It has been 9 months since my last Oscar Predictions! After an up-and-down spring season, the strange box office run through the summer, and now the bulk of the fall festivals, we have a much clearer look at what some of these races look like. I added some films into the race that were previously on my “other” list, since they had been delayed a year (Blitz), 2 years (Flint Strong The Fire Inside), or even 3 years (The Brutalist). I’m still waiting for any word on The Way of the Wind by Terrence Malick (on the list 6 straight years).
This race is much more open than last year. We didn’t have an Oppenheimer or anything to really take the lead early on, and adding in the strikes and whatnot, we have a slightly more low-key slate, which has more in common with 2020 than any other year. My previous frontrunner in most categories was Megalopolis, which was met with the most divisive reviews you can imagine at Cannes. I took that off my list, but I can see a resurgence below-the-line when actual humans see it in IMAX.
Read up on my September predictions, and be sure to SUBSCRIBE to the podcast for our ongoing discussions about the awards race for the next 6 months!
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. Anora (Sean Baker) - Baker’s movies are typically way too small to really have a chance. This one took the Cannes top prize, and it has gotten raves everywhere it has screened. The new Academy demographics will be quicker to embrace this film, which is about a stripper. I still have my reservations about it, but in a year with very little certainty, this movie being a part of the race is one thing that I am certain about. It is being distributed by Neon.
2. Blitz (Steve McQueen) - I broke this movie down last year, and it is still being overlooked in most circles. Most prognosticators will not even include movies that haven’t screened, which is a really good way to guarantee you are wrong. This is about a woman in WWII England looking for her missing son. McQueen already has one Best Picture to his name. It is being distributed by Apple. Everything about this points to this being a juggernaut. The world premiere will happen on October 9 at the London Film Festival.
3. The Brutalist (Brady Corbet) - I first broke this movie down in 2021, after which it got delayed and moved several times before finally getting its run this season. Its reviews imply that it is the next There Will Be Blood. Corbet is a deeply serious filmmaker, and this is about an architect immigrant in the US post-WWII. It is very long, but from everything that has been said about it, it is a masterpiece. Aside from last year, those movies don’t actually win anymore. It is being distributed by A24.
4. Emilia Perez (Jacques Audiard) - This is a bizarre epic musical crime comedy about a cartel leader trying to fake her death. Audiard has never really broken through with the Academy, but here he has a recognizable American cast. The reviews have been all over the board, but it is the kind of movie that will have the Everything Everywhere vote of being a big messy project that will speak to a younger generation. At least from what I understand. It is being distributed by Netflix.
5. September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum) - This is a late arrival in the race. It is directed by a Swiss producer, and has drawn comparisons to Argo. It is about the 1972 Munich Olympics hostage situation as followed by ABC Sports. The cast is intriguing, and the Academy loves when entertainers are the hero in the story. It is being distributed by Paramount.
6. Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve) - We all know the second chapter in the Dune saga. It was a huge box office movie back in the spring, and the original got nominated all over the place. There are rumors still of a third film, which could hurt the chances of this winning much, but it seems pretty secure in its nominations. It was distributed by Warner Brothers.
7. A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg) - This was a big hit all the way back at Sundance, and the trailer has been part of our lives for a long time. It has been a mainstay in almost every Oscar prognosticator’s predictions. Movies directed by actors always have an uphill climb, but this one seems breezy enough to be its own thing. It is about Jewish cousins who are traveling to Poland to honor their grandmother. It is being distributed by Searchlight.
8. Conclave (Edward Berger) - This has dropped a bit on my list since January, but it is still one of the main contenders. It is about the election of a new Pope, and it seems like Michael Clayton at the Vatican. It will be a hit with audiences, and it is one of the most high profile projects being released in the coming months. It is being distributed by Focus Features.
9. The Life of Chuck (Mike Flanagan) - This was a surprise winner of the People’s Choice Award in Toronto, which has a strong track record of pointing us to a contender. Last year I scoffed at American Fiction (rightfully so), but it still got nominated and actually over-performed. This is a Stephen King adaptation, and supposedly details on the film are best left unsaid. On paper, this doesn’t add up to an Oscar nominee, but the reviews make it seem like another film vying for that Everything Everywhere vote. It does not have US distribution yet.
