We haven’t even seen this year’s Oscar nominations yet, but here we are with the ultimate lookahead. This is mostly a selfish endeavor, which I will constantly be looking at for reminders of what movies are coming out this year and for how the Oscar race might eventually look this fall. There are a bunch of major directors with films coming out, but as we have seen the past 5 years at the Oscars, it is mostly about finding the international films that are going to break through. Last year, I felt really good about Sentimental Value being my top choice. I uncovered Jessie Buckley’s eventual Oscar win, along with Benicio Del Toro, No Other Choice, and Sinners. What are this year’s eventual crown jewels? You’ll have to read up and find out!
Each year, I break down several films that eventually get delayed or go into years of post production. I am not going to include those in my yearly January predictions. Here is that list of films that could easily be nominated for Oscars, along with the number of years they have been on this list:
At the Sea (Kornel Mundruczo)
The Collaboration (Kwame Kewi-Armah; 3rd straight year)
Dreams (Michel Franco)
The Entertainment System Is Down (Ruben Ostlund)
The Governesses (Joe Talbot; 3rd straight year)
Hope (Na Hong-jin)
Huntington How to Make a Killing (John Patton Ford)
In the Blink of an Eye (Andrew Stanton; 2nd straight year)
The Island (Pawel Pawlikowski; 2nd straight year)
Jimpa (Sophia Hyde)
Klara and the Sun (Taika Waititi)
Lear Rex (Bernard Rose)
The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (Kenneth Branagh)
Long Day's Journey Into Night (Jonathan Kent; 3rd straight year)
Michael (Antoine Fuqua)
Miss You, Love You (Jim Rash)
Mother Mary (David Lowery; 2nd straight year)
Polaris (Lynne Ramsey; 2nd straight year)
Seacole (Charlie Stratton; 3rd straight year [may have been abandoned])
Silent Friend (Ildiko Inyedi; 2nd straight year)
The Bride! (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Rivals of Amziah King (Andrew Patterson)
Untitled Jordan Peele Project (2nd straight year)
Untitled Safdie Brothers Project (2nd straight year)
The Wave (Sebastian Lelio)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick; 7th straight year)
Ok, that list is getting a little ridiculous. This time, I decided to only include movies that were either firmly in post production as of December 2025 or are actually slated for a 2026 release. I trust IMDb a lot, probably to my detriment.
Without further ado, here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. Wild Horse Nine (Martin McDonagh) - This one checks all the boxes. McDonagh is a foreign born director, he is a 7-time nominee (and winner, but no one remembers that), and it has a unique cast. It is going to be time to shower one of the great directors with all the awards. It is about the 1973 military coup in Chile and centered on CIA agents. Add in the dark humor of McDonagh, and this could be the one we are talking about all Oscar season.
2. Artificial (Luca Guadagnino) - Guadagnino has been up and down in recent years, but he has been productive. This is the most timely of his movies, being about Sam Altman and OpenAI. It could wind up being like The Apprentice and no one will really want to touch it, or it could be something truly vital and speaking to our times. Guadagnino doesn’t make fluff or anything predictable. There is still leftover love from Challengers and outrage that it goose-egged in 2024. He was nominated in this category in 2017, his only nomination.
3. The Odyssey (Christopher Nolan) - This one is pretty self-explanatory. Nolan’s last movie won everything, and this one seems even more ambitious and has more box office appeal than his $1 billion grossing biopic about a guy making a bomb. This is a star studded adaptation of the Greek epic by Homer. It will be a monster hit, and it might be in the running to win the thing if it gets the kind of reviews and box office that it promises.
4. Fjord (Cristian Mungiu) - As we have seen the last five years, predicting the Oscars is all about finding the foreign director who is going to break through. This is my big foreign shot. Mungiu is probably most known for 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, and this movie is about a Romanian immigrant family who face persecution in the Norway judicial system. It sounds like the kind of story the Academy would go for, and the cast is appealing. Watch out for this at Cannes.
5. Misty Green (Chris Rock) - Sometimes you have to shoot your shot. Chris Rock directed a wonderful movie that was overlooked a decade ago with Top Five. Here he makes a movie about an actress trying to rebuild her career after meeting a person from her past. It could be the Jay Kelly of this year. The cast is really impressive, and it is listed as a drama. Getting Rock some love after being assaulted on live TV on their show would also be a classy move.
6. Digger (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) - The much anticipated Inarritu film looks ambitious as hell. It is listed as being about the most powerful man in the world who tries to prove that he is the savior of humanity. It sounds a bit like Bardo, but it also sounds and appears to be going more for Birdman. Inarritu is all over the map, but when he makes a movie, we have to pay attention. Aside from Bardo, his least successful film at the Oscars still got 2 acting nominations. He is one of the most beloved directors in the world, and combining with Tom Cruise, it ensures that this will be a hit.
7. Disclosure Day (Steven Spielberg) - All Spielberg movies are Best Picture contenders. The teaser trailer looks promising, and the plot details are kept under wraps. I expect this to be a huge box office hit and a comeback for Spielberg making sci-fi films. It could be another War of the Worlds, however.
8. The Man I Love (Ira Sachs) - Sometimes you just sense that it is time for a filmmaker to break into the Oscar game. Sachs has been making films consistently with excellent critics reviews for some 20 years now. This one is a musical about an artist in 1980s New York. The cast is great, and it could finally be something that feels more accessible than his indie ventures.
9. Pressure (Anthony Maras) - This is a British WWII movie about the days leading up to D-Day and the viability of the invasion. The only other movie that Maras has made was a disappointing one with Hotel Mumbai, but this one has the cast to die for and the pedigree to be a huge Oscar player. Or maybe I am being naive thinking that the Academy still goes for things like this…
10. Being Heumann (Sian Heder) - Sian Heder follows up her Best Picture win (CODA) with a biopic about the disability rights activist Judith Heumann. These kinds of movies don’t get nominated that often anymore, but it could be the right movie at the right time, or it could just be really good. CODA had the underdog appeal, and this also has Apple behind it for the campaign and strategic rollout.
Others in contention
11. The Gallerist (Cathy Yan) - This is a dark comedy about a gallerist who hosts an influencer for an emerging artist’s show. It will premiere at Sundance. Yan previously directed Birds of Prey, so she is a name in the industry. It really depends on just how dark this is. We don’t get The Substance all that often, but it is possible. The cast is elite.
12. The Social Reckoning (Aaron Sorkin) - This is a wildcard in 2026. Sorkin directs, which is not always the best sign. His screenplays are always a marvel, though. This is about Frances Haugen and her whistleblowing about Facebook in 2021. Will anyone want to relive more things about the election of 2020? Probably not, but it will be interesting to watch. I could see this being a timely hit, or it could be like Reality and be a glorified HBO original.
