Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2018

Academy Award nominee Kobe Bryant…yeah that sounds weird. The nominations for the 90^th Annual Academy Awards came out this morning, and there were some surprises. There were not the typical shockers like Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, but there were some notable snubs, chief among them being the director of the frontrunner for Best Picture Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Check out my reactions to all of the categories below, as well as how my predictions did and my Top 10 Coolest First-time nominees (stacked list this year) and the Top 10 Biggest Snubs…enjoy!

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: Rounding out my top 10 predicted were The Big Sick, Mudbound, and The Florida Project. The big surprise here is Darkest Hour, which has been ignored for everything all season other than Gary Oldman’s eventual Oscar for Best Actor. Phantom Thread had issues with the screeners getting to voters in time, but it is good to know that the Academy at least took notice. Due to how the next category stacked up, we have maybe the most unpredictable and wide open race (probably 4 legitimate contenders for the top prize) that I can remember.

Preliminary prediction: Lady Bird

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

Jordan Peele – Get Out

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: The Golden Globe winner of the Best Picture frontrunner got snubbed for Best Director. This race was always going to be Guillermo del Toro anyway, but that shakes up things quite a bit. Three Billboards already is seeing the backlash to some viewers’ reservations about the how racism is handled in the movie. It took longer for people to turn on La La Land. Without a Directing nomination, chances are incredibly thin for Martin McDonagh’s film. Argo was able to overcome it, but that was a rarity. Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, and PTA…this category is amazing! I had Spielberg and McDonagh making the list in my predictions.

Preliminary prediction: Guillermo del Toro

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: The ill-timed sexual harassment allegations against James Franco took its toll. This is exactly what I expected to happen here. I always thought Franco was on the fringe anyway, and with the Phantom Thread screeners not making it to SAG voters in time, it makes sense that DDL would take his rightful place in this race in his “final” movie.

Preliminary prediction: Gary Oldman

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

Meryl Streep – The Post

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: There was really no other option here. It would have been awesome to see Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game, but when Streep is on the edge, she is always going to win out.

Preliminary prediction: Frances McDormand

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Armie Hammer over Harrelson. I actually think the double nomination for Three Billboards is detrimental to Rockwell’s chances. It really sucks for Armie Hammer. He deserved to be in there. Also, Michael Stuhlbarg was in three Best Picture nominees (first time since 2002 that has happened), but he was not rewarded with a nomination like John C. Reilly was 15 years ago.

Preliminary prediction: Willem Dafoe

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

Allison Janney – I, Tonya

Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Apparently Hong Chau’s film was hated enough to take her out of the running. I had her making it alongside Holly Hunter. This is an ok lineup. Manville is pretty much out of nowhere, but she should have gotten nominated for Mike Leigh’s Another Year in the past. Octavia Spencer could become the annual also-ran in this category. If Lady Bird is going to win Best Picture, then I think this will be where is will (rightly) be rewarded to give it another win.

Preliminary prediction: Laurie Metcalf

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Post making it, and I’m glad I’m wrong. But…who voted for The Post for Best Picture!? Obviously the SAG shutout implies that it wasn’t actors. The directors didn’t even nominate Spielberg. It got snubbed here, despite being a journalism movie written by an Oscar winner. They didn’t even nominate John Williams. Yet…5% somehow had it as their #1 of the year. Ridiculous…

Preliminary prediction: Lady Bird

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Logan

Molly’s Game

Mudbound

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Logan is now the first superhero movie to be nominated for its screenplay. I had All the Money in the World in my predictions for this category, the worst screenplay category I can remember. James Ivory is 90 and has never won an Oscar…this is his year.

Preliminary prediction: Call Me by Your Name

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: Rachel Morrison (Mudbound) becomes the first female DOP nominated for an Oscar. This has got to finally be the time for Roger Deakins…right?

Preliminary prediction: Blade Runner 2049

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Blade Runner 2049

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: These were pretty much the obvious nominees, mixing fantasy and period pieces.

Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria & Abdul

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I went more conventional with Murder on the Orient Express and The Greatest Showman, but I guess these period pieces are more Oscary. If The Shape of Water starts picking up awards like this, then we could be in for a sweep.

Preliminary prediction: Phantom Thread

BEST SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: These pretty much are the prestigious technical achievement films of the year…and Baby Driver, which is just an awesome movie.

Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST FILM EDITING

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Get Out getting snubbed here is detrimental to its Best Picture chances, and it was in favor of a joke of a nomination for I, Tonya. Lady Bird misses as well. Usually the Best Picture winner is also nominated here, but Birdman bucked the trend a few years ago. The new voting structure keeps everything wide open.

