Is this way too early to be taking Oscar predictions this seriously? Absolutely. Am I insane? Unclear. All I have to say is that I love writing this
article each year, and this is actually the first time I have done it before
the previous year’s ceremony. It is going to be a year of war films and
race-related movies. Check out which films you need to pay attention to in
2016 and which performances and films I suspect will be anointed at the end of the year! Enjoy!
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk - Simon Beaufoy,
Jean-Christophe Castelli – This is absolutely the
most Oscar-baited screenplay of the year. Former winner Beaufoy writes his
version of a beloved book with former winner Ang Lee directing. It follows a
group of soldiers recounting their experiences just before returning from war.
Look for major awards play with this one.
2. Silence – Jay Cocks – Scorsese’s movie finally appears to be
coming out, and he has frequent collaborator Cocks with the screenplay. Marty’s
movies are always in the running in all categories, and this passion piece should
be no different.
3. Indignation – James Schamus – This Philip Roth adaptation by
the writer of Crouching Tiger seems
to me like this year’s An Education.
If we believe his characters, then this could be a sleeper hit.
4. War Machine – David Michod – Michod is essentially 1-2 in his
movies, with his hit being Animal Kingdom
and his disappointment being The Rover.
This Brad Pitt-starring political satire appears to be a return to form and a
sure-fire awards magnet.
5. Love & Friendship – Whit Stillman – This Jane Austen
adaptation has a wonderful cast and the always interesting Stillman at the
helm. Screenplays based on Austen are not always what gets recognized, but this
promises to have a bit more imagination than previous ones.
Others in contention
6. The Circle – James Ponsoldt – Ponsoldt has been a huge 4-4 in
his films thus far, and with this Eggers adaptation, he got Tom Hanks, Emma Watson,
John Boyega, Ellar Coltrane, and Patton Oswalt, among others. It sounds
fascinating, and if it hits as much as it could, then this could be one of our
major Oscar players.
7. The Seagull – Stephen Karam – This Chekov adaptation has a
lovely cast and a plot that promises to lend a lot of room for the first-time
writer to shine.
8. Sully – Todd Komarnicki – This Clint Eastwood film has Tom
Hanks as a pilot who is a hero for landing an aircraft on the Hudson River
during a big storm. Sounds a bit like Flight
meets Captain Phillips. Sounds
like…Oscar?
9. The Zookeeper’s Wife – Angela Workman – This Nazi-era story of
zookeepers who saved hundreds of humans and animals during an invasion gets
Nika Caro as director, whose Whale Rider
and North Country were popular with
the awards circuits a decade ago. This sounds like a winner with Jessica
Chastain and Daniel Bruhl as the headliners.
10. The Light Between Oceans – Derek Cianfrance – This might be
more out of principle than actual probability, but Cianfrance deserves a movie
to hit big with the Academy. This is an adaptation for once, and it has Alicia
Vikander and Michael Fassbender as spouses trying to raise an abandoned baby in
a remote Australian town. I want so much for this to be great.
11. Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford – Ford’s A Single Man was a surprise hit back in 2009, and this adaptation
sounds like a complicated mystery-drama with a lot of room for him to dress it
up. Having Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon, and Amy Adams doesn’t hurt either.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. The Founder – Robert D. Siegel – The writer of The Wrestler gets soft-hearted The Blind Side director John Lee Hancock
to take control of his movie about the founder of McDonald’s. Oh, and it is
Michael Keaton, who has been on a role since a return to real acting. Look for
the Oscars to swoon over this one.
2. La La Land – Damien Chazelle – Chazelle, hot off the massive
indie hit Whiplash, find himself
directing an original musical with his next film, starring Ryan Gosling, Emma
Stone, and Oscar-winners JK Simmons(!) and John Legend. It is a July release,
but still. It sounds just perfect.
3. The Great Wall - Thomas Tull, Max Brooks, Tony Gilroy, Carlo Bernard, Doug Miro – This Matt Damon-starring Yimou Zhang American film sounds like it
has major potential. It is a mystery about the construction of the Great Wall
of China, and I can’t wait to know more. Tony Gilroy being involved in the
writing assures that it can be as great as it sounds.
