2017 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Toronto Blue Jays came just short of the World Series in 2016.  What do their prospects look like for the 2017 season?  Will they get over the hump, or fall back to the pack?

2016 Predictions

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

This will be the last year the Blue Jays make the playoffs for a decade.

2016 Results

89-73, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in ALCS

I was all in on the Blue Jays in 2016.  I had them coming up short in the World Series.  It turns out their playoff run came up a little short of that thanks to an insanely hot Cleveland Indians team.  If nothing else, the Blue Jays showed they know how to compete.  As for my Fearless Prediction, only time will tell.

Additions / Subtractions

My look ahead in my Fearless Prediction was based on how this offseason was going to go for the Blue Jays.  It had the potential to be catastrophic.  Although it didn't hit the depths it could have, it still was pretty bad.  They watched All Stars Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders walk away.  They re-signed aging slugger Jose Bautista for a discount only when it became apparent that no one else wanted him.  After losing these key pieces, the only player brought in was DH Kendrys Morales, quite the downgrade over Encarnacion.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

This is the same player I highlighted in this position last year, but it is even more true this year than last year.  There was a time when Tulo was one of the best players in baseball.  The only question was if he could stay healthy.  Ever since he moved to Toronto from Denver, his production has fallen apart.  At his best, Tulowitzki was almost a 7 win player when you look at WAR.  In 2016, he was just over a 3 win player.  That's not terrible, but it's not superstar level either.  With the loss of Encarnacion and Saunders and the deterioration of Joey Bats, the Blue Jays need Tulo to be the superstar again.  It would also help if he could play over 140 games, a feat he has only accomplished 3 times in his 10 year career.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

The Blue Jays had outstanding performances from some of their starters last season, most notably JA Happ and Marco Estrada.  However, the real spark was Aaron Sanchez.  The 23 year old had 15 wins and almost 200 innings.  He would have surpassed that threshold if the team let him, but they decided to shut him down late in the year to control his workload.  However, a pitcher rarely sees his inning count go up by 100 in one year without any ill effects.  With the offense possibly taking a step back this year, the pitching needs to step up and as good if not better than 2016.  Their ability to do this starts and ends with Sanchez, his health, and his ability to duplicate his dominance from a year ago.

Player to Watch

Rowdy Tellez

The Blue Jays are a few years away from their top prospects making an impact on the big league roster (however we all look forward to the debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr.).  One player who might have a chance to make an impact this season is first baseman Rowdy Tellez.  The incumbent in Toronto is Justin Smoak, who all Mariner fans know is the definition of a bust (he has a career WAR of 1.5 ... he has "boasted" a negative WAR in more seasons than a positive WAR).  Tellez, listed at 6'4" and 220 pounds, has the potential to be a serious power threat at the next level.  Look for the Blue Jays to give up on Smoak at some point this season and give Tellez a shot.

2017 Prediction

5th in AL East

This might be a little dramatic, but I could easily see it happen.  The Blue Jays are coming crashing back down to Earth this season.  Everyone else in this division is trending up.  Instead, the Blue Jays have done nothing to improve themselves while getting a year older in the process.  The pitching staff won't repeat their performance from last year (although Marcus Stroman could have a breakout season), and the offense looks a lot like the Angels now, which is one of the weakest offenses in the game.  They both have one superstar (Josh Donaldson), an aging slugger who is a shell of his former self (Jose Bautista), and a roster that otherwise sports more busts than bombs.  I'm holding to my prediction from last season.  Count this as year 1 of 10 upcoming years of futility north of the border.

Fearless Prediction

No Blue Jays starting pitcher will start more than 30 games.