13. I Love Boosters (Boots Riley) - When the Academy expands its view to include movies like The Substance and Everything Everywhere All at Once, we cannot put anything past them. Boots Riley had a wild debut with Sorry to Bother You, and here we have another comedy sci-fi film about a group of shoplifters who target a fashion maven. The cast is cool. The potential is off the charts. It is being distributed by Neon. Just know that I uncovered this early.
14. Dune: Part Three (Denis Villeneuve) - I feel like we are almost over Dune at this point, seeing how the second movie barely held onto a Best Picture nomination. The third one comes out in December, which will be perfect timing to remind us of the majesty of the world that Villeneuve created, but it will need to really be something. Is this really Lord of the Rings? I have my doubts.
15. Rosebush Pruning (Karim Ainouz) - This is a remake of the Italian movie Fists in the Pocket from 1965. It is about a family with a genetic illness and the personal drama that ensues on their estate. The cast is fantastic. It is written by Yorgos Lanthimos’s main collaborator. It is a Mubi film, and it has a Brazilian director. Keep an eye out for this one in the fall.
16. The Death of Robin Hood (Michael Sarnoski) - After nearly taking Nicolas Cage back to the Oscars with Pig, Sarnoski made the third A Quiet Place movie to show his true directing prowess. Here, he takes on a more classic source material that is pretty self-explanatory. It is listed as a thriller, so it might be a big pile of nothing, but it also might be a genuinely cool take on something we have seen before. Hugh Jackman is the lead. A24 is the distributor.
17. Butterfly Jam (Kantemir Balagov) - The film by Russian director Balagov is about a Circassian boy who works at his father’s restaurant and has dreams of being a wrestler. The cast is cool. It is one of those that sounds intriguing, and it is worth mentioning. Balagov previously made Cannes hit and near-Oscar-nominee Beanpole in 2019.
18. Switzerland (Anton Corbijn) - Anton Corbijn (where has that guy been?) makes this movie about a guy who travels to Switzerland to get Patricia Highsmith to write another Ripley book. It sounds a little like Misery, but I can’t imagine that it is that dim. It is listed as a thriller. I really like the cast. I was high on Life in 2015 about James Dean, but that one never made any waves. Maybe Corbijn just really likes low-key artist stories like this.
19. Tony (Matt Johnson) - After BlackBerry, Johnson really chose an interesting topic for his next film (other than his continuing Nirvanna the Band saga). This is the life of the travel journalist Anthony Bourdain, starring Dominic Sessa. I can’t wait to see what the Canadian director does with this material.
20. Paper Tiger (James Gray) - Gray hasn’t really had an Oscar breakthrough in his impressive career. Even Armageddon Time was overlooked. This is about brothers pursuing the American Dream that get involved with the Russian mob. The cast features Adam Driver, Miles Teller, and Scarlett Johansson.
21. The Uprising (Paul Greengrass) - I have been a big fan of what Greengrass has done lately, but he hasn’t had a real Oscar contender since 2007. I will continue putting his films on this list though because they all sound amazing. This is about the 1381 English Peasants Revolt, where a farmer becomes the leader of a rebellion. The movie will be spirited and intense and probably overlooked by the Academy.
22. Narnia (Greta Gerwig) - This is the adaptation of “The Magician’s Nephew” in the CS Lewis classic series. It is an interesting undertaking by Gerwig, but I can see it. I didn’t expect Little Women from her either. The movie will need to immediately shed the preconceived notions about this series of adaptations and be a Gerwig movie for this to be realistic. It is a Netflix movie.
23. A. Rimbaud (Patrick Wang) - At this point, you really have to throw darts and see if anything sticks. This is a movie about French poet Arthur Rimbaud. Wang makes long, drawn-out, sensitive movies like In the Family and A Bread Factory. We live in a world where Drive My Car was nominated for Best Picture. This is possible.
24. Moulin (Laszlo Nemes) - This is a movie about the French resistance fighter Jean Moulin who opposed and was captured by the Gestapo. Nemes won an Oscar 11 years ago for Son of Saul, but he has had a couple flops since. If this one misses, then I won’t be as influenced by his past work. I really feel like this has potential to be that foreign film this year that rises up.
25. I Want Your Sex (Gregg Araki) - Yes, I am going there. All things are on the table. This is a movie about a guy who gets a job working for an artist, who makes him her sexual muse. It sounds a bit like Secretary, but Araki doing something that sounds a bit more mainstream has my attention. He is one of the most unique voices out there. I want to be right about this. It is playing at Sundance.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Luca Guadagnino - Artificial - Everyone seems to adore Guadagnino and his directing choices. We were all over After the Hunt until it flopped. I believe most people will be underestimating this movie, and it will premiere in Toronto and absolutely blow everyone away. He does the energetic and flash in his camerawork more than McDonagh, so I will predict the Picture-Director split this time.
2. Martin McDonagh - Wild Horse Nine - The only things that hold me back from predicting him to win this are that he has a flashier director as his competition, and he also missed a nomination in 2017. We could be in for an all-out sweep, but that is not as fun to predict. He was last nominated in this category in 2022.
3. Christopher Nolan - The Odyssey - It is rare to get a second Best Director Oscar. Inarritu won back-to-back, and Oliver Stone and Spielberg won a couple relatively close to each other. Nolan will certainly have the directing achievement of the year, but it will need to be winning Best Picture (or have one of the above two to be less flashy) for him to have a real chance at taking home two straight directing trophies.
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Digger - He has two Best Director wins to his name, so actually winning here would be a bit much. That would put him in the elite of the elite company. The movie looks huge though. Sometimes you gotta respect the swing when it lands. We are all fascinated by this project.
5. Ira Sachs - The Man I Love - The veteran director snags his first nomination here. This is absolutely the type of cool first timer that shows up consistently at the Oscars with the current membership. The movie is a musical, which is a hurdle, but his direction is always so distinct that I don’t see that being a true detriment.
Others in contention
6. Steven Spielberg - Disclosure Day - This is me hedging my bets with this film. Even Dune had trouble getting into the directing category, so it is possible they just reward the spectacle at the top of the ticket but go elsewhere for the filmmaker nominations.
7. Cristian Mungiu - Fjord - This will depend on if the movie plays more for thrills than for intimate drama, because Mungiu plays it both ways depending on the setting. I will put him behind the bigger names for now, but I fully expect him to be in the hunt.
8. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Three - He has been overlooked for each of the first two films in the series, despite the first one cleaning up everything below the line. He is a past nominee, so there isn’t really that hurdle. It is hard to fathom, but I will be safe by leaving him out, fully aware that this could be our eventual winner if they were waiting for the conclusion of the saga to reward it.
