We finally have the Oscar nominations! There were plenty of surprises, snubs, encouraging nominations, and absolute head-scratchers. We had TEN first-time nominees in the acting categories alone! They usually don’t care about spreading the wealth, but here we are. Check out my reactions below, along with my coolest first-time nominees, stats, and other content. Enjoy!
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Predicted: 10 for 10
Reactions: This was the most obvious Best Picture lineup since 2010. There really weren’t any other contenders that were strong enough to break through, especially when seeing what happened in the other nominations. This is a pretty strong list, whether you like the films nominated or not, these are all films with a lot of fans and passion behind them.
Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer
BEST DIRECTOR
Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Here, we have one American director, which is becoming more and more the Academy thing to do. At what point do we start separating this out and having a Best Foreign Director and Best American Director? Just a thought. I had Greta Gerwig getting the fifth spot, but the Academy went with the foreign female director to satisfy that spot. This really shows the strength of Anatomy of a Fall too, which got in everywhere it needed to. And it is also curtains for Barbie’s Best Picture chances. Yorgos Lanthimos is now one of the most bankable Oscar directors in the world. I had him missing for previous Oscar favorite Alexander Payne.
Preliminary prediction: Christopher Nolan
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: There really isn’t much to say here, this was the pretty much consensus five after Leonardo DiCaprio missed the SAG and BAFTA lineups. This is a cool list, and like last year, we really don’t know where this category is going. We will see at SAG what we are looking at for sure, but this is pretty wide open (at least between 3 of the contenders).
Preliminary prediction: Bradley Cooper
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening - Nyad
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I stuck with Nyad after all the ups and downs of that campaign. Don’t underestimate the power of Netflix. Bening is still one of the best actresses in the world without an Oscar win. Greta Lee was always wishful thinking, and of course Margot Robbie didn’t really give an Oscar friendly performance. That was one of my most confident snub predictions since I first saw the movie. This is an open race after Gladstone got snubbed by BAFTA.
Preliminary prediction: Emma Stone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I swapped Mark Ruffalo for Willem Dafoe. Other than that, this was the SAG top five. Sterling K. Brown is a truly puzzling nomination (I had him out for my long shot pick Peter Sarsgaard). Brown is, along with the likes of J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos, one of the most nondescript acting nominations since I have been following. He is a beloved actor, though, so it is not entirely surprising; the TV actors are getting nominated by the Academy more and more. Robert De Niro now has the longest time between first and last nominations (clearing Katharine Hepburn by three years…and now Jodie Foster by two years). This category seems like it is pretty much over, but it is a pretty amazing group of actors. Gosling takes the reins from Ke Huy Quan as the strangest nominee in category history. Don’t ever act like comedy is not in the Academy taste anymore.
Preliminary prediction: Robert Downey Jr.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
America Ferrera - Barbie
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had America Ferrera as a nominee for the longest time! I couldn’t predict her after the SAG snub, though. I am happy for her, she had the Oscar scene the same way Downey did in the previous category. I had Julianne Moore taking her place. Emily Blunt is the weak link in her movie, but she had never been nominated despite tons of precursors over the years, so I am happy for her as well. I can’t hate this category too much.
Preliminary prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I stuck with Air until the end, and I missed Maestro. It is just not fun to predict biopics for screenplay nominations. This category is wide open with Barbie switching to its rightful place in Adapted Screenplay. I have to lean with the Globe winner here.
Preliminary prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Against my better judgment, I had Killers of the Flower Moon still getting in over The Zone of Interest and its late surge BAFTA nomination. For one of the first times in a long time, any one of these movies can win in this category. I think the most unique nominee of them will rise above to take it.
Preliminary prediction: American Fiction
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I knew I should have had Maestro! The industry loves that movie way more than critics and audiences. I had The Zone of Interest taking its spot. Also, note to the filmmakers: make your movie black and white, and you will get an Oscar nomination.
Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: Nothing to see here. This was the most obvious top five of any category.
Preliminary prediction: Barbie
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Wow, Oppenheimer...the Academy doesn’t usually go for basic suits for the costume category. I will say I enjoyed the birthday ones! This category is so dumb, and it matches Production Design perfectly. I had Wonka (shut out) and The Color Purple (one nom) in over Oppenheimer and Napoleon. Ok…
Preliminary prediction: Barbie
BEST SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon in for Mission: Impossible (first ever nomination for the franchise) and The Creator. It is interesting how they vote on this category now. This year, it was clearly the flashy sound work and action movies, when sometimes it leans more in the old Sound Mixing tendencies. I still haven’t entirely figured out how to predict the single sound category.
Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer
BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Maestro and Barbie in for Anatomy of a Fall and Poor Things. This is a weird category. A couple of them are legitimately bad editing, and the others are the ones that are 3+ hours and The Holdovers. Barbie missing here is a strange omission.
Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Society of the Snow and Poor Things in for Napoleon and Mission: Impossible. This just proves that I had no idea how to predict some of these movies. Every spot I had them they missed, and every spot I had a snub, they got in. Such is the life of an Oscar prognosticator.
Preliminary prediction: Godzilla Minus One
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I went with an outside-the-box pick with The Last Voyage of the Demeter in favor of Oppenheimer. I don’t even know what makeup work there really was in that movie.
Preliminary prediction: Maestro
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“The Fire Inside” - Flamin' Hot
“I’m Just Ken” - Barbie
“It Never Went Away” - American Symphony
Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) - Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" - Barbie
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed the Flower Moon song in favor of the terrible Rustin song, and I had “Dance the Night” in over “Man or Muppet”...I mean…”I’m Just Ken” as the second Barbie song. The ovation for Diane Warren at the nomination announcement was crazy. Can she finally win one? Nope.
Preliminary prediction: “What Was I Made For?”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had American Fiction in there! That was one of my best stabs. I missed Poor Things in favor of The Zone of Interest. Having not seen the latter, I guess it just doesn’t have a lot of music in it. Maybe I would have gone another way had I known that. Congratulations John Williams on being still the oldest Oscar nominee (92 at the time of the upcoming ceremony).
Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: Ugh…I suck at this. I missed everything but Mariupol and Four Daughters in favor of Going to Mars, Beyond Utopia, and American Symphony. This category is always so weird. They hate celeb docs, and they hate archival footage…except when they don’t! I don’t know what to do here. I’ll stick with my pre-nomination prediction.
Preliminary prediction: Four Daughters
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I had The Taste of Things (like everyone else), Fallen Leaves, and Totem in over everything but Society of the Snow and Zone. They went without the French nominee when Anatomy of a Fall wasn’t selected, which is entertaining. I wasn’t really familiar with that Italian movie. Interesting group…I have some catching up to do.
Preliminary prediction: The Zone of Interest
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in over Robot Dreams, which I thought was just way too small to get in, but this voting branch is always a little quirky. This is actually a compelling race. There isn’t one film that was really beloved and got multiple nominations like we have seen in the past, so it is really anyone’s game.
Preliminary prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Overall predictions: 78/105; 74.29% (76.19% in 2023)
Without the last 5 categories: 63/80; 78.75% (78.75% in 2023)
On the Big 8 categories: 38/45; 84.44% (82.22% in 2023)
So, I did pretty much the same as last year, even with a few perfect categories. I really need to focus more on those throughout the year. Maybe I will start to include every category in my fall predictions… Still, it was not a bad showing from me!
10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES
1. Emily Blunt
2. Jeffrey Wright
3. Cillian Murphy
4. Lily Gladstone
5. America Ferrera
6. Sterling K. Brown
7. Peter Sohn
8. Danielle Brooks
9. Colman Domingo
10. Jared Hess (yes, the director of Napoleon Dynamite)
…also Robbie Robertson (RIP), Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Sandra Huller, Jonathan Glazer, Justine Triet, Celine Song, and ALMOST Seth Rogen
10 WORST SNUBS
1. Glenn Howerton for Best [Supporting] Actor
2. Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor
3. Rachel McAdams for Best Supporting Actress
4. The Iron Claw in all eligible categories
5. Teyana Taylor for Best Actress
6. John Wick: Chapter 4 for Best Cinematography
7. Society of the Snow for Best Visual Effects and Best Sound
8. Greta Lee for Best Actress
9. Renfield for Best Makeup/Hairstyling
10. Dominic Sessa for Best [Supporting] Actor
IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES…
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. American Fiction
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. Barbie
That’s all for today! Oscar nomination morning is always one of my favorite days of the year. Cheers!
Stay tuned for our 16th Annual Oscar Challenge!
