It’s that time of year again! I have my January Oscar predictions for the following year before this year’s nominations are even announced. You might as well be first if you are taking part in something as obsessive and preposterous as this exercise. Having said that, this is always fun to put together after hours of research on what is or might be coming out in the coming year. The industry strikes took a few more films off the schedule than normal, so this is a watered down list since most of the presumed favorites in the major categories are on my also-ran list below. Read up and take note of which films you have to look forward to as early as Sundance this month to potential limited Christmas releases in December!
Here is the yearly list of films that I have broken down in years past that could be released this year and be Oscar players. For purposes of not being repetitive, they will not be part of my articles until I know for sure that they are coming out in 2024:
The Actor (Duke Johnson)
The Bikeriders (Jeff Nichols)
Blitz (Steve McQueen)
Brothers (Max Barbakow)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, 2nd straight year)
Challengers (Luca Guadagnino)
The Collaboration (Kwame Kwei-Armah)
Drive Away Dolls (Ethan Coen)
Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve)
The End (Joshua Oppenheimer)
Flint Strong (Rachel Morrison, 2nd straight year)
The Governesses (Joe Talbot)
Havoc (Gareth Evans)
Here (Robert Zemeckis)
Long Day's Journey Into Night (Jonathan Kent)
Love Lies Bleeding (Rose Glass)
Mother's Instinct (Benoit Delhomme)
Nosferatu (Robert Eggers)
One Life (James Hawes)
The Outrun (Nora Fingsheidt)
Rebel Ridge (Jeremy Saulnier)
Seacole (Charlie Stratton)
Shirley (John Ridley)
Spaceman (Johan Renck)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick, 5th straight year)
Without Blood (Angelina Jolie)
Young Woman and the Sea (Joachim Ronning)
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. Megalopolis (Francis Ford Coppola) - This is a passion project for Coppola, who has reportedly been planning this film since the early 80s and actually went into production in the early 2000s before scrapping it for 2 decades. It is an ambitious film with a huge cast about an architect who wants to rebuild New York City as a utopia. The Academy has been all about big swings lately, and Coppola hasn’t really made an Oscar relevant film in almost 3 decades. If they want to invite back one of the all time legends of the craft, this is their chance. There is no clear indication that it is truly coming out this year, but it is officially in post-production. That’s good enough for me.
2. Conclave (Edward Berger) - Following his surprise Oscar hit All Quiet on the Western Front, Berger has a film based on a book about a lead Cardinal trying to uncover a secret about the last Pope. The cast is interesting, and it is billed as a thriller, so it won’t be any niche The Two Popes type of inaccessible drama. Berger is still mostly unknown, but after his last film, he will be at the forefront of the Oscar conversation from now on, especially making an English language film like this one.
3. The History of Sound (Oliver Hermanus) - This film is a romance set during WWI, and two men who try to record the lives, voices, and music of people they come across. Hermanus had a surprise Oscar hit with Living back in 2022, and here he has another period piece with a hot young cast. It isn’t quite in production yet, but all my sources point to it being ready by the end of the year.
4. Sing Sing (Greg Kwedar) - Kwedar might be an unknown director, but this movie supposedly has the goods. A24 acquired the movie after absolute rave reviews (9.1 on IMDb is crazy). It is about a theater group who makes a play with people who have been incarcerated. The fact that they immediately announced that the movie was going to be held until the 2024 awards race means something, especially when it could have just been the year of Colman Domingo.
5. Horizon: An American Saga (Kevin Costner) - This is Costner’s first film in over 20 years, and it is about pre- and post-Civil War settlement in the west. After Yellowstone, Costner is back in public consciousness. It is strange that he wins Best Picture then only makes two films after that. It is supposedly a 4-part saga, and this comes out in June. It could be overblown or just bad, or it could be a Sergio Leone-level western epic. I lean with the latter.
6. The Piano Lesson (Malcolm Washington) - The son of Denzel Washington’s first film is an August Wilson adaptation about a family dealing with a family heirloom. The cast is strong, and even though directorial debuts need absolute unanimous appeal to break through to this extent, the backbone and pedigree involved will push this through.
7. Exhibiting Forgiveness (Titus Kaphar) - This movie will premiere at Sundance, so I am definitely rolling the dice here. It is the debut film by Kaphar, and it follows an artist whose career is derailed by his recovering addict father. The cast is extraordinary, and it seems now that at least one Sundance title withstands the year and breaks into awards season. I expect this to be that film.
8. The Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross) - This is the narrative feature debut by Oscar-nominated documentarian RaMell Ross (Hale County This Morning, This Evening), and it is based on a Pulitzer prize-winning book about an abusive reform school. It isn't necessarily a high profile project, but MGM is behind it. Expect a big awards season push for this and a full festival run.