9. Anthony Maras - Pressure - He is a new director, so getting singled out over the legends above him will be a tough ask. This would be a similar situation that Edward Berger was in for All Quiet on the Western Front. That could be the barrier to an Oscar sweep if it is really that good.
10. Chris Rock - Misty Green - The movie would have to have unanimous reviews for him to get into the directing lineup. Actors turned directors are not the Academy’s thing anymore. Bradley Cooper got snubbed twice, Ben Affleck got snubbed for the Best Picture winner, etc. This movie has the potential to be one of the ones to beat, so it really depends on the performance of the films listed above.
11. Boots Riley - I Love Boosters - His directing was really unique and crazy with his debut film. The thing that we need to know is if this is him a bit more calmed down, or if this is more of the same and we are getting Lakeith Stanfield turning into a horse. I am guessing this movie hits with audience members, and Neon boosts Boots up the leaderboard.
12. Gregg Araki - I Want Your Sex - This is a big comeback for Araki, who hasn’t made a movie since 2014. He is absolutely capable of blowing everyone away with his directing. Something about this material must have really spoken to him. I can’t wait to see what it looks like. The cast has me a little worried and a little all-in.
13. Phil Lord, Chris Miller - Project Hail Mary - This is an adaptation of a book by the author of The Martian about an astronaut on a spacecraft with no memory of anything. Similarly, this looks a little goofy but with an undeniably likable star at its center. Lord and Miller won an Oscar in 2018 for Spider-Verse, but this is a whole different animal. The release date is the biggest point of concern here. They will need a full year of love for the movie for their directing to be remembered, but they have a lot of fans out there.
14. Karim Ainouz - Rosebush Pruning - His most notable movie was probably Firebrand from 2023. He is a Brazilian director (which is always a plus for Academy members), and the movie has the makings of one of those intimate dramas that can really get under the skin of the audience. We will see if he has enough to do to move up this list.
15. Kantemir Balagov - Butterfly Jam - It is all about finding the foreign director who is ready for his English language debut. This movie sounds like a pretty intimate drama, and the cast reinforces that. This is probably more of the Spirit Awards thing than the Oscars, but they can cross over. Balagov will need to make the circus scenes something special to stand out in this group.
16. Anton Corbijn - Switzerland - His direction of Control and A Most Wanted Man were both fantastic in their own ways. The American is probably his most popular work. I always thought he would make a real killer Oscar vehicle, but he has been absent from the spotlight for a while. This sounds really fun, though.
17. Michael Sarnoski - The Death of Robin Hood - I can see this coming out under the radar and being Sarnoski’s Assassination of Jesse James type of movie. If he has that in him, then having him at #17 is way too low.
18. Cathy Yan - The Gallerist - She has the flash as a director to stand out. Being a foreign born director also helps her cause. If the comedy thriller really hits, then it will be easy to point to the auteur as being the reason for it.
19. Greta Gerwig - Narnia - She was snubbed for Barbie, which is the only thing she has done with any sort of fantasy element to it. This has the Oscar release date of Thanksgiving week, and it will require even more from her for it to really click.
20. James Gray - Paper Tiger - When one one of his movies inevitably gets nominated for something, he will likely get brought along due to his true auteur sensibilities. This feels like something he would have made 25 years ago, but with all the experiences he has had since, maybe this will be more reflection than glorification.
21. Patrick Wang - A. Rimbaud - If the movie is really mentioned in the Best Picture category above, then this has to be here as well. He is a phenomenal director, but he is subtle. It will need to be a unanimous critics push for him to get in.
22. Werner Herzog - Bucking Fastard - This is a movie about twin sisters in search of an imaginary land where true love is possible, so they start digging a tunnel. It sounds pretty wild. Herzog is a legend at this point, previously nominated in 2008 for Documentary Feature. This should be astonishing to watch. His movies don’t usually have much crossover appeal, but with Kate and Rooney Mara, why not?
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Andrew Scott - Pressure - He plays a meteorologist soldier who must give a weather forecast to the Allies to see if D-Day is viable or not. That is a hell of a premise, and he is a beloved actor. I wouldn’t put it past the Academy to nominate him for just a few minutes on screen this year, but this is the type of juicy breakthrough role for him to become a regular in the Oscar game.
2. Andrew Garfield - Artificial - Garfield is set to have a huge year. Here he plays Sam Altman, and he will likely be just as polarizing of a figure as Jesse Eisenberg was as Mark Zuckerberg. He was being pushed hard for After the Hunt, but since the movie sucked, his commendable performance will be lost in time. This movie checks all the right boxes, and his popularity will get him his third nomination.
3. Tom Cruise - Digger - We all tried to sneak him into the lineup in 2022. Here, he gets a big ambitious movie directed by one of the best in the world. Inarritu gets his actors nominated. If the movie is really that good, it would be shocking if Cruise doesn’t land his first acting nom in 27 years.
4. John Malkovich - Wild Horse Nine - It has been 33 years since his last nomination, which is insane. He is still one of the most interesting actors to watch, and he shines when he has a great director pushing his buttons. I don’t know for sure that he is the lead in the Best Picture frontrunner, but if he is, I imagine he will be right in the running. McDonagh’s leads consistently get nominated by the Oscars and Globes.
5. Javier Bardem - The Beloved - This is a Spanish film by Rodrigo Sorogoyen (The Beasts), and it is about a father-daughter relationship between a film director and an actress, reuniting while location scouting for a new film. It sounds a bit like Sentimental Value, but these kinds of themes are always welcomed with Academy voters. 2025 was kind to movies about making movies. Bardem has become a consistent nominee over the past 25 years.
Others in contention
6. Cooper Hoffman - I Want Your Sex - I feel like after his last few movies that it is only a matter of time before the second generation actor gets his big Oscar breakthrough. Is it a Gregg Araki erotic thriller? Maybe? Probably not, but I can see him getting a few shocking mentions throughout the season and have us wondering if this is actually happening. Araki is such a polarizing director, but if his niche crosses over its appeal to a wider audience, then I can see it.
7. Matt Damon - The Odyssey - Damon tried his hardest to break the cycle in Oppenheimer, and some think he gave the best performance in the movie as a result. He is one of the most likable actors out there, and if the movie is a real Oscar player, then he will be part of the conversation by default.
8. Dominic Sessa - Tony - He had to be agonizingly close to a nomination for The Holdovers. This is going to be his first official starring role, and it has all kinds of potential. It has A24 behind it. He has the swagger to pull off Bourain. It would be an out-there choice for the Academy, but I can see it happening.
9. Paul Dano - The Chaperones - Paul Dano has been in the news recently, hasn’t he? This is a movie by India Donaldson (Good One), and it is about a drug dealer and some others on a road trip across the country. The last road trip Dano movie nearly won Best Picture in 2006. This has a hot younger cast and Dano, who everyone evidently adores except Tarantino.
