BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Predicted: 8 for 10
Reactions: I had Babylon and The Whale, which both performed well, but instead we got Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness, neither of which were nominated below-the-line. Interesting group here. Jerry Bruckheimer is an Oscar nominee. Tom Cruise gets his first nomination since 1999. All of the real major players got in. It isn’t too shocking. In some ways Women Talking reminds me of Selma, where it was absolutely dead and no one saw it, but it somehow sneaks in anyway with just one other nomination. With the way EEAAO performed overall, it is the frontrunner, but Banshees and Tár got in everywhere it needed to.
Preliminary prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Dwan, Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Todd Field - Tár
Ruben Ostlund - Triangle of Sadness
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I stuckto my guns and had Edward Berger getting nominated for All Quiet, which is a snub at this point and makes very little sense. I missed Ruben Ostlund, who I had jumbled in with a few other foreign directors in line for the 5th spot. It is a strong showing for a pretty terrible movie, but it makes sense given the sensibilities of the Academy. All the major players are here. I don’t think the Daniels can win this, but I really don’t know.
Preliminary prediction: Steven Spielberg
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler - Elvis
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal - Aftersun
Bill Nighy - Living
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: At least I nailed this category! The only one in question was Mescal, but the alternatives were just too weak. This is the first time all the nominees in this category are first-time nominees in a long, long time. This is a 3 actor race between Butler, Fraser, and Farrell, all of whom have their arguments and wins so far this season.
Preliminary prediction: Brendan Fraser
BEST ACTRESS
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Yikes, here we have some drama! I had Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis in, both of which I am disgusted that they missed. Michelle Williams I had getting category-frauded out of a nomination, and then…Riseborough. Wow…one of the smallest movies to get in at the Oscars, and her campaign really didn’t start until a few weeks ago when everyone started tweeting about her. It just shows how this game works sometimes. Till had no campaign and no exposure, it was running on its merit. To Leslie is a fine film with a great performance, but those never make it in when they are that small. It is an astonishing pull by the Academy.
Preliminary prediction: Cate Blanchett
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Paul Dano in, who missed yet again for a major Oscar player. I do not get the resistance toward nominating one of our true great method actors. Brian Tyree Henry is one of those actors who is in a spot where John C Reilly was in 2002. He is in absolutely everything and had one really good performance, and he rides it all the way. It is a small movie, a subtle role, and I can’t believe he made it work. Congrats! We all knew Eddie Redmayne was going to miss…
Preliminary prediction: Ke Huy Quan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau - The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Dolly de Leon getting in over Hsu, which makes even less sense that she missed when the movie got a Picture nom…but whatever. We have the first MCU acting nomination. JLC gets her first nomination for the weirdest role imaginable. I have no idea what happens here. Conventional wisdom says go with the veteran actor and past nominee, but the comparison of Condon to Tilda Swinton in 2007 is too strong.
Preliminary prediction: Kerry Condon
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness
Tár
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: This was a pretty easy category to navigate. Triangle was the only question mark, but now it seems like that was a lock too. This will be very telling very early at the Oscars where we stand for Best Picture. All four viable contenders are in this category.
Preliminary prediction: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Living
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Women Talking
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Top Gun gets an insanely strong nomination here, showing the love for the film in a way that reminds me of when Logan popped up here. I had The Whale getting in over that, which I feel dumb for now considering I made the point all year (and every year) that the Academy hates screenplays based on plays. This category is wide open. I tend to think since Women Talking got the Picture nom (and only that), then it has to be love for the screenplay. This is impossible to predict…
Preliminary prediction: Living
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Empire of Light
Tár
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: Yikes…my top 3 choices all missed. I had The Fabelmans, Avatar, and Top Gun: Maverick in over Elvis, Bardo, and Tár. Top Gun was the favorite. It has won absolutely everything from every voting body, even though it is not really Oscar-type cinematography, it makes no sense to snub it here. This is a peculiar and strong nomination for Tár. This category can suddenly go any direction.
Preliminary prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Here I had All Quiet missing in favor of Black Panther. This is a typical list of all period/fantasy films. I’m not really sure what to make of this. Can All Quiet just win all of these awards? It is very possible.
Preliminary prediction: Babylon
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed EEAAO in favor of The Fabelmans. That is an unusual modern nomination in this category, but I guess that is cool to see. I don’t know how to evaluate this.
