2020 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#25

The Kansas City Royals are starting fresh in 2020 with a new manager as they attempt to rebuild their roster back to the World Series caliber team they were just five short years ago.  Will this season see some progress toward their goal?

2019 Predictions

#29 - 5th in AL Central

MIH: Adalberto Mondesi

MIP: Danny Duffy

PTW: Nicky Lopez

FP: The Royals will not trade away any lineup pieces mid-season.

2019 Results

#27 - 59-103, 4th in AL Central

Somehow, the Royals were able to lose over 100 games and stay out of the cellar.  This speaks more to how bad the Tigers were than anything.  The Royals have entered full rebuild mode with only three players left over from their 2015 World Series win (Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy ... four if you want to count a random postseason appearance by a then 19 year old Adalberto Mondesi).  Although Mondesi is continuing to be a solid player in the big leagues, the youngster still hasn't taken the leap that his talent level promised when he was a prospect.  It seems as if the best of Danny Duffy is behind him, as he hasn't become the lockdown ace it looked like he could be in 2016 and 2017.  Nicky Lopez showed enough in 2019 to be entering the 2020 season as the team's starting second baseman, moving perennial All Star Whit Merrifield to centerfield, but he still has a lot to prove.  As far as my prediction, the Royals were indeed very quiet in terms of trades during the season.  Although Merrifield is constantly part of trade rumors, the Royals want to keep guys like that around instead of using him to help build the future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals are entering 2020 with almost the exact same roster they had at the end of 2019.  The one addition they made was bringing in former Phillie Maikel Franco to man the hot corner.  They also re-signed leftfielder Alex Gordon for his age 36 season, more out of loyalty than anything.  The biggest change to the Royals this season is the retirement of their World Series manager Ned Yost who was replaced by former catcher and Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.  Matheny seems like the perfect guy to lead this team.

Most Important Hitter

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez is a 6 time All Star catcher with 5 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers.  He was also the MVP of the 2015 World Series.  When the Royals needed to start a rebuild and move on from the core of their World Series roster, Perez was the one of the few they kept, locking him up through 2021.  With all that said, this is an important season for Sal.  He is coming off a lost 2019 season after Tommy John surgery was needed last spring.  So he is going to have to fight through the rust and fatigue of missing all that time while also mentoring the young pitching staff trying to find their way and return to his Gold Glove caliber play.  If is a tough challenge, but if anyone is up to it, it is Sal Perez.

Most Important Pitcher

Brad Keller

The best pitcher on the Royals last year was Brad Keller.  In his second season in the big leagues, Keller posted a 4.19 ERA, a 113 ERA+, and a 2.8 WAR.  Now he is entering 2020 (his age 24 season) as their ace and needs to take another leap forward to solidify the top of their rotation.  Look for Keller to be one of the quiet success stories of the 2020 season.

Prospect to Watch

Brady Singer

The Royals' farm system is still a work in progress.  They have three players in the top 100 prospects, topped by last year's #2 overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. at #10.  However, the majority of their prospects are still a few seasons away from making a big league impact.  The exception to that is pitcher Brady Singer.  A 2018 1st round pick out of Florida, Singer worked his way all the way up to AA in his first taste of pro ball.  His sinker/slider combo plays at any level and should start to establish himself at the top of the Royals' rotation at some point this season.

2020 Prediction

4th in AL Central

Much like last season, the only thing keeping the Royals from the cellar of the AL Central will be the struggles of the Detroit Tigers.  With that said, I see the Royals taking some baby steps forward.  Keeping their veteran core around, while unconventional in today's MLB, is allowing for the youngsters to come along slowly and learn from the best.  Like I said, I think the Matheny hire was a home run for the Royals.  With all this said, the best description for the Royals in 2020 is ... boring.  For the most part, they are going to be a boring team.  They are in a rare spot in baseball these days.  They are not stockpiled to win now, and their farm system is not stockpiled for a rebuild.  They also don't seem to be working at achieving one of those goals very quickly.  Instead, they are just ... boring.  They will win some games, they will lose more, but it doesn't seem like 2020 is really progressing towards much of anything.

