2023 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #25

The Kansas City Royals are getting close to being able to compete again after tearing down the roster following their World Series win in 2015.  Is 2023 the year they break out an be relevant again?

2022 Predictions

#21 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Zack Greinke

PTW - Bobby Witt Jr.

2022 Results

#26 - 65-97, 5th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Michael A. Taylor

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Brady Singer

The 2022 Royals was all about the youth movement.  It saw the debut of phenom Bobby Witt Jr., who played 150 and showed he truly is the budding superstar everyone thought he would be.  Brady Singer had a breakout season and showed he can be the ace everyone thought he would be.  Veterans Salvador Perez and Zack Greinke anchored the team and provided the necessary veteran leadership.  The problem is the rest of the roster wasn't up to par.  However, there were promising signs for the future for sure.

Additions / Subtractions

After selling off several veterans at the Trade Deadline last year like Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, and Andrew Benintendi, the Royals had a typical Royals offseason by not paying their own veterans hitting free agency and instead signing some interesting veterans with tons of upside.  So their best player (in terms of WAR) in Michael A. Taylor signed elsewhere, and Adalberto Mondesi was traded to Boston.  Coming in are starter Jordan Lyles and reliever Aroldis Chapman.  The one exception was ageless wonder Zack Greinke who is still going strong and should definitely finish his career in Kansas City.  The other major change for the Royals was the change at manager, with Matt Quatraro taking over for Mike Matheny.

Most Important Hitter

Vinnie Pasquatino

Although everyone entered the season fascinated by Bobby Witt Jr., the most popular player by the end of the season might have been fellow rookie Vinnie Pasquatino.  Nicknamed "The Italian Nightmare," Pasquatino showed his pure hitting skills could translate to the big leagues, batting .295 with 10 homers, 26 RBI's with a 135 OPS+ over 72 games.  This year, he will be counted on as a middle of the order bat despite not even having half a season of big league experience under his belt.  Witt Jr. will impact the game no matter what because of his athleticism.  If the Royals are going to take a step forward this year, it is going to be because of Vinnie Pasquatino.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Lynch

With Brady Singer emerging as the ace of the Royals, the focus goes to who will be providing the depth behind him.  Enter Daniel Lynch.  Entering his age 26 season (just like Singer), Lynch will be starting his 2nd full season in the big leagues.  Last season was not necessarily successful, as he posted a 4-13 record with a 5.13 ERA and an 80 ERA+ in 27 starts.  The Royals will be looking for him to take a step forward similar to what Singer did last year.  If he does, the Royals have a formidable right/left, 1/2 punch at the top of their rotation for the foreseeable future.

Prospect to Watch

Drew Waters

The Royals overall farm system took a hit last year with players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquatino graduating from the list.  Now they only boast one Top 100 prospect, and he is still probably a couple years away from the big leagues.  With that said, the Royals do have some fascinating prospects that could provide real impact at the big league level this season.  One of those in Drew Waters.  A former 2nd round pick of the Braves, the Royals traded for Waters mid-season for a draft pick.  Playing 32 games for the Royals in 2022, Waters barely maintained his prospect status but also showed some good production, with a 124 OPS+.  Now the Royals will go into Opening Day 2023 with Waters as their centerfielder, and he will be given every opportunity this season to show he is their centerfielder of the future.

2023 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Royals are the start of a section on these power rankings of teams that are still rebuilding but are very close to breaking out in a big way.  The AL Central is not as strong as other divisions, their youth movement is really starting to show it's worth paying attention to, and it shouldn't shock anyone if the Royals end up close to .500 by the end of the season.

Fearless Prediction

Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.

He has all the potential to be one of the game's next superstars.  He is dynamic young player that can do it all.  Last year he just scratched the surface.  If he takes the next step, look for him to be the talk of the league and win a fan vote for the best shortstop in the American League.  The Royals fans have shown in the past that they will come out in droves to vote for their stars when they have one to vote for.  It could make the Mid-Summer Classic a coming-out party for Bobby Witt Jr. in a similar way it was for Julio Rodriguez in 2022.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #24

The Kansas City Royals had one of the more aggressive offseasons, making several surprising splashes.  Will that work lead to success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Brad Keller

PTW - Brady Singer

FP - Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

2020 Results

#24 - 26-34, 4th in AL Central

The Royals had some moderate success in 2020, but their talent level just couldn't carry them very far.  I had their season well predicted though.  Their two best players in terms of WAR were Salvador Perez and Brad Keller.  Third on that list was rookie Brady Singer.  Jorge Soler came out of the clouds of his home run title in 2019 and only hit 8 home runs in the shortened year.  It seemed like their season was fairly predictable.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals decided this offseason that waiting for the next Hosmer/Gordon/Perez/Moustakas/Cain core to come out of their farm system wasn't worth being mediocre anymore.  So they went out and spent a little money.  They brought in Carlos Santana to play first base.  They signed Mike Minor to round out the rotation.  they signed Michael A. Taylor to play centerfield.  Possibly the biggest move of the offseason they had was trading for Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox to replace the retiring Alex Gordon.  No one can claim the Royals are tanking after what they did this winter.

Most Important Hitter

Jorge Soler

Even with all the new pieces coming into the roster, the heart of the order will still revolve around their big slugger.  Jorge Soler broke out in 2019 with 48 homers.  Although he wasn't bad in 2020, it was not up to the level of that career year.  With bats like Santana and Benintendi giving him protection in the lineup, he has every opportunity to bounce back in 2021.  If he does, this could be a potent offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Staumont

The Royals appear to have a pretty solid rotation with Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, and phenom Brady Singer leading the way.  The hole appears to be the bullpen that doesn't have a clear arm to anchor the back half of the game.  Josh Staumont is a young arm that had some success in 2020.  They need him, or an arm similar to him, to emerge as an elite reliever to lead the way.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Witt Jr.