10. Nosferatu (Robert Eggers) - This is a variation on Bram Stoker’s “Dracula”, and who better than horror auteur Eggers to take it on? It is one of the rare films that isn’t playing the festival game, and it has the juicy Christmas release. The trailers are astonishing, and this feels like the first time in Eggers’s career that he really has a chance to break through to the Academy’s taste. It is being distributed by Focus Features.
Others in contention
11. Sing Sing (Greg Kwedar) - This is like “The Day After Yesterday”: an unfortunate case in the industry. It is a lovely little film that was held onto after TIFF last year to maximize its awards potential, but then the confusing summer release and subsequent flop really hurt its chances. It was supposed to be this year’s Past Lives that steadily grew with word of mouth, but no one cared. That takes it from being one of the ones to beat to being outside the top 10. It was distributed by A24.
12. Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross) - I sniffed this one out way back in January, and early word on it is very strong. It is about a young black boy in 1962 Florida who is put in a reform school and met with abuse. It is based on a book, and it will likely be one of the most challenging films of the year. It is being distributed by Amazon.
13. The Piano Lesson (Malcolm Washington) - I had this pretty high on my January predictions as well. It is an August Wilson adaptation about a family and their heirloom piano. The festival reviews have been stellar. It is being distributed by Netflix.
14. A Complete Unknown (James Mangold) - This is a new addition to my predictions. It is Mangold’s second music biopic (Walk the Line), and this one is about Bob Dylan and his use of electric instruments and the controversy surrounding that. It is being distributed by Searchlight.
15. The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodovar) - This has gotten mixed reviews, but is beloved by the ones on its side. It is about a writer who reconnects with her estranged mother. It is always a little difficult to gauge a foreign filmmaker making their first English-language film, but I can see Almodovar’s melodrama translating well. It is being distributed by Warner Brothers.
16. Saturday Night (Jason Reitman) - This one kinda came out of nowhere. It is about the first ever production of SNL. It has an exciting young cast, and Reitman has had a couple Best Picture nominations 15+ years ago. It seems like a crowd-pleaser, and I think we could all use one of those every once in a while. It is being distributed by Sony.
17. Gladiator II (Ridley Scott) - This is a sequel no one ever asked for. It is about a Roman who takes up the Maximus mantle and fights against a tyrannical rule. It has a cool cast, and it has a late November release date. Do people still care about Gladiator? We will find out! This has a reported $300 million budget. It is being distributed by Paramount.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Steve McQueen - Blitz - I had this playing out this way when I mentioned the movie last year in my January 2023 predictions article. McQueen is a winner of Best Picture, but not Director. This could be the inverse, especially since the Best Picture frontrunner is a more low-key non-flashy direction. We really don’t know much about Blitz, but I can’t imagine this not being a big hit with the ever-growing British contingent of the Academy.
2. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist - This would be the obvious winner for Best Director in modern days, but the problem is he is an American. The Academy hates Americans, especially American directors. Damien Chazelle and The Daniels are the only Americans to win Best Director since 2009. This might be so undeniable that they can’t not award it, but it is a coming out party for the actor-turned-filmmaker.
3. Sean Baker - Anora - Sena Baker has been in and around the awards game for his whole career, but after the Cannes victory, this appears to be the one to break through to the Oscars in more than one category. It is going to have a wide release, all the hype and pedigree, and all the fans from all the fall festivals. The idea of a Sean Baker movie sweeping is mind-boggling, but it is also pretty exciting.
4. Tim Fehlbaum - September 5 - Fehlbaum is a little known Swiss director, which is of course a plus for him in this category. The movie has been anointed ever since it got its distribution deal, and it really does sound like something the Academy loves. A mixture of journalism and the Olympics. He will need to bring the European auteur flash to his film to appear here.
5. Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez - He has made a bunch of terrific films, but this one sounds absolutely wild. In a world where EEAAO wins Best Picture, then this Spanish comedy-crime-musical by a French director sounds like it fits right in. I actually feel more confident that he appears here than I do that the movie gets a BP nom.
