2023 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

 #3

The New York Mets continue to try and buy their way to championship.  Will winning the offseason result in winning in the postseason in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#4 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

MIH - Francisco Lindor

MIP - Max Scherzer

PTW - Brett Baty

2022 Results

#9 - 101-61, 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Series

Highest WAR (Position) - Jeff McNiel

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Max Scherzer

This is how good the National League has been recently.  The New York Mets won 101 games in 2022.  Yeah, that was good for 2nd in the division.  They lost in the Wild Card Series to the Padres, who you can argue were the more talented (and maybe higher spending) team.  Then, the eventual NL champ was the 3rd place team from their own division.  With the type of overhaul the Mets had before the 2022 season, it sometimes takes a year or two for the team to come together and play well as a unit.  With that said, they still won 101 games.

Additions / Subtractions

Well, with new Mets owner Steve Cohen, since the Mets didn't win the World Series, it meant he didn't spend enough money.  So he opened up the pocket books again.  First, the Mets kept some of their own that were entering free agency by re-signing closer Edwin Diaz and outfielder Brandon Nimmo to huge deals.  Then, they signed a second 40 year old pitcher to a contract paying $40 million per year.  Last year it was Max Scherzer.  This year it was Justin Verlander.  They signed veteran Jose Quintana and Japanese import Kodai Senga to bolster the rotation even more.  Reliever and former closer David Robertson was signed to deepen the bullpen (and possibly close now that Diaz is out for the year).  Catcher Omar Narvaez was signed to be an offensive-minded catcher.  They also found themselves in the middle of the Carlos Correa saga as they jumped in and agreed to a deal with the superstar shortstop after the Giants questioned his medicals.  Then when the Mets questioned his medicals, both sides backed out of the deal, and he ended up back in Minnesota.  The only real significant subtractions were starters Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, but they were more than adequately replaced.

Most Important Hitter

Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo had a career year in 2022, which just happened to be his contract year.  He cashed in to stay with the Mets, signing an 8 year $162 million deal.  However, it was only the second time in Nimmo's seven year career he has played in more than 100 games.  The production has always been decent when he is on the field.  The problem is he has to be on the field.  Was 2022 starting a new trend of health, or an anomaly in a career riddled with injuries?  The Mets have a potent middle of the order with the likes of Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, but they are counting on Nimmo to be on base for them to drive in.

Most Important Pitcher

Kodai Senga

The Mets have a lot of money invested in their starting rotation.  The amount of money they are paying the comination of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander more than 9 teams' entire rosters.  However, most of the money invested in the rotation was spent on established older pitchers.  The one step they took to solidify part of their rotation passed this year and next was signing Kodai Senga.  The 30 year old Japanese star signed a 5 year $75 million deal with the Mets.  These Japanese players are definitely hit or miss.  Senga has some serious talent.  The question is ... will he be the next Masahiro Tanaka or the next Yusei Kikuchi?  If he is closer to Tanaka, then the Mets have an ace that will be around long after Scherzer and Verlander retire.

Prospect to Watch

Francisco Alvarez

On top of spending all this money, the Mets also boast a top ten caliber farm system, highlighted by one of the best prospects in all of baseball, 21 year old catcher Francisco Alvarez.  The reason the Mets signed a short term stop gap at catcher this offseason was to leave room for Alvarez to break out.  This kid showed all through the minors some elite pure power, slugging 24 homers in 2021 and 27 homers in 2022.  He got a taste of the big leagues at the end of last season, and although he is starting 2023 back in the minors, he will be brought up soon to be another centerpiece of the heart of the Mets batting order.

2023 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

Somehow, a 101 win team looks on paper to have greatly improved this offseason.  They should win the division, but the Braves and Phillies will definitely make it difficult on them.  Can they go all the way?  Absolutely.  I struggle to see a team with this much turnover again coming together in a way to go all the way.  There's a reason whenever the moniker of "best team money can buy" rarely produces a championship.

Fearless Prediction

A closer named Diaz will lead the Mets in saves in 2023.

It was heartbreaking to see such a moment of joy turn so fast in one fatal misstep as Edwin Diaz tore up his knee in the middle of a joyous celebration with his WBC teammates.  It left the Puerto Rico team dejected and the Mets without a closer for the season.  The Mets have announced they will use a closer by committee to start the season, but you know Steve Cohen won't be content with that.  A trade will be made for a closer, and one of the most likely candidates is Edwin's brother Alexis Diaz.  Currently the closer for the Reds, the younger Diaz was shedding tears on the field watching Edwin be carried off the field.  Wouldn't it be poetic if the Mets used some of their farm system depth to bring him in to fill in for his brother?  The Reds are always willing right now to get rid of established stars for prospect potential.  This seems like too good of a story for the Mets to pass up.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

#4

Sports Illustrated predicted the Houston Astros would win the 2017 World Series ... in 2014!  The Astros made the playoff appearance in 2015 with their young stars, but followed it up with a letdown season in 2016.  Will 2017 prove the Sports Illustrated writers to be geniuses, or will they underwhelm once again?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

Carlos Correa will win the AL MVP.

