2019 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#20

The Seattle Mariners followed up an 89 win season in 2018 with a crazy active offseason that reset their roster for the second time in three years, this time aiming for more sustainable success.  Will all these moves lead to similar success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL West

Ichiro will be released by Memorial Day.

2018 Results

89-73, 3rd in AL West

Although the Mariners ended up exactly where I predicted them to be, it says little about the season they had.  For most of 2018, the Mariners looked destined to end their long playoff drought until a tough stretch to end the season, combined with a furious charge by the A's, kept them from the postseason.  Through many ups and downs, including Ichiro only lasting a month (but not leaving the organization) and a half and Robinson Cano getting suspended for steroids, the season had to be considered a success even without the playoff berth.

Additions / Subtractions

General manager Jerry DiPoto can't help but make move after move every offseason.  This winter saw several blockbuster trades that, as he said, "re-imagined" the Mariners roster.  First, catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia were sent to Tampa Bay for centerfielder Mallex Smith.  Then, second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz were sent to the Mets for outfielder Jay Bruce, top prospects Jerred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, and reliever prospect Gerson Bautista.  Then, ace James Paxton was traded to the Yankees for pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson.  Then, shortstop Jean Segura along with relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos was traded to the Phillies for shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford and slugger Carlos Santana.  Then, Carlos Santana was traded to the Indians for slugger Edwin Encarnacion.  Then, reliever Alex Colome was traded to the White Sox for catcher Omar Narvaez.  Then, outfielder Ben Gamel was traded to the Brewers for outfielder Domingo Santana.  Then, Nelson Cruz, Denard Span, Cameron Maybin, Nick Vincent, and Erasmo Ramirez left in free agency.  Coming in through free agency were shortstop Tim Beckham, closer Hunter Strickland, and Japanese ace Yusei Kikuchi.  It is like DiPoto treats the Mariners roster the way I would treat my fantasy roster.

Most Important Hitter

Dee Gordon

One of the bigger acquisitions of last offseason was speedster Dee Gordon.  After an experiment of putting him in centerfield was thwarted by the Cano suspension, he is entering 2019 as the Mariners starting second baseman.  A former batting champion in 2015, Gordon fought through injuries to a disappointing season of just hitting .268 and an ERA+ of 79.  Looking at Gordon's track record, he tends to alternate good seasons and bad seasons.  2015 was good, 2016 was poor.  2017 was good, 2018 was poor.  Now we are in 2019, and the on base machine should be back at it.  If that happens, he will either emerge as a top veteran leader of this club or be the latest to be traded for more prospects.

Most Important Pitcher

Marco Gonzales

One of the biggest developments of the 2018 season was the emergence of Marco Gonzales as the new ace of the Mariners staff, especially once James Paxton was traded.  Marco's season had ups and downs, but when he was on there were few better.  He will end Felix Hernandez's streak of 10 straight Opening Day starts, and no one argues that he hasn't earned it.  He is now a few years removed from Tommy John surgery, with 2018 being his first full season in the big leagues.  He threw 166.2 innings in 2018.  Before that, his high innings count in the big leagues was 40 innings in 2017.  The biggest question for Marco's 2019 season is whether he will continue to progress and grow into the staff ace or if he will break down from too much work.

Prospect to Watch

Justus Sheffield

All those trades made this offseason took the Mariners farm system from being worst in the league to almost hitting the top 10.  The best prospect they received is also the one most likely to have a big impact this season.  Justus Sheffield pitched sparingly for the Yankees last season, mainly providing some depth in the bullpen at the end of the season.  However, look for Sheffield to be a staple of the Mariners rotation by the end of this season and join Marco, Kikuchi, and Wade LeBlanc in the super lefty-heavy rotation.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL West

This team is nowhere near as good as it was last year.  Too many productive veterans were moved for too many unproven prospects.  However, the thought behind the moves seems to have been achieved.  If they win 89 games and can't make the playoffs right now, then there isn't much they can do to get over that hump as things stand today.  So take a step back, and live to fight in 2020 and 2021, when some of the powerhouses (Astros, Yankees, Red Sox) may need to start looking at breaking up their current core due to either age or free agency.  That is when the Mariners are now looking at peaking.  They have a shot to be around .500 this season, but they won't be competing for the playoffs much this season.