Others in contention
6. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two - The movie has no momentum, and there is the lingering third part to lessen the need to award this movie with everything. It would be an old-fashioned movie to sweep, and I don’t think he can win without a Best Picture win. I think he gets left off again. It’s easier that way.
7. Edward Berger - Conclave - After his brutal and confusing snub two years ago, this one feels a lot more like the Academy’s speed. The problem is there are so many other foreign filmmakers stealing his thunder. This movie will need to be an absolute smash with universal praise for him to make it on the short list.
8. Mike Flanagan - The Life of Chuck - He is a Stephen King guy, but not like this. If the movie is acquired by some studio, then I can see this becoming more of a possibility. There has never been a Stephen King adaptation nominated for Best Director, despite multiple Best Picture noms.
9. Robert Eggers - Nosferatu - If the movie is as good as it looks, then I can see the Academy feeling the need to really prop up the future of genre filmmaking. It is the most intriguing wait and see case of the year.
10. Ridley Scott - Gladiator II - He was nominated for the original. I have been hearing way more hype around this movie than expected. To me, it was always sort of a joke that it could even exist, but Ridley Scott has his fans that flock whenever he makes a movie. His only problem is that he hasn’t made a good one in almost a decade.
11. Pedro Almodovar - The Room Next Door - The movie got mixed reviews out of the festivals, despite taking the Golden Lion at Venice. He is a past nominee in this category, so he is already part of the club. This is his first English language movie, which could be a bit of an issue if his sensibilities do not translate so well. See Wong Kar-Wai’s My Blueberry Nights as a possible comparison.
12. Mohammad Rasoulof - The Seed of the Sacred Fig - The movie was one of the movies most consistently mentioned out of Cannes as a standout. I could see this being a lone director nom if enough people see it. It is a 165 minute political crime drama out of Iran.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave - This category is a brutal one to narrow down. All the pundits seem to think it is like the last couple years where it is all sewn up, but I really don’t see it that way. Fiennes has not been nominated in 28 years, and he is probably one of the 5 best actors in the world without an Oscar. This could easily be his time.
2. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing - He broke through last year to get a nomination, and here he carries the movie that has universally positive reviews. A nomination seems to be a pretty easy sell, but can he win? He will need critics to really go to bat for him.
3. Adrien Brody - The Brutalist - The past winner has not been invited back since he took home gold in 2002. The movie is said to be a contender in every category, so why not invite in the lead? It is said to be the best work of his career, and he does consistently great work even in the quirkiest of projects.
4. Tom Hiddleston - The Life of Chuck - He would be a first-time nominee, and his TIFF-winning film is top of mind. It sounds like he isn’t a true lead, but the character is the lead. He is just ⅓ of the film, which sounds like Geoffrey Rush in Shine to me. Lock it in!
5. Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown - The trailers and everything are pretty startling. It is almost an every other year kinda thing with these music biopics. Is this Elvis/Bohemian Rhapsody/The United States vs. Billie Holliday? Or is it Rocketman/Back to Black, etc.? I lean with the former. Plus this would also act as a recognition of his work on Dune.
Others in contention
6. John David Washington - The Piano Lesson - The whole ensemble is in the running for nominations. He has not broken through just yet, but this could definitely change that. I feel like the movie needs to secure a BP nomination for him to make it past some of the heavy hitters above and below.
7. Sebastian Stan - A Different Man / The Apprentice - He will likely get some vote splitting. They also aren’t the easiest sells content-wise. He is ready for an Oscar nomination, but it may have to wait a few more years.
8. Daniel Craig - Queer - The movie didn’t get the reception that many were expecting out of the festivals. We have to remember that this is a Guadagnino movie, and none of them are universally praised. He could still break the Bond curse, but it will be an uphill climb for him.
9. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker: Folie a Deux - He won an Oscar for the first one, and he looks amazing in this one as well. He has the bit of controversy swirling around him skipping out on his Todd Haynes lead role at the last minute, but the movie is going to make $1 billion. That might be too much to ignore. Being nominated for the same character twice is not unheard of. It hasn’t happened in almost 20 years, though.
10. Paul Mescal - Gladiator II - He is already part of the club, which helps his cause. He will need to be undeniably great in this film to have a chance at taking it to the ceremony. The film overall has a pretty high bar to clear, and he will need to outshine everyone. I don’t know if he has it in him.
