2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #15

The Chicago Cubs have completed a full reset of their roster from the core that won the World Series in 2016.  Is this new core ready to compete?

2022 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Nico Hoerner

MIP - Marcus Stroman

PTW - Brennen Davis

2022 Results

#19 - 74-88, 3rd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ian Happ

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Marcus Stroman

The Cubs quietly had a decent season in 2022.  They never really felt like they were in contention, but they remained competitive throughout the whole season.  One of the biggest revelations of the 2022 season for the Cubs was the solid rookie outing for Japanese import Seiya Suzuki.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason for the Cubs was all about officially ending one era and starting a new one.  They watched Willson Contreras join the Cardinals in free agency, marking the departure of one of the only remaining players from the World Series team.  To fill the leadership void, the Cubs signed shortstop Dansby Swanson to a huge deal.  Then they invested in some bounce back reclamation projects.  This came in the form of starter Jameson Taillon, first basemen Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, and most notably, centerfielder Cody Bellinger.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Cubs signed Swanson to be the cornerstone of their future, and he will be counted on to start earning his big contract immediately.  He earned the big payday too.  Last season was his best in the big leagues, hitting .277 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI's, and a 115 OPS+ while playing every game and earning his first Gold Glove.  The Cubs are paying him like that was just the start of his greatness.  If the Cubs are taking a step forward in 2023, he will have to prove that's true.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

What appears to be the final remaining player from the Cubs glory days, Kyle Hendricks has really fallen off the last few seasons.  In fact, 2021 and 2022 were his worst seasons in the big leagues.  In 2022, injuries kept him to only 16 starts and 84 innings.  He almost pitched more in the COVID shortened 2020 season than in 2022.  He doesn't need to bounce all the way back to the elite level that led the league in ERA in 2016, but the Cubs need him to bounce back in some way.  Their pitching staff feels very makeshift and random entering the year.  Hendricks returning to form would provide some much needed stability.

Prospect to Watch

Hayden Wesneski

With the Cubs pitching staff less set than their lineup, there will be opportunities for a player like Hayden Wesneski to have an impact in 2023.  Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross, Wesneski had a chance to get in 6 games last fall with some pretty good success.  The 25 year old starter is thought to have a very high floor with a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.  Wesneski enters 2023 as the Cubs #5 prospect in their farm system, which ranks middle of the pack in the league.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

I like where the Cubs are at!  I think they are definitely heading in the right direction.  Dansby Swanson was a perfect choice to be the new face of their franchise, their new core is starting to develop nicely, and their pitching has some upside.  I look for the Cubs to be a surprise team in 2023.  They probably won't contend for a playoff spot, but they might be in the conversation for a Wild Card down the stretch, especially since they are in one of the worst divisions in baseball.

Fearless Prediction

Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

Over the last season or two, one of the perpetual storylines around the Cubs has been if Ian Happ will be traded at any point.  Happ has been one of those bridge players who broke out on the scene in 2017 just after the World Series run and has been one of their best players the last few years.  Now he is in his last year of club control and will be looking for a big payday next offseason.  The Cubs also have a ton of outfield depth in their farm system, with some ready to contribute at some point this season.  Look for Ian Happ to be moved in July for a young, big league ready arm.  A move like this would be a perfect opportunity to sell while still competing down the stretch, even if it might not be a popular move with Cubs fans.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

 #7

The New York Mets made huge headlines over the offseason with a new owner and a new superstar.  Now the expectations are ridiculously high for this team that was under .500 in 2020.  Will they be able to reach those expectations?

2020 Predictions

#14 - 3rd in NL East

MIH - Robinson Cano

MIP - Edwin Diaz

PTW - Kevin Smith

2020 Results

#21 - 26-34, 4th in NL East

The Mets were not that bad in 2020, but they got stuck in the crazy NL East where they were tied for the worst record in the division with the defending champion Nationals.  Jacob deGrom followed up back-to-back Cy Young seasons with a 3rd place finish, they had a bounceback season from Robinson Cano, and several young players had breakout seasons like Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith.  So although the final record doesn't show it, there were definitely some good things that happened in 2020.