Fearless Prediction

Felix Hernandez will not finish the season on the Mariners roster.

The biggest mystery of the Mariners season is what to do with King Felix.  He has been the team's unquestioned ace for over a decade.  However, the last couple season have seen a falloff in production as his workload seems to have caught up with him.  He is entering his age 33 season and the final deal of his 7 year, $175 million deal he signed in 2013.  Everyone keeps waiting for the second stage of his career to start, but it is looking more and more like it will never come.  With the direction this roster is going, I see only two ways this season plays out for Felix: either he plays well enough to get trade value to be moved or he continues his poor play and ends up released.  Either way, as weird as it is to say for the face of this franchise, but it is hard to see a scenario where Felix Hernandez finishes this season on the Mariners roster.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

#6

The Cleveland Indians surprised everyone in 2016 by making a deep postseason run, coming so very close to ending their long championship drought.  Will 2017 provide a repeat performance?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in AL Central

Trevor Bauer will need Tommy John surgery by the end of the season.

2016 Results

94-67, 1st in AL Central, lost World Series

One of my worst predictions of all time was the 2016 Cleveland Indians.  The only consolation I have is I was not alone in doubting the potential of the Tribe.  The Indians rode solid starting pitching, timely hitting, and a dominant bullpen all the way to extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series before their run came to an end by the hand of the Chicago Cubs and a rain delay.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Trevor Bauer did not go down with Tommy John, however he did hurt his team in the playoffs when he had a run-in with a drone.  I'll call that prediction a push.

Additions / Subtractions

The Indians made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by bringing in veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion.  The biggest weakness of the Indians has been their offense, however Encarnacion will definitely improve that aspect as he replaces Mike Napoli as the DH.  Other than that, the Indians are bringing back a very similar roster to last season.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Brantley

Although the Indians didn't make any other big offseason moves, getting Michael Brantley back healthy is like making another big free agent signing.  Brantley was one of the best hitters in baseball for a three or four year stretch.  However, he only played 11 games in 2016 as injuries have really disrupted his career.  Now, he is trying to come back and resume what was becoming a superstar career.  The Indians made their run last season without their best hitter.  It is really remarkable.  If Brantley can come back and be dominant again, the combination of Brantley, Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Lindor will completely change the face of this offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Danny Salazar

I'll be honest with you ... I can't tell the difference between Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.  With Corey Kluber emerging as an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball, these two young arms have been slotted as the second and third starters on the staff.  Their 2016 numbers are almost identical even!  Carrasco started 25 games, and went 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 146.1 innings.  Salazar stared 25 games, and went 11-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 161 strikeouts over 137.1 innings.  By the way, both were also hurt for the playoff run and weren't in the rotation.  They are both quality starters that have the potential to be All Stars.  They both need to take a step forward in 2017 for this pitching staff to improve.  Why am I going with Salazar over Carrasco?  He is three years younger so he has more opportunity to grow.

Player to Watch

Bradley Zimmer

Tyler Naquin is a second year player patrolling centerfield.  Michael Brantley's health is a question mark heading into the season in leftfield.  Journeyman Abraham Almonte is on his third team before the age of 28 and starting in rightfield.  The outfield has some potential holes.  Enter the Indians' top prospect Bradley Zimmer.  This 24 year old prospect has all the makings of a future star in the big leagues.  If one of these question marks fall through during the 2017 season, look for Zimmer to emerge as a future mainstay in their outfield.

2017 Predictions

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

It is so hard to repeat the success of a surprise season like the Indians in 2016.  However, if the Kansas City Royals are any indicator on how to do it, it starts with a dominant bullpen.  That is one thing no one is questioning about the Indians in 2017.  They have too much talent and too good of a manger in Terry Francona to miss the playoffs.  I don't see the magic repeating itself from last year though.  They will be back there soon though.