Fearless Prediction

Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

The breakout star for the Royals in 2020 was by far Jorge Soler.  Formerly a top prospect of the Cubs, Soler had really struggled to find his place in the big leagues.  His career high in games played before 2019 was 101, and his career high in homers was 12.  Then came 2019, where he played in all 162 games and led the AL with 48 home runs.  Did he finally figure it out, or was it a fluke?  I am betting on it being a fluke.  Look for his home run total to be around half of what it was last year.  Either that, or he hits 50+.  It will be one or the other.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#29

Just three years after winning the World Series, the Kansas City Royals lost 100 games in 2018, showing just how hard it is to sustain success, especially in a small market.  As the Royals work toward a rebuild, will 2019 start to see improvement or more mediocrity?

2018 Predictions

4th in AL Central

Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.

2018 Results

58-104, 5th in AL Central

When Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer moved on before the 2018 season (and Moustakas was traded at the Deadline), the reign of the Royals officially ended.  Although some centerpieces of the World Series runs are still around (Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez), their production bottomed out with few quality young players to make up for it.  Even their best pitchers had bad 2018 seasons.  All this led to a 100 loss season, a feat that has not been that common over the last decade or so.

Additions / Subtractions

Being a small market team starting a rebuild, there is not much that can be done in free agency to improve.  Add to that some big contracts to Gordon and Perez, and the Royals don't have a lot of financial flexibility.  Veterans Lucas Duda and Alcides Escobar moved on after the 2018 season.  The only impact additions made to the roster were Brad Boxberger in the bullpen and Billy Hamilton in centerfield.  The Hamilton signing might be one of the more intriguing, under-the-radar signings of the offseason as he brings an electricity to the lineup that defined their World Series runs.

Most Important Hitter

Adalberto Mondesi

The son of former Dodger Raul Mondesi, Adalberto Mondesi represents the beginning of what may be the next wave of young talent in Kansas City.  Mondesi played parts of 2016 and 2017 with the big club before becoming a more regular player by the end of 2018.  Now with Alcides Escobar moving on, Mondesi will open the 2019 season as the everyday shortstop.  He was quite the highly-touted prospect coming up through the system, and it is time for him to start to show some of that promise.  Mondesi is entering his age 23 season, which would be a great time to make a big leap forward in his progress.  How quickly the Royals bounce back into prominence depends on how quickly a player like Mondesi becomes a star.

Most Important Pitcher

Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy emerged after the 2016 and 2017 seasons as the Royals' best pitcher.  However, 2018 was a huge step back for the lefty.  His ERA jumped up over a run while his ERA+ dropped below average for the first time since 2011, his rookie season.  Their rotation is built around Duffy being their ace, and last year he was everything but that.  If he bounces back to the potential star he showed he could be, then the Royals might be a little better than people think.

Prospect to Watch

Nicky Lopez

Something that doesn't bode well for the Royals' chances over the next few seasons is their farm system is not very strong.  Only one prospect is currently ranked in MLB's top 100, and only one of their top 10 prospects are even close to the big leagues.  The one prospect is middle infielder Nicky Lopez.  A 23 year old former fifth rounder out of Creighton, Lopez's strength is his glove, however his bat has been better than expected.  With Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi securing the middle infield spots for the foreseeable future, there might not be a spot for Lopez to get a chance.  However, if Mondesi struggles or Merrifield gets traded or either gets hurt, Lopez will likely get a shot.  At the least, he should make an appearance as a utility infielder at some point this season.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The Royals spent most of two decades barely being relevant before coming up and making two straight World Series out of nowhere.  It looks like they are securely back to irrelevance moving forward.  Their stars are aging and declining, outside of Merrifield the rest of the lineup is either still developing or underwhelming.  They have no help coming from the minors and no money to go get help.  They are in a tough spot for the years to come.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will not trade away any lineup pieces mid-season.

