

            Playoff doppelganger: 2003 AFC Divisional Round, New England 17, Tennessee 14. En route to their second Super Bowl championship, the Pats played the sneaky-good Titans in frigid conditions on a Saturday night in Foxboro.  The result was a taut, defensive game with little spectacle and a lot of bruising hits.  It was one of the all-time classic “The score is close, but the result is not in doubt” Patriots games from that era which they may have resurrected in 2013.

           

            San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+3)

            January 12, 1:05pm EST, Fox.

            The 49ers are the trendy road pick this weekend, but personally, it is difficult for me to see why.  Carolina beat the 49ers in San Francisco back in November.  The Panthers haven’t lost at home since Week One, and have only lost once in their past 12 games.  Statistically, the two teams are remarkably similar: both had a top-five defense, both had bottom-three passing games, both lost to the Seahawks and Saints, both started 1-2, both have 6-5, 240 lb. QBs; and both won 12 games in the regular season. Shouldn’t this essentially be a pick-‘em, with the Panthers getting the slight nod because of the homefield advantage?

            But Vegas likes the 49ers for two (possibly three) main reasons: First, because San Francisco has more playoff experience, and second, that Jim Harbaugh is assumed to be a better coach than Ron Rivera.  In a strange way, this is similar to the 2011 NFC playoffs, when New Orleans (with more playoff experience and the “better coach”) marched into San Francisco as a 3½-point favorite.  The result was one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history, and proof that a bad betting line and negative public consensus can provide great motivation for home ‘dog to play tremendously as a result of feeling disrespected.

            I feel like this Panthers team is a candidate for that.  Frankly, they’ve been underdogs all season.  At the beginning of the year, Vegas listed the over/under win total for Carolina at seven games (Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay had higher win totals).  This was the make-or-break season for Ron Rivera and possibly Cam Newton.  They were underdogs at home against the Giants before they beat them 38-0.  Against all odds, they beat the 49ers and Patriots on back-to-back weeks.  No one thought they would overtake the Saints for the NFC South crown.  But they proved skeptics wrong.  And now, no one thinks they can win a home playoff game with Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart returning from injuries.  I suspect they feel perfectly comfortable in the position they’re currently in.

            Let’s consider why they could beat the 49ers.  Yes, San Francisco won in frigid Green Bay weather against a rejuvenated Packers team, but Colin Kaepernick needed his legs on key third downs to beat the league’s 25^th-ranked defense.  His passing game was off; he completed just over 50 percent of his passes, and at times made some inexplicably poor throws (nearly getting picked off on the game’s penultimate drive).  Aldon Smith and Justin Smith assaulted Aaron Rodgers; but how will they fare against a quarterback with the lethal speed of Newton?  In the November 10^th game (a game which Aldon was limited), Newton was sacked three times, held to 50 percent passing, and gained only 15 yards rushing.  But on the flip side, Kaepernick was also held to 50 percent passing, gained 16 yards rushing, was sacked six times, and the 49ers were held to 151 total yards.

            I said earlier that Vegas likes the 49ers for two, possibly three reasons.  What is the third possible reason?  According to conventional logic, it is difficult to beat the same team multiple times in one season.  And since that November 10 game was without Michael Crabtree, Kendell Hunter, Vernon Davis (in the second half), and a limited Aldon Smith, it makes sense that the 49ers will be eager to avenge that loss.  But I like the Panthers for two main reasons in this game.  First, the Panthers and their fans are used to being underdogs at this point, and when you’re the underdog, you don’t have to worry about things like expectations, publicity or pressure (or at least, as much).  If you think back to the last two playoffs, which team has benefitted the most from going under the radar?  The 49ers.  Now that those roles are reversed, I expect to see a Panthers team that plays with more guts and comfort.

            The second reason is that Carolina will be the 49ers third straight playoff-caliber road opponent (after Arizona and Green Bay).  Teams like the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens will tell you that’s not a justifiable reason for losing in the playoffs.  The 49ers are not really like those teams though, relying much more on grind-it-out consistency than getting hot at the right time.  But the truth is, while this game is extremely tough to call, I think the Panthers are being undervalued, the 49ers overvalued, and the result is essentially a flip of the coin.  Something tells me that in this day and age, the pick is the home team no one believes in.

            Prediction: Carolina 24, San Francisco 22

           

            Playoff doppelganger: 2011 NFC Divisional Round, San Francisco 36, New Orleans 32.  For the reasons stated above.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9)

January 12, 4:40pm EST, CBS.

            The game of the weekend.  The two best quarterbacks and offenses, the two best storylines, and the winner should be the AFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl.

