2024 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

 #27

The Chicago White Sox entered 2023 with one of the most talented rosters in baseball, then they lost 100 games.  Could they have a better record in 2024 after trading away much of their roster?

2023 Predictions

#8 - 1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

MIH - Luis Robert Jr.

MIP - Lucas Giolito

PTW - Oscar Colas

FP - Andrew Vaughn has a better season in 2023 than Jose Abreu.

2023 Results

#27 - 61-101, 4th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Luis Robert Jr.

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Mike Clevinger

There was a version of the 2023 season where the Chicago White Sox won the division.  It honestly seemed more likely that happened than they lose 100 games.  Yet here we are.  Direct quote from last year's article, "I have been really high on this team for three years in a row now...  If the White Sox fail me again, I'm out."  Well, it looks like the White Sox gave up too, starting to unload talent mid-season.  I will say, one of my favorite fearless predictions last year did pay off.  Neither had great seasons, but Andrew Vaughn finished with a 101 OPS+, .743 OPS, 21 homers, 80 RBI's, and a 0.9 WAR.  Former White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu had an 87 OPS+, .680 OPS, 18 homers, 90 RBI's, and a 0.0 WAR.  Advantage (barely) goes to Vaughn.  I guess the White Sox made one right decision entering 2023.

Additions / Subtractions

The White Sox were quite active this off-season.  Gone are Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Tim Anderson, Seby Zavala, Mike Clevinger, Kendall Graveman, Gregory Santos, Aaron Bummer ... and that's not even including the mid-season trades last year of Jake Burger, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Reynaldo Lopez.  The addition list is nowhere near as impressive.  Entering the fold for 2024 are starters Michael Soroka, Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, catcher Martin Maldonado, and infielders Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong.

Most Important Hitter

Eloy Jimenez

No one on the White Sox roster better encapsulates this latest White Sox run than Eloy Jimenez.  Ever since he was acquired from the cross-town rival Cubs in 2017 in the Jose Quintana trade, Jimenez has been one of the most talented players on the White Sox roster.  However, injuries have kept Eloy from reaching his full potential, topping out at 122 games over the last 5 seasons, and that was his rookie year when he hit 31 homers.  Since then, his only other season over 100 games had him reaching 120 games and 18 homers.  The good news is that was last season.  This is the last year before Eloy hits free agency, and the hope of a healthy Jimenez leaves him as one of the most intriguing trade chips at the Trade Deadline.  As the White Sox are resetting the whole roster, a strong start from the slugger would bring back a maximum return in a trade.

Most Important Pitcher

Dylan Cease

Through all the turnover on the White Sox roster this off-season, possibly the biggest story was the move they didn't make.  Dylan Cease is still on the White Sox roster.  The Cy Young runner up in 2022 was nowhere near as effective in 2023, but with two years left before free agency, Cease remains a very hot commodity on the trade market.  Probably the only reason he wasn't traded was the very high asking price.  Now, just like Eloy Jimenez, the best thing Cease can do for the White Sox is start the year off as his 2022 self to bring back the king's ransom the White Sox want for their ace at the Trade Deadline or even next off-season.

Prospect to Watch

Colson Montgomery

The White Sox farm system is starting this rebuild in a not great spot, ranking 20th overall by MLB Pipeline with only 2 players in the Top 100 prospects.  However, one of those prospects is the 9th best prospect in baseball.  Colson Montgomery is a 22 year old shortstop that the White Sox took in the 1st round in 2021.  Drawing comparisons to Corey Seager as a tall, athletic, lefty hitting shortstop, his development and eventual debut in 2024 might be why face of the franchise Tim Anderson is no longer on the roster.  After the All Star Break, look for Montgomery to be called up simply so that the White Sox have something to cheer for.  They really need a win after last year's prospect to watch, Oscar Colas, flamed out spectacularly in 2023 and is barely considered a part of their long term plans anymore.

2024 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The White Sox might be the only team right now entering full rebuild mode.  With that said, thanks to their division, they are not guaranteed the cellar this season.  They also aren't done with their roster reset either.  It was bad last year when they were trying to be good.  It might be better this year as they start to try and be bad.  They do have further to go before they fully bottom out and build back up though.