By far, the top prospect in the Royals' system is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.  The second pick in the 2019 draft, Witt is currently ranked as the 7th best prospect in all of baseball.  Making his debut in 2021 might be a little bit of a stretch, but he has the skill and raw talent to make that kind of jump.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL Central

I feel like there are some definite tiers to MLB teams in 2021.  Numbers 30-25 are teams that really have no chance to make a significant impact in 2021.  The Royals start a run of teams that are probably not making the playoffs, but they have the talent to make things interesting.  I am probably underselling the Royals and what they can do in 2021 by putting them this low, but I just don't think they are quite at a point where they can climb much beyond here.  Because of the growth from some other teams in the division, that puts them in the cellar.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

If the Royals are truly this far out of contention, they should be sellers at the deadline this season.  Their lineup is so young though, that I doubt they will trade away any hitters.  Their pitching staff, however, has a few veteran arms that I could see being moved.  Mike Minor and Danny Duffy are the prime candidates to be traded.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

#25

The Kansas City Royals are starting fresh in 2020 with a new manager as they attempt to rebuild their roster back to the World Series caliber team they were just five short years ago.  Will this season see some progress toward their goal?

2019 Predictions

#29 - 5th in AL Central

MIH: Adalberto Mondesi

MIP: Danny Duffy

PTW: Nicky Lopez

FP: The Royals will not trade away any lineup pieces mid-season.

2019 Results

#27 - 59-103, 4th in AL Central

Somehow, the Royals were able to lose over 100 games and stay out of the cellar.  This speaks more to how bad the Tigers were than anything.  The Royals have entered full rebuild mode with only three players left over from their 2015 World Series win (Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy ... four if you want to count a random postseason appearance by a then 19 year old Adalberto Mondesi).  Although Mondesi is continuing to be a solid player in the big leagues, the youngster still hasn't taken the leap that his talent level promised when he was a prospect.  It seems as if the best of Danny Duffy is behind him, as he hasn't become the lockdown ace it looked like he could be in 2016 and 2017.  Nicky Lopez showed enough in 2019 to be entering the 2020 season as the team's starting second baseman, moving perennial All Star Whit Merrifield to centerfield, but he still has a lot to prove.  As far as my prediction, the Royals were indeed very quiet in terms of trades during the season.  Although Merrifield is constantly part of trade rumors, the Royals want to keep guys like that around instead of using him to help build the future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals are entering 2020 with almost the exact same roster they had at the end of 2019.  The one addition they made was bringing in former Phillie Maikel Franco to man the hot corner.  They also re-signed leftfielder Alex Gordon for his age 36 season, more out of loyalty than anything.  The biggest change to the Royals this season is the retirement of their World Series manager Ned Yost who was replaced by former catcher and Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.  Matheny seems like the perfect guy to lead this team.

Most Important Hitter

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez is a 6 time All Star catcher with 5 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers.  He was also the MVP of the 2015 World Series.  When the Royals needed to start a rebuild and move on from the core of their World Series roster, Perez was the one of the few they kept, locking him up through 2021.  With all that said, this is an important season for Sal.  He is coming off a lost 2019 season after Tommy John surgery was needed last spring.  So he is going to have to fight through the rust and fatigue of missing all that time while also mentoring the young pitching staff trying to find their way and return to his Gold Glove caliber play.  If is a tough challenge, but if anyone is up to it, it is Sal Perez.

Most Important Pitcher

Brad Keller

The best pitcher on the Royals last year was Brad Keller.  In his second season in the big leagues, Keller posted a 4.19 ERA, a 113 ERA+, and a 2.8 WAR.  Now he is entering 2020 (his age 24 season) as their ace and needs to take another leap forward to solidify the top of their rotation.  Look for Keller to be one of the quiet success stories of the 2020 season.

Prospect to Watch

Brady Singer

The Royals' farm system is still a work in progress.  They have three players in the top 100 prospects, topped by last year's #2 overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. at #10.  However, the majority of their prospects are still a few seasons away from making a big league impact.  The exception to that is pitcher Brady Singer.  A 2018 1st round pick out of Florida, Singer worked his way all the way up to AA in his first taste of pro ball.  His sinker/slider combo plays at any level and should start to establish himself at the top of the Royals' rotation at some point this season.

2020 Prediction

4th in AL Central

Much like last season, the only thing keeping the Royals from the cellar of the AL Central will be the struggles of the Detroit Tigers.  With that said, I see the Royals taking some baby steps forward.  Keeping their veteran core around, while unconventional in today's MLB, is allowing for the youngsters to come along slowly and learn from the best.  Like I said, I think the Matheny hire was a home run for the Royals.  With all this said, the best description for the Royals in 2020 is ... boring.  For the most part, they are going to be a boring team.  They are in a rare spot in baseball these days.  They are not stockpiled to win now, and their farm system is not stockpiled for a rebuild.  They also don't seem to be working at achieving one of those goals very quickly.  Instead, they are just ... boring.  They will win some games, they will lose more, but it doesn't seem like 2020 is really progressing towards much of anything.

Fearless Prediction

Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

The breakout star for the Royals in 2020 was by far Jorge Soler.  Formerly a top prospect of the Cubs, Soler had really struggled to find his place in the big leagues.  His career high in games played before 2019 was 101, and his career high in homers was 12.  Then came 2019, where he played in all 162 games and led the AL with 48 home runs.  Did he finally figure it out, or was it a fluke?  I am betting on it being a fluke.  Look for his home run total to be around half of what it was last year.  Either that, or he hits 50+.  It will be one or the other.