4. Dheepan – Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Noe Debre – It has
been a bit since we have had a foreign film in the running in the screenplay categories,
and who better than A Prophet-director
Jacques Audiard to break the streak. It took top prize at Cannes last year, so
we know it at least has a following already.
5. A Monster Calls – Patrick Ness – This movie sounds a bit like Where the Wild Things Are or Pan’s Labyrinth. Either way, it could be
a magical film that sweeps Oscar voters off their feet. Director JA Bayona is
also coming off the popular The
Impossible, so this first-time writer must have had quite the screenplay to
pull him in, as well as actors like Liam Neeson and Felicity Jones.
Others in contention
6. Untitled WWII Film – Steven Knight – Robert Zemeckis is a tough
sell these days, but the nominated writer of Eastern Promises poses a potential to return to form for him. Brad
Pitt and Marion Cotillard as intelligence agent and potential Nazi lover? Yes
please.
7. 20th Century Women – Mike Mills – Mills won over
audiences with the overrated Beginners,
but his next movie sounds much more likable. It follows three generations (Elle
Fanning, Greta Gerwig, Annette Bening) of love-searching in SoCal. I like the
movie’s potential.
8. The Whole Truth – Nicholas Kazan – Courtroom dramas are not
always an easy play in the screenplay categories, but the good ones turn heads.
Elia Kazan’s son also got Frozen River
filmmaker Courtney Hunt to direct a solid cast as well. Keep an eye out for
this one.
9. Deepwater Horizon – Michael Matthew Carnahan, JC Chandor, Matthew
Sand – Sadly, Chandor is no longer attached to direct this one, but Peter
Berg can make a good film. It is about the famed 2010 oil spill that was the
largest in US history.
10. Christine – Craig Silowich – This is the story of Christine
Chubbuck, who committed suicide on live television in the 1970s. There isn’t a
whole lot of filmmaker pedigree with this one, but it could be Network-esque and stars Rebecca Hall and
Michael C. Hall.
11. The Promise – Terry George, Robin Swicord – George really let
us all down with his flop Reservation
Road coming off Hotel Rwanda, so
I won’t get too excited about this one. It does have Oscar Isaac, Christian
Bale, and The Walk’s Charlotte Le Bon
in a love triangle at the end of the Ottoman Empire. So…yeah I just got
excited. Damn.
12. Loving / Midnight Special
– Jeff Nichols – The former is about race relations in the 1950s with Joel
Edgarton and Michael Shannon, and the latter comes out in a couple months and
is some sort of family sci-fi movie. Nichols is the genius behind Take Shelter and Mud, so both of these deserve our undivided attention.
13. A United Kingdom – Guy Hibbert – Hibbert is a popular TV
writer, and he got Amma Asante, director of Belle,
to make this British film about controversy surrounding race relations in 1940s
London. Rosamund Pike and David Oyelowo. I’m there.
14. Una – David Harrower – The nominees in this category are not
always Oscary, so this passionate thriller with Rooney Mara by an inexperienced
team could sneak in. It sounds fascinating and I can’t wait to hear more about
it.
15. LBJ – Joey Hartstone – Rob Reiner directs a movie with Woody
Harrelson as President Johnson. Dude…
16. Hacksaw Ridge - Gregory Crosby, Andrew
Knight, Robert Schenkkan, Randall Wallace – Andrew
Garfield stars as an Army medic in WWII who refuses to kill. The writing team
is intriguing, and it has Oscar-winner Mel Gibson behind camera. It sounds
terrific, but we’ll see how the screenplay competes compared to his other
films.
17. Untitled Howard Hughes Film – Warren Beatty - This movie
wrapped years ago, but Warren Beatty takes forever in post-production. It is
about Hughes in his later years and the affair he had with a young woman,
played by Taissa Farmiga (I think…hard to tell when details are kept this far
under wraps). It could be great or an absolute disaster. I haven’t decided yet.
I’m hoping the last 18 years have been good to him and that we aren’t going to
experience another Town and Country.
BEST
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Charlotte Le Bon – The Promise – Le Bon was one of the
highlights of The Walk, and this
seems like the film that could be her real break out, playing with Bale and
Isaac. Even in his bad movies, Terry George is great with his actors.