Preliminary prediction: Dunkirk

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Baby Driver is this year’s The Bourne Ultimatum. I had Wonder Woman (shut out, BTW) in over Blade Runner. These are probably the right nominees though. Usually a terrible action movie is mentioned here, but the voters had good action movies to play with.

Preliminary prediction: Dunkirk

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Best Picture nominees The Shape of Water and Dunkirk in there. With this group, it looks wide open. If they want to reward Star Wars for something, it might need to be here.

Preliminary prediction: War for the Planet of the Apes

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Darkest Hour

Victoria & Abdul

Wonder

Predicted: 2 for 3

Reactions: I had the more showy makeup work in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in there over the hairstyling work in the Dame Judi Dench film. This is Darkest Hour, easy.

Preliminary prediction: Darkest Hour

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“The Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name

“Remember Me” – Coco

“Stand Up for Something” – Marshall

“Mighty River” – Mudbound

“This is Me” – The Greatest Showman

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I predicted a couple documentaries to get their songs in there, which is usually how it goes. This is a more star packed group. Mary J. Blige, Oscar-winner Common, Diane Warren, the EGOT winning Robert and Kristen Lopez. I’ll go with Blige.

Preliminary prediction: “Mighty River”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Post in there. This category just further cements the strange snub of McDonagh for Director since the movie he created and oversaw got nominated in all of the important categories. The Shape of Water’s music just sounds like an Oscar winning score.

Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Faces Places

Incarus

Last Men in Aleppo

Strong Island

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had popular choices Jane and City of Ghosts getting nominated. I have not seen any of these, but Faces Places is the definite critical favorite, so for now…I’ll predict that.

Preliminary prediction: Faces Places

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman

The Insult

Loveless

On Body and Soul

The Square

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had the Golden Globe-winning In the Fade and Foxtrot getting nominated. This category is always impossible to predict the nominees. This seems like a good group though. The Cannes winner makes a rare appearance.

Preliminary prediction: A Fantastic Woman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: The new voting rules allowing every Academy member to vote on this category means we get more The Boss Baby and less Mary and the Witch’s Flower. Kobe Bryant’s Dear Basketball was nominated for Best Animated Short…which is awesome. Coco takes this in a walk.

Preliminary prediction: Coco

Overall predictions: 83/107; 77.57% (74.77% in 2017)

Without the last 5 categories: 66/82; 80.49% (78.05% in 2017)

On the Big 8 categories: 35/44; 77.77% (83.72% in 2017)

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Sam Rockwell

2. Jordan Peele

3. Greta Gerwig

4. Kobe Bryant

5. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon

6. Mary J. Blige

7. Timothee Chalamet

8. Allison Janney

9. Daniel Kaluuya

10. Margot Robbie

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Martin McDonagh for Best Director

2. Armie Hammer for Best Supporting Actor

3. Get Out for Best Editing

4. Blade Runner 2049 for Original Score

5. The Killing of a Sacred Deer for Best Cinematography

6. Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Supporting Actor

7. Luca Guadagnino for Best Director

8. James Franco for Best Actor

9. Wonder Woman for all technical categories

10. Jessica Chastain for Best Actress

Stay tuned for our 10th Annual Oscar Challenge!

2018 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

The Oscar nominations are coming up on January 23^rd! This means it is time for my final predictions in all categories. This year has a lot of factors that keep the race up in the air, particularly the #MeToo movement, lingering #OscarsSoWhite frustrations, a horror-comedy in the forefront of the Oscar race, as well as backlash to the perceived frontrunner in the major categories Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Nothing this year is set in stone, except for the fact that The Shape of Water is going to make a run at a record 15 nominations. Read up on the major categories, as well as my ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL CATEGORIES PREDICTIONS, which also includes my predicted nominations count for each movie!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory – Adapted Screenplay is incredibly weak this year, but this is a beautiful script by a 3 time nominee who is probably making his last film. It is his time.

2. Mudbound – Dee Rees, Virgil Williams – The screenplay was actually quite rich, and if the movie gets rewarded somewhere, it will probably be in this category.

3. Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin – The screenplay is vintage Sorkin. He has won once, but nominations are not always guaranteed. I put him third in case he gets another snub like he got for Steve Jobs.

4. The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber – The movie has its moments, and this writing duo has had some gems, but they are always ignored. This seems like the time for their first nomination.

5. All the Money in the World – David Scarpa – The movie has won the publicity vote, which could carry with it a couple nominations that aren’t necessarily deserved. This is a stab in the dark, but I can see it happening.

Others in contention

6. Wonder – Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne – The movie has had a nice box office, but this nomination would seem a little bizarre. Several people are predicting it, but my gut is that it gets the shaft.