10. Chiwetel Ejiofor - Tonight at Noon - Ejiofor is still looking for his second nomination after being the lead in 2013 Best Picture winner. This is by Michael Almereyda (Experimenter), and it is about a writer who is struggling with his marriage and his writing. It could be entirely too small. The cast implies that it is very indie, but sometimes those are hits. He stars opposite Lauren Amborse.
11. Talha Akdogan - Butterfly Jam - He is the young lead in Beanpole director Balagov’s new film. Getting into the Best Actor lineup as a child is almost impossible, but the movie could just be that good. Or they could fraud him into supporting. Yeah, that’s probably it.
12. Blake Draper - A. Rimbaud - This is an actor I am not familiar with, but he plays the title role of Arthur Rimbaud, the poet. I don’t really have much precedent for including him, but I sorta felt like I had to.
13. Andrew Garfield - The Uprising - He also has Artificial, as mentioned above. He plays the farmer who leads the rebellion against King Richard II in 1381. He can fit in any era. I can see him being extraordinary here and hopefully doesn’t split votes with himself.
14. Brad Pitt - The Adventures of Cliff Booth - David Fincher directing a Quentin Tarantino script sounds like something I would have dreamed up in high school. Brad Pitt continues the saga of his Oscar winning role in this Netflix movie about Booth becoming a notorious Hollywood fixer. I don’t know what to expect here, but even the lesser Fincher films have been fantastic. Pitt needs to do something different with the character to make this nomination realistic. It is increasingly rare to get nominated for the same character twice.
15. Rami Malek - The Man I Love - Are the Academy members wanting to give him a validation nomination? I suspect that they would be open to it. Being in a musical, we can see that he can actually sing. He is always great in everything, but this feels like the kind of movie choice that could strike a chord with members.
16. Alden Ehrenreich - Switzerland - He has been trying to capitalize on that leading role in the Coen Brothers film for 10 years now. If the movie really goes dark, then he will absolutely own that lead role. It depends on if the Academy can get behind his character or not.
17. Miles Teller - Paper Tiger - When is this guy going to get an Oscar nomination? James Gray is a fantastic director for him to really show what he can do. He will need to outshine a cast of stars, but he can do it.
18. Ryan Gosling - Project Hail Mary - Everyone loves Ryan Gosling. Can he pull a Matt Damon or a Tom Hanks and really be by himself for a whole movie and leave us completely entertained? Probably, but the early release date could hurt his chances to be remembered at the end of the year.
19. Keanu Reeves - Outcome - This is a Jonah Hill directed movie (he has 2 of those this year), and it is about an actor who is threatened by a bizarre video from his past that has resurfaced. It probably is nothing, but it is an Apple distributed film, and the first Hill movie was an underdog hit. Everyone loves Keanu Reeves. I can see a nomination in his future.
20. Gilles Lellouche - Moulin - He plays the lead Jena Moulin in Laszlo Nemes’s film. He has been in some notable foreign films over the years. This movie could be the underdog foreign film that hits in every category. I don’t think it is exactly Life Is Beautiful, but it could approach a similar type of notoriety.
21. Robert Pattinson - Here Comes the Flood - Every year I come across a few Pattinson movies that can bring him his long deserved first nomination. This one is by Fernando Meirelles, and it is about heists and double crosses amongst a group of criminals. It is a Netflix movie, and if he can outduel his costar Denzel Washington, then this becomes a real possibility. It could be his version of Ethan Hawke in Training Day.
22. Zac Efron - Famous - This is a shot in the dark. It is directed by Jody Hill, who is most known for being Danny McBride’s creative partner, and it is about a loser who looks like a famous actor, and he uses that to his advantage to try to develop a theater career. It sounds really weird, but it is A24. Efron got close to a nom a couple years ago, but this will need to be a widespread hit.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Ruth Madeley - Being Heumann - She would be a newcomer in the eyes of American filmgoers. She has more of a British TV career to this point. She plays the title character, the disability rights activist. Sometimes you have to predict an outside the box pick in order to get anything right. Lock it in!
2. Rosalind Eleazer - Misty Green - She is an actress that I am not entirely familiar with. It appears she is more of a TV actor, but she is the title character in Chris Rock’s film about a struggling actress. If the movie is in for some of the top awards, then she has to have killed it. Watch out for her to take most of the breakthrough acting awards at the precursors.
3. Jennifer Lopez - The Last Mrs. Parrish - This is a Netflix movie directed by Robert Zemeckis, and it is about a con artist who scams a wealthy couple. She plays the wife. She has been close to getting a nom a couple times, and this could be the one that does it. It is written by Oscar nominees Andrea Berloff (Straight Outta Compton) and John Gatins (Flight). Directed by an Oscar winner. We will see!
4. Julianne Moore - Untitled Eisenberg Film - This is an A24 musical comedy by the recent Oscar nominated screenwriter of A Real Pain Jesse Eisenberg. She plays a shy woman who is cast in a local musical and loses herself into the role. It sounds like it has a bit of Ghostlight in it. Julianne Moore is always a highlight whenever she appears in a movie. Even in something like Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s Don Jon, she gives a wonderful performance in a role that didn’t need it. Eisenberg is a legit director too.
5. Keke Palmer - I Love Boosters - She has been knocking on the door for a while now. It is only a matter of time before she gets a nomination. She might not even be the lead, but in a cast that features terrific supporting players, she will shine above them all.
Others in contention
6. Naomi Watts - The Housewife - It has been a while for Watts. This is the debut film by Ben Shirinian, and it is about a journalist who tracks down a potential Nazi officer living in New York. She appears to play the wife of the officer, who charms the journalist. Is she the lead? I have no idea. This sounds like a winner, though.
7. Lea Seydoux - Gentle Monster - This is the new film by Marie Kreutzer (Corsage), and it is about a renowned pianist who relocates out to the country. Seydoux feels like a future Oscar nominee. She can really do anything, but she is always overshadowed by her costars. This is her movie, and I think she makes a run at it.
8. Renate Reinsve - Fjord - She easily could get nominated this year, so this could be a little tough being right after. I expect her to be a consistent force in the industry from now on, but I am guessing she probably just misses her second go at it in Cristian Mungiu’s film.
9. Natalie Portman - The Gallerist - She hasn’t been nominated in 10 years. The movie seems really sinister, and she won for Black Swan, which was also set in a non-traditional setting for an Oscar film. She can really dial it up when she wants to.
10. Margaret Qualley - Love of Your Life - This is a Rachel Morrison-directed film (The Fire Inside), and it is about a nurse whose life is upended by a romantic interest. It is an Amazon movie with a very cool cast. It is written by the writer of Nyad. She is capable of becoming an Oscar winner one day. Maybe this year is too early, but this role sounds really good.