2. Katey Sagal – Bleed for This – I will keep talking
about this movie until it comes out. A boxing movie starring Miles Teller and
directed by Ben Younger (Boiler Room).
Sagal plays Vinny Pazienza’s mother in this true story, which should provide a
ton of great scenes for the underused veteran actress.
3. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – Stewart
won over critics with her terrific performance in Clouds of Sils Maria, so getting Ang Lee as her next director
promises to take her to the next level. She has been award-worthy in the past
(yes, she really has), but has got to be her most high-profile Oscar role yet.
4. Emma Greenwell – Love & Friendship – The Shameless actress got an important role
in the Austen adaptation, which, judging from the description, is a part that
will give a lot of room for the inexperienced actress to shine.
5. Laura Linney – Sully – It appears that Linney, not
nominated since 2007, plays with wife of Hanks’s lead in Eastwood’s movie. She
was great in her last collab with Clint in Mystic
River, so maybe this one she will get in instead of her supporting co-star.
This time, she will be competing with Anna Gunn.
Others in contention
6. Saoirse Ronan – The Seagull – Fresh off her second
Oscar nom, she gets an actor-friendly director and a character that will let
her draw on her innocence and talent to outshine a really strong cast.
7. Taissa Farmiga – Untitled Howard Hughes Film – If she
is actually the young woman in question in the movie description, then I love
her chances. She is every bit as talented as her mother.
8. Tessa Thompson – War on Everyone – Coming off Creed, Selma, and Dear White People,
Thompson is one of those inevitable future stars. Being directed by the
up-and-coming John Michael McDonagh might be a perfect storm that takes her all
the way to the ceremony. Plot details are thin, so it depends on the size of
her part.
9. Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans – I am not
sure about her role in Cianfrance’s drama, but it has now been 11 years since
her only nom/win, which was really her only time ever in contention. It is time
for that to change.
10. Rooney Mara – The Secret Scripture – Mara is going
to be in and around the awards consistently now. She has a bunch of movies
coming out. She plays the younger version of Vanessa Redgrave’s old woman
reliving her stay in a mental hospital. It is also directed by Oscar favorite
Jim Sheridan. Either could be leading or supporting, but judging from Carol, the younger is almost certainly
going supporting.
11. Laura Dern – The Founder – She got a surprise
bone thrown to her for Wild, so that
proves that she is still in the Academy’s consciousness. She plays Keaton’s
wife in this, which will undoubtedly provide room for the always underrated
Dern to maybe snag another nom.
12. Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women – Fanning
is set to have a big year, and this seems like her most sure-fire hit. She
could totally outdo the oftentimes understated Gerwig and Bening in this
multiple character drama, and if she does, then a nom seems very possible.
13.
Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ – She plays Lady Bird in Rob
Reiner’s biopic of LBJ. Two noms in a row? I’m not that lucky.
14. Shailene Woodley – Snowden – She plays Edward Snowden’s
girlfriend in Oliver Stone’s drama, which has to have anyone who knows both
parties intrigued. What could Stone possibly do with Woodley? If she breaks her
normal persona, then I have to think that awards will come her way, especially
if Allegient doesn’t suck as hard as Insurgent did.
15. Kara Hayward – Manchester by the Sea / Paterson – Kenneth Lonergan is
directing the Moonrise Kingdom star
Hayward in the first tough drama, and Jim Jarmusch directs her in the second
opposite Adam Driver. She is going to break out this year; it just depends on
which film.
16. Julia Roberts – Money Monster – The trailer looks a
bit loony and over-the-top, but Jodie Foster is a capable director, and she
definitely seems to have the soul part of the movie with George Clooney and
Jack O’Connell as the showy leads. I can’t think of a more Golden
Globes-begging movie than this.
BEST
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1.
Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – He
is one of the most obvious “how have they never been nominated?” actors out
there. For the first time in many years, he has a part in a movie of substance
by an Oscar favorite. My hopes are high.
2.
Ben Mendelsohn – Una – He has been doing great work
for a few years now, and playing the mysterious antagonist opposite Rooney Mara
should be a showcase role for him.