7. The Beguiled – Sofia Coppola – The movie seems forgotten by most of the awards, but it was a Cannes darling, and Coppola is a past winner. This could surprise and pop in up a couple places.

8. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool – Matt Greenhalgh – The movie got a big time boost from the BAFTA nominations, but it will all depend on if any Americans actually saw it prior to voting.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig – If Gerwig is going to be rewarded, and I hope she is, it will be in this category.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh – It is probably the frontrunner on paper, but the backlash can take its toll. McDonagh will have to wait another year before his first win.

3. Get Out – Jordan Peele – Peele is a definite threat to take this award. It is the most creative and daring screenplay of the year. If he wins here, then it has a real shot at Best Picture, regardless if he gets a Director nom or not.

4. The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – Del Toro’s film will be nominated basically everywhere it is eligible. This is an easy prediction.

5. The Post – Liz Hannah, Josh Singer – This fifth spot is really interesting. I suspect that The Post will play well with Academy voters and will sneak in over much more accomplished films and screenwriters.

Others in contention

6. The Big Sick – Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon – It would be sad if it gets snubbed, but it just seems like a foregone conclusion, especially after the Globes debacle.

7. I, Tonya – Steven Rogers – The WGA nomination was a boost, but the movie will be an acting contender at the Oscars only.

8. Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson – He is typically nominated every time in the writing categories, but the movie seems very understated. However, if he gets in, I will not be shocked at all. He was even nominated for Inherent Vice.

9. Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan – He is another consistent contender in these categories, but the movie lacks significant dialogue, which could play against its chances.

10. The Florida Project – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch – Sadly, the movie is not making as strong of a push at the awards circuits as it could have. If it shows up here, then we could be looking at a Best Picture nom as well.

11. Coco – Lee Unkrich, Jason Katz, Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina – Pixar is always in contention. Even though this is not being talked about by many, the acclaim is almost universal and can ride the Pixar wave all the way to the ceremony.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya – She has the showiest role, not to mention mom role, in the category. The veteran actor gets her first overdue nom/win.

2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird – She is probably the more deserving contender, but she is less of a film actress than Janney. She is an easy nominee, but unfortunately she’ll probably come up just short.

3. Hong Chau – Downsizing – She has all the right precursors, and while the movie is not well received at all, she gets in on her beautiful and heartfelt performance.

4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound – She also has a song in the running. If the Academy gets over their Netflix bias, then she should coast to a nomination here.

5. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick – While she has been overlooked by some, the SAG nod secures her nomination.

Others in contention

6. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water – Her part was so small that I feel like she gets left off, just barely. She doesn’t need a third nomination already.

7. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread – The BAFTA nomination and supposedly still lingering snub for Another Year has her as a dark horse in the category.

8. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip – If the Academy wants to throw in a wildcard, then this performance is it. They nominated a similar type role for Melissa McCarthy, and Haddish did win over the NYFCC in her memorable victory speech.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – He has taken the precursors thus far, and he has never been nominated before. He finally has his chance.

2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project – The veteran actor just unfortunately is stuck in a movie that is being largely forgotten otherwise. He is this year’s Sylvester Stallone in Creed.

3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water – His performance is not flashy, but he has good lines and is quirky enough to get swept in with the love for the film.

4. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World – Plummer was put in an impossible situation and won everyone over. His efforts and goodwill get him the film’s lone nomination.

5. Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name – The SAG snub was discouraging, but in the end, I find it hard to think that he won’t be mentioned on nomination morning. He was every bit as good as Chalamet.

Others in contention

6. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name – He has one great speech, plus he has two other Best Picture contenders. He could get the John C. Reilly nomination if the Academy loves the movie more than SAG.

7. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – The SAG nomination was a boost, but I think/hope that the voters will gravitate toward Rockwell before Harrelson.

8. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes – He is a dark horse. The SAG and Globe nominations are key, but the movie is forgotten otherwise.

9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound – He has been ignored unjustly throughout the process. If the Academy is ok with Netflix this year, then he could pop in out of nowhere.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – The past winner will take home her second trophy for her furious performance in the Best Picture contender.

2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird – Ronan is becoming a contender every year, and if there is an upset of McDormand, it will be from her. If she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.

3. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya – She has a complete transformation in the film, which is always looked on fondly by voters. She’ll have to wait for a win, but her first nomination is guaranteed.

4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water – This is another easy nomination in the Best Picture contender. Her second nomination will be less of a surprise, and if she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.

5. Meryl Streep – The Post – There are other worthy performances, but predicting she will get snubbed hasn’t worked since 2004.

Others in contention

6. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game – She is the true deserving winner, but I fear that the Academy will not love the movie as much as they should.

