2021 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

 #5

The Toronto Blue Jays' young roster went through a tumultuous 2020 season and still made the playoffs.  Was that a sign of things to come for the team to the North?

2020 Predictions

#20 - 3rd in AL East

MIH - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

MIP - Hyun Jin Ryu

PTW - Nate Pearson

2020 Results

#11 - 32-28, 3rd in AL East, lost in Wild Card Round

The Blue Jays benefitted from the expanded playoffs by sneaking into one of the last two spots made available.  After having a winning record and playing their home games in their AAA stadium in Buffalo, the young Blue Jays had to be excited about the success they saw.  The team of baby boomers is filled with second generation MLB talent ready to burst into stardom.  They took huge steps forward in 2020 that have to excite Blue Jay fans.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by landing centerfielder George Springer in a major free agent deal.  He will serve as a veteran presence with a lot of postseason experience to lead this team of kids.  They also surprised by signing shortstop Marcus Semien to come in and man second base.  As far as the pitching is concerned, mid-season acquisition Taijuan Walker signed a free agent deal with the Mets so the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Blue Jays.  The Jays also signed Kirby Yates to be their closer, but a recent injury will require Tommy John surgery and put him out for all of the 2021 season at least.

Most Important Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It almost feels like some people are ready to give up on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the can't miss phenom everyone thought he was going to be.  People thought he would hit the big leagues and immediately win a Triple Crown.  Instead, he has been good but not great, having 106 and 116 OPS+ totals in his first two seasons.  Not having the immediate success everyone thought has led to him being passed up by some of his young teammates like Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio.  With as long as we have been talking about him, it's easy to forget that Vlad Jr. is only 22 years old.  He entered camp this year in the best shape of his life, losing a lot of weight in the offseason.  Although the Blue Jays saw success in 2020 without the best version of Vlad Jr., seeing him fulfill his potential is one of the ways this team takes the next step forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Steven Matz

The new acquisition was originally touted as one of the Mets phenoms when he came up alongside the likes of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.  It seems like the high expectations that Steven Matz never quite met required a change of scenery to breathe life back into his career.  Now he has that fresh start on a rising team.  Hyun Jin Ryu established himself as the ace last season, and several others from the rotation are starting the season injured.  It definitely gives Steven Matz an opportunity to make an immediate impact on his new club.

Prospect to Watch

Nate Pearson

He had a chance to make a huge impact in 2020 for the Blue Jays, but flamethrower Nate Pearson only saw the field for 5 games in the shortened COVID season.  With that said, he did make the postseason roster and pitched some critical innings.  Now, this 6th best prospect in all of baseball is ready to start the season in the rotation for the Jays (after a hopefully short stint on the IL) and be a crucial part of this team's pitching staff.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

In 2020, the Blue Jays snuck into the playoffs and couldn't win a game once they got there.  Now they have a taste of the postseason and want to get back.  George Springer I think is possibly the most impactful signing of the offseason as he brings that veteran experience while still being in his prime to such a young team.  It will be interesting to see if there is any impact with the Blue Jays once again not being allowed to play in Toronto to start the season thanks to border restrictions.  I see this lineup taking off and leading them to the ALDS regardless of where they play.

Fearless Prediction

The Blue Jays will trade for a closer before Memorial Day.

With Kirby Yates going down for the year, it leaves a huge hole in the back end of the Blue Jays' bullpen.  Before Memorial Day, they will identify a top end reliever with a hot start on a team that won't be competing this year (maybe someone like Craig Kimbrel for the Cubs?), and they will pull off a deal to make sure their bullpen doesn't cost them a chance to have a special team in 2021.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#25

The Toronto Blue Jays have a new coaching staff and the most talked about player in baseball to have yet to play in single major league game.  Will the changes and the hype make immediate success in 2019, or will it point to a bright future not yet realized?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL East

2018 will be Josh Donaldson's last season as a Blue Jay.

