2021 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

 #17

The Cleveland Indians have been on quite a run over the last handful of years, however with the trade of Francisco Lindor, is that run coming to an end?  Will 2021 be the start of a rebuild or the continued success with another playoff birth?

2020 Predictions

#17 - 3rd in AL Central

MIH - Francisco Lindor

MIP - Carlos Carrasco

PTW - Logan Allen

2020 Results

#7 - 35-25, 2nd in AL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

I said the talk of 2020 was going to be if Francisco Lindor would be traded.  Somehow they were able to silence that drama for the season, trade away one of the their top starting pitchers in Mike Clevinger, and still put together a strong campaign that earned a playoff spot.  They didn't go far into the playoffs, but every time you think the Indians are done, they bounce back stronger.  The reason?  Terry Fancona.

Additions / Subtractions

Well, they were able to silence the noise for the season, but that didn't stop the move from being made this winter.  Lindor and Carlos Carrasco were both dealt to the New York Mets for quite a package.  Nothing beats having Lindor in the lineup though.  They continued to cut cost by releasing closer Brad Hand and not re-signing Carlos Santana at first base.  Coming into Cleveland are infielders Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez in the Lindor deal as well as free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario from Minnesota.  The other big announcement of the offseason would be that 2021 will be the last year the club will be known as the Cleveland Indians.  The new name has yet to be announced, but look for it to be a much more PC moniker.

Most Important Hitter

Jose Ramirez

Much like Francisco Lindor was the talk of last offseason and regular season on what Cleveland would do with him, this season could easily be the same chatter about Jose Ramirez.  Ramirez is entering the last year of a club-friendly deal he signed, and although his personality doesn't draw the eyeballs like Lindor, he production on the field might exceed the new Met.  Ramirez has finished in the top 3 of MVP voting three times in the last four seasons, including a 2nd place in 2020.  He also has three Silver Sluggers under his belt.  In 2020, he had a 163 OPS+.  With no Lindor in the lineup, the success of the Indians is even more tied to the production of Jose Ramirez.  The future success of the Indians might also be tied to him depending on if they can find the right trade package for him.

Most Important Pitcher

James Karinchak

Throughout this run the Indians have been on, even though Lindor and Ramirez have anchored a strong lineup, the strength of the team has been pitching.  This year is no different with guys like Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac anchoring the rotation.  The bullpen is not quite as secure this year with Brad Hand moving on.  Now, the Indians will be looking at 25 year old James Karinchak to anchor the back end of their pen.  Finishing 6th in Rookie of the Year voting in 2020 as a reliever, Karinchak dominated as a stellar setup man for the Tribe.  However, closing can be a different story, and with how volatile bullpen arms can be, his production needs to be as dominant and consistent as it was last season for the bullpen to be reliable.

Prospect to Watch

Tristan McKenzie

The big leagues got a taste of Tristan McKenzie in 2020, pitching 8 games and starting 6 with some decent success.  Now, this 51st best prospect in baseball and 2nd best in Cleveland's farm system will be counted on as a contributing member of the rotation from day one.  He is pretty unforgettable once you see him pitch, and not just for his electric stuff, but also for the 6'5" 165 pound frame and the big hair (which somehow makes him look even skinnier).  He should be a stud for them moving forward if he adds some weight to that frame so he can withstand the grueling nature of 162 games.

2021 Prediction

3rd in AL Central

I have the Indians predicted in the exact same spot as last year, however this year might be a little more earned.  Losing Lindor is going to affect their offense.  Rumors around losing Jose Ramirez could distract.  Also, the top of their division got better while they were selling pieces.  I know Terry Francona is one of the best managers in baseball, but I think they will finish lower than 2nd in the division for the first time since 2015.

Fearless Prediction

Shane Bieber will win a second straight Cy Young Award.

Somehow, the Indians just keep churning out elite starting pitching.  Last season, it was Shane Bieber's turn to see the spotlight.  He was easily the best player on the team in 2020, winning the pitching Triple Crown in the AL (Wins, ERA, Strikeouts).  He is just coming into his own, and I expect him to continue to grow and get better.  Look for another dominant year from him at the top of the Indians' rotation.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

#11

The Cleveland Indians have owned the AL Central over the last several years.  Will their young core of hitters and top-notch starters bring about another playoff run in 2019?

2018 Predictions

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

Corey Kluber will be the AL starting pitcher in the All Star Game.

