Here are my final Oscar predictions! I haven’t updated these much throughout the year, but I also don’t really feel like a lot has changed. This has been the most boring awards season since I have been writing about them (since 2008), and that is because there is almost no variety in any awards show. Everyone is just signing off on the same group of nominees and winners, and it is lame. I am bizarrely confident about a lot of these categories. Check out my predictions in all 20 feature categories below! Happy Oscar predicting!
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan) - LOCK
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese) - LOCK
3. Barbie (Greta Gerwig) - LOCK
4. The Holdovers - (Alexander Payne) - LOCK
5. Poor Things (Yorgos Lanthimos) - LOCK
6. Past Lives (Celine Song) - LOCK
7. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson) - LOCK
8. Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet) - It is never wise to be fully confident that a foreign film is getting into the Best Picture lineup, but after the Golden Globes win for Screenplay and countless awards for Best Foreign Film, this is becoming close to a lock. There just aren’t a lot of contenders that can overtake it with this kind of momentum.
9. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer) - This is even tougher to predict than Anatomy, but the PGA going for something like this is very telling. It seems like a safe bet in several categories, and it seems like the appreciation for what the movie accomplishes will alone get it the first place votes required for a nomination.
10. Maestro (Bradley Cooper) - The movie is not popular online, which is becoming more and more of how the Academy votes. There is a lot of love for Cooper, however, with 9 nominations in his career. The movie plays fine, and this would certainly be more of an old-fashioned kind of film to get into Best Picture, but Netflix needs one film. I have this just barely sneaking in.
Others in contention
11. May December (Todd Haynes) - This is the other Netflix film in the running. It was all the rage back when it was released, and it is obviously one of the critics darlings of the season. The industry has been less enthusiastic, especially in places like SAG where it really needed to get in. I can see the passion from certain groups helping it rise to a nomination, but there just isn’t that much opportunity in the other categories to add to its package.
12. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh) - This is a late bloomer, and there is a lot of enthusiasm for the film. It would be a unique choice for the Academy, but the Academy’s tendencies are becoming aligned with critics groups and the groupthink that comes with those online more so now than ever before. If this pops up in a couple key categories below, as well as at BAFTA, then this is a real possibility.
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson) - The movie has its fans. It will definitely have a contingent who will give it the #1 votes it needs to get in the running, but it is still an uphill climb for any animated film not made by Disney/Pixar.
14. The Color Purple - Blitz Bazawule - The SAG Ensemble nomination gave the film the little bit of hope it needed to stay in the race. The movie was really sort of a flop, but sometimes the Academy just can’t resist its musicals. It is in a very similar situation that West Side Story was a couple years ago…it just isn’t directed by Spielberg.
15. Air (Ben Affleck) - The only issue with Air is its accompanying nomination package. It really only has a shot in Original Screenplay, unless Viola Davis rises up after getting ignored by the groups that usually flock to every one of her appearances on screen. The release date really hurt this film as well. However, the star power is hard to ignore, and with a late push from BAFTA, it could be the uncontroversial film that could grab that last spot.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer - LOCK
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon - LOCK
3. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest - He feels like a lock, but I can’t quite go there. The “foreign auteur” spot is almost a yearly thing, but the issue is that his foreign film isn’t even the most beloved foreign film of the year. It is rare for 2018-type situations to happen where both of them get in. Glazer’s film is tougher to take in, but his vision is unquestioned.
4. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers - He almost always gets nominated. Even with Nebraska (which he also didn’t write), it felt like less of a Payne than any of his others, yet he still secured nominations in all the major categories. The Holdovers has a lot of competition, but this still feels like a safe bet.
5. Greta Gerwig - Barbie - This is the tough spot. The Academy has made it a thing to nominate a woman basically every year. Gerwig is part of the club. Everyone involved in the film does nothing but praise her and her vision. But is it really an Oscar worthy thing, when there are so many other “sophisticated” films that can claim this spot? I find it hard to believe that the director of the top box office film of the year (and the highest grossing female director of all time) could miss. But it is close.