9. Kind of Kindness (Yorgos Lanthimos) - There are no details released about the plot, but the cast is exquisite. Lanthimos, against all odds, has become an Academy favorite. All of his films are in contention. This was previously named “AND”, which would have been a much tougher sell.
10. We Live in Time (John Crowley) - The director of Brooklyn gets back to the Oscars here with another deeply moving love story. The plot details are minimal, but if it is treated with the authenticity and care of his last film, then expect another Oscar run.
Others in contention
11. Mickey 17 (Bong Joon-ho) - The long awaited next film from the Oscar sweeper in 2019 is a sci-fi drama. His last English language film was weird and a flop with Okja, but this is based on a novel and sounds really interesting. Sci-fi is always a tough sell at the Oscars, so I’ll be conservative and leave it just outside the predicted 10.
12. Alto Knights (Barry Levinson) - Past Oscar winner Levinson has not had a theatrically released film in almost 10 years, and here he gets a true story crime epic about a couple crime bosses at odds in the mid 1900s. It is set for a November release from Warner Brothers, so we can expect a serious awards push.
13. Joker: Folie a Deux (Todd Phillips) - The first one defied all odds and became the most nominated film of 2019. This is a musical thriller follow-up, and I feel like Phillips is just trolling us at this point. The plot is mostly kept under wraps, but Harley Quinn is part of it as a psychiatrist who starts an affair with Arthur Fleck. It sounds nuts.
14. Bird (Andrea Arnold) - Andrea Arnold typically isn’t the Academy’s speed, but that whole notion is changing constantly. There are no plot details for this film, but it stars Franz Rogowski (Passages) and Barry Keoghan. Sounds like a hit!
15. Juror #2 (Clint Eastwood) - Eastwood’s last big Oscar hit was 10 years ago, and this could be his last film. It is a courtroom drama that sounds a bit like 12 Angry Men, with one of the jurors in the middle of a moral dilemma. It doesn’t seem like typical Eastwood fare, but the Academy does adore the man.
16. Freaky Tales (Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck) - This is a Sundance film from the filmmaking pair who brought us Half Nelson. This is an interlocking story drama set in Oakland in 1987. It has been a while since we have had a really great one of these types of films, but this one feels like it could be different.
19. Back to Black (Sam Taylor-Johnson) - Taylor-Johnson isn’t typically an awards player, but she also made the pretty solid John Lennon biopic Nowhere Boy. Here, we get the life of Amy Winehouse, which will likely be a riveting and devastating portrayal. Can this be more Bohemian Rhapsody than Rocketman? We will find out in May.
20. On Swift Horses (Daniel Minahan) - Minahan is primarily a TV director (Deadwood most prominently), and this is a book adaptation about a young couple whose life is upended, leading to self-discovery. Details on the film are slight so far, but on paper, this is one of the more interesting projects I came across this year.
21. Echo Valley (Michael Pearce) - BAFTA winner Michael Pearce directs this film about a horse trainer who is thrust into a serious situation when her daughter comes home covered in blood. Sometimes these drama-thrillers really strike a chord with audiences, and this could be one of those films.
22. In the Blink of an Eye (Andrew Stanton) - Stanton’s last live action film was a huge flop, but here he is telling the history of the universe and human life. It is a huge undertaking, but the two-time Oscar winner has my attention whenever he puts his name on a film.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Francis Ford Coppola - Megalopolis - He has won 5 Oscars, but only one in this category. He is one of the greatest of all time, but it has been a while. He has had a few clunkers in a row, or ones that just never caught on. If he can pull this off, then he will absolutely be in the race. I see this as this year’s The Irishman, which means it could be a player in all categories above and below the line.
2. Edward Berger - Conclave - Berger was snubbed in 2022, so there is a makeup nomination in order here. Looking back on that race, that has got to be the confusing oversight in recent memory. Here, it will undoubtedly have less of a scope than All Quiet, but that shouldn’t stop a nomination here if the film is a true Best Picture contender.
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Kind of Kindness - Lanthimos is definitely in the club, and here we have yet another way for the visionary director to secure his first Oscar. There is no indication about what the film might be about, but him being at the helm is probably enough.
4. Greg Kwedar - Sing Sing - There is almost always a newcomer in the running, and this absolutely looks like the spot. If the early reviews are not fraudulent, then he will be the Celine Song of 2024. It is all about narrative and online movement, and from everything I heard out of Toronto, this will be the movie that is pushed throughout the year.
5. Kevin Costner - Horizon: An American Saga - After his win in the category in 1990, he made a flop, then he made mostly forgettable western. Here, he is given a seemingly infinite budget to make what appears to be his passion project. He is still beloved by audiences and in the industry, so if this is good and a Best Picture player, then his nomination will be considered a lock.