Additions / Subtractions

If there was one move this offseason that revitalized an entire organization that had nothing to do with the roster, it was definitely the announcement of new owner Steve Cohen in Queens.  If there was one move this offseason that revitalized an entire organization that did impact the roster, it was the Mets trading for Francisco Lindor.  The Mets also added to the rotation with Taijuan Walker via free agency and Marcus Stroman who is back after opting out last season.  This will make up for Steven Matz signing elsewhere.  They should also be getting back Noah Syndergaard at some point this season too.  The biggest subtraction might have been a blessing in disguise when Robinson Cano was suspended for the season for steroids.  They will miss his bat in the lineup, but they enjoyed having the extra $24 million to spend in free agency.  Overall, the offseason went about as good as possible for the Mets.

Most Important Hitter

Francisco Lindor

Of all the players in the league, the most pressure might be on Francisco Lindor to singlehandedly turn around a slumping franchise.  He has to try and do that while also being in the final year of his contract.  Many think it is a foregone conclusion he re-signs with the Mets, and contract negotiations are currently ongoing, but the biggest storylines with the Mets revolve around him.  Can Lindor really make that much of an impact?  Was he worth the steep price they paid to get him?  Will he be in Queens beyond 2021?  This is by far the most important hitter on the team this season.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

We all know Jacob deGrom is possibly the best pitcher in baseball, but he can't pitch every day.  The rotation needs depth, and it needs more than one ace to compete with some of the elite rotations in the division and the National League in general.  With Syndergaard still recovering from an injury, this has to start with Marcus Stroman.  When Stroman is right, he is one of the best pitchers in the game.  The best example of this is probably the near no hitter he threw in the WBC Championship a few years ago.  However, the Mets have only seen him for part of 2019 before he opted out of 2020.  He needs to come back and show he is ready to be dominant again.  This is also his contract year, and if he wants to get the big pay day, this year has to be him at his best.

Prospect to Watch

Khalil Lee

The Mets are ranked the 19th best farm system in baseball.  They have some decent talent in their system boasting 4 Top 100 Prospects.  The problem is none of it is very close to the majors (you can probably thank the Cano for Kelenic trade).  The player most likely to impact the big league roster this season is Khalil Lee.  Lee is the 7th best prospect in the Mets system and was the key piece the Mets received in the Benintendi to KC deal this offseason.  He has the makeup of a solid big league outfielder, and with the lack of depth in the outfield for the Mets, he could be called up at some point and get a chance to show what he can do.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

I think the Mets have done enough to make themselves a serious contender in this division again, even with as competitive as it is going to be.  Francisco Lindor should breathe life and excitement into this team, Pete Alonso should bounce back after a slight sophomore slump, and with Syndergaard coming back mid-season, they should be getting healthy and dangerous at just the right time.  I have them grabbing a Wild Card spot, and knowing that Jacob deGrom is probably pitching a Wild Card Game, they should take down any lineup they face, even if it is the Padres.  They might not get much farther than that, but this will be a huge step forward for a franchise that finally might be competing with the Yankees for notoriety in the Big Apple.

Fearless Prediction

Robinson Cano has played his last game in the big leagues.

Robinson Cano's career was on a Hall of Fame path just a few short years ago.  He was the best second baseman for about a decade, he revitalized a Mariners franchise and almost singlehandedly made them relevant again, and he continued to show he was one of the most natural baseball talents of his generation.  Then he was suspended for steroids in 2018, missing a huge chunk of the season.  Then the trade to the Mets happened, giving him a fresh start back in New York.  Although 2019 didn't go great, 2020 showed the Mets there was still some life in that 37 year old bat.  Then this offseason he received his second steroids suspension, this time knocking him out for an entire season.  If this season is as successful without him as it is looking to be, the Mets might want to move on, even though he is still under contract for 2 more seasons after 2021.  Also, after a full season suspension, baseball might just be done with him, and one of the greatest players of the 21st century so far might be sent off and never heard from again.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#25

The Toronto Blue Jays have a new coaching staff and the most talked about player in baseball to have yet to play in single major league game.  Will the changes and the hype make immediate success in 2019, or will it point to a bright future not yet realized?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL East

2018 will be Josh Donaldson's last season as a Blue Jay.