11. Mikey Madison - The Social Reckoning - Is she in line to get her second nomination already? I am not so sure, but it all depends on how she handles the Sorkin dialogue. If she nails it, then she could easily be one of the ones to beat in the category.
12. Tao Okamoto - Soudain - This is a Ryusuke Hamaguchi movie (Drive My Car) about two scholars who have deep conversations about mortality and life. If it is done right, then it could be another huge hit for Hamaguchi. Okamoto previously was in Batman v Superman and Westworld, so she is a recognizable face to American audiences.
13. Barbara Lennie - Bitter Christmas - This is a Pedro Almodovar movie about an ad executive whose mother dies, so dives deeper into her work as a result. Almodovar’s leading ladies always deserve a look by the Academy. I am not familiar with Lennie’s work, but it appears maybe Penelope Cruz has aged out of these roles. Maybe Lennie is next in line!
14. Michelle Williams - A Place in Hell - This is a Neon film directed by Chloe Domont (Fair Play), and it is about two women at a high-profile criminal law firm. Fair Play had some things that felt like something that could be considered for awards, but this will need to be a bit more polished. She plays opposite Daisy Edgar-Jones.
15. Iliza Shlesinger - Chasing Summer - This is a movie Shlesinger wrote herself about a woman who heads to her hometown, where she reunites with friends and former flames. These kinds of indie movies are a dime a dozen, but they hit sometimes too. It is directed by Josephine Decker, who made 2020’s Shirley. Shlesinger is mostly a comic, so it will be a bit of a step out if this were actually an Oscar player.
16. Marion Cotillard - Roma elastica - I have been searching for the Cotillard return to the Oscars for years now. Here, she plays an actress shooting a film in Rome in the 1980s, directed by French director Bertrand Mandico. I expect this to have a Cannes premiere, and she could snag her first nomination in 12 years.
17. Pamela Anderson - Rosebush Pruning - She plays the mother in the Karim Ainouz drama-thriller about a family with a genetic illness. She got really close to a nomination in 2024, so it is good to see her still taking swings. I probably have her a bit low, but I will be cautious with this one. I don’t want to overpredict something that might end up being seen by like 15 people.
18. Ludna Azabal - Hot Water - This is the debut film by Razmi Bashour about a mother and son who road trip west. Azabal has previously appeared in movies such as Incendies and Body of Lies. It’s a road trip movie! It will premiere at Sundance.
19. Jenny Slate - Carousel - She stars in Rachel Lambert’s film about a guy whose life is upended when his high school flame returns. She has shown a lot of range lately, and if she really digs into a character like this then I can see this happening. Maybe they would push her supporting to Chris Pine’s lead.
20. Alison Brie - The Revisionist - This is a movie about a novelist who loses her grip on reality when she starts putting real people in her work. It is the first film by Alex Vlack. At this point, you have to jot down movies with interesting premises and hope you don’t look like an idiot. Brie being the lead in a movie that is strictly a drama has my attention, though.
21. Olivia Wilde - I Want Your Sex - She plays the artist in Gregg Araki’s erotic thriller. She is capable of giving an Oscar caliber performance. This will be something she has never touched, and I can’t wait to see what that looks like. Wilde with Cooper Hoffman is as mismatched of a pair as I could ever dream up. I love it.
22. Zendaya - The Drama - This is probably a foolish prediction, but this is the Kristoffer Borgli film (Dream Scenario) about a couple whose relationship is thrown in a whirlwind when some details about each other come to light. The trailer made waves. It is an A24 film. She is co-lead with Robert Pattinson. The early release date of April probably kills its chances, but I have to mention it.
23. Kate Mara - Bucking Fastard - She needs to get a nomination at some point. I didn’t choose her over Rooney for this spot for any particular reason, but I just wanted to mention it here in case this movie really takes off.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. John Goodman - Digger - I don’t know what his role entails, but he has been in and around the awards game his whole career. He is never singled out, though. He was in back-to-back Best Picture winners 15 years ago. He steals the show in multiple Coen Brothers movies. Maybe Inarritu uses what makes Goodman such a delight on screen and gives him his long-deserved first nomination/win.
2. Antonio Banderas - Tony - He plays the restaurant owner who first hires Anthony Bourdain. He has an Oscar nomination under his belt, so he doesn’t need to break that barrier. I don’t know entirely what he will be asked to do, but if he is some strict, horrifying owner of the place, then I can see him giving a legendary dick performance.
3. Steve Buscemi - Wild Horse Nine - He is still the best actor in the world without an Oscar nomination. Being directed by the great Martin McDonagh could be his ticket. McDonagh has gotten 7 of his actors nominated in his last two films. Buscemi is still more than capable of stealing a movie, and his demeanor should absolutely shine in with that brand of dark humor.
4. Brendan Fraser - Pressure - The validation nomination is on the way for Fraser. He plays Dwight D. Eisenhower in this movie about the days leading up to D-Day. There are tons of interesting casting choices in this film, but this one takes the cake.
5. Yura Borisov - Artificial - I can see Burisov becoming a favorite in the industry. Here, he plays Ilya Sutskever, a computer scientist and member of Sam Altman’s board at OpenAI. Even when he was trying to fade into the background of Anora, he still stole the show. I imagine Guadagnino will bring out everything that makes him such a unique and intriguing screen presence.
Others in contention
6. Paul Giamatti - Untitled Eisenberg Film - I am assuming he plays the enigmatic director in the film that pushes Julianne Moore’s character, which is amazing casting. He should be nominated every year. Can he sing? How much of a musical is this actually? We will see, but cast as a theater director, I have to see this.
7. Eben Moss-Bachrach - The Man I Love - The whole TV actor becoming Oscar nominees thing has been up-and-down in the last couple years, but he is genuinely really well liked. I don’t know what his part entails. He also has his Dog Day Afternoon Broadway show premiering in the spring, so he will be top of mind for actors of all kinds.
8. Jeremy Allen White - The Social Reckoning - He plays Jeff Horowitz, a Wall Street Journal reporter who helps Frances Haugen get her story out there in the Facebook leak in 2021. He is probably missing out on a nomination this year, so maybe the Academy wants to prop him up the next chance they get. It would also be cool to see him and Moss-Bachrach get nominated the same year, like Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin in 2024.
9. Bill Skarsgard - The Death of Robin Hood - There is at least one movie every year that I feel like could be Skarsgard’s ticket to the Oscars, and it is always a bit too niche. Here, he plays Little John, which is not really the kind of role you expect from him. He could be the Casey Affleck in Jesse James of the film.
10. Aaron Taylor-Johnson - Cry to Heaven - This is a Tom Ford film (A Single Man) about a nobleman who is castrated by his half-brother and rises to fame as a soprano in the opera. I don’t know what role he plays, but he won a Golden Globe for the last Tom Ford movie, so maybe this is finally the film that puts him in the Oscar five.