These days, teams are either loading up on an excess of major league talent or unloading the major league talent to bolster the farm system.  There are very few teams that find themselves in the middle, which is part of why there are so many free agents still unsigned.  No one is in the market for mid-level talent.  Either they go for the Harpers and Machados or they tank to load up on prospects to create a young core that will peak in a few years.  The Royals don't strike me as a team willing to trade their big names.  They traded Moustakas last season at the Deadline, but everyone knew when they signed him to a one year deal that was the purpose.  Other teams in the Royals' shoes would be doing anything to trade away guys like Alex Gordon or Salvador Perez.  The Royals seem to me to be a team that still believes in franchise faces and loyalty.  They will not be relevant for a few years, but they signed their 30 year old second baseman to a 4 year deal.  Alex Gordon is in the last year of his contract, but he is a local guy that has spent his whole career there.  Sal Perez is still an elite catcher that could bring a big return, but he is the face of their franchise and not going anywhere.  They are old school enough to sacrifice some future success to be loyal to their stars and their fans now.  Respectable, even if it isn't responsible.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#14

The Kansas City Royals came off two straight trips to the World Series by having a disappointing 2016 season marred by injury.  Do the Royals have one more run in them with their current core?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in AL Central, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The Royals will trade for a starting pitcher before the Trade Deadline.

2016 Results

81-81, 3rd in AL Central

It's really hard to do what the Royals did in 2014 and 2015.  Taking two straight trips to the World Series, winning one, and almost winning another is one of the greatest runs in recent baseball memory.  In 2016, the stars finally stopped aligning for the Royals.  Some key injuries derailed their chances at a third straight trip to the top of the American League.  With that said, a .500 record is still a step up from the depths the Royals have been over the last couple decades.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals were fairly active over this offseason.  They traded speedy outfielder Jarrod Dyson to the Mariners for starter Nathan Karns, as well as traded closer Wade Davis to the Cubs for outfielder Jorge Soler.  (That brings the "Big Three" bullpen arms that helped make the magical run down to one.)  In free agency, they went out and picked up slugger Brandon Moss and starter Jason Hammel.  The biggest news from the Royals' offseason was the reason Hammel needed to be signed.  Tragedy once again struck the game of baseball as Royals' ace Yordano Ventura was killed in a car accident in the Dominican.  With a team as homegrown as this one, a tragedy like this really hit the Royals' organization hard.  His absence in the clubhouse will be felt more than just his production on the field.

Most Important Hitter

Alex Gordon

One of the bigger storylines for the Royals entering 2017 is the fact that many of the mainstays of the current team have their contracts up at the end of the season.  Salvador Perez has already been re-signed, but the story is Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, and Mike Moustakas can't all stick around for what they are worth.  The oldest and most established member of the Royals' core, as well as the first one the team committed to, is Alex Gordon.  At 33, he is starting to see some decline in his production, but he needs to have a rebound season after a terrible 2016.

Most Important Pitcher

Danny Duffy

An unexpected surprise for the Royals in 2016 was the emergence of Danny Duffy.  He went from swing pitcher, getting time in the bullpen and making a spot start or two, to being the ace of the staff.  Now with the death of Yordano Ventura, Duffy is the closest thing the Royals have to a established starter in their prime.  They need him to pitch like he did down last season if the Royals want to have any chance of succeeding in 2017.  Throughout the run they have been on, the Royals have always struggled to have a dominant rotation despite their dominant bullpen.  Duffy showed potential to be that dominant ace they have been looking for.

Player to Watch

Matt Strahm

Complicating the dilemma facing the Royals next offseason is the fact that their farm system is fairly bare.  They are one of the few teams with the distinction of having no prospects in baseball's top 100 prospects.  Their best prospect, Matt Strahm, got a good taste of the big leagues last season logging 22 innings with a 1.23 ERA out of the bullpen.  The Royals aren't sure yet if he will stay in the bullpen or if he will eventually be a starter.  Either way, he will be a player to keep an eye on throughout the season.

2017 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

This might be the last ride for this current core of Royals' players, but there is just too much talent around the league for them to make the playoffs as the roster currently sits.  Their rotation has declined, and their bullpen is not as formidable as before.  Their lineup is back in tact, but without the pitching, they are probably going to come up just short once again.

Fearless Prediction

Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.