Others in contention
6. Oliver Hermanus - The History of Sound - Hermanus is a little known foreign director, but his last film made waves by getting multiple nominations. Here, he gets Paul Mescal and Josh O’Connor in a WWI period piece, which sounds like a future Oscar player. He isn’t quite part of the club yet to unseat one of the directors above, but he could rise up the ranks if the film takes some festival prizes this year.
7. Malcolm Washington - The Piano Lesson - This might be a tougher sell than Picture, being a play adaptation, but if the film is a huge hit then we will see his name popping up a lot. Similar to his father’s film Fences, he will be in that 6-10 range if the film strikes a chord with audiences.
8. John Crowley - We Live in Time - He really didn’t receive any director nominations along the way for his Best Picture-nominated last film, but here he likely will have a lot more room to show his directing chops.
9. Titus Kaphar - Exhibiting Forgiveness - Debut filmmakers don’t typically show up here, especially for Sundance films, but if the film has the relatability and really gets under the skin of audiences, then he can certainly make a run at it.
10. RaMell Ross - The Nickel Boys - He has already broken through and gotten nominated for his debut documentary, so he is already part of the club. The film sounds pretty small, so his directing talent will need to be on full display for a smaller scale film to be recognized here.
11. Bong Joon-ho - Mickey 17 - The Best Director winner from 5 years ago has a big sci-fi drama at his hands to remind us that he is one of the most interesting visual directors in the world. The movie comes out in March, which is weird, but I can’t imagine his film not being hyped up and absolutely blowing us all away.
12. Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck - Freaky Tales - Directing pairs evidently aren’t taboo at the Oscars anymore. If Boden and Fleck can pull Oscar worthy performances out of its slick cast, then maybe they can make a run up the rankings. This feels like a Netflix acquisition, though, which would likely make the film disappear from awards recognition by June.
13. Andrew Stanton - In the Blink of an Eye - The movie sounds more like a Terrence Malick movie than anything else, and with Stanton’s visual mastery, I can see this getting some mentions even if the movie is less approachable.
16. George Miller - Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga - He needs to be mentioned here. The original was such a huge hit that this one will need to surpass that one in order to really have a chance. Second films in sagas rarely get the directing nod even if it sneaks into Picture. We will have to wait and see, but not too long. This comes out in May.
17. Todd Phillips - Joker: Folie a Deux - He was nominated for the original one, so like Miller, he has a bit of a hurdle in front of him in getting nominated back-to-back. However, the Oscars love their musicals. I don’t know what to do with this film.
18. Sam Taylor-Johnson - Back to Black - The story of Amy Winehouse will likely give the director a lot of room to show off. It is an up and down story, and it is written by the writer of the superb music biopic Control, so you know it will be unflinching.
19. Barry Levinson - Alto Knights - He won in this category in 1988, but he has had a tough time getting invited back with just one nomination since. He is getting up there in age, so this is plausibly his last chance to get another nomination. His last big true crime story was Bugsy, which got him his most recent nomination 33 years ago.
20. Michael Pearce - Echo Valley - It is always a bit easier to get nominated for things like thrillers. His 2018 film Beast won him the Debut Filmmaker BAFTA, so he is already a somewhat known commodity. Just keep an eye on this one. It could either be a Hulu release and be forgotten, or it could be a The Constant Gardener type of thriller that really catches us off guard.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave - Fiennes only has two nominations, which feels strange considering how many big Oscar movies he has been in over the years. He plays the Cardinal trying to uncover a secret in the church about the Pope in Edward Berger’s film. That sounds like a recipe for success and potentially his first Oscar win (also his first nomination in 28 years).
2. Andre Holland - Exhibiting Forgiveness - He is one of those actors who has been doing great work for a long time and never really gets singled out for it. He plays an artist who is dealing with his alcoholic father, so there will likely be a lot of emotional scenes and room for him to secure that first nomination.
3. Samuel L. Jackson - The Piano Lesson - It has been a long time since he has been invited back, and here he gets a true drama role to remind everyone that he is one of our great actors. If the film is really going to anoint one actor, I assume it would be Jackson, as long as he is the driving force of the film. It really depends on how screen time is managed.
4. Adam Driver - Megalopolis - He is in the running every single year. He plays an architect trying to rebuild NYC. He is going to win one of these sometime soon, but he just needs the right project. If the movie is a big hit, then this nomination will appear like a lock. Whether he can win is another question.
5. Tony Leung - Silent Friend - Leung is one of the best actors in the world, and this is the type of nomination we will start to see more and more of with the current membership. This is a German production portraying stories from the perspective of an old tree. It sounds pretty strange, but Leung just got a Lifetime Achievement from Venice, and he certainly is stepping outside of his comfort zone for this.