2018 Results

73-89, 4th in AL East

The Blue Jays had another less than stellar season in 2018 as the window on their latest wave of success officially slammed closed.  The team started into full rebuild mode, which was shown by the mid-season trades of any veterans with value: Steve Pearce, JA Happ, Roberto Osuna, and former MVP Josh Donaldson.  Outside of trading these players to contenders, and giving a native Canadian (James Paxton) his first no-hitter on his native soil, the Blue Jays really had an inconsequential season.
The biggest story of the season might have been the fact that their top prospect didn't get the call-up despite every indication that he was ready (keep building the hype!).

Additions / Subtractions

The subtractions were more notable than the additions.  Veteran catcher Russell Martin was moved to the Dodgers, and outfielder Curtis Granderson, as well as infielders Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte, left via free agency.  In their place?  They were replaced internally for the most part.  In fact, outside of starting pitchers Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard entering the organization, the roster is practically unchanged from the way it ended last season.  The most significant change was the firing of longtime manager John Gibbons and the hiring of longtime Rays' coach Charlie Montoyo.

Most Important Hitter

Randal Grichuk

At one point, Randal Grichuk was a top prospect and looked at as a centerpiece of the next generation of Cardinals in St. Louis.  After not being as strong as expected, he was moved to Toronto before last season.  In his first year in Toronto, he was solid hitting 25 homers and a 118 OPS+.  He was third on the team in WAR behind first baseman Justin Smoak and defensive freak Kevin Pillar.  The Blue Jays acquired him with the hope that a change of scenery would help him achieve some of the success his talent once promised.  If he is to be a potential building block of the next wave of Blue Jay success that is around the corner, 2019 is an important year for him to show that he is worthy of it.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

In 2016, Aaron Sanchez was the next great ace in the league.  He went 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA (led the league) and had a 142 ERA+ (league average is 100).  The Blue Jays shut down his season early to control innings and hopefully avoid injuries.  Even with the extra precautions, the injuries came anyways, only throwing 36 innings in 2017 and 105 innings in 2018.  The only encouraging sign is the injuries were mainly revolving around finger injuries and not shoulder or elbow.  Even when he was healthy in 2018, he posted a 4.89 ERA and an 86 ERA+, the first time he dropped below average in his career.  Sanchez is only entering his age 26 season, and if he is healthy the Blue Jays are hoping he returns to form, even if it is just to drive up the asking price for his potential mid-season trade to a contender.

Prospect to Watch

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The hype is real!  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the overall top prospect in baseball and one of the best hitting prospects to come along in the last few decades.  With the success he showed at the plate in the minors last year, he should have been on the roster for the last half of 2018, however the Blue Jays are trying to control service time and keep him in their organization for as long as possible.  Because of that, don't expect to see him in the big leagues until mid-April as the Blue Jays eek out one more extra year of club control.  Once he arrives, be prepared for him to hit.  He may only be 19, but he is ready.  If he stays at third base, watch for two sons of former players, Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette (might be called up by mid-season), to be the future left side of the Toronto infield for the next five or six seasons.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL East

The top of this division is definitely in a different category than the bottom.  The Blue Jays are in no way ready to compete with the top three teams in the division.  They are at least a couple years away from being competitive again.  However, as soon as Vlad Jr. is called us to big leagues, no one will be able to say they aren't exciting.  Vlad will mark the start of a new wave of stud prospects hitting the big league club over the next few seasons that will make them competitive again.  Until then, enjoy watching Vlad hit.  It will be one of the few things the Blue Jay fans will have to cheer for this season, especially if guys like Bo Bichette are held back unfairly like Vlad Jr. was.

