#25
The Chicago Cubs had a solid season in 2023, almost making the playoffs. So ... they fired their manager. Would the change in leadership lead to more success?
#15 - 2nd in NL Central
MIH - Dansby Swanson
MIP - Kyle Hendricks
PTW - Hayden Wesneski
FP - Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.
2023 Results
#17 - 83-79, 2nd in NL Central
Highest WAR (Position) - Nico Hoerner
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Steele
The Cubs were about what I thought they would be in 2023, even though they may have done it in a different way. Dansby Swanson, their prize of last off-season, was an All Star and got MVP votes despite being average at the plate. Kyle Hendricks had a pretty good bounce back year also. The surprises of 2023 were starter Justin Steele, infielder Nico Hoerner, and the resurrection of Cody Bellinger. They were in the conversation for a playoff spot right to the end, finishing only 1 game out of a Wild Card berth. By all accounts, 2023 was a pretty successful season from a big brand working their way back to the top.
Additions / Subtractions
So why did they fire their manager?!? David Ross, a fan favorite back to his playing days, is out. This move had nothing to do with David Ross and had everything to do with the fact that they could upgrade to Craig Counsell, who left the rival Brewers for the big market and the pig payday. Three other additions of note: one got a lot of press, one got a little press, and one got very little, but all were significant. First, Cody Bellinger finally re-signed with the Cubs after his huge turnaround season. Next, the Cubs signed Japanese import Shota Imanaga to replace Marcus Stroman in the rotation. He was a top pitcher in Japan and could turn into a huge signing. Then, a small trade of prospects brought to the Cubs Michael Busch, who will be on the Opening Day roster and is set to have a big impact for the Cubs.
Most Important Hitter
Cody Bellinger
One of the most fascinating free agency cases this off-season was Cody Bellinger. He's been an MVP, he's been one of the worst hitters in baseball, and last year he made a triumphant return to his old form. However, heading into free agency, which player do you pay? Bellinger wanted to be paid like the potential MVP candidate, while clubs were more skeptical that he was back. The Cubs, more out of necessity, finally paid him, but waited till after Spring Training had already started to do so. Now, they have significant funds invested in the Bellinger of 2023. If he continues to show that's once again who he is, the Cubs lineup could be quite potent. If not, the Cubs could be stuck with the contract they didn't want.
Most Important Pitcher
Shota Imanaga
I thought about going with Justin Steele here after his huge breakout in 2023, but Shota Imanaga might determine the true success of this pitching staff. Japanese pitchers have had mixed success in the majors. When they are good, they're really good. When they're not, they can really struggle. Imanaga has a chance to be really good and an ace of the staff like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Shohei Ohtani, but he also could fall into the category of Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, and Yusei Kikuchi.
Prospect to Watch
Pete Crow-Armstrong
The Cubs have a bright future, with 7 players in the Top 100 Prospects. The best of these is ready to break out in 2024 in Pete Crow-Armstrong. Ranked the 16th best prospect in all of baseball, Crow-Armstrong is a 21 year old lefty outfielder that the Cubs acquired a few years ago in the Javier Baez trade with the Mets. He is set to be a solid hitter with okay power, but his best tools are his speed and fielding ability. He is a future Gold Glove winner in centerfield. The Cubs are excited to give him the opportunity in 2024 to show what he's got.
2024 Predictions
4th in NL Central
The Cubs are on their way back to the top, so why are they so low? They are in a weird division that literally anyone could win. Someone has to finish in first, and someone has to finish in last. Where some divisions are unpredictable because of how many elite teams there are, this division is unpredictable because all the teams are good but not great. The Cubs are in the middle of that and have enough question marks that they could end up near the bottom of the standings.
Fearless Prediction
Pete Crow-Armstrong will win a 2024 Gold Glove.
Why wait? If Pete Crow-Armstrong is as good as they say he is, the defense will transfer over immediately. If the defense is as elite as it is supposed to be, this reality will only be held back by his playing time in his rookie season. If he hits, he will get enough playing time to make this happen.
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