11. Gabriel LaBelle - Saturday Night - He might not be the confirmed lead in the film, but he was praised pretty consistently for his breakout role in The Fabelmans. He looks terrific in this. The movie will need to be a real crowd pleaser and smash box office hit for him to rise up the ranks.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun - She has two films in the running, but Blitz sounds like more of a supporting role. She plays a recovering alcoholic, and she has been nominated a handful of times. It is time she gets her win.
2. Amy Adams - Nightbitch - Marielle Heller gets her actors nominated. Amy Adams has had a dry spell recently after being nominated seemingly every year for a decade. The movie is a horror-comedy about a woman who might turn into a dog? I dunno, but she needs to win one eventually.
3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths - This one seems pretty secure for an also-ran nomination. She has been nominated for a Mike Leigh film in the past, and this will be a nice “welcome back” to the actress.
4. Mikey Madison - Anora - She has the reviews to win the thing, but she is a new face to most. That doesn’t always work. She might need a couple nominations before she gets her win.
5. Angelina Jolie - Maria - The reviews have been glowing, but not for the movie. So, it is basically what the last couple Pablo Larrain female biopics have been. She hasn't been nominated in 16 years. It is time to change that.
Others in contention
6. Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez - The Academy has changed a lot in the last decade, but are they ready to nominate a trans actor? I’m not so sure. I am leaving her off, but if she starts getting nominated everywhere, then the Cannes co-Best Actress winner will become a lock.
7. June Squibb - Thelma - This would be a really cool nomination. I don’t know if the movie has the legs to be remembered at the end of the year, but it is one of the most irreplaceable performances in quite a while. She hasn’t been nominated in 11 years. This is her first lead role…at age 94.
8. Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here - Reviews for this Walter Salles movie have been great. I don’t know too much about it, but she has been consistently singled out. If they want to get a foreign actress in there like usual, she could take that spot.
9. Nicole Kidman - Babygirl - Genre movies do not have a great track record getting acting nominations. She plays a CEO having an affair with Harris Dickinson. It’s an erotic thriller by the director of Bodies Bodies Bodies. She is always nominated, so I have to mention it.
10. Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door - She is supposedly a borderline supporting role, but she and Julianne Moore are both campaigning lead. Swinton fits in almost any director’s vision, and I can see her snagging a nom for Almodovar pretty easily. She is said to easily be the standout of the film.
11. Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie a Deux - I don’t know if she is lead or supporting, but on paper this should be a nominated role. We will have to see how audiences react, but given the festival premiere, she is on shaky ground.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain - He is a beloved TV actor now, but can he actually be winning an Oscar? That is a rare crossover. Usually it just ends up being a never-was-going-to-win Bryan Cranston in Trumbo type of situation. I love his chances. He appears to absolutely steal that movie.
2. Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing - He will be the feel-good story of the Oscar season. He is outstanding and charismatic and not a gimmick choice. I don’t know if he can win without the movie winning Best Picture, but he will be nominated.
3. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist - He is one of the best actors out there without a nomination. This sounds like his best chance since L.A. Confidential. The movie looks to contend in all categories, so I bet he will be brought along.
4. Samuel L. Jackson - The Piano Lesson - He was the favorite coming into the festival season. Supposedly he doesn’t have the screen time to really stand out, but without being nominated since Pulp Fiction, it could be enough of a persistent story to end that drought.
5. John Magaro - September 5 - I’m not entirely sure what he is in the movie, but he was the one everyone felt bad for overlooking last year for Past Lives. If the movie is in for a Best Picture run, then this is certainly its best chance at getting an acting nom to go with it.
Others in contention
6. Denzel Washington - Gladiator II - It is really hard to imagine this happening, but everyone is predicting it. He can steal the show, for sure. And he gets nominated for almost every serious role he does. I’m probably wrong in having him down this far.
7. Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown - It would be a bit of an abnormal nomination, but when he gets a good script, he lights it up! It could become a package deal with him and Chalamet if they really share as many scenes together as it appears.
8. Bill Skarsgard - Nosferatu - Is he lead or supporting? I don’t know. It would be interesting if he was the first Skarsgard to get in at the Oscars. The physical transformation thing gets nominations, but not necessarily for genre movies. This could be different, especially if it’s a Best Picture contender.