Fearless Prediction

Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez will be traded mid-season.

The Blue Jays are probably eyeing 2021 or 2022 as their peak year to really start competing again in the AL East.  That is when their top prospects will really be hitting their prime.  Both Stroman and Sanchez will be free agents after the 2021 season.  Add that to the fact that the top of the Blue Jays' farm system is loaded with hitters but lacking a little in the pitching department, and it would make sense if they decided to move these two potential aces now to bring back some pitching prospects that will be peaking at the same time as the rest of their prospects.  Either way, if they are not viewed as being on the team when the Blue Jays plan on being competitive again, trade them now.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#22

The Toronto Blue Jays went from perennial playoff contender to irrelevance in 2017.  Does 2018 bring a return to form or more of the same?

2017 Predictions

5th in AL East

No Blue Jays starting pitcher will start more than 30 games.

2017 Results

76-86, 4th in AL East

I had a pretty good read on the Blue Jays last year.  Losing some key pieces, watching others age in front of them, and fighting through injuries led to them only one game out of the cellar in the AL East.  As for their pitching, Marcus Stroman and JA Happ were able to each start 33 games, however 2016 All Star Aaron Sanchez had the setback I predicted, only pitching 36 innings in an injury-plagued campaign.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays made some minor moves for some veterans that will help fill out their roster in 2018.  The most noteworthy additions were veteran Curtis Granderson to man leftfield and former top prospect Randal Grichuk to man rightfield.  Some other minor moves for depth were infielders Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz along with pitchers Jaime Garcia and Seung Hwan Oh.  None of these moves could be considered huge difference makers (maybe Grichuk), but it helps the lineup look respectable in 2018 as opposed to some of the "extreme tankers" (Marlins, I'm looking at you).

Most Important Hitter

Justin Smoak

In 2017, Justin Smoak went from a prime example of potential that never delivers to finally putting it all together to be an All Star.  Now entering 2018, the Blue Jays are going to be relying on Smoak to anchor the center of their order with Josh Donaldson.  More times than not, when a player has a spike year like Smoak did in 2017, it is more likely for it to be a fluke instead of a sign of good things to come.  The Blue Jays are really hoping Smoak can buck the trend.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

Over the last few seasons, Marcus Stroman has emerged as one of the better pitchers in baseball.  Only entering his age 27 season, Stroman will try and repeat a productive 2017 that started with him dominating in the WBC and finished with him being the best player on the Blue Jays in terms of WAR.  Stroman is the ultimate competitor.  Will he be able to stay interested and on top of his game if the Blue Jays aren't in contention?  Also, he has thrown over 200 innings the last two seasons.  He has not had a history of arm issues (although he is working through some shoulder inflammation right now).  Will he be able to avoid the inevitable lost season young pitchers have had to arm problems?

Prospect to Watch

Anthony Alford

The Blue Jays have a pretty stacked farm system, highlighted by a couple second generation big leaguers.  However, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are still at least a year away from being ready for the big leagues.  The intriguing one to watch for 2018 is Anthony Alford.  This former football player for Southern Miss is a crazy athlete with blazing speed.  His other tools are still developing, but the Blue Jays would love to see him break through in leftfield at some point this year and maybe even be their leadoff hitter with a little pop.

2018 Prediction

3rd in AL East

Predicting them to finish in the middle of the AL East might be a little deceiving.  The Yankees and Red Sox are the only teams in this division that will finish over .500.  The Blue Jays are actually set up well moving forward.  They have some big-time prospects waiting in the wings and a decent pitching staff, led by Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, that will still be there when they are ready to compete again.  This season might not be a success in Toronto, but they are building to something great.