2018 Results

91-71, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS

Yes, the Indians won 90 games, but they won the AL Central more by default being the only team to finish with a record above .500.  They have had a similar formula the last few seasons: pitch well behind Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco while scoring runs behind emerging superstars Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.  Ramirez and Lindor almost had 8 win seasons, while Kluber (who made the All Star Team but didn't start) has a 5.8 and Bauer had a 5.7 WAR.  All this success did not lead to any postseason success as they still carry such a long championship drought.

Additions / Subtractions

The Indians had one of the more intriguing offseasons in the league.  The front office looked at the roster they had put together and started to question how sustainable their payroll would be moving forward.  They traded away slugger Edwin Encarnacion to the Mariners to bring back former Indian Carlos Santana.  They traded away catcher Yan Gomes and slugger Yonder Alonso.  They traded corner infielder Yandy Diaz to the Rays for Jake Bauers, who has much more flexibility.  Their top outfielders from a year ago, Michael Brantley and Melky Cabrera, left through free agency and really weren't replaced.  Some late minor league acquisitions that will obviously have a big league impact eventually were Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Gonzalez, but they really tried to cut salary.  They even tried to do more, with constant rumors of Kluber or Bauer being traded, but that came to no avail.

Most Important Hitter

Bradley Zimmer

One of the reasons the Indians did not work harder to find some outfielders in they believe in Bradley Zimmer.  Entering his third season in the big leagues, this 26 year old centerfielder had established himself as the everyday starter last year before he injured his shoulder and ended his season.  He is not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but he is being counted on as being a key piece of what the Indians do this year.  They need him to break out to justify their lack of movement in replacing their outfield production from a year ago.

Most Important Pitcher

Brad Hand

The Indians have one of the best rotations in baseball, but they also have been touting an elite bullpen as well.  However, over the last several seasons they have watched pieces from their World SEries bullpen slowly leave.  Bryan Shaw left via free agency before last season, and this season saw the departure of closer Cody Allen and super reliever Andrew Miller.  None of the main pieces of their World Series super bullpen of 2016 are left.  This makes Brad Hand, their new closer, extremely important.  Hand was acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Padres for top propect Francisco Mejia, and he showed why they paid such a big price for him.  He is an elite bullpen arm, but now he will not have the company in the bullpen the Indians are used to surrounding their closer with.  Hand cannot have a bad season if the Indians want to be great this season.

Prospect to Watch

Yu Chang

The Indians only have two prospects listed in MLB's top 100, and one of them (Triston McKenzie) might make his debut this season depending on what happens with the Indians rotation throughout the season.  However, the player most likely to make a big league impact this season is Yu Chang.  This 23 year old infielder is the Indians 6th best prospect and played his entire 2018 season in AAA to decent success.  The reason he has a chance to make a big league impact this season is the fact that second baseman Jason Kipnis, shortstop Francisco Lindor, and third baseman Jose Ramirez all will probably start the season on the injured list (formerly the disabled list).  The Indians are finding ways to fill these holes temporarily with big league names, but if some of these injuries linger and some of the big leaguers struggle, Chang will get his opportunity to prove himself and show he can be a young utility infielder behind their cast of All Stars.

2019 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

Being ranked 11th on my list means I see the Indians as the last team to miss the playoffs.  They still have all their talent, but I get the feeling this window is closing quickly.  If the Indians are talking about trading some of their All Stars in their prime because they can't afford it, this success is fleeting.  Their division also shouldn't be the pushover it was last season too.  By pure talent, the Indians have to be in the conversation, but combine injuries with potential disgruntled aces and this could be the beginning of the end for this Indians run.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Francisco Lindor's last full season in Cleveland.

Lindor is entering his age 25 season and is already a 3 time All Star.  He is one of the best emerging young superstars in the game.  When he hits the free agent market after the 2021 season, he will be looking to get a contract similar to Machado, Harper, Arenado, or even Trout.  If this offseason showed anything, the Indians will not be able to afford that.  That means Lindor's time in Cleveland has an expiration date.  If he is not a long-term Indian, they might want to maximize his value on the trade market.  Especially if they miss the playoffs this season, the Indians might realize they need to move on from their current core sooner rather than later.

2018 MLB Pre-Season Profiles: #10-6

They may not win it all, but these teams will be able to claim that they made the playoffs in 2018.

#10

Los Angeles Angels

Most Important Hitter: Shohei Ohtani

Most Important Pticher: Shohei Ohtani

Prospect to Watch: Shohei Ohtani

2018 Prediction: 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose Wild Card Game

Bold Prediction: Shohei Ohtani will have 15+ wins and 15+ home runs.