Like I said, the Royals will not be able to re-sign all their stars.  Some are going to walk away from Kansas City at the end of the season for greener pastures and deeper pockets.  By the Trade Deadline, the Royals will most likely decide which they are keeping and which they are going to let walk.  They have already signed Salvador Perez to an extension, an obvious choice.  Of the remaining three, my guess is the next priority will be Eric Hosmer.  If that is the case, that means Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, and Mike Moustakas will probably be left out.  The Royals will quickly realize they will rather get something for these guys instead of letting them walk at the end of the season.  This might be their chance to rebuild the farm system and find their replacements.  I doubt they will trade all three, but two out of the three would be realistic.  They will ride that fine line between contending and rebuilding the last few months of 2017.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals have put together one of the best two year stretches any franchise could wish for.  Now that they have reached the highest pinnacle, will they be able to make it three years in a row?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in AL Central, win World Series

2015 Results: 95-67, 1st in AL Central, won World Series

I was so upset that I never got around to writing my 2015 preview article for the Royals, especially after I they won it all.  I think I may have been the only person to correctly predict KC reaching the World Series again, let alone win it.  There was something special about that team that showed they still had something to prove.  They sure proved it!  And I totally nailed it!

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Royals brought in two rent-a-players at the Trade Deadline last season that helped propel them to the title.  Both of those players, Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, have moved on.  Also moving on is starting rightfielder Alex Rios, former closer Greg Holland, and reliever Ryan Madson.  Very little was done to replace any of these, with the biggest acquisition of the offseason being Ian Kennedy.  Joakim Soria and Mike Minor were also brought in to add some pitching depth.  They seemed to replace some superstars with lower level talent hoping they pan out.  However, the biggest move of the offseason was re-signing free agent Alex Gordon to the big multi-year deal they Royals usually would run away from.

Most Important Hitter

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez is the Iron Horse of Catchers.  The last three seasons, he has played 138+ games.  That is an insane workload for a catcher, especially considering how many extra games he has played with the last two postseasons.  He is needed too as he is one of those catchers that doubles as a pitching coach on the field.  With that kind of workload, Perez is due either for a down year at the plate or an injury.  If that happens, the Royals might struggle through the season more than they have the last few years.

Most Important Pitcher

Yordano Ventura

With as good as the Royals have been the last few years, their rotation has not been great.  In 2014, they had James Shields to anchor that rotation.  In 2015, Yordano Ventura tried to be the ace, but they needed to trade for Cueto after Ventura disappointed.  Ventura has all the skills to be an ace and a superstar, but he is struggling putting it all together.  By "replacing" Cueto in the rotation with Kennedy, who is a solid starter but no longer a superstar ace, the Royals are putting the pressure back on Ventura to step up and be the ace.  If he doesn't do it this year, it may never happen for Yordano Ventura.

Player to Watch

Raul A. Mondesi

The strangest move the Royals made last year was to ask Raul A. Mondesi to make his Major League debut in the World Series.  He barely played, but it showed just how much confidence the Royals have in this second generation talent.  The weakest link in the Royals' lineup right now in Omar Infante at second base.  Look for Mondesi to be called up at some point to add some flash and energy to the lineup at second.

2016 Prediction

2nd in AL Central, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

I correctly called the Royals winning the World Series last year when no one saw it coming.  Now they are much more respected after winning the title, and I have them coming up short.  This team will still play as hard as they have the last few years.  The main difference between the 2016 and 2015/2014 teams is a lack of depth.  They still have Wade Davis and Kelvim Herrera, but Madson and Holland gone loses some of the depth that made that bullpen their super strength.  In rightfield, Nori Aoki played right in 2014 while Alex Rios played there in 2015.  Jarrod Dyson, who was a primary backup the last two seasons, will now be asked to start in right.  His defense and speed is first class, but his bat is nowhere near as strong as the other two.  They will still make the playoffs, but the current lineup will not quite make it back to the top.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will trade for a starting pitcher before the Trade Deadline.

Ian Kennedy will spend time on the DL.  Yordano Ventura won't look like the ace they are hoping for.  Edinson Volquez will be what he has been his whole career; brilliant and inconsistent.  Their best starting pitcher will once again be the ageless tower, Chris Young.  They will need to bolster their staff again if they want to make another postseason run, especially since their bullpen won't be the unstoppable machine it has been the last few years.  It will be great, just not so historic it will make up for the weak rotation again.  Making that move (maybe bringing back James Shields???) will help put the Royals back into the postseason.