Fearless Predictions

Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease will not be traded due to injuries.

Knowing the luck of the White Sox over the last handful of seasons, it would only make sense if their two best trade chips during a rebuild have injury-riddled seasons making them near untradable.  So of course that's what is going to happen.  It would be the perfect ending to one of the worst potential championship runs in recent memory.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

 #2

The Chicago White Sox have some of the most exciting young talent in the league.  Can a strong offseason turn a playoff appearance last season into a deep postseason run in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#15 - 2nd in AL Central

MIH - Eloy Jimenez

MIP - Lucas Giolito

PTW - Luis Robert

2020 Results

#8 - 35-25, 2nd in AL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

The Chicago White Sox continued to grow in 2020 as their young roster cracked the postseason.  The season was highlighted by the play of first baseman Jose Abreu who won the AL MVP.  They may not have advanced past the first round, it was an encouraging step in the right direction for this team that is starting to see the fruits of a rebuild that started a few years ago with the trade of Chris Sale.

Additions / Subtractions

The White Sox had one of the most active and fascinating offseasons leading into 2021.  They updraded their rotation by trading for Lance Lynn from Texas.  They upgraded their bullpen by signing one of the best closers in the league in Liam Hendriks.  They added some veteran leadership to their lineup by signing former White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton.  Then came one of the most talked about moves of the winter in the hiring of 76 year old Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa after a decade of retirement.

Most Important Hitter

Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada broke out in 2019 with a stellar season, hitting .315 with 25 homers and finishing with a career high 139 OPS+.  He followed that up in 2020 with a rough season, only hitting .225 and a 93 OPS+.  Especially with the injury to budding star Eloy Jimenez who will most of the season, Moncada needs a bounce back season to add depth to this lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel

Back in 2015, Dallas Keuchel won a Cy Young for the Astros.  After that season, he had varying success from 2016-2019 before signing with the White Sox leading into 2020.  Last season, Keuchel was outstanding and made a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Lucas Giolito.  Now he needs to repeat that success of last season.  If he does, this rotation could be really good with Giolito at the top, Lance Lynn and Keuchel as the veteran 2-3, and the young phenoms filling up the back half.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Madrigal

The White Sox have 4 prospects in baseball's Top 100 Prospects, all of which will have opportunities to make a big impact on the big league roster.  #13 prospect Matthew Vaughn will get at bats to start the season to try and fill the hole left by Eloy Jimenez, while #18 Michael Kopech and #89 Garrett Crochet have already seen the big leagues and will look to help either in the rotation or bullpen as they are two of the hardest throwers around.  The player that will have the most opportunities to have a big year is second baseman Nick Madrigal.  The 36th best prospect in baseball, Madrigal may be small at 5'8" but he knows how to hit.  He got in 29 games last season and hit .340 in that time.  He will start Opening Day at second and looks to be a fixture at the top of their lineup for years to come.

2021 Prediction

1st in AL Central, lose in World Series

This is my team to make the big leap in 2021.  They seem to have a perfect roster to compete deep into the postseason with a great mix of veterans and budding stars both in their lineup and rotation.  The injury to Eloy Jimenez does hurt, but their lineup should be deep enough to absorb that loss.  I also love the addition of Tony La Russa who knows how to win.  Over the last decade, he has been working in front offices around the league so he hasn't just been sitting at home.  He knows the game better than almost anyone, and he will lead this team to new heights.

Fearless Prediction

Tony La Russa wins AL Manager of the Year.

If the White Sox are as good as I think they could be in 2021, this is an obvious win for Tony La Russa.  What a way to make a comeback for the Hall of Famer!

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

#22

Several years ago, the White Sox started a massive rebuild, bringing in loads of top prospects.  As a handful of these prospects are now in the big leagues, will the White Sox take a step towards contending in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL Central

Michael Kopech will be in the top three for the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year.

