#26
The Milwaukee Brewers lost their manager and two aces this off-season, but they have a youth movement ready to become the new core for their next championship run. Will the kids bring wins in 2024?
#22 - 3rd in NL Central
MIH - Christian Yelich
MIP - Devin Williams
PTW - Sal Frelick
FP - Corbin Burnes will be traded in the next 12 months.
2023 Results
#14 - 92-70, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLWC
Highest WAR (Position) - William Contreras
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Corbin Burnes
The Brewers took advantage of an unpredictable division and rose to the top behind their strong pitching. Although they didn't go far in the playoffs, the fact that they got there made the season a success. From last year's article, "Could they win 90 games? Maybe. Could they lose 90? Probably not, but maybe." I skewed closer to the 90 losses than the 90 wins. I missed on that prediction, however...
Additions / Subtractions
... my Fearless Prediction was right! Corbin Burnes got his huge haul from the Orioles, and the Brewers couldn't say no. Then, their other ace, Brandon Woodruff, was re-signed even though he probably won't pitch in 2024 with an injury. Those are big losses, however the biggest loss may have been manager Craig Counsell leaving Milwaukee to manage the rival Cubs. The only significant additions are first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher/hitter Gary Sanchez.
Most Important Hitter
Willy Adames
One of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season was the emergence of shortstop Willy Adames after his trade to Milwaukee from Tampa. In under 100 games with the Brewers, he garnered MVP votes. However, since that breakout season his production has been in a slow decline. Topping out with a 137 OPS+ in 2021, since he has earned a 110 OPS+ in 2022 and 95 in 2023, making him a below average hitter last season. The power was still there, hitting 24 homers, but the average and on base dipped. If Adames can return to his All Star level of 2021, he will stabilize this young lineup ... or turn into a more valuable trade chip.
Most Important Pitcher
Freddy Peralta
Just like Adames, Freddy Peralta peaked in his young career in 2021 and has come back down to earth some over the last two seasons. Now, with no Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta is going to be looked at as the ace. After a solid, but not elite, 2023 season, Peralta gets the promotion, and he will show this season just how ready he is for it.
Prospect to Watch
Jackson Chourio
The Brewers took this step back heading into 2024 because their strong farm system is ready to provide their big league roster with a load of talent. Sporting the 3rd best farm system in baseball, the Brewers feature 5 Top 100 prospects, however the prize of their system will be their Opening Day center fielder. Jackson Chourio is a 20 year old phenom currently ranked as the 2nd best prospect in all of baseball. He has all the tools and all the potential. The Brewers believe in him so much that they gave him an 8 year, $82 million extension before ever playing an inning in the big leagues, a record contract for someone in his shoes. He's going to be a star. The question is if his star shines right out of the gate at age 20, or will he take some time to settle into the big leagues. If he takes off, Chourio could become a must see star this season. Add him to last year's top rook Sal Frelick and former MVP Christian Yelich, and the Brewers outfield could be fun to watch.
2024 Prediction
5th in NL Central
I think this is the first team that has a realistic shot at the postseason. That's how deep the league is this year. The Brewers are one of those teams that always seem to win and compete. With that said, I think they have just lost a little too much this off-season to stay at the top of the Central. There's a lot of interesting teams in this division that could easily fly or fail. If they all fly, one of the reasons will be because the Brewers struggle. Their lineup looks strong, but I can't see the pitching hold up. You can't lose both aces off your staff and not replace them. That's a rule.
Fearless Prediction
Jackson Chourio will spend time in AAA and still finish in the top 3 in Rookie of the Year.
It's not unprecedented that a young phenom has struggles when they first reach the big leagues. Even Mike Trout struggled so much he was sent back down to the minors for some time. Jackson Chourio is 20 years old. Not everyone becomes an instant star at that age like Julio Rodriguez. I see Chourio needing a reset within the first month or two after some initial struggles, but he will be ready once he's back. Talk about a roller coaster season!
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