11. Daniel Kaluuya - Misty Green - Kaluuya hasn’t really had much of a chance to get invited back since taking the Oscar in 2020. It is unclear what role he plays in Chris Rock’s movie, but I had to take a stab at one of the supporting players.
12. Mark Ruffalo - Being Heumann - Ruffalo appears in these types of “important” movies all the time, to varying success. Here, he plays an attorney and the antagonist in the story of the 504 Sit-in in 1977. He can steal every scene when given the ability to play a douchebag.
13. Sebastian Stan - Fjord - Seeing him listed in the cast of a Cristian Mungiu film is certainly intriguing. He is part of the club, so he doesn’t have to break through any barrier with the Academy. It will be interesting to see if he speaks Romanian or if it is more like Sentimental Value with a third of the movie in English.
14. Barry Keoghan - Butterfly Jam - I do not know the part he plays in Kantemir Balagov’s film, but he is one of the best actors out there right now. I assume this will be more like his part in Bird than in Banshees, but it is worth mentioning because I have faith in this project.
15. Christian Bale - Madden - The teaser trailer for David O. Russell’s film about the beginning stages of the Madden video game was hilarious. Christian Bale looks like an uncanny Al Davis, which is typical in how he always disappears into his roles.The movie is probably just a popcorn movie, but it is an Amazon film and a director the Academy loves.
16. F. Murray Abraham - Out of This World - This is a movie by Spanish director Albert Serra about an American who travels to Russia during the Ukrainian war looking for a solution to an economic dispute. Riley Keough is the lead. It is pretty wild that Abraham has just one nomination/win over 40 years ago. Maybe this is the type of movie that brings him back to the spotlight.
17. Tom Holland - The Odyssey - I am just throwing darts in this category sometimes. He has never approached an Oscar nomination, but here he has the big epic and something he has never done before. It is possible that he steals the show in a supporting turn.
18. Franz Rogowski - Enemies - The movie is directed by breakout director Henry Dunham, and it is about a detective in a battle of wits with a contract killer. It stars Austin Butler and Jeremy Allen White and is distributed by A24. This is a fascinating project, and Rogowski’s involvement has piqued my interest.
19. Lars Eidinger - Moulin - He plays Klaus Barbie in the French Resistance fighter film. That is a juicy role. He is a recognizable character actor from Germany. After someone like Yura Borisov got an Oscar nomination, we have to look in all corners of the world for our predictions.
20. Jeremy Strong - The Social Reckoning - He plays Mark Zuckerberg, which is fascinating casting. It will not be the role that Jesse Eisenberg got a nomination for. Zuckerberg is a unique individual, but I don’t think enough is there for that character to stand out in this cast. Eisenberg made it an Eisenberg movie. I don’t know if Strong has that in him.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Helen Mirren - Switzerland - She plays author Patricia Highsmith. It has been a while for Mirren, who hasn’t been invited back since 2009. It depends on what the role really asks of her. Highsmith isn’t exactly a celebrity, so she can do her own interpretation of whatever with her. I really like this stab for early January.
2. Kerry Condon - Pressure - She plays Eisenhower’s confidante in the Anthony Maras WWI film. She is always wonderful to see on screen, and if this is the major player that it promises to be, she will be swept in for her second nomination in the last 5 years.
3. Meryl Streep - Narnia - She hasn’t been nominated since The Post in 2017. That is the longest stretch of her career by far. She plays Aslan, the iconic lion. Or does she? Apparently the movie is in post-production and her involvement is still unconfirmed. How is that possible? She gets nominated if she is indeed in the movie. If not, I will just say this was actually for The Devil Wears Prada 2.
4. Penelope Cruz - The Invite - This is the new Olivia Wilde-directed movie (Booksmart), and it is a Sundance premiere. It is about a married couple in a rut, when they get invited to their neighbors’ house for an orgy. Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Wilde round out the foursome. It is written by the always wonderful Rashida Jones and Will McCormack. Penelope Cruz is always a highlight of whatever movie she is in, and this is the kind of thing that will put the full range of what she can do on display. It is listed as a comedy, but I imagine it will be a lot more sinister than that. It is a remake of a Spanish film from 2020.
5. Catherine Deneuve - Gentle Monster - She hasn’t been nominated since 1992’s Indochine. I do not know what her role is, but the movie just feels like an Oscar thing. If Seydoux is in the running for a lead nomination, I have to think that Deneuve is right there too.
Others in contention
6. Glenn Close - The Black Ball - She is always worth mentioning until she finally wins one. This is a film by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, and it is a movie that sounds a bit like The Hours in how it connects three men over three different time periods. I don’t know what Glenn Close is doing in this Spanish language movie, but why not?
7. Sandra Huller - Digger - Seeing her name on projects now just gives off some flashing lights. Her year in 2024 was legendary, leading multiple foreign films to the Best Picture lineup. Here, she doesn’t have to do the heavy lifting with Tom Cruise at the top of the ticket. I expect her to be a standout in the cast.
8. Demi Moore - I Love Boosters - I imagine that she plays the fashion maven in Boots Riley’s film. It will be a cool twist if we all this sudden get Demi Moore as a regular Oscar contender.
9. Rebecca Hall - The Man I Love - She will get a nomination at some point. Being in an Ira Sachs film will be a great thing for her reputation, but it will also probably be a little too subtle to snag the nomination. She will be in the precursor mentions for sure.
10. Esme Creed-Miles - Sense and Sensibility - This is a new adaptation of the Jane Austen book by Georgia Oakley (Blue Jean in 2022), and it could be something. Creed-Miles plays Marianne, which Kate Winslet was nominated for playing in 1995. She is probably most known for being a TV actor in things like The Sandman, but this is a juicy role that feels like one the Academy might not mind revisiting. The lead is Daisy Edgar-Jones.
11. Danielle Deadwyler - The Chaperones - When will she finally get that nomination that has been ripped from her at the last minute multiple times? I don’t know what her role is in this movie, but her involvement in what sounds like a pretty standard road trip indie stands out to me.
12. Riley Keough - Butterfly Jam - I feel like she has an Oscar in her future, but it needs to be the right material and for something that people are going to see. This one might not be either, but I am really anticipating seeing what she does in a movie with Barry Keoghan.
13. Noemie Merlant - Roma elastica - She has been knocking on the door for a little while now. I don’t know the part she plays, but if anyone regrets not getting her a nomination for Tar, then this could be remembered at the year’s end.
14. Emilia Jones - Tony - She plays Bourdain’s love interest in Matt Johnson’s biopic about the travel documentarian. She was the lead of a Best Picture winner 5 years ago, but she hasn’t yet capitalized on that. Maybe she can sneak a nom here if the movie really is a hit.