One of the reasons I see the Blue Jays falling apart this year is their pitching staff.  They all had amazing seasons last year, but so many times seasons like that are followed by injuries.  JA Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Francisco Liriano all could spend significant time on the DL.  Marcus Stroman is a stud, but I could easily see his workload in the World Baseball Classic catching up with him.  Look for the Blue Jays to be scrambling for starting pitching by mid-season.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

In 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs for the first time since their last World Series run in 1993.  Will they be able to go a step further in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

2015 Result: 93-69, 1st in AL East, lost in ALCS

I predicted 2015 would be the year the Blue Jays finally broke through and got back to the postseason.  I even had them losing to the Royals once they got there.  The problem was I had them losing in the wrong round.  Some late season trades really beefed up their lineup to make this big impact down the stretch.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

After being the most active team at the 2015 Trade Deadline, the Blue Jays had a fairly quiet offseason.  They lost David Price to free agency.  They traded Ben Revere, who had been acquired in one of the many 2015 deadline deals, to the Nats for reliever Drew Storen.  They also signed veteran lefty J.A. Happ to add depth to the rotation.  That was about it.  However, the formula was pretty good last year so they really didn't have much to change.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

Everyone was shocked last year when the Jays pulled off this trade for the best established shortstop in the game.  They had a formidable lineup before the trade when Jose Reyes was their shortstop.  Now, with Tulo joining Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of that lineup, they may have one of the best lineups top to bottom of the last decade.  There is only one problem with Tulowitzki: health.  He is now in his 11th season in the big leagues.  He has played over 140 games in a season only three times in his career.  Losing Price is a blow to their pitching.  They will have to outscore more teams than they want to.  To do that, they need a healthy Tulo adding to this elite lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

The hopes and dreams of the Blue Jays this season rest on the arm of Marcus Stroman.  He was set to be their ace in 2015 until he tore his ACL before the season even started.  This forced them to make a trade for a guy like David Price down the stretch.  Now that Price left, Stroman needs to be the elite arm that anchors this pitching staff moving forward.  He has the ability to do it.  The question is if this 25 year old is ready for it.  If the Jays are going to reach the heights they want to reach this year, he has to be great.

Player to Watch

Chad Girodo

The Blue Jays have a decent farm system, however most of their talent is still a few years off.  Only three players in their top 30 prospects on mlb.com are projected to be ready at some point this year.  The highest ranked, and most likely to have a big impact, is Chad Girodo.  If there is a weakness of the Blue Jays, it is their pitching.  Look for a rookie like Girodo, a crafty 25 year old lefty, to have a chance at some point this season.

2016 Prediction

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

The Blue Jays may have lost some dude-ness from their rotation losing David Price, but with a full year from Stroman and Tulo, I see an offense that can outscore anybody and a pitching staff that won't miss Price as much as some people think.  Also, there still is another Trade Deadline coming up this year, and don't be surprised to see another deadline move for an arm.  I see the Jays getting one step further before they run into the buzz saw that will be the Giants' pitching in the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

This will be the last year the Blue Jays will make the playoffs for a decade.

The Blue Jays have a great core they have built over the last few years, but it is all about to fall apart.  Jose Bautista has already come out and said he will be on sale to the highest bidder when he becomes a free agent this winter.  Expect the same from Edwin Encarnacion, meaning neither of them are likely to come back.  Josh Donaldson is under contract through 2017, but with the way the Jays mishandled his contract negotiations this offseason, don't expect him to stay after that.  They have Tulo through 2020 if he can stay on the field.  This entire lineup they have built, one of the best lineups I can remember that actually works and produces, will be dismantled over the next few years.  Along with it will go any chance the Blue Jays have of being elite.  So enjoy it while it lasts.  This powerhouse has an expiration date.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

Slowly but surely, the Toronto Blue Jays have been working their way up the most competitive division in baseball.  Will this year lead to their first playoff since their World Series win in 1993?