            There are many, many reasons to like the Chargers in this game – some obvious, some not so obvious.  Let’s start with the obvious ones: Exactly one month before this Sunday’s matchup, the Chargers marched into Denver and in front of a national TV audience, in a game with significance for both teams, they stomped all over the Broncos.  San Diego’s defense held the unstoppable Denver offense to four straight three-and-outs and 18 yards rushing, while the Chargers offense controlled the ball for 39 minutes and ran the ball 44 times.  And then Philip Rivers put on his rattlesnake boots.

            Now, let’s move to the slightly less obvious reasons to pick the Chargers.  Rivers is 6-2 in Denver and 5-4 all-time vs. Peyton Manning.  In the last seven weeks, the Chargers have beat Kansas City twice, and Denver and Cincinnati on the road.  They just beat a team by 17 points after that team had gone 8-0 at home.  Rivers completed 69 percent of his passes on the season, and since Melvin Ingram has returned from his knee injury, the defense has been outstanding.  Of the Broncos’ three sub-30 point performances this season, two came against the Chargers.

            Finally, let’s look at the least obvious reason of all.  According to the USAToday, since 2009, the last four teams to face the Philadelphia Eagles in their home opener have won the Super Bowl.  Guess which team traveled to Lincoln Financial Field Week 2?  If you guessed this guy, you would be correct.

            In addition, we know that the Broncos offense was record-setting, but let’s look at the troubled recent history of high-scoring offenses when they reach the playoffs:

TEAM	RECORD	OFFENSIVE RANK (Points Scored)	POSTSEASON
2012 Broncos	13-3	2	L Division Round
2012 Patriots	12-4	1	L Conference Championship
2011 Packers	15-1	1	L Division Round
2011 Saints	13-3	2	L Division Round
2010 Patriots	14-2	1	L Division Round
2009 Saints	13-3	1	W Super Bowl
2007 Patriots	16-0	1	L Super Bowl
2007 Cowboys	13-3	2	L Division Round
2006 Chargers	14-2	1	L Division Round
2005 Colts	13-3	2	L Division Round
2004 Colts	12-4	1	L Division Round
2003 Chiefs	13-3	1	L Division Round

            (Note: It’s funny how the 2009 Saints mess this graphic up, just like they did when I was looking at the Seahawks game earlier in the column).

So that’s it.  All the reasons to pick San Diego in the upset over the overrated Broncos this year.  It’s clear.  Offensive juggernauts don’t win in the postseason, and Peyton Manning has has eight “one-and-done” playoff appearances.  It’s the Chargers.  Right?

A good case for the Broncos is that in the December 12 game, Wes Welker was out with a concussion.  He will be back this week.  Another good sign for Denver is that the Broncos were 7-0 in games without Von Miller.  And although he will miss the remainder of the playoffs, his presence or absence did not dramatically alter how the Broncos’ defense played, statistically speaking. 

But the best case for the Broncos is this: Like the Panthers, no one really believes in them (although they still are somehow a 9-point favorite – ridiculous).  Strange to think – a team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, with a record-setting offense, and that pretty much indisputably was the best team of the 2013 regular season, now is a team everyone seems to seriously doubt.  The past playoff woes of Manning and good offenses in general may be good long-term indicators, but you’re really saying that can’t win a single game in the playoffs?  For two straight seasons?  After playing in the AFC’s toughest division and beating the Chargers in San Diego when Wes Welker was healthy?

I think Manning is sick of the criticism he is receiving.  Do you realize he hasn’t won a playoff game since he beat the Jets in the 2009 AFC Championship game?  It’s a little similar to that crazy stat about Tom Brady going from January 2008 to January 2012 without a single playoff win.  You can only hold down a talent like that for so long; you’re asking us to believe that Peyton Manning will really go five years without a playoff victory?  And it’s not just Manning either.  This is the best offense in football and no other team was even close (Example: The Broncos scored 76 touchdowns, and the second-place Bengals scored 54).  If Demaryius Thomas had a bad game, then Eric Decker, Welker or Julius Thomas stepped up; if Knowshon Moreno looked sluggish, then Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman picked up the pace.  And yes, the defense gave up nearly 400 points, but technically, they allowed only three opponents to score 28+ points.  This for a team which offensively scored 28+ points in all but three games.

This game will be a classic.  The winner has an excellent shot of making it to Super Bowl 48.  The Chargers are incredibly hot, but another first-round playoff exit for Peyton Manning just seems too crazy to be believed.   Every instinct in my brain tells me to pick the 9-point road underdog that the public loves.  That’s why I’m picking . . .

Prediction: Denver 34, San Diego 31

           

            Playoff doppelganger: 2009 NFC Championship Game, New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28 (OT).  Two classic quarterbacks, one classic game with a lot of turnovers and a now-immortal radio call.  Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers have had more tragic moments than Julianne Moore onscreen. It feels weird that one of them has to advance to the next round.