2018 Results

62-100, 4th in AL Central

I thought 2018 would be the year the White Sox would start to turn a corner.  However, they had a 100 loss season instead.  Many of their top prospects that are now in the big leagues have yet to produce the numbers their talent projected.  As for Michael Kopech, the hard-throwing right hander went down with Tommy John soon after he made his debut and won't be available again until 2020.  For a team that has a lot of potential, 2018 was a disappointment.

Additions / Subtractions

Many of the White Sox offseason moves were minor, however their offseason, like several others, was defined by the move they were not able to make.  They brought in veteran Ivan Nova to eat some innings in the rotation.  They also traded catcher Omar Narvaez to the Mariners for closer Alex Colome.  Filling in some depth are veterans John Jay, Yonder Alonso, Welington Castillo, and James McCann.  However, they wanted Manny Machado.  Many speculated the Jay and Alonso moves were only made because they were Manny's best friends.  When he chose to sign in San Diego instead, this offseason was looked at as a disappointment.

Most Important Hitter

Yoan Moncada

This is the same answer I gave to this question last year.  I try to mix it up with different people each season, but no one else stands out.  Yoan Moncada was the centerpiece of the Chris Sale trade to the Red Sox a few seasons ago.  Touted as one of the best prospects in baseball, Moncada has yet to produce on his promise in the big leagues, having a career 97 OPS+ (below league average) and leading the league in strikeouts last season.  The good news is he is only entering his age 24 season.  He has been learning on the job for the past few seasons.  However, if the White Sox are going to turn the necessary corner to make this rebuild a success, Moncada needs to become the All Star everyone thought he would be.

Most Important Pitcher

Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito is in a very similar position as Moncada.  He was my pick for this spot last year.  He was the centerpiece of one of their blockbuster deals a few years ago, in this case it was the Adam Eaton deal with the Nationals.  He was once a top prospect in baseball.  He has also underwhelmed since joining the White Sox.  In Giolito's case, this underwhelming has been significant.  Last season, he posted a 6.13 ERA and a 68 ERA+ (league average is 100).  He led the league in earned runs and walks while posting a -1.3 WAR.  Reynaldo Lopez, the lesser prospect in the Eaton trade, has massively outperformed Giolito in every way to this point.  With all that said, like Moncada, Giolito is only entering his age 24 season.  He has plenty of time to get better and develop.  However, the clock is ticking a little more on Giolito with the amount of top end pitching developing in the White Sox system.  Giolito needs to start producing, not only to help the White Sox succeed, but to keep a spot in the major leagues.

Prospect to Watch

Eloy Jimenez

Everyone has heard of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  Many have heard of Fernando Tatis Jr.  However, the consensus third best prospect in baseball has flown under the radar, possibly because he doesn't have the famous fathers of the top two.  He has the potential to be every bit as impactful though.  Eloy Jimenez was a centerpiece of another blockbuster trade a few years back, this time it was the Jose Quintana deal with the Cubs.  This 6'4" rightfielder was always thought to be a top prospect, but then he went off in 2018, hitting .337 with 22 home runs and 75 RBI's between AA and AAA, while garnering comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton.  This 22 year old has proven he is ready to make an immediate impact this season.  Look for the service time to be manipulated as he starts the season in AAA and then make his debut in mid-April.  Once he is called up, watch out!

2019 Prediction

3rd in AL Central

The White Sox have to turn a corner this season.  With as horrible as the bottom of this division is, they need to prove this whole rebuild is working in the right direction.  A .500 record would be a huge success.  This 3rd place finish would be a step in the right direction.  Especially if Eloy Jimenez has a breakout season, this looks realistic.  Another 100 loss season might lead to manager Rick Renteria, as well as the entire front office, getting fired.

Fearless Prediction

Eloy Jimenez will win the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year

All eyes are on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to walk away with this title.  However, this has the potential to be a lot of pressure on young Vlad, and starting the year injured might hold him back.  Like I said, Jimenez might be under the radar now, but that will change as soon as he debuts.  There is a good chance Eloy outshines Vlad Jr. this year and takes this title away from him.