9. Mark Hamill - The Life of Chuck - The reviews all singled out Hamill’s performance. It would be a really cool scene to see a guy who has been so stuck in one character for his entire career finally get some recognition.
10. Stanley Tucci - Conclave - This seems like one of those performances that gets nominated that never had a chance to win.
11. John Lithgow - Conclave - I don’t know what his screen time will be like, but he really went for it last year in his couple scenes in Flower Moon. He hasn’t been nominated in over 40 years.
12. Harris Dickinson - Blitz - He also has Babygirl to get him in the conversation. He seems like one of those actors we know it is only a matter of time before he pops and wins one.
13. Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice - He is supposedly the emotional core of the film. Making a movie about the making of Donald Trump is going to be hard to sell to anyone, regardless of your opinion of the man. He might have enough fans of his TV work to pull him through awards season.
14. Mark Eidelshtein - Anora - He is said to have a real star making supporting role in Sean Baker’s movie. If he starts to pick up nominations throughout the season, then Anora could really put a stranglehold on its Best Picture prize.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson - She got the terrible snub for Till, but here she has been singled out as the star of this ensemble cast. It seems like a potential Viola Davis-type awards season sweep.
2. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez - She has never been nominated. She is said to be the standout in the film, and that should be enough to get her a nomination. She is also clearly the most likely in the cast to win something. We will have to see how the public views the film. If it really captures the imagination of audiences, then she could overtake Deadwyler.
3. Felicity Jones - The Brutalist - She hasn’t been nominated since 2014. Every review I have heard has praised her role and put her in the category of a nomination lock with almost no chance of winning. The “Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game” of this year.
4. Carrie Coon - His Three Daughters - Her role is the heart and soul of the film. She might not be the most obvious one to get a nomination, but they have been trying to get her nominated since Gone Girl. The movie is pretty small, but it is from Netflix. That will help her cause. She needs SAG to notice.
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys - Her status has come into question due to screen time, but this would be a nice validation nomination for King Richard, especially after the terrible rollout of Origin a year ago. The movie is supposedly really experimental, so maybe I am overselling this a tad.
Others in contention
6. Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez - She has made waves in recent years, especially on TV. She has made friends with Hollywood bigwigs. She is said to be terrific in the film, but just seeing her nominated for an acting award sounds a little strange.
7. Isabella Rosellini - Conclave - She is said to have a scene-stealing part. I can see her snagging a nomination without too much trouble. She is Hollywood royalty who has never received a nomination.
8. Natasha Lyonne - His Three Daughters - She has the showier role in film. This feels more like a Gotham and Spirit nomination than an Oscar nominee, but she is peaking right now in her popularity.
9. Saoirse Ronan - Blitz - If the movie is in for a Best Picture run, then watch out for her double nom.
10. Toni Collette - Juror #2 - The conversation has been around her performance since Eastwood’s movie was announced, and I don’t really know why. We really don’t know too much about the movie overall. She hasn’t been nominated since 1999.
11. Joan Chen - Didi - It is one of the strange summer releases for an indie film. She got pretty much universal acclaim when it came out. It feels like one that will only happen if this category really dries up.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Anora - Sean Baker - It would be a little weird if we had another Picture-Screenplay only combo, but this feels like the most secure win of any above-the-line category. There could be some other unforeseen win coming Anora’s way though.
2. Blitz - Steve McQueen - It is the kind of movie that needs the screenplay nomination to be taken seriously as a contender. McQueen has never been nominated for a screenplay Oscar.
3. A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg - Eisenberg wrote a movie that feels like a vintage Original Screenplay nominee. It is a little weird to view Eisenberg as an auteur, but the movie feels uniquely Eisenberg. I can see the movie making a run at Picture and snagging this win.
4. September 5 - Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder, Alex David - Movies about journalism have a terrific track record here. With the pedigree of the film, this already feels more likely than She Said. It should be more in line with Spotlight and of course Argo.
5. Hard Truths - Mike Leigh - Leigh rarely is overlooked by awards. It has been a while since he was last nominated in this category (2010, 5 career screenplay noms), but this movie feels like a swan song and they will want to recognize him.