Fearless Prediction

The Indians will trade for a starting catcher mid-season.

Yan Gomes has been the starting catcher for the Indians in recent years.  However, his 2016 season was terrible.  If he struggles again this year, the Indians will have no choice but to find someone else to be their backstop.  They have a catching prospect in Francisco Mejia that will be ready in the next year or two, but that won't help them this season.  Look for a move to be made for a veteran catcher and for the Indians to give up on Gomes.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#19

The Toronto Blue Jays came just short of the World Series in 2016.  What do their prospects look like for the 2017 season?  Will they get over the hump, or fall back to the pack?

2016 Predictions

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

This will be the last year the Blue Jays make the playoffs for a decade.

2016 Results

89-73, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in ALCS

I was all in on the Blue Jays in 2016.  I had them coming up short in the World Series.  It turns out their playoff run came up a little short of that thanks to an insanely hot Cleveland Indians team.  If nothing else, the Blue Jays showed they know how to compete.  As for my Fearless Prediction, only time will tell.

Additions / Subtractions

My look ahead in my Fearless Prediction was based on how this offseason was going to go for the Blue Jays.  It had the potential to be catastrophic.  Although it didn't hit the depths it could have, it still was pretty bad.  They watched All Stars Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders walk away.  They re-signed aging slugger Jose Bautista for a discount only when it became apparent that no one else wanted him.  After losing these key pieces, the only player brought in was DH Kendrys Morales, quite the downgrade over Encarnacion.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

This is the same player I highlighted in this position last year, but it is even more true this year than last year.  There was a time when Tulo was one of the best players in baseball.  The only question was if he could stay healthy.  Ever since he moved to Toronto from Denver, his production has fallen apart.  At his best, Tulowitzki was almost a 7 win player when you look at WAR.  In 2016, he was just over a 3 win player.  That's not terrible, but it's not superstar level either.  With the loss of Encarnacion and Saunders and the deterioration of Joey Bats, the Blue Jays need Tulo to be the superstar again.  It would also help if he could play over 140 games, a feat he has only accomplished 3 times in his 10 year career.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

The Blue Jays had outstanding performances from some of their starters last season, most notably JA Happ and Marco Estrada.  However, the real spark was Aaron Sanchez.  The 23 year old had 15 wins and almost 200 innings.  He would have surpassed that threshold if the team let him, but they decided to shut him down late in the year to control his workload.  However, a pitcher rarely sees his inning count go up by 100 in one year without any ill effects.  With the offense possibly taking a step back this year, the pitching needs to step up and as good if not better than 2016.  Their ability to do this starts and ends with Sanchez, his health, and his ability to duplicate his dominance from a year ago.

Player to Watch

Rowdy Tellez

The Blue Jays are a few years away from their top prospects making an impact on the big league roster (however we all look forward to the debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr.).  One player who might have a chance to make an impact this season is first baseman Rowdy Tellez.  The incumbent in Toronto is Justin Smoak, who all Mariner fans know is the definition of a bust (he has a career WAR of 1.5 ... he has "boasted" a negative WAR in more seasons than a positive WAR).  Tellez, listed at 6'4" and 220 pounds, has the potential to be a serious power threat at the next level.  Look for the Blue Jays to give up on Smoak at some point this season and give Tellez a shot.

2017 Prediction

5th in AL East

This might be a little dramatic, but I could easily see it happen.  The Blue Jays are coming crashing back down to Earth this season.  Everyone else in this division is trending up.  Instead, the Blue Jays have done nothing to improve themselves while getting a year older in the process.  The pitching staff won't repeat their performance from last year (although Marcus Stroman could have a breakout season), and the offense looks a lot like the Angels now, which is one of the weakest offenses in the game.  They both have one superstar (Josh Donaldson), an aging slugger who is a shell of his former self (Jose Bautista), and a roster that otherwise sports more busts than bombs.  I'm holding to my prediction from last season.  Count this as year 1 of 10 upcoming years of futility north of the border.