Others in contention
6. Joaquin Phoenix - Polaris / The Island - Both of these movies star Phoenix and Rooney Mara. The former is a Lynne Ramsey film about an ice photographer who meets the devil, and the latter is a Pawel Pawlikowski thriller about a couple who build their own paradise on a desert island. Phoenix also has the Joker movie. I feel confident that he will be nominated for one of these 2024 films.
7. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing - Assuming he gets his first nomination this year, he could get that Jeremy Renner in ‘09-’10 treatment and be thrust thoroughly into the category of go-to Oscar actors.. The ones I mentioned above are a little more interesting to talk about, but I fully expect Domingo to be in this race. Movies that are held onto for the next year’s Oscar race don’t always show up, though. The Hurt Locker and Crash are rare films that withstood the buzz for 2 whole years.
8. Frank Rogowski - Bird - I don’t know anything about the film, but being directed by a filmmaker like Andrea Arnold is intriguing. It is also an A24 release, so you know it will get some nice run. He had a nice breakout role this year, so look for him to capitalize on it.
9. Kevin Costner - Horizon: An American Saga - While his performances are never really singled out, he is still one of our great movie stars. He was nominated for Dances with Wolves and his industry love is shown in Yellowstone. I’m sure the character he wrote for himself will be the juiciest in the film.
10. Brad Pitt - Untitled Joseph Kosinski Film - This is a Joseph Kosinski project about a F-1 racer who comes out of retirement to mentor a younger driver. After Top Gun: Maverick, we have to pay attention to what Kosinski is up to. Pitt is nominated whenever he puts in great work, and this could be another breezy entertainment movie star role for the 2019 Oscar winner.
11. Jay Will - Rob Peace - This is a true story about an inner-city kid who goes to Yale. It is a Sundance release, and it is written and directed by Oscar nominee Chiwetel Ejiofor. I don’t know anything about the actor, but it sounds like a juicy role, and you have to take a few stabs at Sundance films.
12. Paul Mescal - Gladiator 2 / The History of Sound - Mescal is one of the go-to young actors in Hollywood right now. He has the lead role in Ridley Scott’s sequel to his Best Picture winner, and he also has the lead in Oliver Hermanus’s WWI romance. One of these films could easily get the young actor his second nomination, but predicting which one will get the majority of the push is the most difficult thing at this point.
15. Daniel Craig - Queer - This is directed by Luca Guadagnino, and it is about a man in Mexico City who falls for a much younger man. Craig has the ability to get a nomination at some point, and maybe a true step out like this is the project for him to break out of the Bond persona. Guadagnino’s films certainly push actors to do something different than they have ever done before.
16. Pedro Pascal - Freaky Tales - He has been a rising star in the past few years, and while I have no clue what his role is in the film, he could easily be the lead and/or standout of the cast. He will get a nomination in the next 10 years. Book it.
17. Nicholas Hoult - Juror #2 - He is constantly one of our most underappreciated actors. Here, he plays a juror who hangs in the balance of a wrongfully convicted murderer. I can see him stealing the show or being passed up by the other actors like he almost always is.
18. Steven Yeun - Love Me - The film is the debut film by Sam & Andy Zuchero, and it is debuting this month at Sundance. It is about a love story between a satellite and a buoy. I don’t even know what that means, but it is intriguing.
19. Adam Sandler - Untitled Safdie Brothers Film - Plot details are not released yet for this, but after Uncut Gems, we have to pay attention to this partnership.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Angelina Jolie - Maria - Her Oscar win was 25 years ago, so it seems like it’s about time for her to get that second win. This is not the type of role that she typically takes, so if she does her own singing and such, then she will be able to really take the audience. The Larrain films have been really subtle, so that plays into her hands as well.
2. Marion Cotillard - La Tour de Glace - This is a film directed by French filmmaker Lucille Hadzihalilovic, and it is about an orphan who witnesses the the filming of an adaptation of a fairy tale, and she becomes infatuated by the actress, which is the character that Cotillard plays. It sounds like exactly the kind of thing that the Academy looks for in their lead actress choices, and she will be able to really play it up with true movie star magnetism.
3. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked - The movie is directed by Jon M. Chu, and it has the Oscar friendly release time of late November. It is an origin story of the Wicked Witch of the West, and it is a musical adaptation of the hit Broadway play. She is a past nominee, and I fully expect her to slay this role. The only issue is that it is reportedly part 1 of 2.
4. Helena Zengel - The Legend of Ochi - This is the directorial debut of Isaiah Saxon, and it is about a young girl who learns to communicate with animals. She was snubbed at the last minute for News of the World, despite blowing everyone away who actually saw the film. Here is her real Oscar role. We will see how this develops. It will need a decent theatrical push from A24.