3. John Boyega – The Circle – Fresh off Star Wars, Boyega has one of the most
important roles in Ponsoldt’s next film. He has the talent to become a
perennial nominee. We shall see how this one goes, but I expect greatness.
4. Andy Lau – The Great Wall – Zhang’s first
American film still has one of the more notable Chinese actors in the business.
I expect Lau to be in his element, and he could very well get one of the rare
Asian acting nominations by the Academy.
5. Adam Driver – Silence – It is time for Driver to
be nominated. He is a scene stealer in every film and TV show in which he
appears, so being directed by Scorsese should be an absolute treat. He and
Garfield might both be lead, but Daniel Day-Lewis was originally cast in the
part that went to Liam Neeson, so I have to think that Neeson’s role will be
billed as the lead.
Others in contention
6. Peter Sarsgaard – The Magnificent Seven – Details on
Antoine Fuqua’s remake of the classic western are thin, so this is just a gut
feeling that the underrated actor will outshine the otherwise predictable cast.
7. JK Simmons – La La Land – His last time working
with Chazelle resulted in one of the easiest Oscar wins in decades, so this
seems like a pretty safe bet that he will be great under his tutelage again.
8. John Carroll Lynch – The Founder – He plays Mac McDonald
in the film about founding of his restaurant. He has always been under the
radar, so maybe a very Oscary film like this will be his ticket into the big
time.
9. Willem Dafoe – The Great Wall – It’s been 16 years
since the last nomination for Dafoe. This is the type of movie and role that
could land him back in the running. He hasn’t really been a threat for any
awards since Shadow of the Vampire,
in fact.
10. Daniel Bruhl – The Zookeeper’s Wife – He might be
lead, but given the 2015 nominees, who knows where they will place people now?
He very nearly secured a nomination for Rush
a couple years back, so it would not be a stretch for him to get in for a
potentially buzzed film like this.
11.
Jeffrey Donovan – LBJ – He plays JFK. A lot of times,
the juiciest real life roles are not the ones that are recognized because it
just turns to caricature, but Donovan has always been subtle enough that this
could work out extremely well.
12. Keith Stanfield – War Machine – He is one of the most
interesting young actors. You might remember him from Dope, playing Snoop in Compton,
and Short Term 12. I have to think
that his part in this movie will be something special. He chooses his roles
wisely.
13. Michael Shannon – Loving / Nocturnal Animals – He was just left off in 2015 for 99 Homes. These two films, one of which
being with frequent collaborator Jeff Nichols, should keep him in the running
for another awards season.
14. Corey Stoll – The Seagull – He plays a writer and
Annette Bening’s lover in the Chekov play. He is a scene-stealer in most movies
and in House of Cards. If he can be
the standout, as he was in the Midnight
in Paris cast, for example, then this will become very possible.
15. Tom Hanks – The Circle – The Academy has been
off Hanks for a while, but this movie sounds like one of his cooler roles in
years. He rarely takes parts that are not leads, so this could be a refreshing
return to actually embodying a character, rather than just playing real life
characters as Tom Hanks.
16. Tracy Letts – Indignation – He really is more
known as a playwright, but he can certainly hold his own as an actor. This
movie promises to be one of the best of the year, and he also has Elvis & Nixon and Christine to keep him in the back of our
minds throughout the year.
17. Michael C. Hall – Christine – Hall has yet to really have
that movie role to break him out of his Dexter
typecast, but playing Christine Chubbuck’s crush and potential reason for her
public suicide, he very well might steal the movie/year.
18. Christian Bale – The Promise – Bale just received
another nomination for The Big Short,
and I can see him as a yearly contender as we go forward. It all depends on if
this is good Terry George or bad Terry George. Bale will bring it either way.
BEST
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Jennifer Aniston – The Yellow Birds – She plays the
mother of a tortured Iraq soldier in the movie by the director of 2013 critic
favorite Blue Caprice. She had to
have been #6 for her brilliant performance in Cake, so we know that voters have finally accepted her as a true dramatic
actress. This might be her time.
2. Lupita Nyong’o – Queen of Katwe – She is a previous
Supporting Actress winner, so a Best Actress nomination seems like the next
step for the young talented actress. She plays in actor-friendly Mira Nair’s
film about a young Ugandan girl who attempts to become a world chess champion.