I may be overstating it a little bit, especially considering this team also has the best player in the world in Mike Trout, but Shohei Ohtani is the most fascinating player in baseball this season.  If he does what he is projected to do (and continues the success he has shown in the start of the season), the combination of Trout and Ohtani might lift the Angels back to the postseason.  The main concern is their bullpen, but their lineup is as complete as it has been since Trout broke into the league.  They won't go far, but the playoffs are within reach.

#9

Milwaukee Brewers

Most Important Hitter: Eric Thames

Most Important Pticher: Chase Anderson

Prospect to Watch: Brandon Woodruff

2018 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Bold Prediction: The Brewers will trade for an ace by the All Star Break.

I don't know what was more surprising: the Brewers' 2017 season or the Brewers 2018 offseason.  The Brewers came up just short of the playoffs in 2017, greatly surpassing most expectations.  Then, they go out in the offseason and improve their club more than almost anyone else, adding Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to an already good outfield.  Many were surprised they also didn't land a frontline starter, which was the main area of concern entering the offseason.  That is why it would make sense if the Brewers use their depth in the outfield to go get a starter during the season.

#8

Boston Red Sox

Most Important Hitter: J.D. Martinez

Most Important Pticher: David Price

Prospect to Watch: Michael Chavis

2018 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

Bold Prediction: J.D. Martinez will be the only Red Sox hitter over 20 home runs.

The Red Sox got the power hitter they were missing last year when they picked up J.D. Martinez part way through Spring Training.  They will have a successful season, but won't get too far.  It will be interesting to watch what happens with Michael Chavis this year.  He is the top prospect for the Red Sox, but was just suspended for 80 games.  He is also blocked from coming up to the big leagues by young phenom Rafael Devers.  Even though the Red Sox do not have a strong farm system anymore, it looks like Chavis might be the perfect trading chip mid-season.

#7

Cleveland Indians

Most Important Hitter: Jose Ramirez

Most Important Pticher: Trevor Bauer

Prospect to Watch: Francisco Mejia

2018 Prediction: 1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

Bold Prediction: Corey Kluber will be the AL starting pitcher in the All Star Game.

The Indians have a loaded roster and should cruise through the AL Central.  Jose Ramirez will look to follow up an MVP-caliber 2017 season with another great year.  Trevor Bauer will be counted on to add depth to the rotation behind Kluber and Carlos Carrasco.  By Memorial Day, Francisco Mejia will be the Indians' starting catcher.  They might not get back to the World Series in 2018, but they will have a great season.

#6

Los Angeles Dodgers

Most Important Hitter: Cody Bellinger

Most Important Pticher: Kenta Maeda

Prospect to Watch: Walker Buehler

2018 Prediction: 1st in NL West, lose in NLDS

Bold Prediction: Clayton Kershaw will return in 2019 to the Dodgers.

The Dodgers still have an amazing roster and will be a serious contender to return to the World Series.  They will need another year from Cody Bellinger like he had in his rookie 2017 season.  Kenta Maeda, being the only right-hander in the Dodgers' rotation, needs to have a productive season.  Walker Buehler could help that rotation at some point as well.  The big story is whether Clayton Kershaw will opt out of his contract after the season and hit free agency.  Whether he opts out or not, he will be a Dodger in 2019.  How could he be anything else?

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

#6

The Cleveland Indians surprised everyone in 2016 by making a deep postseason run, coming so very close to ending their long championship drought.  Will 2017 provide a repeat performance?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in AL Central

Trevor Bauer will need Tommy John surgery by the end of the season.

2016 Results

94-67, 1st in AL Central, lost World Series

One of my worst predictions of all time was the 2016 Cleveland Indians.  The only consolation I have is I was not alone in doubting the potential of the Tribe.  The Indians rode solid starting pitching, timely hitting, and a dominant bullpen all the way to extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series before their run came to an end by the hand of the Chicago Cubs and a rain delay.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Trevor Bauer did not go down with Tommy John, however he did hurt his team in the playoffs when he had a run-in with a drone.  I'll call that prediction a push.

