2019 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

#26

The Texas Rangers hit the reset button over the offseason this year.  Will the new faces in Arlington bring about more success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

4th in AL West

Cole Hamels will be traded before the end of the season.

2018 Results

67-95, 5th in AL West

The Rangers did not have as strong of a season as I expected them to have.  They struggled in many ways, including being in an extremely strong division in 2018.  Cole Hamels did indeed get moved to the Cubs at the Trade Deadline, making that a wasted deal for the Rangers.  However, the 2018 season in Texas will be remembered as the farewell tour for Adrian Beltre, who retired once the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

There wasn't much turnover in the Rangers' lineup going into 2019.  Veteran Asdrubal Cabrera replaces Beltre at third base, and Jeff Mathis goes behind the plate to replace Robinson Chirinos.  The pitching staff had much more change, with Mike Minor being the only returning starter.  Gone are Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, Doug Fister, and Matt Moore.  In their place, the Rangers have Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez, and Shelby Miller.  The bullpen had some big turnover as well, with Keone Kela, Alex Claudio, and Jake Diekman moving on.  With all these changes, possibly the biggest change is Chris Woodward taking over as manager from Jeff Banister.

Most Important Hitter

Elvis Andrus

It wasn't that long ago that the Rangers were playing in the World Series.  However, the only player remaining from those great Ranger years is shortstop Elvis Andrus.  He has already been in the league for 10 years even though he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has become the grizzled veteran of the team and continues to be a cornerstone of what the Rangers want to do.  However, Andrus had a bad 2018, posting only a 1.7 WAR and the lowest OPS+ since 2010.  Andrus is only halfway through an 8 year contract, which means he will be paid by the Rangers through 2023.  If he is going to earn the second half of this contract, he has to play a lot better than he did last season.  If he is going to be the veteran leader the Rangers need him to be, he has to be a leader with his play.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Leclerc

Relievers can be so up and down from season to season.  However, the Rangers are hoping Jose Leclerc's 2018 season gets repeated over and over again.  Leclerc had one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in 2018, posting a 1.56 ERA in 59 games, averaging 13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings.  As a setup man, Leclerc posted the fourth best WAR on the Rangers' roster in 2018, and was named one of the ten best relievers right now on MLB Network's yearly countdown.  With so many bullpen arms moving on this offseason, Leclerc is now the closer and will now have much more expected of him.  If he can continue his dominance from last year, he will be the anchor this bullpen will need to be effective in 2019.

Prospect to Watch

Jonathan Hernandez

The Rangers have a pretty good farm system, but most of their top prospects are at least a year or two away.  Their highest prospect that has a chance to impact the big league club this year is starting pitcher Jonathan Hernandez.  The Rangers' 5th ranked prospect, Hernandez is a 22 year old righty with a strong fastball and a good slider.  He struggles a little with command, but if he puts it all together, there is a good chance he starts games for the Rangers before the end of the season, especially considering how old the starting rotation is slated to be to start the season.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL West

The Rangers are headed in the right direction.  They are riding a line few teams attempt anymore.  They are rebuilding and waiting for their farm system to pay off while also featuring enough veterans and big league talent to be interesting this year.  They will end up in the cellar again simply because of the strength of this division.  The AL West has become one of the strongest in baseball, which will lead to rookie manager Chris Woodward having a bit of a struggle in his first season.

Fearless Prediction

No pitcher for the Rangers will throw over 150 innings in 2019.

New manager Chris Woodward is a sabermetric guy, coming over from the Dodgers.  One of the goals of managers like this is to limit the innings of starters and lean on the bullpen.  Now let's combine that with the makeup of the Rangers' rotation.  Mike Minor threw 157 innings in 2018, which was his most since injuring his arm several season ago.  Lance Lynn is coming off a very disappointing season split between the Twins and the Yankees.  Drew Smyly is coming off Tommy John.  Edinson Volquez is a prime candidate to be traded to a contender mid-season if he pitches well.  If he doesn't, he will probably be released.  Shelby Miller has never quite found his form that made him the centerpiece of a trade that brought the Braves former number one overall pick Dansby Swanson.  This is an aging rotation this is bound to break down as the season progresses.  None of these starters can be counted on entering the season.  This might change throughout the season, but there is no way any of these guys rack up even a modest amount of innings.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

#21

When the Miami Marlins finished their 2016 season, no one cared what their record was because of an unthinkable tragedy.  Will the Marlins be able to recover and have a successful 2017 season?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in NL East

Giancarlo Stanton will play a full season and hit 55+ home runs.