Fearless Prediction

2018 will be Josh Donaldson's last season as a Blue Jay.

Josh Donaldson only has one more year of control after 2018.  His relationship with the Blue Jays' front office has been rocky at best throughout his time in Toronto.  Chances are he will not be re-signing with the Blue Jays.  The Blue Jays probably don't want him back considering they have one of the top prospects in the world (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) that plays third base.  So all this leads to, ideally, an offseason trade to bring back more prospects that will support this new wave that will be ready to compete in a few years.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#19

The Toronto Blue Jays came just short of the World Series in 2016.  What do their prospects look like for the 2017 season?  Will they get over the hump, or fall back to the pack?

2016 Predictions

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

This will be the last year the Blue Jays make the playoffs for a decade.

2016 Results

89-73, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in ALCS

I was all in on the Blue Jays in 2016.  I had them coming up short in the World Series.  It turns out their playoff run came up a little short of that thanks to an insanely hot Cleveland Indians team.  If nothing else, the Blue Jays showed they know how to compete.  As for my Fearless Prediction, only time will tell.

Additions / Subtractions

My look ahead in my Fearless Prediction was based on how this offseason was going to go for the Blue Jays.  It had the potential to be catastrophic.  Although it didn't hit the depths it could have, it still was pretty bad.  They watched All Stars Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders walk away.  They re-signed aging slugger Jose Bautista for a discount only when it became apparent that no one else wanted him.  After losing these key pieces, the only player brought in was DH Kendrys Morales, quite the downgrade over Encarnacion.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

This is the same player I highlighted in this position last year, but it is even more true this year than last year.  There was a time when Tulo was one of the best players in baseball.  The only question was if he could stay healthy.  Ever since he moved to Toronto from Denver, his production has fallen apart.  At his best, Tulowitzki was almost a 7 win player when you look at WAR.  In 2016, he was just over a 3 win player.  That's not terrible, but it's not superstar level either.  With the loss of Encarnacion and Saunders and the deterioration of Joey Bats, the Blue Jays need Tulo to be the superstar again.  It would also help if he could play over 140 games, a feat he has only accomplished 3 times in his 10 year career.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

The Blue Jays had outstanding performances from some of their starters last season, most notably JA Happ and Marco Estrada.  However, the real spark was Aaron Sanchez.  The 23 year old had 15 wins and almost 200 innings.  He would have surpassed that threshold if the team let him, but they decided to shut him down late in the year to control his workload.  However, a pitcher rarely sees his inning count go up by 100 in one year without any ill effects.  With the offense possibly taking a step back this year, the pitching needs to step up and as good if not better than 2016.  Their ability to do this starts and ends with Sanchez, his health, and his ability to duplicate his dominance from a year ago.

Player to Watch

Rowdy Tellez

The Blue Jays are a few years away from their top prospects making an impact on the big league roster (however we all look forward to the debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr.).  One player who might have a chance to make an impact this season is first baseman Rowdy Tellez.  The incumbent in Toronto is Justin Smoak, who all Mariner fans know is the definition of a bust (he has a career WAR of 1.5 ... he has "boasted" a negative WAR in more seasons than a positive WAR).  Tellez, listed at 6'4" and 220 pounds, has the potential to be a serious power threat at the next level.  Look for the Blue Jays to give up on Smoak at some point this season and give Tellez a shot.

2017 Prediction

5th in AL East

This might be a little dramatic, but I could easily see it happen.  The Blue Jays are coming crashing back down to Earth this season.  Everyone else in this division is trending up.  Instead, the Blue Jays have done nothing to improve themselves while getting a year older in the process.  The pitching staff won't repeat their performance from last year (although Marcus Stroman could have a breakout season), and the offense looks a lot like the Angels now, which is one of the weakest offenses in the game.  They both have one superstar (Josh Donaldson), an aging slugger who is a shell of his former self (Jose Bautista), and a roster that otherwise sports more busts than bombs.  I'm holding to my prediction from last season.  Count this as year 1 of 10 upcoming years of futility north of the border.