Others in contention
6. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things - This is a strange one to leave off, but there are plenty of people who are completely baffled by and turned off by the film. It is hard to deny his unique eye and camera work, but it hits a lot of the same notes as Barbie, just filled with full frontal nudity. We already have the feminist tale in there, and we have the foreign auteur. He just barely misses out.
7. Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall - I am tempted to have her at 5 and fulfill the female director slot, as well as the foreign director slot. Her film is constantly surging, and even though it would be unconventional for a film like this to get into the Director category, she has the goods to make it happen.
8. Cord Jefferson - American Fiction - The movie is really hitting with audiences and with the right precursors. Jefferson is a first time filmmaker, which is always a tough sell for this branch of the Academy, but if diversity is on their mind more than female representation, then watch out.
9. Bradley Cooper - Maestro - He really wants to be recognized as a director, and while the film is very impressive in certain sequences, the Academy and audiences don’t necessarily like films that are pure Oscar bait anymore. I can see him sneaking into basically every category still, though.
10. Celine Song - Past Lives - She is in a similar situation that Jefferson is in. There is widespread passion for the indie film, but she is a newcomer. I think they make her wait for her second feature.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Bradley Cooper - Maestro - LOCK
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer - LOCK
3. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers - LOCK
4. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction - The last two slots are really difficult. His film is at its strongest point. There is a lot of appreciation for him as a veteran actor who has never truly gotten his due. It is looking good for him, but he really needs some kind of win and a BAFTA nomination to really secure his spot.
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin - His film is pretty much dead in the water, but everyone knows how great he is in the film. Netflix is still pushing him, and the SAG nom was huge for him, even though they tend to just nominate everything Netflix does. This is the spot I have the least confidence in throughout all categories.
Others in contention
6. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon - How is Leo not getting nominated? I don’t know. It is one of his 5 best performances, and the film is going to get nominated in nearly every category. He doesn’t seem to care, though. His whole campaign is propping up Lily Gladstone, so this is an afterthought. The SAG miss is head-scratching. We will have to see, but he is on shaky ground.
7. Andrew Scott - All of Us Strangers - In another year, he could be the Paul Mescal of the season and get that last spot. He is mostly an unknown actor to American film audiences, but the Academy is way more international now. I am not counting him out completely, but it would be a pretty big surprise for him to take out the star power above.
8. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn - I don’t know how the Academy is going to view this movie, but he is a past nominee, and he could get that shocking validation nomination that sometimes pops up. He got the Globe nom, and I expect BAFTA to go for him as well.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Joaquin Phoenix - Beau Is Afraid
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon - LOCK
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things - LOCK
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall - LOCK
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro - No one is really talking about how she isn’t winning much. She was supposed to be the frontrunner, but in Michelle Williams 2022 fashion, she just gets nominations as an also-ran. Is there that much passion for the film or her performance? I can’t say for certain. She is safe, but she is not a lock.
5. Annette Bening - Nyad - The SAG nomination was easy for her, and it keeps her in the running. This is going to be another unfortunate loss for Bening, but I like her chances to grab the last slot.
Others in contention
6. Greta Lee - Past Lives - The movie has its fans, but I don’t think they need to necessarily take her to the ceremony with the film. She is a new face, which is rewarded in this category more than the other acting categories, but I just don’t see her passing up one of the powerhouses above her.
7. Margot Robbie - Barbie - I still don’t really think this is an Oscar role. She could still get the nomination, but she is more concerned with her producing credit than her acting credit. I am probably foolish placing her 7th, but it just doesn’t add up.
8. Natalie Portman - May December - If May December can make a late push and get back in the public consciousness, then she could be one of those nominations that makes all the sense in the world that we didn’t see coming.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Origin
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer - LOCK
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie - LOCK
3. Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon - He was snubbed 4 years ago for The Irishman, but here we have his best work in 30 years. Even when he was predicted to miss at SAG the way Leo missed, he still got in because he is that good. However, he isn’t really winning anything, so his spot is unsecure.