Additions / Subtractions

The Indians made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by bringing in veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion.  The biggest weakness of the Indians has been their offense, however Encarnacion will definitely improve that aspect as he replaces Mike Napoli as the DH.  Other than that, the Indians are bringing back a very similar roster to last season.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Brantley

Although the Indians didn't make any other big offseason moves, getting Michael Brantley back healthy is like making another big free agent signing.  Brantley was one of the best hitters in baseball for a three or four year stretch.  However, he only played 11 games in 2016 as injuries have really disrupted his career.  Now, he is trying to come back and resume what was becoming a superstar career.  The Indians made their run last season without their best hitter.  It is really remarkable.  If Brantley can come back and be dominant again, the combination of Brantley, Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Lindor will completely change the face of this offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Danny Salazar

I'll be honest with you ... I can't tell the difference between Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.  With Corey Kluber emerging as an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball, these two young arms have been slotted as the second and third starters on the staff.  Their 2016 numbers are almost identical even!  Carrasco started 25 games, and went 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 146.1 innings.  Salazar stared 25 games, and went 11-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 161 strikeouts over 137.1 innings.  By the way, both were also hurt for the playoff run and weren't in the rotation.  They are both quality starters that have the potential to be All Stars.  They both need to take a step forward in 2017 for this pitching staff to improve.  Why am I going with Salazar over Carrasco?  He is three years younger so he has more opportunity to grow.

Player to Watch

Bradley Zimmer

Tyler Naquin is a second year player patrolling centerfield.  Michael Brantley's health is a question mark heading into the season in leftfield.  Journeyman Abraham Almonte is on his third team before the age of 28 and starting in rightfield.  The outfield has some potential holes.  Enter the Indians' top prospect Bradley Zimmer.  This 24 year old prospect has all the makings of a future star in the big leagues.  If one of these question marks fall through during the 2017 season, look for Zimmer to emerge as a future mainstay in their outfield.

2017 Predictions

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

It is so hard to repeat the success of a surprise season like the Indians in 2016.  However, if the Kansas City Royals are any indicator on how to do it, it starts with a dominant bullpen.  That is one thing no one is questioning about the Indians in 2017.  They have too much talent and too good of a manger in Terry Francona to miss the playoffs.  I don't see the magic repeating itself from last year though.  They will be back there soon though.

Fearless Prediction

The Indians will trade for a starting catcher mid-season.

Yan Gomes has been the starting catcher for the Indians in recent years.  However, his 2016 season was terrible.  If he struggles again this year, the Indians will have no choice but to find someone else to be their backstop.  They have a catching prospect in Francisco Mejia that will be ready in the next year or two, but that won't help them this season.  Look for a move to be made for a veteran catcher and for the Indians to give up on Gomes.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians boasted one of the best starting rotations in 2015, but they were held back by an inferior offense.  Will 2016 bring some more pop to Cleveland?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 4th in AL Central

2015 Result: 81-80, 3rd in AL Central

The Indians finished about where I thought they would finish last season.  The difference was I predicted the rest of the division to be a little stronger than they ended up being.  A team managed by Terry Francona will always compete, and the 2015 Cleveland Indians were no exception.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

This was a very quiet offseason for the Indians.  Very few players left, with the most notable being the underwhelming Michael Bourn.  Added to the roster were some solid veterans like Mike Napoli and Juan Uribe.  Both are good moves, but not game changers.

Most Important Hitter

Francisco Lindor

The biggest revelation of 2015 was the emergence of Francisco Lindor.  Of the big name shortstops to make their debuts in 2015, Lindor was not the first name to pop into your head.  Names like Correa and Seager come to mind first.  However, Lindor had the best season with surprising power and consistency at the plate.  Now, the Indians are counting on him to be the offensive superstar that can anchor their lineup for years to come.  Was last year an anomaly or a sign of things to come?

Most Important Pitcher

Carlos Carrasco

Like I said, the starting rotation is the strength of the team.  Corey Kluber is obviously the ace, however Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar made quite the 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation.  Carrasco is the Indians' most important pitcher more because of the rumors than his on-field performance.  Carrasco is a very wanted commodity for any contender looking for a starting pitcher.  With the depth the Indians have in their rotation, it will be interesting if or when Carrasco gets traded for the bat that will round out their lineup and make them a legitimate contender.

Player to Watch

Tyler Naquin

Tyler Naquin is not the highest rated prospect in the Indians' system, however he is most likely to make an impact on the Indian's 2016 season.  With the 80 game suspension handed down to Abraham Almonte, Naquin has an opportunity to start in centerfield on Opening Day.  If he plays well, he could carve out a spot for himself moving forward.

2016 Prediction

4th in AL Central

A lot of people like the Indians to be major contenders in 2016.  I don't see it.  They still have major question marks in their offense, especially since Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall are starting the season on the DL.  With Almonte suspended, none of the original projected starting outfielders will start the season.  There is no way Lindor will repeat his lofty production from last season.  This team will compete for sure, but will most likely end up around .500 yet again.