She reportedly plays the always awards-baity mother role.
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers – She got in for Joy, so we can expect her to be
nominated for everything. This is a Christmas-release sci-fi film by nominee
Morten Tyldum. Sounds like a hit.
4. Chloe Grace Moretz – Brain on Fire – She is one of the
best young actresses out there, and in this true story, she plays a girl on the
brink of insanity. The director is largely inexperienced, but that is not
always an issue. Remember Benh Zeitlin?
5. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins – She is in
that mode of being nominated for everything as well. In this true story by
Stephen Frears, she plays an old woman who tries to become an opera singer
despite a terrible voice. I can only imagine how the older voters will flock to
this probable piece of fluff.
Others in contention
6. Alicia Vikander – The Light Between Oceans – She plays
the wife role in Derek Cianfrance’s drama. It worked out well for Michelle
Williams in Blue Valentine. Plus,
Vikander is on quite the hot streak right now.
7. Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals – She is one of
the most beloved actors in the business, so a complicated role like this should
be an easy sell. She is normally supporting, but this sounds like she is
definitely the focus of the Tom Ford film.
8. Emma Watson – The Circle – The movie sounds very
Oscar buzz worthy, and she is the lead. Watson is supremely talented, and she
probably should have a nomination already for Wallflower. Maybe Ponsoldt can take her to new heights and break
the predetermined Harry Potter
typecast.
9. Jessica Chastain – The Zookeeper’s Wife – Chastain is
always doing great work, and in Niki Caro’s uplifting film, she should have
plenty of room to show off her range.
10. Emma Stone – La La Land – Chazelle’s musical
could not have a more interesting cast. We already know of her chemistry with
co-star Ryan Gosling. If the movie is a massive hit, then expect them all to
get swept in with the waves.
11. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship – She rarely
is put in a position to really showcase her obvious talents, but in Whit
Stillman’s Austen adaptation, she will certainly be given room to shine
through.
12. Rebecca Hall – Christine – The only reason I don’t
predict the underrated actress higher is the movie just might not be big
enough. It premieres at Sundance, so we will know of its merit and distribution
soon. The role has got to be the most awards-friendly of any this year.
13. Ruth Negga – Loving – The new face Ethiopian
actress plays opposite Joel Edgarton in Jeff Nichols’s story of an interracial
couple who were arrested in the 1950s. There’s always a newcomer…
14. Sasha Lane – American Honey – The first-time
actress secured the lead in Fish Tank
director Andrea Arnold’s coming-of-age tale. There’s always a newcomer…
15. Vanessa Redgrave – The Secret Scripture – She might be
supporting, but it doesn’t matter. The role as an old mentally ill woman is a
dream role for the former winner who hasn’t been nominated in almost 25 years.
16. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women / The Seagull – She seems to have a
great year every 5 years or so, and this is definitely another potential one
for the previous nominee. Both of these roles sound great for her, but we will
have to see how she is billed in both.
17. Cynthia Nixon – A Quiet Passion – I mentioned this
role last year, but it was delayed for some reason. It is a Terence Davies
movie about Emily Dickinson, which is one of those potentially iconic roles for
an actress who is mainly known for TV. I want to see how this develops.
18. Marion Cotillard – Untitled WWII Film – She plays the
potential Nazi spy opposite Brad Pitt in Robert Zemeckis’s romantic war
thriller. When she makes a movie, it should be expected that she will be in the
discussion.
19. Rooney Mara – Una – If the movie is big enough,
then she could easily secure a nomination. She might be splitting votes with
herself, though, with potentially five lead roles scheduled for 2016.
BEST
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. David Oyelowo – A United Kingdom – The actor who was
snubbed for Selma is back with a
couple really strong roles in 2016, chief of which is playing a Botswana prince
who marries a white woman in the 1940s. He also has Queen of Katwe with Lupita Nyong’o, so he will certainly be in the
running and probably capitalize on the diversity controversy within the
Academy.
2. Michael Keaton – The Founder – He was somehow ignored
all year for Spotlight, so maybe the
next year they will put him back in the race. Playing in a true story by John
Lee Hancock is about as awards-begging as any role.