4. Willem Dafoe - Poor Things - The SAG nomination over Ruffalo was surprising. He is going to get that “Dench over Balfe” veteran preference vote and secure his 5th nomination. The physical transformation is also in style.
5. Peter Sarsgaard - Memory - This is my true longshot pick. He hasn’t really gotten the nominations necessary for this to be on anyone’s radar, but he is one of the most respected actors out there without a nomination. He has done the talk show thing, the podcast thing, and the internet interview thing. It doesn’t have the flash of the Andrea Riseborough surge a year ago, but he is in that Brian Tyree Henry mold. Just keep an eye out.
Others in contention
6. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things - He is legitimately awful in the movie, but since he isn’t usually awful in movies, he is looked at as stepping outside his comfort zone. Comedic performances rarely get nominations anymore. I have him just outside after that SAG snub.
7. Charles Melton - May December - The critical favorite performance has hit his slump. Missing at SAG was crushing. He needs his film to be stronger than it appears to be for him to get past those last couple actors.
8. Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction - The SAG nomination was bizarre, but it makes sense considering how much that particular voting body loves him. It would be one of the least impressive nominations in recent memory if he were to secure that last spot. He just does nothing in the movie.
9. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers - He might be able to category fraud his way to a nomination. He really needed to get pulled in with his costars to a SAG nom, but he missed out. He never quite could catch on the way Lucas Hedges did in 2016.
10. Glenn Howerton - BlackBerry - He gives the best performance of the year, and he is in the wrong category. After missing all the televised nominations, this would be pretty far outside the box. But I still feel like there is enthusiasm for his performance and his film (the best film of the year).
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Matt Damon - Oppenheimer
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers - LOCK
2. Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple - LOCK
3. Jodie Foster - Nyad - She got the SAG nomination, which is crucial. I view the movie as being this year’s Hillbilly Elegy, and, like Glenn Close, she is the safer pick of the two SAG-nominated actresses in the film. She is the secret sauce of the movie, and she makes it go. The movie just isn’t that popular, though.
4. Julianne Moore - May December - The Todd Haynes muse really has the best shot at a nomination in the film. Her part is the most traditional Oscar stuff, and her category is a mess.
5. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer - She is really the weak link in the movie, but she is beloved, has never been nominated, and continues to pop up as a nominee everywhere she has to. She is close to a lock, but she is also close to being forgotten once again.
Others in contention
6. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari - The SAG nom resurrected her campaign. She has gotten nominated with less precursor support than this. She is simply one of the actresses who can do absolutely anything and get a nomination for it.
7. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn - If her movie makes a push, then she has a good chance at grabbing one of those last 3 spots in a very shaky category.
8. America Ferrera - Barbie - She really missed out when she got snubbed at SAG. She is a respected actor, she has the Oscar scene, and she continues to be in the spotlight at all these awards shows. Her speech at the Critics Choice Awards was certainly a plus.
9. Viola Davis - Air - She seemed like a lock a few months ago. I still don’t entirely buy that she is out of the race. If screeners get circulated, she will get some votes.
10. Rachel McAdams - Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. - I do not understand how she isn’t getting nominated. She does have that one nomination in 2015, but this is her best work by a good distance. This would be a little TLJ-ITVOE at this point.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Sandra Huller - The Zone of Interest
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. The Holdovers - David Hemingson - LOCK
2. Past Lives - Celine Song - LOCK
3. Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet, Arthur Harari - The Golden Globe win was huge. It feels like a slam dunk nomination, but you can never fully consider a foreign film a lock in any category.
4. May December - Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik - The category is really watered down after Barbie switched categories. This feels like a pretty safe bet at this point, and a much more common nominee than the other contenders.