Fearless Prediction

No Blue Jays starting pitcher will start more than 30 games.

One of the reasons I see the Blue Jays falling apart this year is their pitching staff.  They all had amazing seasons last year, but so many times seasons like that are followed by injuries.  JA Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Francisco Liriano all could spend significant time on the DL.  Marcus Stroman is a stud, but I could easily see his workload in the World Baseball Classic catching up with him.  Look for the Blue Jays to be scrambling for starting pitching by mid-season.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

In 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs for the first time since their last World Series run in 1993.  Will they be able to go a step further in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

2015 Result: 93-69, 1st in AL East, lost in ALCS

I predicted 2015 would be the year the Blue Jays finally broke through and got back to the postseason.  I even had them losing to the Royals once they got there.  The problem was I had them losing in the wrong round.  Some late season trades really beefed up their lineup to make this big impact down the stretch.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

After being the most active team at the 2015 Trade Deadline, the Blue Jays had a fairly quiet offseason.  They lost David Price to free agency.  They traded Ben Revere, who had been acquired in one of the many 2015 deadline deals, to the Nats for reliever Drew Storen.  They also signed veteran lefty J.A. Happ to add depth to the rotation.  That was about it.  However, the formula was pretty good last year so they really didn't have much to change.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

Everyone was shocked last year when the Jays pulled off this trade for the best established shortstop in the game.  They had a formidable lineup before the trade when Jose Reyes was their shortstop.  Now, with Tulo joining Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of that lineup, they may have one of the best lineups top to bottom of the last decade.  There is only one problem with Tulowitzki: health.  He is now in his 11th season in the big leagues.  He has played over 140 games in a season only three times in his career.  Losing Price is a blow to their pitching.  They will have to outscore more teams than they want to.  To do that, they need a healthy Tulo adding to this elite lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

The hopes and dreams of the Blue Jays this season rest on the arm of Marcus Stroman.  He was set to be their ace in 2015 until he tore his ACL before the season even started.  This forced them to make a trade for a guy like David Price down the stretch.  Now that Price left, Stroman needs to be the elite arm that anchors this pitching staff moving forward.  He has the ability to do it.  The question is if this 25 year old is ready for it.  If the Jays are going to reach the heights they want to reach this year, he has to be great.

Player to Watch

Chad Girodo

The Blue Jays have a decent farm system, however most of their talent is still a few years off.  Only three players in their top 30 prospects on mlb.com are projected to be ready at some point this year.  The highest ranked, and most likely to have a big impact, is Chad Girodo.  If there is a weakness of the Blue Jays, it is their pitching.  Look for a rookie like Girodo, a crafty 25 year old lefty, to have a chance at some point this season.

2016 Prediction

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

The Blue Jays may have lost some dude-ness from their rotation losing David Price, but with a full year from Stroman and Tulo, I see an offense that can outscore anybody and a pitching staff that won't miss Price as much as some people think.  Also, there still is another Trade Deadline coming up this year, and don't be surprised to see another deadline move for an arm.  I see the Jays getting one step further before they run into the buzz saw that will be the Giants' pitching in the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

This will be the last year the Blue Jays will make the playoffs for a decade.

The Blue Jays have a great core they have built over the last few years, but it is all about to fall apart.  Jose Bautista has already come out and said he will be on sale to the highest bidder when he becomes a free agent this winter.  Expect the same from Edwin Encarnacion, meaning neither of them are likely to come back.  Josh Donaldson is under contract through 2017, but with the way the Jays mishandled his contract negotiations this offseason, don't expect him to stay after that.  They have Tulo through 2020 if he can stay on the field.  This entire lineup they have built, one of the best lineups I can remember that actually works and produces, will be dismantled over the next few years.  Along with it will go any chance the Blue Jays have of being elite.  So enjoy it while it lasts.  This powerhouse has an expiration date.