Last Season

83-79, 3rd in AL East

The Orioles may have run away with the division last year, but the Blue Jays made the biggest strides, finishing with a record above .500 for the first time since 2010.  More than almost any other team in baseball, Toronto has been actively working to improve their team any way they can, and it all finally started to pay off.  Finishing only a game out of 2nd place, there is a lot of optimism that they will be able to take the next step and make the playoffs.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

As has become expected, the Blue Jays were once again active this offseason in improving their team.  Snatching up some solid pieces like Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, and Dayan Viciedo will add to the depth of their roster, but the biggest acquisitions were definitely Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin.  Donaldson is widely regarded as one of the best third basemen in the game, balancing power with Gold Glove caliber defense.  With Russell Martin, the Blue Jays not only acquired a solid offensive threat, but one of the best game managers behind the plate.  Martin strikes me as one of those future managers once he retires.  Having Russell Martin makes every pitcher on their team instantly better.  As far as subtractions go, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus were players that needed to see if a change of scenery would actually help them achieve the potential they once had.  Melky Cabrera will be missed, but seems to have been replaced.  On the pitching side, losing JA Happ and Brandon Morrow are hardly devastating.  The biggest loss is actually Marcus Stroman, who tore his ACL recently and will miss the season.

Most Important Hitter

Jose Reyes

The Blue Jays definitely have some pop in the middle of their lineup with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and now Josh Donaldson.  The success of their offense will depend on if there is anyone on base for the heart of their lineup to drive in.  It is hard to believe Jose Reyes will be turning 32 this season.  He has been a solid lead-off hitter his entire career.  However, due to a myriad of injuries throughout his career, he has never emerged as one of the best in the game like everyone thought he would when he was a prospect for the Mets.  The Blue Jays, although they wouldn't complain, do not need Reyes to be the superstar.  They simply need him to be consistent and healthy.  In 2014, he played 143 games, hit .287, and stole 30 bases.  In 2013, he was limited to just 93 games.  He seems to miss significant time about every other year.  Toronto needs that trend to break.

Most Important Pitcher

Brett Cecil

If last year taught us anything, it taught us that a bullpen can make or break a team.  There is no way the Kansas City Royals make the World Series without the best bullpen in baseball.  This is partially why it was so surprising the Blue Jays make no moves to better their bullpen this offseason.  Last year's closer, Casey Janssen, has moved on, and wasn't that successful for them to begin with.  Instead of going out and finding a closer, the Blue Jays have decided to go with what they have, promoting Brett Cecil to the position.  For this season to be successful, they have to have consistency in the 9th inning.  Cecil is the guy that will start the year as the closer.  If he ends the year as the closer, the Blue Jays made the right move by not making a move.

Player to Watch

Daniel Norris

With the injury to Marcus Stroman, there is a hole in a rotation that wasn't elite to begin with.  That hole might be filled by top prospect Daniel Norris.  Known more right now for living in his van throughout the offseason, Norris is actually the Blue Jays top prospect and ranked #18 on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects in baseball.  Given the opportunity, he may prove this year why he is so highly thought of.

Prediction

1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

(Sorry, I couldn't go an article about the Blue Jays without mentioning Munenori Kawasaki.)

For being one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, the AL East might be leading the spring in question marks.  Will the Red Sox bounce back?  Can the Orioles repeat without replacing what they lost?  Do the aging Yankees have another run in them?  Can the Rays still be competitive without Joe Maddon?  The Blue Jays may have the fewest question marks entering the season.  They have no problem scoring runs, which is rare in today's game.  They have adequate pitching.  It is time for them to end their postseason drought.  They will not make it far (like I said, pitching wins in the playoffs), but they will revitalize a fan base that has been yearning for winner for over 20 years.

2014 MLB Predictions: AL East

It's that magical time of year again.  I firmly believe that baseball Opening Day should be a national holiday so everyone can spend the day enjoying our National Pastime.  With the long grind of 162 games ahead of them, every team is optimistic that this year could be the year.  This off-season, big names were on the move while young top prospects won jobs on the big league rosters.  How will the final standings look when October comes around?  I know I'm a little late getting these predictions out, but they were all made before the season started.