5. Marisa Abela - Back to Black - She is a relative newcomer, but she looks just like Winehouse in the initial stills. Is she the next hot young star to be anointed by the Academy? I’m betting on it.
Others in contention
6. Liu Yifei - Silent Friend - She is the female lead in the film with Tony Leung. It is directed by Hungarian filmmaker Ildiko Enyedi, who previously made Oscar nominated On Body and Soul. Yifei was the new Mulan in the live action film, so she is a new but recognizable face. I could see this movie really making a run after the festivals this fall.
7. Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie a Deux - She is one of the more talented actresses out there, and she is a chameleon at that. This seems like absolute dream casting here. It all depends on if the movie can live up to the hype. The first one got mediocre reviews but was one of the highest grossing films of that year. This one will need better reviews and a similar box office run.
8. Julianne Moore - Echo Valley - She has a few roles every year that sound like Oscar stuff. This one is no different. She plays a mother who is thrust into a bad situation when her daughter (I assume that’s Sydney Sweeney) shows up covered in blood. She will have all the room in the world to show off her crazy range of emotions.
9. Daisy Edgar-Jones - On Swift Horses - She is one of those actors who is just pushing to break out. Here, she plays the dramatic center of the film by Daniel Minahan. Can she exceed expectations and make an awards season push later this year? I think so.
10. Noemie Merlant - Emmanuelle - This is from Audrey Diwan, director of French abortion drama Happening, and it is about a woman and her erotic fantasies. Merlant has been in a few big Oscar type films recently; it is only a matter of time before she finds herself among the ranks of Oscar nominees.
12. Rooney Mara - Polaris / The Island - Similar to the rationale around Phoenix in these two films, I expect one of these movies to really hit and become a threat in multiple categories. Mara hasn’t been nominated in almost 10 years, so it will be a bit tougher of a hurdle for her than her partner.
13. Florence Pugh - We Live in Time - She plays the female lead opposite Andrew Garfield in Crowley’s film. I do not know of the plot just yet, but she is always in contention. The movie could be a sappy romance, but I expect something pretty great and a borderline Best Picture contender.
14. Nicole Kidman - Holland, Michigan - This is a thriller about a woman who finds out that her husband is cheating, so she has an affair of her own before some wild things start happening. This might be a little too out there even for someone like Kidman (the director Mimi Cave last brought us the Hulu movie Fresh), but this sounds pretty great and has a terrific cast.
15. Julie Garner - Apartment 7A - I always end up with a Garner film in my predictions. I will be right at some point! This is directed by Natalie Erika James (2020’s Relic), and it is a prequel to Rosemary’s Baby. Garner is the only real draw of the cast, so it could be too small or just immediately forgotten, but it is worth at least a mention.
16. Kristen Stewart - Love Me - She plays opposite Steven Yeun in this sci-fi romance premiering at Sundance. Let’s wait and see on this one.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Barry Keoghan - Bird - I have no idea what his character is in Andrea Arnold’s film, but he is one of our best actors right now. He supposedly dropped out of the Gladiator sequel to do this film, and that to me implies that it is a hell of a role.
2. John Earl Jelks - Exhibiting Forgiveness - He is an actor I’m not entirely familiar with, but he plays a recovering alcoholic father in Titus Kaphar’s debut Sundance film. These types of roles always have a place at the Academy, and I expect him to capitalize on that trend in one of the Best Picture frontrunners.
3. Mark Ruffalo - Mickey 17 - I don’t know what his role is, but he has proven time and time again that he is one of the most beloved actors in the industry. Being a supporting character in Bong Joon-ho’s film will be similar to his scene-stealing in Poor Things. Sometimes the voters just can’t resist.
4. Gael Garcia Bernal - Holland, Michigan - Bernal is one of the best actors in the world without a nomination. This movie might be too small, and I don’t necessarily know what his part will be, but I am intrigued. It also has Amazon money behind it, so it will be pushed if it is good enough.
5. Javier Bardem - Untitled Joseph Kosinski Film - I don’t know what his role is necessarily, but casting Bardem in a movie about F-1 racing is intriguing. If he is some rival to Pitt’s character, then that will only cement his status as one of the characters to watch out for in 2024.
Others in contention
6. Jesse Plemons - Kind of Kindness - He is always a scene-stealer, and being in a Lanthimos movie will probably give him something to do that he has never done. The supporting parts in his movies are typically more memorable than the leads.
7. Stanley Tucci - Conclave - Tucci is always doing interesting work, but rarely is he part of a big Oscar player. Here, he plays a Cardinal in Berger’s film, which could be a contender in all categories and be enough to snag him his 2nd nomination.