Fearless Prediction

Trevor Bauer will need Tommy John surgery by the end of the season.

One of the better young pitchers the Indians have is Trevor Bauer.  He has been notorious for this unorthodox warmups and delivery, as well as his refusal to change much of what he does.  Recently, it was announced that he will start the season in the bullpen after a poor Spring.  He is walking a very dangerous path that seems destined for a major arm injury.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians had a good deal of success in 2014 even if it didn't lead them to the playoffs.  Will Terry Francona continue to lead the Tribe in these winning ways in 2015?

Last Season

85-77, 3rd in AL Central

The Indians were able to follow up their improbable run to the Wild Card in 2013 with another improbable winning season.  Although they were beaten out by Detroit and the eventual AL champ Royals in the Central, the season was a definite success.  Michael Brantley announced his presence as one of the top young hitters in the game, and Corey Kluber rode a ridiculous second half of the season to a Cy Young Award.  Even with down years from the likes of Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Jason Kipnis, the Tribe finished with a winning record and only a few games away from repeating a Wild Card run.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The primary subtractions heading into 2015 for the Indians took place at the Trade Deadline in 2014, when they dealt away Asdrubal Cabrera and Justin Masterson.  They really didn't lose anyone else from their roster besides clubhouse mentor Jason Giambi.  Coming to the Tribe in 2015 is Brandon Moss from Oakland, who will add lineup depth with his consistent bat in rightfield.

Most Important Hitter

Jason Kipnis

Jason Kipnis experienced a breakout year in 2013, making the All Star team and helping anchor a lineup that went to the playoffs.  In 2014, he came back down to earth, tallying career lows in batting average (.240) and home runs (6).  If the Indians want to find themselves back in the playoffs in 2014, Jason Kipnis needs to get back on track and return to his All Star form.  With young talent in the middle infield coming up through the farm system, look for Kipnis to be expendable if he doesn't produce.

Most Important Pitcher

Corey Kluber

In only his second full season in the big leagues, Corey Kluber came out of nowhere to become one of, if not the, most dominant pitcher in the American League.  He had career highs in wins (18), strikeouts (269), ERA (2.44), and had a 7.4 WAR as a starting pitcher.  No wonder he won the Cy Young as he almost single-handedly kept the Indians in the playoff hunt.  The question surrounding Kluber going into 2015 is can he repeat that performance.  His 34 starts last year bested his previous high by 10, and his 235.2 innings pitched was the first time he pitched over 150 innings in the big leagues.  Yes, his numbers were outrageous in 2014, but could an unprecedented work load on his arm lead his performance to be an anomaly?  Considering how quickly his inning count spiked and how his numbers spiked (his ERA dropped by almost a run and a half from 2013 to 2014), it wouldn't be unfathomable to think that Kluber will have a down year in 2015.  The problem is the Indians need him to be the dominant Cy Young winning anchor of their staff to have another shot at the playoffs.  I see a stint on the DL more likely than a repeat of that level of dominance.

Player to Watch

Francisco Lindor

Some people wondered why the Indians were so willing to part ways with their longtime shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera in 2014.  Those that knew the Indians organization knew exactly why they traded him, and his name is Francisco Lindor.  Ranked as the #1 prospect in the Indians farm system and #4 on MLB.com's Top 100, this 21 year old shortstop is a future superstar that the Tribe had to clear a path for.  Although he will not start this season on the major league roster, watch for him to burst on the scene at some point this year.  The timing is going to depend on the success of the current big league middle infielders (Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez).

Prediction

4th in AL Central

I always seem to underestimate the Indians.  Every year, they over-perform and surprise the league.  This is a huge testament to their manager, Terry Francona.  However, there are just too many question marks heading into 2015 to see them repeating the success of the last few years.  Can Corey Kluber duplicate his Cy Young season?  Can Michael Brantley pick up where he left off last season?  Can Michael Bourn return to being the lead-off hitter he is being paid to be?  Can Jason Kipnis return to his All Star form?  Does Nick Swisher have one more solid season in him?  Can a no-name bullpen finish games?  For them to make a playoff run, all of those questions have to be answered with a resounding yes, which is unlikely.  In a division that keeps getting more and more competitive every season, I see the Indians taking a step back in 2015.  With that said, knowing that it's Terry Francona's team, don't be surprised if I am wrong.