2016 Results

84-78, 3rd in AL West

The win total of the Houston Astros only dropped two games from 2015 to 2016, however everyone around them got better, dropping them to third in their division with no chance at a playoff birth.  The 2015 Astros were much better than they were supposed to be.  This raised expectations much higher than was realistic for 2016.  A key example of this was Carlos Correa, who exploded in 2015, but did not come close to winning the MVP as I predicted he would do.

Additions / Subtractions

For so long, the Astros have been all about building the farm system and building the future.  The 2017 offseason showed that the Astros have arrived at that future.  All of a sudden, they started to spend money and acquire veterans to complement their group of young stars.  Josh Reddick was brought in to start in rightfield.  Nori Aoki was brought in to start in leftfield.  Brian McCann was brought in to be a power-hitting catcher.  Carlos Beltran was brought back to Houston to try and relive some of his past heroics in an Astros uniform.  The only notable subtractions were upgrades at catcher (McCann over Jason Castro) and leftfield (Aoki over Colby Rasmus).

Most Important Hitter

Carlos Correa

It is easy to forget that Carlos Correa is only 22 years old.  Being a number one overall pick and having instant success will make that happen.  With all that said, Correa is a centerpiece of this franchise and a key to the Astros' present and future success.  I predicted him to be the MVP last season, which may have been a little premature.  However, he needs to be at an MVP caliber this season or very soon after for the Astros to reach the championship level they feel they can reach.

Most Important Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel

In 2015, Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young.  Again, when players find instant success, quite often a player regresses the next season.  That is what happened for Keuchel.  He went 9-12 with a 4.55 ERA, far from his Cy Young level.  Many people believe the Astros should have traded for Jose Quintana over the offseason (and still might mid-season) because of the fact that no one knows if there is a true ace on this staff.  Whether a trade happens for Quintana or not, Dallas Keuchel needs to get back to the level he was at in 2015 if the Astros want to get back to the playoffs.

Player to Watch

David Paulino

The Astros have several prospects that could play a role for the team in one of two ways.  They may either make an impact for the team down the stretch, or they might be part of a package that helps bring an ace like Jose Quintana into Houston.  David Paulino is one of those propects.  This 23 year old pitcher got a taste of the big leagues at the end of 2016 and could be a presence in the rotation for the Astros (or White Sox) at any point this season.

2017 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALCS

After a year of regression, I see 2017 as the year the Astros take the next step forward.  They have such a great combination of young budding stars and established veterans that have been there before.  They should have no problem scoring runs.  Their pitching will be good and potentially great if they make the trade everyone expects them to make at some point.  They won a Wild Card Game and went to the ALDS in 2015.  Look for the Astros to win their first AL West division title ever and make it all the way to the ALCS this season.

Fearless Prediction

Jose Quintana will be an Astro before Memorial Day.

It won't take the Astros long to realize they need that extra arm in their rotation.  The White Sox want to get rid of Quintana, and he would be a perfect fit in Houston.  With all the moves the Astros made this offseason, it is obvious they want to win either this year or next year.  If one more move is going to get you there, you make the move.  Look for it to happen sooner rather than later.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

#21

When the Miami Marlins finished their 2016 season, no one cared what their record was because of an unthinkable tragedy.  Will the Marlins be able to recover and have a successful 2017 season?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in NL East

Giancarlo Stanton will play a full season and hit 55+ home runs.

2016 Results

79-82, 3rd in NL East

Looking at the numbers, the Miami Marlins had a successful season as they once again took a step forward as one of the fun young teams to watch.  However, none of that mattered after the morning of September 25, when ace Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident.  This led to that night's game being cancelled (hence only the 161 games played) and one of the most tragic weeks in baseball history as the Marlins struggled to finish the season while missing their emotional leader.  What was an encouraging sign of a bright future for the franchise, 2016 turned into a season that left them lost and wondering where to turn.  As for my Fearless Prediction, once again injuries kept Stanton from playing a full season.  We are still waiting to see what heights he can reach if he could stay on the field fr a full season.

Additions / Subtractions

Jose Fernandez's untimely death left a huge hole in this team that was going to be hard to fill.  On a positive note, the Marlins' roster is mostly unchanged moving into 2017.  They did sign a couple pitchers to try and fill Fernandez's shoes.  Edinson Volquez, following some successful seasons with the Royals, is now considered the ace of the Marlins with fellow newcomer Dan Straily sliding into the #2 spot.

Most Important Hitter

Giancarlo Stanton

Like I have already stated, a full season of a healthy Giancarlo Stanton would be a sight to see.  Unfortunately, this has yet to happen in his young career.  Stanton is the heart of this order and the player that makes it work.  When he isn't in the lineup, the Marlins have few places to turn for power despite a strong lineup.  If they are to be successful in 2017, they need a full season from Stanton.