8. Nicholas Halitzine - The Idea of You - I don’t really know the actor, but he plays the part of the younger man who has an affair with Hathaway’s character. He is basically the Charles Melton of this year, and they could become a package deal.
11. Eddie Marsan - Back to Black - He is one of our great supporting character actors, and here he plays Amy Winehouse’s father. That will likely be a fiery role and potentially secure him his first nomination.
12. Josh O’Connor - The History of Sound - He is an actor on the rise after his Emmy win for The Crown. In addition to Hermanus’s film, he has Challengers, which is the Luca Guadagnino tennis film coming out in a few months, as well as La Chimera, which I also mentioned last year as a potential Oscar player. He is one of the hotshot young actors who can become the future, and this film especially can be his ticket into the Oscar club.
13. Jacob Elordi - On Swift Horses - Elordi will probably have to wait a little longer before his first nomination, but if this film hits the way I expect it to, it could immediately vault him into the conversation of being one of his generation’s best actors. He is playing the scene-stealing part in this book adaptation.
14. Denzel Washington - Gladiator 2 - His inclusion in Ridley Scott’s sequel to his Best Picture winner is fascinating to me. I just feel like his part will be the one that will get all the good marks, even if the film fails. But anything is possible with this.
15. Simon Rex - Greedy People - After Red Rocket, it is only a matter of time before Rex really gets a shot at an Oscar nomination. This is directed by Potsy Ponciroli (director of one of 2021’s best films Old Henry), and it follows a murder investigation in a small town. I don’t know his part, but it feels like the right type of tone for Rex. It will need quite a push to be taken seriously.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - The Nickel Boys - I don’t know what her role is, but she is going to have a really big year, and if this is some sort of mother role, then she could be looking at an easy nomination. She is also in The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat and Exhibiting Forgiveness.
2. Michaela Coel - Mother Mary - Emmy winner Coel is the fashion designer who has an affair with Hathaway’s musician in David Lowery’s film. I suspect that she will steal the movie. She is always interesting to watch, and being in a project like this will certainly be a step out for her.
3. Kathleen Quinlan - Horizon: An American Saga - I have no idea what she is doing in this movie, and she really hasn’t had a role of note seemingly since her nomination in 1995, but there is a reason she was cast in this movie. The supporting cast is really intriguing, and this is certainly just a stab in the dark, but that’s why we do this!
4. Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson - This looks like her chance to avenge her atrocious Oscar snub from a couple years ago when she missed for Till. It appears that her character is at odds with John David Washington’s character, so there will likely be a lot of fiery scenes where she can steal the show from a supporting role.
5. Maria Bakalova - The Apprentice - Previous nominee Bakalova has not made a splash since she burst onto the screen in Borat 2. This is a film about Donald Trump and how he started his real estate business in the 70s and 80s. Bakalova plays Ivana Trump, opposite Sebastian Stan playing young Donald. It is directed by talented Iranian filmmaker Ali Abbasi, so it will have a unique perspective on things. This probably isn’t happening, but it is worth a look. It is set in the past, so it isn’t exactly W or anything.
Others in contention
6. Andra Day - Exhibiting Forgiveness - She is a past nominee, and her casting in this Sundance drama is intriguing to me. She could eventually be a shoo-in, or she could be pushed aside by the other supporting actors in the film, such as Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor. We really can’t know at this point, but we will know later this month.
7. Renate Reinsve - A Different Man - This is a Sundance film directed by newcomer Aaron Schimberg, and it follows a man who has facial reconstructive surgery who becomes fixated on the actor who is portraying him on stage. Reinsve gets her first stab at an English film here, and I expect it to be one of the most talked about films later this month out of the festival.
8. Uzo Aduba - The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat - This is a buzzed-about project directed by TV director Tina Mabry. It is about three female best friends who have called themselves “The Supremes” since high school and have lived closely for some 40 years. The cast is really dynamite, including Aduba, who is always a highlight in supporting roles. Can this be her ticket to film success? Searchlight is distributing, so it is certainly on the table.
9. Hong Chau - Kind of Kindness - She is a recent nominee, and she gets a Lanthimos movie to really stretch her talent. I really just chose a couple actors out of the cast to mention here, it could easily have been Hunter Schafer, Margaret Qualley, or anyone else who breaks out of this film.
12. Lesley Manville - Queer - The role she plays is unclear at this point, but her involvement in a Guadagnino production is fascinating to me. Whatever it is, you know she will bring the goods.
13. Diane Lane - Anniversary - This is probably an out of left field mention, but sometimes those movies pop up. It is a film by the director of 2019 Oscar nominee Corpus Christi, and it is about a family torn apart by a social apocalypse. It is listed as a thriller, so who knows? Lane hasn't been close to a nomination since her one and only invite back in 2002.