2016 Results

79-82, 3rd in NL East

Looking at the numbers, the Miami Marlins had a successful season as they once again took a step forward as one of the fun young teams to watch.  However, none of that mattered after the morning of September 25, when ace Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident.  This led to that night's game being cancelled (hence only the 161 games played) and one of the most tragic weeks in baseball history as the Marlins struggled to finish the season while missing their emotional leader.  What was an encouraging sign of a bright future for the franchise, 2016 turned into a season that left them lost and wondering where to turn.  As for my Fearless Prediction, once again injuries kept Stanton from playing a full season.  We are still waiting to see what heights he can reach if he could stay on the field fr a full season.

Additions / Subtractions

Jose Fernandez's untimely death left a huge hole in this team that was going to be hard to fill.  On a positive note, the Marlins' roster is mostly unchanged moving into 2017.  They did sign a couple pitchers to try and fill Fernandez's shoes.  Edinson Volquez, following some successful seasons with the Royals, is now considered the ace of the Marlins with fellow newcomer Dan Straily sliding into the #2 spot.

Most Important Hitter

Giancarlo Stanton

Like I have already stated, a full season of a healthy Giancarlo Stanton would be a sight to see.  Unfortunately, this has yet to happen in his young career.  Stanton is the heart of this order and the player that makes it work.  When he isn't in the lineup, the Marlins have few places to turn for power despite a strong lineup.  If they are to be successful in 2017, they need a full season from Stanton.

Most Important Pitcher

Adam Conley

Adam Conley had flashes of brilliance in 2016.  The problem was they were only flashes.  This is fine for a pitcher entering only his second full season in the big leagues, but with Jose Fernandez gone, the Marlins' pitching staff is now looking quite old.  Conley, at 27, is the youngest pitcher in their projected starting five and really the only one that hasn't already hit his ceiling.  Conley showed flashes of being a star in 2016.  They need him to be a star in 2017.

Player to Watch

Brian Anderson

The Marlins continue to sport one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball, only having one player in the Top 100 Prospects (who won't be major league ready for another couple seasons).  This leaves little chance at getting any rookies this season that could have a noticeable impact on the team.  One that might have a chance is infielder Brian Anderson.  If injuries derail the seasons of any of the Marlins' starting infielders, look for Anderson to get a chance to prove himself with the big club.

2017 Prediction

4th in NL East

I love the Marlins' lineup.  From Stanton to Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, JT Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna, the Marlins have an incredible young core of hitters.  The problem is their pitching.  Jose Fernandez's death might be one of the most tragic events in recent baseball history.  Not only was he only 24 years old with his entire life, let alone his baseball career, in front of him, but he was one of two or three pillars on which the Marlins were building this franchise.  With his tragic passing, they lost all momentum that may have been built in 2016.  It also left their starting rotation looking like one of the worst in the league.  They need more than Volquez and Straily to stabilize and solidify this pitching staff.  Unless they fix their pitching soon, they might waste the great window they have with their young lineup.

Fearless Prediction

The Marlins will trade for Jose Quintana mid-season.

Like I said, the Marlins need to do something big to fix their rotation.  Jose Quintana is the biggest arm available on the trading market.  The Marlins don't have a farm system to put together a monster package of prospects like other teams have done, but I think they can figure something out to make something like this happen.  Quintana would be a great fit for any team, but considering the Latin presence in Miami, Quintana might be able to appeal to the community at large in a way Jose Fernandez was able to.