Fearless Prediction

No Blue Jays starting pitcher will start more than 30 games.

One of the reasons I see the Blue Jays falling apart this year is their pitching staff.  They all had amazing seasons last year, but so many times seasons like that are followed by injuries.  JA Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Francisco Liriano all could spend significant time on the DL.  Marcus Stroman is a stud, but I could easily see his workload in the World Baseball Classic catching up with him.  Look for the Blue Jays to be scrambling for starting pitching by mid-season.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

In 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs for the first time since their last World Series run in 1993.  Will they be able to go a step further in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

2015 Result: 93-69, 1st in AL East, lost in ALCS

I predicted 2015 would be the year the Blue Jays finally broke through and got back to the postseason.  I even had them losing to the Royals once they got there.  The problem was I had them losing in the wrong round.  Some late season trades really beefed up their lineup to make this big impact down the stretch.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

After being the most active team at the 2015 Trade Deadline, the Blue Jays had a fairly quiet offseason.  They lost David Price to free agency.  They traded Ben Revere, who had been acquired in one of the many 2015 deadline deals, to the Nats for reliever Drew Storen.  They also signed veteran lefty J.A. Happ to add depth to the rotation.  That was about it.  However, the formula was pretty good last year so they really didn't have much to change.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

Everyone was shocked last year when the Jays pulled off this trade for the best established shortstop in the game.  They had a formidable lineup before the trade when Jose Reyes was their shortstop.  Now, with Tulo joining Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of that lineup, they may have one of the best lineups top to bottom of the last decade.  There is only one problem with Tulowitzki: health.  He is now in his 11th season in the big leagues.  He has played over 140 games in a season only three times in his career.  Losing Price is a blow to their pitching.  They will have to outscore more teams than they want to.  To do that, they need a healthy Tulo adding to this elite lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

The hopes and dreams of the Blue Jays this season rest on the arm of Marcus Stroman.  He was set to be their ace in 2015 until he tore his ACL before the season even started.  This forced them to make a trade for a guy like David Price down the stretch.  Now that Price left, Stroman needs to be the elite arm that anchors this pitching staff moving forward.  He has the ability to do it.  The question is if this 25 year old is ready for it.  If the Jays are going to reach the heights they want to reach this year, he has to be great.

Player to Watch

Chad Girodo

The Blue Jays have a decent farm system, however most of their talent is still a few years off.  Only three players in their top 30 prospects on mlb.com are projected to be ready at some point this year.  The highest ranked, and most likely to have a big impact, is Chad Girodo.  If there is a weakness of the Blue Jays, it is their pitching.  Look for a rookie like Girodo, a crafty 25 year old lefty, to have a chance at some point this season.

2016 Prediction

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

The Blue Jays may have lost some dude-ness from their rotation losing David Price, but with a full year from Stroman and Tulo, I see an offense that can outscore anybody and a pitching staff that won't miss Price as much as some people think.  Also, there still is another Trade Deadline coming up this year, and don't be surprised to see another deadline move for an arm.  I see the Jays getting one step further before they run into the buzz saw that will be the Giants' pitching in the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

This will be the last year the Blue Jays will make the playoffs for a decade.

The Blue Jays have a great core they have built over the last few years, but it is all about to fall apart.  Jose Bautista has already come out and said he will be on sale to the highest bidder when he becomes a free agent this winter.  Expect the same from Edwin Encarnacion, meaning neither of them are likely to come back.  Josh Donaldson is under contract through 2017, but with the way the Jays mishandled his contract negotiations this offseason, don't expect him to stay after that.  They have Tulo through 2020 if he can stay on the field.  This entire lineup they have built, one of the best lineups I can remember that actually works and produces, will be dismantled over the next few years.  Along with it will go any chance the Blue Jays have of being elite.  So enjoy it while it lasts.  This powerhouse has an expiration date.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

Slowly but surely, the Toronto Blue Jays have been working their way up the most competitive division in baseball.  Will this year lead to their first playoff since their World Series win in 1993?