7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul – She has the important precursors, and she is Dame Judi Dench, but don’t even know a single person who saw or wanted to see this movie. It gets left off in every category.

8. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes – It might be her best performance, but the movie does kinda suck, and it underperformed at the box office and in the precursors. And she just won, so a snub here is understandable.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour – With the wins so far, unless he gets beat at SAG, he will finally pick up his first trophy for his transformation into Winston Churchill.

2. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name – He gave the best performance by anyone in 2017, but the Academy will see it as more of a breakout role than anything else. I have him winning next year in my 2019 PREDICTIONS.

3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread – The nomination is looking more and more likely, and as more people see the film, perhaps they will send him a parting gift and record-tying 4^th win.

4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out – He has hit every precursor; he is getting nominated. But there’s no chance he can win.

5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. – The movie has been forgotten and was sort of a flop. But there are probably still a lot of voters who feel bad for not giving him the win last year. He takes the fifth spot.

Others in contention

6. James Franco – The Disaster Artist – The sexual harassment allegations are looming, and despite how awesome he was and having won at the Globes and Critics Choice, I fear an unjust snub here.

7. Tom Hanks – The Post – He hasn’t been nominated in forever. If he shows up here, then we have to look at The Post as a real BP contender.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Harry Dean Stanton - Lucky

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water – He has won the big ones so far, and his movie is looking at a record amount of nominations if things go right. It would be hard to deny him an award here.

2. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – His movie is in the driver’s seat, and it is his finest work yet. But he is up against a juggernaut.

3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird – The DGA nomination secured this nomination. It would be so cool if she somehow wins the thing.

4. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk – Nolan finally has a movie that appeals to all voters, and the vast amount of technical nominations should be enough for him to get his first nom.

5. Steven Spielberg – The Post – He always defies the odds and gets nominated whether he deserves it or not. He has lost his touch…too bad the Academy can’t see that.

Others in contention

6. Jordan Peele – Get Out – Unfortunately, that leaves off Peele, which would likely be detrimental to the film’s Best Picture chances. I hope I’m wrong on this.

7. Dee Rees – Mudbound – My preseason pick to win the category is looking less likely, but if the Academy can get over the streaming thing, then her searing drama could lift her to a nomination.

8. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name – This would be the equivalent to Lenny Abrahamson in 2015 getting in, which no one is really expecting, but the Academy might really take to the film and carry him in with the love.

9. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World – How he handled the Kevin Spacey ordeal might be an overwhelming factor that could boost him into the conversation, much like it was at the Globes. It is hard to predict that, but I wouldn’t doubt it.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 7 will get nominated)

1. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) – It is good enough, and no one dislikes it. In the current era and voting structure of the Academy, that is all that is required to win.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) – It has the backlash, which makes it just divisive enough to take away its award that it so richly deserves.

3. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro) – It will be nominated everywhere, but that is not enough to take this award home. It is this year’s Benjamin Button.

4. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) – The movie will be put on this list for its craftsmanship more than anything else, which will play well with the old Oscar voters.

5. Get Out (Jordan Peele) – Everything points to this movie being nominated, and because there really isn’t anyone who will have it lower than maybe 3 or 4 on their ballot, I would watch out for a shocker win here.

6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) – The movie is old fashioned and will be a hit with the older voters. Spielberg is always in contention, even for his garbage like Bridge of Spies and War Horse.

7. Mudbound (Dee Rees) – Netflix finally gets its first nomination. The PGA snub was discouraging, but it overcomes it.

8. The Big Sick (Michael Showalter) – I fear that the film will just not have enough 1^st place votes to get in. Everyone likes it, but no one has it #1. The SAG ensemble nomination is interesting, however…

9. The Florida Project (Sean Baker) – The movie has its fans, but A24 did not do a great campaign, and not enough voters saw it.

10. Call Me by Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) – It should be up there, but the subject matter and lack of real star power will bring it down a notch and leave it just on the outside.

Others in contention

11. I, Tonya (Craig Gillespie) – The film has been a hit, and the PGA nomination was a legitimate boost. It could surprise if there are 8 or 9 nominees.

12. Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin) – The PGA put it on their list, which was encouraging. It is a great film, but even I admit that a Best Picture nomination would be a little bizarre.

13. Wonder Woman (Patty Jenkins) – There seems to always be a blockbuster movie in the PGA lineup that has no chance (The Hangover, Bridesmaids, etc.), but this feels different. Keep an eye out here…

That’s all for the major categories! What are your predictions? Comment below! Also, check out my ARTS AND TECHS PREDICTIONS, which also features my predicted nominations count for each film mentioned!