2024 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

 #27

The Chicago White Sox entered 2023 with one of the most talented rosters in baseball, then they lost 100 games.  Could they have a better record in 2024 after trading away much of their roster?

2023 Predictions

#8 - 1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

MIH - Luis Robert Jr.

MIP - Lucas Giolito

PTW - Oscar Colas

FP - Andrew Vaughn has a better season in 2023 than Jose Abreu.

2023 Results

#27 - 61-101, 4th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Luis Robert Jr.

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Mike Clevinger

There was a version of the 2023 season where the Chicago White Sox won the division.  It honestly seemed more likely that happened than they lose 100 games.  Yet here we are.  Direct quote from last year's article, "I have been really high on this team for three years in a row now...  If the White Sox fail me again, I'm out."  Well, it looks like the White Sox gave up too, starting to unload talent mid-season.  I will say, one of my favorite fearless predictions last year did pay off.  Neither had great seasons, but Andrew Vaughn finished with a 101 OPS+, .743 OPS, 21 homers, 80 RBI's, and a 0.9 WAR.  Former White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu had an 87 OPS+, .680 OPS, 18 homers, 90 RBI's, and a 0.0 WAR.  Advantage (barely) goes to Vaughn.  I guess the White Sox made one right decision entering 2023.

Additions / Subtractions

The White Sox were quite active this off-season.  Gone are Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Tim Anderson, Seby Zavala, Mike Clevinger, Kendall Graveman, Gregory Santos, Aaron Bummer ... and that's not even including the mid-season trades last year of Jake Burger, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Reynaldo Lopez.  The addition list is nowhere near as impressive.  Entering the fold for 2024 are starters Michael Soroka, Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, catcher Martin Maldonado, and infielders Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong.

Most Important Hitter

Eloy Jimenez

No one on the White Sox roster better encapsulates this latest White Sox run than Eloy Jimenez.  Ever since he was acquired from the cross-town rival Cubs in 2017 in the Jose Quintana trade, Jimenez has been one of the most talented players on the White Sox roster.  However, injuries have kept Eloy from reaching his full potential, topping out at 122 games over the last 5 seasons, and that was his rookie year when he hit 31 homers.  Since then, his only other season over 100 games had him reaching 120 games and 18 homers.  The good news is that was last season.  This is the last year before Eloy hits free agency, and the hope of a healthy Jimenez leaves him as one of the most intriguing trade chips at the Trade Deadline.  As the White Sox are resetting the whole roster, a strong start from the slugger would bring back a maximum return in a trade.

Most Important Pitcher

Dylan Cease

Through all the turnover on the White Sox roster this off-season, possibly the biggest story was the move they didn't make.  Dylan Cease is still on the White Sox roster.  The Cy Young runner up in 2022 was nowhere near as effective in 2023, but with two years left before free agency, Cease remains a very hot commodity on the trade market.  Probably the only reason he wasn't traded was the very high asking price.  Now, just like Eloy Jimenez, the best thing Cease can do for the White Sox is start the year off as his 2022 self to bring back the king's ransom the White Sox want for their ace at the Trade Deadline or even next off-season.

Prospect to Watch

Colson Montgomery

The White Sox farm system is starting this rebuild in a not great spot, ranking 20th overall by MLB Pipeline with only 2 players in the Top 100 prospects.  However, one of those prospects is the 9th best prospect in baseball.  Colson Montgomery is a 22 year old shortstop that the White Sox took in the 1st round in 2021.  Drawing comparisons to Corey Seager as a tall, athletic, lefty hitting shortstop, his development and eventual debut in 2024 might be why face of the franchise Tim Anderson is no longer on the roster.  After the All Star Break, look for Montgomery to be called up simply so that the White Sox have something to cheer for.  They really need a win after last year's prospect to watch, Oscar Colas, flamed out spectacularly in 2023 and is barely considered a part of their long term plans anymore.

2024 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The White Sox might be the only team right now entering full rebuild mode.  With that said, thanks to their division, they are not guaranteed the cellar this season.  They also aren't done with their roster reset either.  It was bad last year when they were trying to be good.  It might be better this year as they start to try and be bad.  They do have further to go before they fully bottom out and build back up though.

Fearless Predictions

Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease will not be traded due to injuries.

Knowing the luck of the White Sox over the last handful of seasons, it would only make sense if their two best trade chips during a rebuild have injury-riddled seasons making them near untradable.  So of course that's what is going to happen.  It would be the perfect ending to one of the worst potential championship runs in recent memory.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

 #8

The Chicago White Sox underwhelmed in 2022 and missed the playoffs.  Will a new manager change the fate of the franchise before their championship window closes?