Last Season

83-79, 3rd in AL East

The Orioles may have run away with the division last year, but the Blue Jays made the biggest strides, finishing with a record above .500 for the first time since 2010.  More than almost any other team in baseball, Toronto has been actively working to improve their team any way they can, and it all finally started to pay off.  Finishing only a game out of 2nd place, there is a lot of optimism that they will be able to take the next step and make the playoffs.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

As has become expected, the Blue Jays were once again active this offseason in improving their team.  Snatching up some solid pieces like Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, and Dayan Viciedo will add to the depth of their roster, but the biggest acquisitions were definitely Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin.  Donaldson is widely regarded as one of the best third basemen in the game, balancing power with Gold Glove caliber defense.  With Russell Martin, the Blue Jays not only acquired a solid offensive threat, but one of the best game managers behind the plate.  Martin strikes me as one of those future managers once he retires.  Having Russell Martin makes every pitcher on their team instantly better.  As far as subtractions go, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus were players that needed to see if a change of scenery would actually help them achieve the potential they once had.  Melky Cabrera will be missed, but seems to have been replaced.  On the pitching side, losing JA Happ and Brandon Morrow are hardly devastating.  The biggest loss is actually Marcus Stroman, who tore his ACL recently and will miss the season.

Most Important Hitter

Jose Reyes

The Blue Jays definitely have some pop in the middle of their lineup with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and now Josh Donaldson.  The success of their offense will depend on if there is anyone on base for the heart of their lineup to drive in.  It is hard to believe Jose Reyes will be turning 32 this season.  He has been a solid lead-off hitter his entire career.  However, due to a myriad of injuries throughout his career, he has never emerged as one of the best in the game like everyone thought he would when he was a prospect for the Mets.  The Blue Jays, although they wouldn't complain, do not need Reyes to be the superstar.  They simply need him to be consistent and healthy.  In 2014, he played 143 games, hit .287, and stole 30 bases.  In 2013, he was limited to just 93 games.  He seems to miss significant time about every other year.  Toronto needs that trend to break.

Most Important Pitcher

Brett Cecil

If last year taught us anything, it taught us that a bullpen can make or break a team.  There is no way the Kansas City Royals make the World Series without the best bullpen in baseball.  This is partially why it was so surprising the Blue Jays make no moves to better their bullpen this offseason.  Last year's closer, Casey Janssen, has moved on, and wasn't that successful for them to begin with.  Instead of going out and finding a closer, the Blue Jays have decided to go with what they have, promoting Brett Cecil to the position.  For this season to be successful, they have to have consistency in the 9th inning.  Cecil is the guy that will start the year as the closer.  If he ends the year as the closer, the Blue Jays made the right move by not making a move.

Player to Watch

Daniel Norris

With the injury to Marcus Stroman, there is a hole in a rotation that wasn't elite to begin with.  That hole might be filled by top prospect Daniel Norris.  Known more right now for living in his van throughout the offseason, Norris is actually the Blue Jays top prospect and ranked #18 on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects in baseball.  Given the opportunity, he may prove this year why he is so highly thought of.

Prediction

1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

(Sorry, I couldn't go an article about the Blue Jays without mentioning Munenori Kawasaki.)

For being one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, the AL East might be leading the spring in question marks.  Will the Red Sox bounce back?  Can the Orioles repeat without replacing what they lost?  Do the aging Yankees have another run in them?  Can the Rays still be competitive without Joe Maddon?  The Blue Jays may have the fewest question marks entering the season.  They have no problem scoring runs, which is rare in today's game.  They have adequate pitching.  It is time for them to end their postseason drought.  They will not make it far (like I said, pitching wins in the playoffs), but they will revitalize a fan base that has been yearning for winner for over 20 years.