Most Important Pitcher

Adam Conley

Adam Conley had flashes of brilliance in 2016.  The problem was they were only flashes.  This is fine for a pitcher entering only his second full season in the big leagues, but with Jose Fernandez gone, the Marlins' pitching staff is now looking quite old.  Conley, at 27, is the youngest pitcher in their projected starting five and really the only one that hasn't already hit his ceiling.  Conley showed flashes of being a star in 2016.  They need him to be a star in 2017.

Player to Watch

Brian Anderson

The Marlins continue to sport one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball, only having one player in the Top 100 Prospects (who won't be major league ready for another couple seasons).  This leaves little chance at getting any rookies this season that could have a noticeable impact on the team.  One that might have a chance is infielder Brian Anderson.  If injuries derail the seasons of any of the Marlins' starting infielders, look for Anderson to get a chance to prove himself with the big club.

2017 Prediction

4th in NL East

I love the Marlins' lineup.  From Stanton to Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, JT Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna, the Marlins have an incredible young core of hitters.  The problem is their pitching.  Jose Fernandez's death might be one of the most tragic events in recent baseball history.  Not only was he only 24 years old with his entire life, let alone his baseball career, in front of him, but he was one of two or three pillars on which the Marlins were building this franchise.  With his tragic passing, they lost all momentum that may have been built in 2016.  It also left their starting rotation looking like one of the worst in the league.  They need more than Volquez and Straily to stabilize and solidify this pitching staff.  Unless they fix their pitching soon, they might waste the great window they have with their young lineup.

Fearless Prediction

The Marlins will trade for Jose Quintana mid-season.

Like I said, the Marlins need to do something big to fix their rotation.  Jose Quintana is the biggest arm available on the trading market.  The Marlins don't have a farm system to put together a monster package of prospects like other teams have done, but I think they can figure something out to make something like this happen.  Quintana would be a great fit for any team, but considering the Latin presence in Miami, Quintana might be able to appeal to the community at large in a way Jose Fernandez was able to.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

#22

Many people say the Chicago White Sox won the offseason by how well they were able to reset their franchise and start their rebuild.  How much success will this lead to in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in AL Central

Manager Robin Ventura will be fired before the All Star Break.

2016 Results

78-84, 4th in AL Central

Going into the 2015 season, the White Sox were stuck in limbo.  Were they going for it, or were they rebuilding?  They were trying to do both at the same time, and instead did neither.  They were stuck in the middle going nowhere.  Robin Ventura wasn't fired before the All Star Break, but he was fired after the season was over.  Something needed to change either one way or another.

Additions / Subtractions

Finally, the White Sox decided to hit the reset button, and did so better than almost anyone has done in recent history.  The White Sox traded away two stars and single-handedly reset their farm system.  Chris Sale was sent to the Red Sox, and Adam Eaton was sent to the Nationals.  The prospects they brought back became five of their current top ten prospects in their system, including their top four prospects.  The only veteran talent the White Sox brought in this offseason was starter Derek Holland and outfielder Peter Bourjos.  Possibly the most significant addition the White Sox made was hiring new manager Rick Renteria, who is finally getting a fair chance as a manager after he was cast aside across town when Joe Maddon became available in 2015.

Most Important Hitter

Todd Frazier

With everything the White Sox did over the offseason, they could have done more.  All their veteran talent was on the trading market, but not all were able to be moved.  Todd Frazier is the biggest bat that is still on the team.  If he has another year like he did last year, the Todd-Father will be on the move for more prospects, making him quite the significant hitter for this team.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Quintana

Quintana is an important pitcher for the same reason Todd Frazier is an important hitter.  Quintana is hands down the ace of this pitching staff now, however the Sox have been trying to move him as much as they wanted to move Chris Sale.  You have to give their front office credit though.  They refuse to settle for a sub-par offer on any of their stars.  This is how they got such big returns for Sale and Eaton.  Because of this uncompromising approach to their rebuild, Quintana is still on their roster.  This will serve them well because he is a great pitcher.  At the same time, he can still provide that big return the White Sox are looking for if another team gets desperate for a starter mid-season.

Player to Watch

Yoan Moncada

There are so many names that could be placed in this spot.  Easily, each of their top seven prospects could see time in the big leagues this year, highlighted by starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, who they picked up from the Nats in the Eaton deal.  However, the crown jewel of their farm system, as well as their offseason, is Yoan Moncada.  The centerpiece of the package the White Sox got back from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale deal, the 21 year old switch-hitting infielder is as close to a can't miss superstar prospect as they get.  This Cuban import will be a regular in Chicago before the end of the season.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The White Sox are going to be one of the most exciting teams to watch this season.  They won't be very good just yet, but they will surprise some people as their youth will emerge hungry and ready to compete.  Their record will probably be worse than it was last year, but at least this franchise has a clear direction in where it is going.  They broke this franchise down to take it to new heights.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the White Sox' Opening Day lineup will not be on their roster at the end of the season.

Like I said, the White Sox had a great offseason as they started their rebuild, but they still can do more.  I don't think this team is done breaking down this roster.  Look for players like Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia, Peter Bourjos, Derek Holland, and closer David Robertson to be on the trading block throughout the season.