3. Woody Harrelson – LBJ – I hope this happens. He plays
the title character in Rob Reiner’s film. It sounds like the perfect casting.
4. Joe Alwyn – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – He
plays the title character in Ang Lee’s Oscar frontrunner. That does not always
lead to nominations, especially for first-time actors, but this is just a
hunch.
5. Liam Neeson – Silence – Whether he is lead or
supporting, I have to think that Scorsese can return him to form and return him
to the Oscars for the first time since Schindler’s
List. It was previously supposed to be Daniel Day-Lewis, so we know there
is a lot to chew on.
Others in contention
6. Chris Pratt – Passengers – He plays opposite
Jennifer Lawrence in the Tyldum sci-fi film. He has yet to make waves as an
actor, but this promises to be his first step into critical acting.
7. Logan Lerman – Indignation – If the movie really is
this year’s An Education as I suspect
it could be, then he could easily own the movie and secure a rare young actor
nomination in this category.
8. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge – He has this Mel
Gibson movie as well as Scorsese’s Silence.
In Hacksaw Ridge, he plays a medic
who refuses to kill and causes waves of controversy and notoriety. Garfield can
own a role like this.
9. Tom Hanks – Sully – He plays the title character
in the Eastwood movie. Even in Clint’s weaker films, he still does wonders for
his actors. He can take Hanks back to the ceremony without too much trouble.
10. Warren Beatty – Untitled Howard Hughes Film – If the
movie really is released, he will be a threat for sure. Whenever he is in
complete control of a film, it is usually a major Oscar player.
11. Colin Firth – Untitled Donald Cowhurst Film – He
is playing Cowurst, a man who attempted to win a 1968 globe-spanning yacht
race. It is directed by The Theory of
Everything director James Marsh. It sounds like a potential awards magnet.
12. Joel Edgarton – Loving – The movie is going to be
one of the ones that should be remembered in the year’s end, but it just
depends on how similar it is to A United
Kingdom. Edgarton is ready for a nomination. He was deeply underrated last
year in Black Mass.
13. Miles Teller – Bleed for This – He plays in a true
boxing story of a World Champion trying to make a comeback after a nearly
deadly car accident. He should have won gold for Whiplash, but he was not nominated. Boxing might be the easiest
route for him to get invited to the show.
14. Ryan Gosling – La La Land – He has somehow been
really underrated by awards circuits, despite always giving strong work. Damien
Chazelle’s film should give him a lot of room to show off his physicality,
which is always underrated in his roles.
15.
Brad Pitt – War Machine – Michod should direct
Pitt to do things that he has never done before, which is always welcome for
such a public figure. He is rarely singled out in a cast, but if he really is
the lead in this one, he should be able to take over the screen.
16. Michael Fassbender – The Light Between Oceans – Fresh off
a nomination for Steve Jobs,
Fassbender is becoming one of the most reliable actors in the business. Derek
Cianfrance should give him room to really show off his dramatic talents.
17. Oscar Isaac – The Promise – It seems pretty
strange that he isn’t a nominee yet. He is maybe the best actor in the world
currently, and he is ridiculously consistent. James Ponsoldt could be his
ticket to the ceremony. Wow…Star Wars
made a strong appearance on these predictions.
18. Matthew McConaughey – Gold / Free State of Jones – The previous is a Stephen Gaghan film
about searching for gold in Indonesia, and the latter is a Gary Ross Civil War
film that looks terrific. He really has been on fire since his win for Dallas Buyers Club, so I would not be
shocked if he gets singled out this year once again.
19. Matt Damon – The Great Wall – He just got
nominated for The Martian, and this
seems like much more of an Oscar-friendly movie than that was. He also has the
new Bourne film coming out, so he
will remain in our minds throughout the year.
20. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals / Demolition – The former seems like a pretty safe Oscar movie,
and the latter looks a bit weird, but it would be unwise to bet against a
Jean-Marc Vallee movie any time soon. He still only has that one nomination 11
years ago. Weird…
21. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Snowden – I am do not have complete
faith in this movie, but Joseph Gordon-Levitt is one of the most consistent
actors out there and one of the best to not have an Oscar nom. Whether he can
carry a film is debatable, but Oliver Stone really pushes his actors out of
their comfort zone. We might be far enough removed from Citizenfour for the Academy to accept another take on the story.