Let's start our look at the 2014 MLB season by previewing the most unpredictable division in all of baseball: the AL East.  For the last few years, this division has had the ability from year to year to legitimately be in any standings order at season's end.  This is shown by how wrong my predictions were last year.  However, one thing I had right was that every team in the division would be good, predicting that the cellar team would still be within 5-10 games of .500 (Blue Jays finished 14 games under .500).  This year is no different.  Every team has seemed to re-load for yet another run with one of the greatest players of our generation making his final tour around the league.  Let's see what could happen.

1.  New York Yankees

The pinstripes always have to be in the mix.  Last year, they did finish in fourth, but were still 8 games over .500 with a seriously depleted roster due to injuries.  They went out in free-angency and made some big splashes.  Even though the biggest splash of the off-season was Robinson Cano leaving the pinstripes, the Yankees added one of the top lead-off hitters in baseball in Jacoby Ellsbury from the rival Red Sox, possibly the most productive offensive catcher of the last decade in Brian McCann, a player so clutch it only makes sense he's a Yankee in Carlos Beltran, and the biggest name on the pitching market in Masahiro Tanaka who is starting the season as their 4th starter.  They spent more money this off-season than the Rays will spend over the next 5 years.  Add that to the fact that they now have a healthy Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter, and this team has to be the favorite in the division.  Now last year I predicted the Blue Jays would win the division because of the huge blockbuster deals they made over the off-season.  That didn't quite work out, but the Yankees are not the Blue Jays.  They have an experienced coach in Joe Girardi, and all the pieces they added are proven veterans that know what it means to win.  I expect them to rise to the top and send Derek Jeter out in style.

2.  Boston Red Sox

There is a constant debate in baseball right now between the old school and new school thinkers.  Can baseball be managed and predicted strictly on statistics, or are things like chemistry and attitude still valuable?  No argument for the old school way of thinking would be more convincing than the 2013 Boston Red Sox.  In 2012, they were in the cellar and sold off most of their top players.  Last year, they got a new manager, added a couple "clubhouse" guys (a term sabermatricians cringe at), and went from worst in the division to winning it all.  A sabermatrician would say this doesn't make sense.  However, it happened.  This year, it's a very similar roster.  They lost Ellsbury and are replacing him with a rookie (Jackie Bradley, Jr.) and a veteran making attempting a comeback (Grady Sizemore).  However, as long as they have guys like David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia leading the way (without a manger that gets in their way), they will be at the top of the league.  Them being in second has less to with what they lost and more to do with what the Yankees gained.  The Yankees ad Red Sox back on top ... all is right in the world.

3.  Baltimore Orioles

I bet the Orioles wish they could switch divisions.  Baltimore has been one of the strongest teams to not go anywhere over the last couple years.  Sharing a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays makes this an impossible division to break through in.  They have a great young core led by Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado.  They made some big moves in free angency, adding Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez.  They have a great chance of making a splash.  They would be poised for a deep playoff run if they didn't have to play in this division.  They will instead be fighting for a wild card spot and fall just a little short.

4.  Tampa Bay Rays

In another case of "How the heck do they do what they do," we the Fighting Joe Madden's.  This team has looked very similar to teams that usually are found in the cellars of divisions.  They have solid pitching, but the offense is average at best, embarrassing at worst.  No team has been no hit more recently than the Rays.  With the shopping spree of the Yankees and the emergence of the Orioles, this Wild Card team from last year will drop back a couple notches in the best division in baseball.

5.  Toronto Blue Jays

When thinking about the biggest additions and subtractions of each team entering this season, the biggest subtraction I could think of for the Blue Jays is expectations.  Last year, they went all in, buying and trading for All Stars and Cy Young candidates to build a superpower to rival their divisional foes.  Well, that did not pan out as some players were injured while others simply underwhelmed.  The biggest highlight of the season was discovering that they have the biggest character in all of baseball.  Yes, he is Japanese.  They didn't really lose any of the major players, but this year the expectations are just much lower.  With the strength of everyone else in the division, this is the consensus cellar dweller of the AL East.  However, would it greatly surprise anyone if they made a run at a wild card spot.  Not at all.

There is the AL East.  Stay tuned for more.