2022 Predictions

#3 - 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

MIH - Luis Robert

MIP - Michael Kopech

PTW - Yoelqui Cespedes

2022 Results

#16 - 81-81, 2nd in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Jose Abreu

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Dylan Cease

Almost everything about 2022 for the Chicago White Sox was a disappointment.  Many of their established stars either fought injuries or struggles throughout the year.  However, the biggest disappointment seemed to come from their Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa.  Some questionable decisions and erratic behavior had everyone questioning if he was still able to do the job.  He ended up stepping away from the team for the last month for health concerns.  No matter how the season went, watching Tony LaRussa became the distraction that dominated most of the story around this team in 2022.  I said most of the story.  The one positive to come out of 2022 was the emergence of Dylan Cease.  If it wasn't for an other-worldly season from the ageless Justin Verlander, Cease would have won the Cy Young with his insane 180 ERA+.

Additions / Subtractions

The White Sox have a pretty established core.  This offseason was all about complementing it.  That job started with the hiring of new manager Pedro Grifol.  Then, starter Mike Clevinger was brought in to round out the rotation after the departure of Johnny Cueto.  Andrew Benintendi was signed to fill in the leftfield hole left by A.J. Pollock.  Former MVP Jose Abreu left in free agency and was replaced internally.  Possibly the most unexpected change in the roster was closer Liam Hendriks being diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin lymphoma.  No timetable on recovery or return has been given yet, but it sounds like the best case scenario is a return in June.

Most Important Hitter

Luis Robert Jr.

So much of what the White Sox do offensively revolves around Luis Robert Jr.  The team clicks and wins when he is on the field.  That's the problem though.  In 2021, he was held to 68 games.  In 2022, he played in 98 games.  Robert is starting to feel a little like Byron Buxton in that he is one of the most dynamic players in the game as long as he can stay on the field.  Especially with losing the consistency provided by Jose Abreu, the White Sox need Robert to be on the field as much as possible.  With him only entering his age 25 season, the hope is the health will come.

Most Important Pitcher

Lucas Giolito

If you were to ask anyone after the 2021 season who was the best starting pitcher for the White Sox, the answer would probably be Lucas Giolito.  He had gone from being one of baseball's top prospects to complete bust to All Star.  Well, 2022 saw another mood swing in the colorful career of Giolito.  He was the White Sox worst starter in 2022 with a 4.90 ERA and an 81 ERA+.  With the emergence of Dylan Cease, the consistency of Lance Lynn, and the dynamic talent of Michael Kopech, the starting rotation has the potential to be elite.  With that said, to be elite, Giolito has to be better.  He made some mechanics changes over the offseason.  Hopefully it produces results.

Prospect to Watch

Oscar Colas

The White Sox had a huge wave of talent that hit the big leagues a few years ago.  This left a depleted farm system that hasn't recovered yet.  Currently, the White Sox have 2 prospects in the Top 100 with the most intriguing for 2023 being outfielder Oscar Colas.  This 24 year old Cuban import was signed by the White Sox in January 2022, and in one season in the organization, he moved from High-A to Triple-A while hitting .314 and 23 home runs.  Watch for Colas to get a chance to play rightfield or even centerfield if Luis Robert Jr. struggles with injuries again.

2023 Prediction

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

This might be an odd pick, especially after the success of the Guardians last season and the dumpster fire the White Sox were at times last season.  However, through all the chaos in 2022, the White Sox were a .500 team.  If they can get some stability and some health, it is very realistic for the White Sox to return to the postseason.  It might be a stretch to say they could compete for a championship in 2023, but there is a version of this season that could end that way.  At the same time, I have been really high on this team for three years in a row now.  I had them in the World Series in 2021 and the ALCS in 2022.  If the White Sox fail me again, I'm out.

Fearless Prediction

Andrew Vaughn has a better season in 2023 than Jose Abreu.

Andrew Vaughn was the 3rd overall pick in the 2019 Draft, and the White Sox have been waiting for him to become a star.  Last season, Vaughn took a big enough step forward that they felt good enough to let Jose Abreu leave in free agency and hand over first base to the kid.  Andrew Vaughn has this potential in him, and the White Sox are hoping he breaks out.  Between Vaughn's potential and Abreu's age, I see this hot take having a good chance to hit.