BEST
DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – He
has won twice, but he can approach rarified air by winning a third. How crazy
would it be if he did win for a third time and have none of them won Best
Picture?
2. Martin Scorsese – Silence – Scorsese gets
Picture-Director nominations for all of his movies nowadays, and his passion
piece that he has been working on on-and-off since 1991 should be no different.
3. Damien Chazelle – La La Land – His previous film got
nominated everywhere except in this category. The Academy loves their musicals,
so if it is a good one, this nomination should come without too much trouble.
4. JA Bayona – A Monster Calls – He is one of the
borderline rising stars in the industry. His directions are complex, even when
the material may not be. His fantasy film will give him the platform to show
off what he can really do.
5. Yimou Zhang – The Great Wall – Zhang has not been
nominated, but his films color the arts and techs categories consistently. This
film will be his stepping stone into the major categories.
Others in contention
6. John Lee Hancock – The Founder – He is not all that
talented of a director, but the voters love his movies. He directed The Blind Side to a Best Picture
nomination for crying out loud.
7. David Michod – War Machine – Michod has a real
style about him, but this movie will require him to scale back the darkness, it
appears. That can work wonders for the right director.
8. Warren Beatty – Untitled Howard Hughes Film – Even
if the film is not as good as it could be, his direction could still find a way
to sneak in. He is somewhat of a living legend making, presumably, his swan
song film.
9. Jeff Nichols – Loving / Midnight Special – If one of these movies hits, then I would
not be surprised at all if the Academy recognized him. His films have been
knocking at the door, but none of them have broken through just yet.
10.
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge – He is a previous
winner, so we have to pay attention. It probably won’t be the best movie, but
there is probably a portion of the Academy that is itching to validate them
giving
Braveheart Best Picture
21 years ago.
11. Niki Caro – The Zookeeper’s Wife – She is not
the most consistent director, but this is very Academy-friendly material she is
working with. The Whale Rider was an
underrated showcase of what kind of talent she has.
12. Robert Zemeckis – Untitled WWII Film – He has only
really broken through for his Best Picture-winning Forrest Gump, but he is capable of making great films. Brad Pitt
and Marion Cotillard being his leads will undoubtedly help his cause and make
his film look better than it probably ought to.
13. Jacques Audiard – Dheepan – Audiard is a very talented
director, and given the fact that his film took Cannes in 2015, it is
definitely possible that he can take American audiences the way he took
festival members. His film A Prophet
was one of the more beloved foreign films of the last 10 years.
14. Clint Eastwood – Sully – His last film was only
nominated for Best Picture, but that broke a five film nomination-less streak
for him. This seems absurdly Oscary, but that might work against him. Invictus, Hereafter, and even Jersey
Joys were largely forgotten or ignored by year’s end.
15. Amma Asante – A United Kingdom – The performances
will likely highlight the film, but only sometimes do great actors carry the
director to nominations. The Belle
director will likely put her stamp on the film and dress it up nicely, though.
16. Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals – The movie is
more of a thriller, so, depending on how much fashion spin Ford puts on it, he
could be one of the ones to watch in the category.
17. Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans – He
probably doesn’t stand too much of a chance unless the movie is a real
gut-wrenching can’t-miss. He proved with The
Place Beyond the Pines that he is capable of something more than
minimalism.
18. Terry George – The Promise – I hold out hope for
this film, as foolish as that may be. George can really bring audiences to
their feet, and he has the cast and writing partner (Benjamin Button’s Robin Swicord) to make this movie really work.
19. Terrence Malick – Knight of Cups / Voyage of Time / Untitled
Music Film – He has maybe three or maybe no movies coming out this
year. Who knows, honestly? His last film was ignored, but the one before was
nominated in all relevant categories and won Cannes. If I were smart, I would
bet on the unlikely with Malick. That is probably him getting a Best Director
nom for his documentary Voyage of Time
and Brad Pitt getting a Best Actor nom for being his narrator.
BEST
PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)
1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee) – It has all the
makings of an Oscar juggernaut. I will be shocked if this movie isn’t one we
are talking about in 12 months.