Preliminary prediction: Babylon
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Batman
Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: This is a sneaky miss by EEAAO. Usually, the eventual Best Picture winner randomly pops up here, so that shows a bit of a disconnect. It had a chance to really put in for a crazy sweep. I missed The Batman, which I don’t feel horrible about. It is not typical Oscar stuff, but I like to see it!
Preliminary prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST FILM EDITING
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
Tár
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Tár missing in favor of Babylon. They really didn’t take any of the excessively long movies, which says something. That is an interesting nomination for Tár. The strength of that movie is really coming on. This category has been 100% linked to Best Sound in recent years, so the obvious and deserving winner is…
Preliminary prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
The Batman
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Here I missed The Batman and All Quiet in favor of Doctor Strange and Nope (which got shut out). I underestimated their love of the visuals in war films. I should have known better after 1917. This category is over before it starts.
Preliminary prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Batman
The Whale
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I don’t think I have ever aced this category before. They are all very showy makeup jobs, and the movies all seemed to overperform relative to expectations. This could be an interesting race if they look past the fat suit.
Preliminary prediction: The Whale
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lift Me Up” - Black PAnther: Wakanda Forever
“This Is a Life” - Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Naatu Naatu” - RRR
“Applause” - Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” - Top Gun: MAverick
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed the song from EEAAO in favor of the song from Till (shut out). I can only think of the song from RRR. None of these are classics, and the Diane Warren song no one has ever heard (or seen the movie). Some of the fun random nominees here are David Byrne, Rihanna, Lady Gaga and Bloodpop, and Ryan Coogler.
Preliminary prediction: RRR
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: This is a real shocking miss for Pinocchio, which got in almost nowhere we thought it would. I also missed Women Talking, which is a horrible snub. I overlooked All Quiet (really hedged my bets there, it seems) and EEAAO. John Williams is 90 years old and he’s still rocking it.
Preliminary prediction: Babylon
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
A House Made of Splinters
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Navalny
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed Navalny in favor of Descendant, which I thought was secure with its Higher Ground backing. All the “experts” were predicting snubs here, but the current Academy is way different than it was even 5 years ago.
Preliminary prediction: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed The Quiet Girl (although after its BAFTA screenplay nom, I should have known better) and Close in favor of Bardo and Decision to Leave. That is a brutal oversight by the Academy. Chan-wook Park’s film was being looked at for above-the-line nominations too, and he can’t even get in here. That’s rough. This one is easy to predict, though.
Preliminary prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guiller,o del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed The Sea Beast (people remember that movie?) and Marcel the Shell (not animated) in favor of My Father’s Dragon and Inu-Oh. I don’t feel bad about this. Nobody predicted this right.
Preliminary prediction: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Overall predictions: 80/105; 76.19% (70.5% in 2022)
Without the last 5 categories: 63/80; 78.75% (76.9% in 2022)
On the Big 8 categories: 37/45; 82.22% (81.4% in 2022)
Wow, that was one of my better showings! Cinematography was my only real disastrous category, getting just 2 of the 5, but over 75% across all categories…I’m happy!
10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell
2. Brian Tyree Henry
3. Brendan Gleeson
4. Brendah Fraser
5. Michelle Yeoh
6. Barry Keoghan
7. Rihanna
8. Jamie Lee Curtis
9. Bill Nighy
10. Jerry Bruckheimer
10 WORST SNUBS
1. Top Gun: Maverick for Best Cinematography
2. Edward Berger for Best Director
3. Danielle Deadwyler for Best Actress
4. The Woman King in all categories (especially Best Actress)
5. Women Talking for Best Original Score
6. Retrograde for Best Documentary Feature
7. Paul Dano for Best Supporting Actor (The Batman and The Fabelmans)
8. Eddie Redmayne for Best Supporting Actor
9. The cast of Women Talking for Best Supporting Actress
10. Crimes of the Future for Best Makeup
IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES…
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Fabelmans
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Tár
5. Top Gun: Maverick
That’s all I got! How did everyone do in their predictions this year? What are your biggest snubs? Who are your favorite first-time nominees? What is winning Best Picture? Comment below and discuss! And as always…stay tuned for our 15th Annual Oscar Challenge!