5. Air - Alex Convery - The movie is very talky, and it turned a movie about the making of a shoe into an exhilarating experience. I think the young newcomer gets his deserved nomination.
Others in contention
6. Maestro - Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer - Screenplay nominations for biopic are never the easiest thing. How unique was their script? Was it really not based on anything? We can never really know. The film is also not as beloved as it was once thought to be, so I have to lean with it being left off.
7. Saltburn - Emerald Fennell - The movie would be a real banger of a nomination for the Oscar winning screenwriter. It is too divisive to pass up the ones above, but I can also see the British voters giving it a boost to make it close.
8. Asteroid City - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola - Anderson is nominated almost every time he makes a movie. He is likely getting in for his short films, so this film will be rightfully forgotten and snubbed in every category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Barbie - Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig - LOCK
2. Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan - LOCK
3. American Fiction - Cord Jefferson - LOCK
4. Killers of the Flower Moon - Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese - LOCK
5. Poor Things - Tony McNamera - It would be bizarre if this film misses in this category. While it is a pretty terrible movie, the ideas and the script are certainly original and flashy. He is a past nominee, and I think he ekes out that last spot that was secure before Barbie shoved her way into Adapted.
Others in contention
6. All of Us Strangers - Andrew Haigh - This was my #5 for the longest time. It hurts to leave it off, but it just doesn’t have the pedigree, profile, or necessary nominations to unseat the list of 5 bonafide Best Picture nominees above.
7. The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer - If the movie is really one of those Drive My Car-level beloved and beguiling contenders, then it will more likely be a contender for the win in several other categories and this nomination will appear as obvious.BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. El Conde
5. The Zone of Interest
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Wonka
5. The Color Purple
BEST SOUND
1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. Napoleon
BEST EDITING
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Barbie
4. The Holdovers
5. Maestro
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. Society of the Snow
3. Godzilla Minus One
4. The Creator
5. Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Golda
4. Society of the Snow
5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “What Was I Made For? - Barbie
2. “Road to Freedom” - Rustin
3. “The Fire Inside” - Flamin’ Hot
4. “Dance the Night” - Barbie
5. “It Never Went Away” - American Symphony
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
4. The Zone of Interest
5. American Fiction
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Four Daughters
2. 20 Days in Mariupol
3. Beyond Utopia
4. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
5. American Symphony
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
5. Nimona
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. The Zone of Interest
2. The Taste of Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Fallen Leaves
5. Totem
Predicted Nominations Count
Oppenheimer: 11 moms / 7 wins
Killers of the Flower Moon: 11 noms / 1 win
Barbie: 9 noms / 4 wins
Poor Things: 9 noms
The Holdovers: 6 noms / 2 wins
Maestro: 6 noms / 2 wins
The Zone of Interest: 5 noms / 1 win
American Fiction: 4 noms
Anatomy of a Fall: 3 noms
Society of the Snow: 3 noms
American Symphony: 2 noms
The Color Purple: 2 noms
May December: 2 noms
Nyad: 2 noms
Napoleon: 2 noms
Past Lives: 2 noms
Rustin: 2 noms
Four Daughters: 1 nom / 1 win
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: 1 nom / 1 win
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 1 nom / 1 win
The Creator: 1 nom
20 Days in Mariupol: 1 nom
Air: 1 nom
Beyond Utopia: 1 nom
The Boy and the Heron: 1 nom
El Conde: 1 nom
Elemental: 1 nom
Fallen Leaves: 1 nom
Flamin’ Hot: 1 nom
Godzilla Minus One: 1 nom
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project: 1 nom
Golda: 1 nom
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: 1 nom
The Last Voyage of the Demeter: 1 nom
Memory: 1 nom
Nimona: 1 nom
The Taste of Things: 1 nom
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem: 1 nom
Totem: 1 nom
Wonka: 1 nom
That’s it! Stay tuned for my Reactions to the Nominations article to see how my predictions did. Nominations are announced Tuesday January 23rd.
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