2018 Results

73-89, 4th in AL East

The Blue Jays had another less than stellar season in 2018 as the window on their latest wave of success officially slammed closed.  The team started into full rebuild mode, which was shown by the mid-season trades of any veterans with value: Steve Pearce, JA Happ, Roberto Osuna, and former MVP Josh Donaldson.  Outside of trading these players to contenders, and giving a native Canadian (James Paxton) his first no-hitter on his native soil, the Blue Jays really had an inconsequential season.
The biggest story of the season might have been the fact that their top prospect didn't get the call-up despite every indication that he was ready (keep building the hype!).

Additions / Subtractions

The subtractions were more notable than the additions.  Veteran catcher Russell Martin was moved to the Dodgers, and outfielder Curtis Granderson, as well as infielders Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte, left via free agency.  In their place?  They were replaced internally for the most part.  In fact, outside of starting pitchers Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard entering the organization, the roster is practically unchanged from the way it ended last season.  The most significant change was the firing of longtime manager John Gibbons and the hiring of longtime Rays' coach Charlie Montoyo.

Most Important Hitter

Randal Grichuk

At one point, Randal Grichuk was a top prospect and looked at as a centerpiece of the next generation of Cardinals in St. Louis.  After not being as strong as expected, he was moved to Toronto before last season.  In his first year in Toronto, he was solid hitting 25 homers and a 118 OPS+.  He was third on the team in WAR behind first baseman Justin Smoak and defensive freak Kevin Pillar.  The Blue Jays acquired him with the hope that a change of scenery would help him achieve some of the success his talent once promised.  If he is to be a potential building block of the next wave of Blue Jay success that is around the corner, 2019 is an important year for him to show that he is worthy of it.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

In 2016, Aaron Sanchez was the next great ace in the league.  He went 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA (led the league) and had a 142 ERA+ (league average is 100).  The Blue Jays shut down his season early to control innings and hopefully avoid injuries.  Even with the extra precautions, the injuries came anyways, only throwing 36 innings in 2017 and 105 innings in 2018.  The only encouraging sign is the injuries were mainly revolving around finger injuries and not shoulder or elbow.  Even when he was healthy in 2018, he posted a 4.89 ERA and an 86 ERA+, the first time he dropped below average in his career.  Sanchez is only entering his age 26 season, and if he is healthy the Blue Jays are hoping he returns to form, even if it is just to drive up the asking price for his potential mid-season trade to a contender.

Prospect to Watch

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The hype is real!  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the overall top prospect in baseball and one of the best hitting prospects to come along in the last few decades.  With the success he showed at the plate in the minors last year, he should have been on the roster for the last half of 2018, however the Blue Jays are trying to control service time and keep him in their organization for as long as possible.  Because of that, don't expect to see him in the big leagues until mid-April as the Blue Jays eek out one more extra year of club control.  Once he arrives, be prepared for him to hit.  He may only be 19, but he is ready.  If he stays at third base, watch for two sons of former players, Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette (might be called up by mid-season), to be the future left side of the Toronto infield for the next five or six seasons.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL East

The top of this division is definitely in a different category than the bottom.  The Blue Jays are in no way ready to compete with the top three teams in the division.  They are at least a couple years away from being competitive again.  However, as soon as Vlad Jr. is called us to big leagues, no one will be able to say they aren't exciting.  Vlad will mark the start of a new wave of stud prospects hitting the big league club over the next few seasons that will make them competitive again.  Until then, enjoy watching Vlad hit.  It will be one of the few things the Blue Jay fans will have to cheer for this season, especially if guys like Bo Bichette are held back unfairly like Vlad Jr. was.

Fearless Prediction

Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez will be traded mid-season.

The Blue Jays are probably eyeing 2021 or 2022 as their peak year to really start competing again in the AL East.  That is when their top prospects will really be hitting their prime.  Both Stroman and Sanchez will be free agents after the 2021 season.  Add that to the fact that the top of the Blue Jays' farm system is loaded with hitters but lacking a little in the pitching department, and it would make sense if they decided to move these two potential aces now to bring back some pitching prospects that will be peaking at the same time as the rest of their prospects.  Either way, if they are not viewed as being on the team when the Blue Jays plan on being competitive again, trade them now.