14. Isabella Rosellini - Conclave - It has been quite a while since we heard from Rosellini in any significant way. She plays Sister Agnes in the conspiracy thriller film based on the Robert Harris book. If the movie is a top 5 Best Picture contender the way I predict, then she could be swept in with the killer SAG-favorite cast.
15. Toni Collette - Juror #2 - She has just one nomination, which was 25 years ago. Eastwood directing her is an interesting look, and I can totally see her being the one who is singled out in the really cool cast.
16. Laura Linney - Suncoast - At some point Linney will finally get an Oscar. This is the directorial debut of Laura Chinn, and it is a Sundance premiere about a young woman dealing with her brother’s serious illness. If she is the mother character and the movie hits, then she will be right in the running.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Kind of Kindness - Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos - It is a strange exercise predicting a screenplay win for a movie with no plot details, but here I am. Lanthimos will get a win soon because somehow he is one of the more beloved directors right now. I don’t really have a great feeling about this category, so this seems like a safe random stab.
2. Megalopolis - Francis Ford Coppola - It is boring to predict a clean sweep in January. Coppola has won 3 screenwriting Oscars, but not in the original category since 1970. It sounds like a really inventive film and one that will take a lot of imagination, but I would lean more toward it being a directing showcase than a writing showcase.
3. Exhibiting Forgiveness - Titus Kaphar - The movie’s success likely relies on its screenplay and if it can destroy the audience. I have 2 of its actors getting nominated, so this really should come along with that. I always take a stab at a couple Sundance titles each year, but this one I really feel good about.
4. The Order - Zach Baylin - This is directed by Australian director Justin Kurzel, and Baylin is a hot new screenwriter after his Oscar nom for King Richard. The movie is about a series of crimes in the PNW that are being investigated as being the work of domestic terrorists. It sounds pretty relevant, and if Amazon thinks they have a hit on their hands, then it can really make waves later this year.
5. Bird - Andrea Arnold - She won an Oscar for Live Action Short back in 2005, so it isn’t crazy to think she can get invited back after some more niche indie films like Fish Tank and American Honey. I don’t know what the film is about, but I have a good feeling about it.
Others in contention
6. Horizon: An American Saga - Kevin Costner, Jon Baird - Costner hasn’t been involved with a screenplay before, and Baird, despite his familiar name, is not the writer of Tetris or any other film. That is certainly a hurdle, and westerns rarely have enough writing showcases to get nominated, but I think this film is a real contender.
7. We Live in Time - Nick Payne - He is mostly a TV writer, but he got this script picked up by John Crowley, coming off his Best Picture nominated Brooklyn. The screenplay will need to be sublime for it to be singled out amongst these heavy hitters.
8. Untitled Jordan Peele Film - Jordan Peele - There are no details that have been released for this movie, but Jordan Peele deserves our attention. It is still listed as being in pre-production, but Nope randomly popped up and was released without anyone knowing it was completed. It is worth keeping an eye on.
9. Untitled Safdie Brothers Film - Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie - They were snubbed in every category 5 years ago, and here they have Sandler back, along with Megan Thee Stallion. Nothing else is known about this project. Sign me up.
10. Holland, Michigan - Andrew Sodroski - He is a first time writer, but the script was on the Blacklist in 2013, so there is clearly some admiration for his work on this film. If the movie is a big hit, which would need to be a Gone Girl level hit for it to happen, then Sodroski will be put in the mix.
12. Alto Knights - Nicholas Pileggi - He is the brilliant author and Oscar nominee who brought us Goodfellas, so another true crime epic feels like an easy sell for the Academy. It is an original screenplay, so instead of just making it a book, he decided to bring this to the big screen. I expect greatness from this, but the Academy has gone other ways recently.
13. Juror #2 - Jonathan Abrams - He is a first time writer, but getting your script picked up by Clint Eastwood implies that it is something pretty special. I have high hopes for this film.
14. Untitled Joseph Kosinski Film - Ehren Kruger - He is typically a genre writer, but after his nomination for Top Gun: Maverick, he is part of the club. Sports films are not always the easiest sell, particularly in the screenplay categories, so this one will need to be more original and certainly not cliche.
15. Rob Peace - Chiwetel Ejiofor - His last film was completely ignored (The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind), but this sounds much more conventional and Oscar friendly. It doesn’t really feel like a Sundance movie, but we will see how it plays.
16. In the Blink of an Eye - Colby Day - He does not have a feature length screenplay to his name, but he has this film and Spaceman both getting released this year. Both of them sound astonishing, so we will see if he has the goods.