2. The Founder (John Lee Hancock) – This is a very safe bet to be
in the running, but then again I thought Saving
Mr. Banks would have been too. Hancock is sort of a hack, but I have to
have one safe bet.
3. Silence (Martin Scorsese) – This movie to me seems like it is
more Scorsese tapping into his Last
Temptation of Christ category rather than his more Oscar friendly movies,
but he can really put out anything and voters will flock to his support.
4. The Great Wall (Yimou Zhang) – Zhang’s movies are so popular.
If he had made a couple of his previous features in America, then I guarantee
that he would have already broken into this category. He has much more pedigree
at this point than say Chan-wook Park had before he made Snowpiercer.
5. La La Land (Damien Chazelle) – The movie does sound goofy and
light, but I am sure The Artist did
too before it premiered at Cannes. Plus, this is made by a previous nominee. I
have to think that Chazelle making a rare original material musical will be
anointed.
6. War Machine (David Michod) – I overhyped The Rover a couple years ago, but I really think this one has a
much better chance at hitting in the States. I mean, Brad Pitt. Plan B. It’s
in.
7. Sully (Clint Eastwood) – The uplifting true story seems so
Oscar friendly that I feel like it is almost destined to fail, but Eastwood is
ridiculously consistent, despite what recent Academy voters have shown. I love
this movie’s chances.
8. A Monster Calls (JA Bayona) – This movie appears to be one
where the direction has a better shot at being nominated than the film itself,
but with the current rules, it is going to be difficult for there to be a split
like that again. Bennett Miller was obviously the exception.
9. A United Kingdom (Amma Asante) – There is always very British
film in the mix, and that absolutely appears to be this film in 2016. David
Oyelowo and company should be able to elevate this film to the top of the BAFTA
voting consciousness.
10. Untitled WWII Film (Robert Zemeckis) – It is the average
Academy voter’s favorite war and favorite subject (Nazis). Zemeckis is aching
for a real comeback. After The Walk,
let’s hope he has learned to dial back the CGI and make a more authentic film.
Others in contention
11. Loving (Jeff Nichols) – I can’t think that this and A United Kingdom will get in,
considering the similar subject matter, but it is possible. I would not be
surprised at all if they flip-flop spots once we see a couple trailers.
12. Untitled Howard Hughes Film (Warren Beatty) – Let’s just see if
this movie even comes out before overreacting too much.
13. Dheepan (Jacques Audiard) – Amour is the only foreign film to break into this category since
the new rules came out. Can Audiard follow suit with his Cannes winner?
14. The Zookeeper’s Wife (Niki Caro) – This is another case of the
Academy loving their Nazis. If we believe the seemingly bizarre story then this
could emerge as one of the favorites.
15. Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford) – Most would argue that this is
not a Best Picture worthy story, but let’s be honest…Mad Max: Fury Road was nominated. Anything is possible.
16.
The Light Between Oceans (Derek Cianfrance) – This movie needs
to really blow audiences away and start the season off right by getting
nominated in all relevant categories at the Spirit Awards in early December.
17. The Promise (Terry George) – I don’t know what else I can say
about this movie. Details are still pretty minimal, and I have not read one
word of hype on it yet. I hope it stays under the radar until its release.
18. Deepwater Horizon (Peter Berg) – It is a fairly high profile
project, but Berg kinda botched hyped projects Lone Survivor and The Kingdom.
But then again, they were widely beloved somehow. I just fear for the project
since Chandor stepped down as director.
19. Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson) – I would love for this to be great
and for it to be recognized, but my faith in the project is definitely subdued.
It sounds terrific, but Gibson is more than capable of screwing it up or making
it over-the-top.
20. Indignation (James Schamus) – Once again, this year’s
coming-of-age story that could very well be another case of Brooklyn or An Education, minus the British backing. It is going to need to be The Perks of Being a Wallflower and then
some. It has the potential. Let’s see if Schamus is as good of a director as he
is a writer.
That’s all I have! I love writing my first predictions article. It is
before any of these movies are heard from or sometimes even completed. Did I
miss anything? What is on your 2016 radar? Let me know!