Others in contention
6. The Brutalist - Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold - The epic scale sometimes hinders screenplay potential. The movie could just be that good like There Will Be Blood, but it could also be more like The Revenant. Is Corbet really the next in line of the great actors-turned-filmmakers? We will find out if he gets nominated in this category.
7. Challengers - Justin Kuritzkes - The movie’s first half of the year release date hurt its chances, but this is the one category that actually makes a lot of sense. It would be one of those Margin Call-type nominations when the Academy is saying without saying that it was actually the best of the year.
8. His Three Daughters - Azazel Jacobs - None of his movies have really hit, but this one is different. It is a writing and acting showcase. He could get the 20th Century Women-type lone screenplay nomination if Netflix really pushes it and the actresses all cancel each other out.
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig - Mohammad Rasoulof - The movie sounds terrific. Lone screenplay nominations for foreign films is not all that unheard of. If the movie starts to pick up some key mentions throughout the season, then I would watch out for this one.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. The Life of Chuck - Mike Flanagan - The life-affirming movie really feels like an Oscar winner for screenplay. I am not going to underestimate the TIFF winner again, which somehow went on to win this category last year. It needs to get picked up by someone soon.
2. Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John Whitfield - The movie has the goods in its script. It would be a little strange to see this group winning an Oscar, but it would take care of awarding the director, actor, and two of the real-life subjects all in one.
3. Conclave - Peter Straughan - The movie feels very serious, very writer-friendly, and exactly the type of thriller that the Academy eats up. And it appears to have a really timely subject.
4. Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes - This might be the best way to reward Ross, who made a very unique film exactly the way he wanted to. It might be a little too experimental to be fully embraced, so a screenplay nom makes the most sense.
5. Saturday Night - Jason Reitman, Gil Kenan - It is being pushed as Original, but the Academy is stubborn with their rules. In Original, I think it has a real chance to win. In Adapted, it will need to have some luck to end up here.
Others in contention
6. Emilia Perez - Jacques Audiard - Musicals do not fare well in screenplay categories. It sounds so wild, so that perceived creativity can push it forward. The problem is it needs to be in the other category. I have it just missing out in what will be seen as a snub.
7. Nosferatu - Robert Eggers - This is another one of those films that might be a bit too far out there to get major nominations. I am hoping it is this year’s District 9 and really overperforms against all odds.
8. The Piano Lesson - Malcolm Washington, Virgil Williams - The movie is based on a play, which causes it to be snubbed. Fences was the rare case where a talky play adaptation actually broke through.
9. Dune: Part Two - Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts - I am really low on Dune’s overall chances. It is in the same place that The Towers was in, which could get nominated everywhere, but it will underperform to prevent franchise fatigue before the epic conclusion comes out.
10. Nightbitch - Marielle Heller - The movie sounds and looks insane. It would have a better chance in Original.
11. The Room Next Door - Pedro Almodovar - If the European contingent really embraces this one, then Almodovar could easily be in the running for his second screenplay Oscar.
12. Queer - Justin Kuritzkes - If Challengers truly gets lost, then maybe the Academy can prop up the other Guadagnino-Kuritzkes collaboration.
13. Inside Out 2 - Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, Kelsey Mann - The original was nominated in Original, so we can’t totally count this out. It needs to bury The Wild Robot to have a realistic chance.
14. The Fire Inside - Barry Jenkins - The movie has gotten great reviews so far, and Jenkins is a past winner in this category. It is a little bizarre to see him not directing, but Rachel Morrison is a worthy replacement to champion. This could be a true underdog movie that captures America’s imagination out of nowhere with its Christmas release.
15. A Complete Unknown - Jay Cocks, James Mangold - Mangold and Cocks together is the only reason I have this mentioned here. They have both been nominated for screenplay Oscars before, but can they really do it for a music biopic? It will need to really be expertly written. Walk the Line, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Elvis all missed out on screenplay noms despite Best Picture nominations (or close to it).
Ok, those are my updates! What do you think of this Oscar race? What movies are you most looking forward to this fall? Who is most overdue for an Oscar? There are quite a few perennially snubbed actors and actresses in the running this year. Let me know in the comments!
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