17. Materialists - Celine Song - This is supposed to be coming out this year. It is about a matchmaker falling in love with a client. The details are thin so far, but after Past Lives, we all have our eyes on Song’s career.
18. Mother Mary - David Lowery - Lowery has never really been an Oscar type director, but this appears to be way less fantastical and more grounded as a character drama. The cast is killer. Depending on how A24 releases it, this could even be a little low of a ranking for it.
19. Maria - Steven Knight - Knight is a previous nominee (2003’s Dirty Pretty Things), and he wrote Spencer. The pedigree is there if the film is in the running for a Best Picture nomination, but we will have to wait and see the reception when it gets its festival run. Critics will likely try to bury this one.
20. Civil War - Alex Garland - This looks pretty wild, and this is absolutely me doubling down after Garland’s last film Men being predicted to be a major Oscar movie. This is an action movie about a civil war in the US and a team of journalists following it. It looks crazy, and the cast is awesome. It comes out in April.
21. Wolfs - Jon Watts - Coming off the Spider-Man movies, Watts takes on a film about two fixers who are assigned to the same job. It is a reunion of George Clooney and Brad Pitt. It sounds like a blast!
22. Greedy People - Mike Vukadinovich - He is a newcomer, but every once in a while a comedy-crime movie really strikes a chord with awards circuits. It probably won’t be this one (it comes out in May), but who knows? I love the cast with Lily James, JGL, Simon Rex, Joey Lauren Adams, and Tim Blake Nelson.
23. Polaris - Lynne Ramsey - The Academy has changed enough that this type of movie could be one that becomes an Oscar movie. Critics awards are blending so much into the televised awards that bizarre directors like Ramsey are going to start to be awarded too. The movie sounds pretty out there, being about a photographer meeting the devil, but I can certainly see it being a hit.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Conclave - Peter Straughan - He is a past nominee for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, but not all of his screenplays work out (The Goldfinch and Our Brand Is Crisis are a couple notable flops written by him). However, the film is directed by Edward Berger, and with the subject matter being what it is, it will likely have plenty of juicy dialogue and room to really let Straughan’s talent shine through.
2. The Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes - The adaptation of one of TIME’s top books of the decade will likely have a lot of expectations, but I believe the movie has the ability to hit all the right notes. We will have to see, but this sounds like the type of sophisticated and devastating work that is rewarded in this category.
3. Mickey 17 - Bong Joon-ho - More than any other category, I am most confident that Bong ends up getting in here. It is an adaptation of a 2022 novel, so he is running on something very recent and mostly unknown. He will get a lot of credit for how original it is. This is one of the most anticipated films of the year, and he did win for screenplay for Parasite as well. This could be the winner here, who knows?
4. Queer - Justin Kritzkes - He has this film and Challengers getting released this year, his first two screenwriting credits. The film sounds really interesting, and Guadagnino will certainly make it all that it can be. The fact that he collaborated with him for both of these films means something.
5. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat - Gina Prince-Bythewood, Tina Mabry - It is based on a beloved book, and it feels like exactly the kind of material that the Academy can be taken by. It is a comedy-drama, which is always a plus in these types of situations, and Prince-Bythewood’s involvement is fascinating to me, since he chose not to direct. I might be underrating this, honestly.
Others in contention
6. The History of Sound - Ben Shattuck - This is his first screenplay, and it is an adaptation of his short story that Hermanus handpicked for a screen version. The story sounds like something custom made for a ravishing Oscar hit.
7. On Swift Horses - Bryce Kass - Kass only has one real credit to his name, so I don’t know what kind of writer he really is. This film has potential all over the map, but it all depends on his script.
8. Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, John Divine G. Whitfield, Clarence Maclin - Movies based on a play have a terrible track record in the screenplay categories, which is the only thing holding this back. It feels like an Oscar nominee, but I just can’t get past the Academy’s negligence in its nominating of stage production adaptations.
9. The Piano Lesson - Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington - The Academy really hates play adaptations being nominated for screenplay. Maybe this one will be different and not feel like a filmed play the way some do, but then again A Few Good Men even missed back in 1992. If the movie is a top 5 Best Picture contender, then it might not matter, much like Fences getting in without a real credited screenwriter.
12. The Electric State - Christopher Markus, Stephen McFeely - This is a Russo brothers movie about an orphaned teenager who goes across the American West with a robot and a drifter. Markus and McFeeley are the collaborators on the Avengers movies, and it has a really cool popcorn cast and a $200 million budget being released by Netflix. It might be a giant bag of nothing in the end, but seeing the ambition and eventual near Oscar nomination for Cherry, I am going to always be intrigued by what the Russo brothers are up to.
That’s all I got! Which of these films looks most interesting to you? Do you have any bold predictions a year out? What are your most anticipated films of 2024? Comment below!
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