15. Parker Posey - Wild Horse Nine - She has never been nominated, nor has she really ever been close. It is the Best Picture frontrunner, so that means that the Academy would over-nominated it. I imagine her fitting into a McDonagh ensemble just as seamlessly as Kerry Condon did in The Banshees of Inisherin.
16. Monica Barbaro - Artificial - She is coming off her nomination for A Complete Unknown. She plays Mira Murati, the chief technology officer at OpenAI. If the movie is really a Best Picture contender, then she could easily be swept in like she was in 2024.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Wild Horse Nine - Martin McDonagh - He has been nominated in this category three times, being a real threat to win it all three. If the Academy really goes for the movie, then it won’t matter if this is his best work or not, he may just win it by default. And even if it isn’t winning Best Picture, it could be “his time”. The movie has the makings of a classic, but it also doesn’t sound on paper like something that will be the flashiest of scripts. It is pretty clearly the leader at this point.
2. Butterfly Jam - Kantemir Balagov, Marina Stepnova - This is one of my real stabs. The indie movie of the year could be this movie about a young Circassian boy torn between his loyalty to family and his dreams. It is probably not going to be big enough, but it also could really land at something like Toronto. Or it could pick up a prize at Cannes. Just watch for this one. I have a good feeling about it.
3. Artificial - Simon Rich - His only film work was writing An American Pickle, so he doesn’t exactly have the cache in the industry to get in on name alone. His movie will be one that relies on its script, and since it was Guadagnino who took it on, I am betting that it is a banger.
4. Misty Green - Chris Rock - If it is done right, this could be the type of movie that wins this award without any other major wins. The problem is that the main Best Picture contenders are above it. 20 years ago, this could have emerged as a winner in the category. Chris Rock has a ton of fans out there.
5. Digger - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelarius, Sabrina Berman - This category is so tough. This is the type of movie that could miss in this category, but with most of the Oscar-winning screenwriting team together from Birdman, it would be foolish to bet against Inarritu and company. If this flops, then that’s two in a row and we can drop him down the “Must Predict” list for a while.
Others in contention
6. The Man I Love - Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias - An original musical is always going to be more of a threat in the screenplay categories than a stage adaptation. If this makes it into the nominated five, then we for sure will see this putting up a fight in the Best Picture category.
7. I Love Boosters - Boots Riley - I really wanted to rank this higher, but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. He feels like the type of filmmaker who could have his Jordan Peele moment, and this movie distributed by Neon in May might just be the film that vaults him into another tier of filmmaker.
8. Pressure - Anthony Maras, David Haig - The movie is in play in all categories. They are relative newcomers, Haig being more of an actor than a writer. That can be a hurdle to overcome in the Original Screenplay category if it isn’t a screenplay with a lot of flashy dialogue. We will see how this develops.
9. Untitled Eisenberg Film - Jesse Eisenberg - He was nominated for his first screenplay two years ago. Musicals always have an uphill climb to get screenplay mentions, but if this is really an Eisenberg movie with his sensibilities, but adding in some songs, this sounds like Oscar catnip.
10. Disclosure Day - Steven Spielberg, David Koepp - Spielberg is really trying to add a screenplay Oscar to his resume. Winning an Oscar for a sci-fi script would really be a game changer, but I can’t see it rising up that high. Not even Star Wars could achieve that.
11. Tony - Todd Bartels, Lou Howe - There isn’t a lot to go on here with these two screenwriters. The movie will need to be a monster hit for the script to get singled out.
12. The Gallerist - Cathy Yan, James Pederson - Being one of the contenders for Best Picture means you almost have to put it on this longlist. We will see what Yan can do as a screenwriter. Her only other screenwriting credit is for Dead Pigs, a movie from 2018 that I have not seen.
13. Fjord - Cristian Mungiu - Even if the movie is a player for Best Picture, the screenplay awards don’t necessarily come with it. I’m Still Here got in with just an Actress nomination. This is probably too low, but this year of Original Screenplay is really stacked with up-and-coming writers and established veterans. I am being a little cautious here.
14. I Want Your Sex - Gregg Araki, Karley Sciortino - The movie sounds like a wild ride, and sometimes that is rewarded in this category. The movie will need to actually have some heart to go with the eroticism and nuttiness. So I will be conservative and put it down here a little ways.
15. The Housewife - Alyssa Hill - She is a debut screenwriter, but the material about a journalist tracking down a Nazi officer sounds like something the Academy could get behind. It is distributed by Neon, so it will have some sort of awards season push, or at least a festival run.
16. Enemies - Henry Dunham - The movie has a plot that leaves room for some pretty twisty things. The cast he got for his second film is incredible, so there must be a lot on the page that brought Austin Butler and Jeremy Allen White to the project.
17. Carousel - Rachel Lambert - Her previous film was Sometimes I Think About Dying, which was like half of the best movie of 2024. This movie premieres at Sundance, and it has a nice cast. The movie is probably too personal to make waves, but we will see if this one stands out in Park City Boulder. That just sounds wrong.
18. Paper Tiger - James Gray - Some of his screenwriting credits are really something special. If he can bring the tenderness of Two Lovers and mix it with the intensity of Little Odessa, then this could absolutely rise up the list.
19. The Chaperones - Sebastian Black - He is a new screenwriter, but his formula is always a hit in awards season. There is so much room for interesting characters and interactions while on a road trip. The cast is great. If played right, this could be another Little Miss Sunshine. It has A24 and Plan B behind it.
20. In Memoriam - Rob Burnett - Burnett previously made the sleeper indie The Fundamentals of Caring. This is a movie about an old actor with cancer who becomes obsessed with being in the Oscar’s In Memoriam segment. It stars Marc Maron and has a really fun supporting cast. The Academy likes to be winked at every once in a while. This could be a true comedy film that they really go for, which is becoming much more rare than we like to admit.
21. The Revisionist - Alex Vlack - The movie sounds a bit like a Stranger Than Fiction drama version. It is his first film, so it will need to be an elite screenplay.
22. The Uprising - Paul Greengrass - Epic period action movies are always going to have a tough time getting screenplay mentions. Greengrass’s only nomination was for Best Director in 2006. If this movie really hits with audiences worldwide, then this could easily come along for the ride.
23. Madden - David O. Russell, Cambron Clark - I have no idea if this is going to be anything serious or not, but it has to be mentioned if this somehow turns into a classic. I can see a version of this that becomes Vice or something similar where the actors are all just so good in their interpretations of famous people that it cannot be ignored.
24. The Beloved - Rodrigo Sorogoyen, Isabel Pena - The movie will have to be really popular for it to fit in here. It has the right subject matter, but there are a lot of foreign films vying for those few open spots for whatever the rest of the world has to offer. The Beasts was a hugely popular movie with critics, so we will see if that is at all parlayed into a more broad appeal with Sorogoyen’s follow-up film.
25. Hot Water - Ramzi Bashoul - Debut screenwriters always have a chance here if it is an indie that really connects with audiences. This is the classic format of a Sundance road trip movie.
26. Cut Off - Jonah Hill, Ezra Woods - This is the second Jonah Hill-directed movie slated for this year, also co-written by Ezra Woods (Outcome). It is about two wealthy siblings who are forced to support themselves when their parents cut them off. This isn’t getting nominated, but I need to remind myself of some movies throughout the year. It stars Hill and Kristen Wiig. Give it to me now! It comes out in July from Warner Brothers.
27. Moulin - Olivier Demangel - I am not entirely familiar with his work, but the Laszlo Nemes film will need to be absolutely believable to get mentioned in the categories above. It deserves a nod here at the bottom of the Original Screenplay list.
28. Panic Carefully - Sam Esmail - After Leave the World Behind, I was hesitant to include the next Esmail film. This is about the hunt for a cyber-terrorist. The cast is loaded. He has to bring some of that Mr. Robot quality to the big screen at some point.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. The Social Reckoning - Aaron Sorkin - When you really don’t know what to predict because all the top movies are original scripts, go with Sorkin. He won an Oscar 16 years ago for tapping into the Facebook creation, so we can bookend it here with an Oscar win about Facebook’s world-changing capabilities and arc in its short existence. It is a safe choice, but his Steve Jobs movie also felt like a safe bet. We will see if anyone still cares later this year.
2. Being Heumann - Sian Heder, Rebekah Taussig - This is based on the memoir of Judith Heumann. Sian Heder won an Oscar in this category for CODA, so we are all waiting to see what her next film is like. In these kinds of biopics or replaying of events films, the movie really needs to have a tight screenplay. But again, she did win for CODA.
3. Switzerland - Joanna Murray-Smith - She is mostly a playwright, but she wrote Georgia back in 1995 and also a version of this story in 2017. Movies about authors and such are always an easy sell to the writer’s branch because they get to be as literary and showy as they want with the dialogue.
4. The Odyssey - Christopher Nolan - This seems like a snubbable category for this film. Epics and war movies do not have a great track record translating to screenplay Oscars. He is sort of a mainstay in this category, however, so I will leave him here.
5. Rosebush Pruning - Efthimis Filippou - He has won a Cannes screenplay award and gotten an Oscar nom in the past for his collaborations with Yorgos Lanthimos. Here, he steps out on his own and gets a pretty notable foreign director to take on his script. It has the makings of a classic Adapted Screenplay nomination, even if it isn’t as much of a contender in other categories.
Others in contention
6. The Death of Robin Hood - Michael Sarnoski - The movie all depends on if it is a unique take on the material or not. It already is about a part of the story that isn’t told as much, so that is a plus. Sarnoski has a great film in him. This could be it.
7. Dune: Part Three - Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts - The movie is following the Lord of the Rings pattern of having the second part be snubbed in some categories, including screenplay. If the movie wraps the whole thing up in a satisfying way, then this should be an easy nomination. But that is just not as fun to predict.
8. The Adventures of Cliff Booth - Quentin Tarantino - Tarantino nearly won his third Oscar for telling a story in this world. Here, his script is in the hands of the most precise director out there, who will also no doubt make it his own. It has been 30 years since Tarantino gave his script to another director, so we will see how this comes out. The few times in the 90s that it happened produced wildly varying results, but all still somehow becoming classics.
9. Look Back - Hirokazu Koreeda, Ryoko Taguchi - This is a coming-of-age movie about two students who form a bond over anime. Koreeda’s films are always worth keeping an eye on. Shoplifters got a Foreign Film nomination, but this, which is an adaptation of a one-shot manga from 2021, feels like something that can really sweep voters off their feet if done right. And we know it will be done right.
10. Toy Story 5 - Andrew Stanton - Two of the four films in the saga have gotten screenplay nominations. I know, I know, no one is asking for a fifth one of these, but this is Andrew Stanton’s baby. WALL-E and Finding Nemo are two of the most beloved Pixar films, and he has taken a step out from the studio to do his own thing only to come back to tell this story. It is about the toys and how they are being pushed aside for a tablet. They wouldn’t screw up this franchise with a nothing movie 30 years later. I will be first in line to see this in June. The Academy hasn’t been too kind to animation above the line since 2010, though.
11. Famous - Chad Hodge - He is mostly a TV writer, but the movie has the premise that if done right can be something that the industry will really go for. It will need to be a little less strange than the majority of Jody Hill’s work, but I can see it happening.
12. Soudain - Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Lea Le Dimna - Can Hamaguchi do it again? I am going to say probably not, but this movie sounds even more like something the Oscars go for than Drive My Car did.
13. Sense and Sensibility - Diana Reid - This is her first screenplay. It is an adaptation of a classic novel. If it is done right, then it will be in contention by default.
14. Tonight at Noon - Michael Almereyda - Sometimes movies about writers are rewarded here out of respect. I don’t have a ton of confidence in this one, but when you click through hundreds of titles, some plots and casts stand out. It is based on a book by the author of Motherless Brooklyn.
15. Narnia - Greta Gerwig - She is a past nominee for screenwriting for all three of her films. This will be a little more difficult considering the material, but if she turns it into a Gerwig movie somehow, then I imagine the script will have a lot to say. I’m just keeping it here.
16. Project Hail Mary - Drew Goddard - Goddard was nominated for The Martian for adapting the Andy Weir book with similar material. It is hard to imagine that happening again, but this movie has all the eyeballs on it, being based on supposedly beloved source material. The filmmakers will make this absolutely entertaining, but is that good enough? We will see relatively soon how this goes.
17. Weekend Warriors - Stephen Chbosky - This stars Mark Wahlberg as a father who wants to take his autistic son to every NBA arena. Chbosky always has really sincere and sentimental movies, which sometimes hit audiences and the industry. This is an Apple release, so they will undoubtedly try to make this the next CODA.
18. Wuthering Heights - Emerald Fennell - We have seen the trailer a million times at this point. Emerald Fennell won a screenplay Oscar just 5 years ago, and this does look really good. I do not know why it is looked at as being such a non-factor. It is an adaptation of the classic Emily Bronte romance novel starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi. The February release date is baffling.
That’s all I got! I am not going to try to predict the Casting category just yet. I am going to wait until we at least have some evidence as to what that category could potentially look like, or else I would just be repeating a lot of what I wrote above.
What movies are you most looking forward to in 2026? Which nominations from this list would you most like to see come to fruition? Let me know in the comments, and look us up on Facebook, Instagram, and our website.
