2021 Oscar Predictions: Final

We know about all we are going to know before the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, March 15, so here are my final predictions for all categories! The Golden Globes only muddied the race, but now with the Critics Choice winners and those bizarre BAFTA nominations...we still know nothing. That's what makes this year so interesting. It is impossible to go chalk because there is no chalk.. Stay tuned after the nominations are announced for my Reactions to the Nominations article, as well as the Oscar Challenge!

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 8 will be nominated)

1. Nomadland (Chloe Zhao) - LOCK

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) - LOCK

3. Minari (Lee Isaac Chung) - LOCK

4. Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell) - LOCK

5. Mank (David Fincher) - LOCK

6. Sound of Metal (Darius Marder) - Everything points to it being a near-lock in the way that Whiplash was, and it has been treated that way by most awards circuits. The BAFTA gave it enough love, and the PGA nom is telling.

7. One Night in Miami (Regina King) - It got really overlooked by BAFTA, but it has shown up everywhere else it needed to. With only one real chance at a major nomination, it could be further down this list than even this suggests.

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (George C. Wolfe) - The BAFTA really didn’t care about this movie, but the PGA and lead acting love place it just barely in the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up with just a couple acting nominations and a couple artistic noms, but for now this seems like a safe spot.

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Shaka King) - The momentum is building for the film, but it might just be too late. The love from the PGA and BAFTA is encouraging, but it still can’t seem to get singled out as being among the best pictures of the year.

10. News of the World (Paul Greengrass) - It is still the old-fashioned Oscar movie with Tom Hanks. In a field that is so annoyingly political and all covering basically the same issues, this could be the familiar choice that older members can get behind. Plus, it was one movie that refused to be a streamer.

Others in contention

11. The Father (Florian Zeller) - The BAFTA certainly helps its cause, but Olivia Colman was even left out. With the screener issues, I feel like it would almost be a surprise if it winds up in the field at this point.

12. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Jason Woliner) - The PGA nomination and the Golden Globe wins keep this garbage in the race, but it really just can’t get the first place votes.

13. Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee) - It continuously gets snubbed everywhere possible. It is basically dead at this point, but Spike Lee is a name that could pull a couple nominations out of nowhere.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Chloe Zhao - Nomadland - LOCK

2. Lee Isaac Chung - Minari - After Zhao, we have a bunch of beloved films, but many of the directors are unknowns or making their first film. Chung seems like the safest bet, but it is hard to call him a true lock. His movie has shown up in all the right places where eligible.

3. David Fincher - Mank - The complete indifference toward the film from BAFTA hurts his chances, but he is Fincher. It is objectively one of the finest directions of the year, and like Tarantino last year, he should be recognized for his world-building achievements.

4. Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - He should be a lock, but there is always a bias toward people who haven’t paid their dues as a director. Bradley Cooper in 2018, Denzel Washington in 2016, Ben Affleck in 2012...Sorkin could follow that path and still be the Best Picture winner.

5. Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman - I have no idea where to go from here. She got the DGA nomination, which is huge. The only thing is that Regina King was in the Debut Director category, so she probably wasn't competing for the top prize. It is between those two for this final spot.

Others in contention

6. Regina King - One Night in Miami - She is clearly beloved throughout the industry, but this is hard to see. They never nominate these types of smaller setting movies for Director, but this would be their blanket statement choice.

7. Spike Lee - Da 5 Bloods - Just because he is Spike Lee. His movie is a mess, but it is a Spike Lee Joint mess. In a year of craziness and knowing nothing, he could be a default space filler on a lot of ballots and make a run.

8. Paul Greengrass - News of the World - If the Oscars want something safe and familiar, they will vote for Greengrass. It is the only real traditional film with an epic scope in the running. It is basically True Grit, which got a host of nominations.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - LOCK

2. Anthony Hopkins - The Father - LOCK

3. Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal - LOCK

4. Steven Yeun - Minari - It would hurt if he gets snubbed, but he is the most vulnerable from that movie. There are a lot of actors making a late push, since there are so many more established actors in his way, he sits here just outside of lock status.

5. Gary Oldman - Mank - Something tells me he is getting snubbed. There are a host of great performances in that movie, and he fades to the background at times. It could really end up being De Niro in The Irishman.

Others in contention

6. Tahar Rahim - The Mauritanian - The Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations are head-scratching and absolutely huge for Rahim. He has been doing great work for over a decade now, and he would be a nice surprise if he takes this little seen movie all the way to the ceremony.

7. Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods - He could be the Antonio Banderas nomination where he got snubbed by everyone, but he is so beloved as an actor that he somehow sneaks in at the last second. The problem is that his movie has almost no traction.

8. Mads Mikkelsen - Another Round - The BAFTA nomination is huge. He is a recognizable enough face, and he is obviously good enough to make a run at winning the thing. This is becoming more of a possibility by the day.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Viggo Mortensen - Falling

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Frances McDormand - Nomadland - LOCK

2. Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - LOCK

3. Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman - LOCK

4. Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman - The BAFTA snub is shocking, especially since she had two movies that were absolutely showered with nominations. I have said she is vulnerable all awards season, and it would be heartbreaking if this amazing role was left off in the end for not having an “Oscar scene”.

5. Sophia Loren - The Life Ahead - This is really just a stab. She is a legend, and she is in a movie that could easily have multiple other nominations. If they are looking for someone to fill out their ballot, this could be an easy choice. It is Netflix, so I’m sure people have seen it. It just feels like the category where we are going to get a real surprise.

Others in contention

6. Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday - Other than her jaw-dropping Globe win, she and her movie have been completely overlooked. She isn’t enough of a name to get in despite mediocre reviews. Plus, the movie, even though it is on Hulu, just doesn’t have any buzz anywhere.

7. Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy - The SAG nomination lets us know that actors love her and will nominate her for anything. The lingering feeling of an Arrival snub and then a ludicrous makeup nomination for Vice leave me dumbfounded with how she is evaluated. I could see her getting in, and I can see her movie getting 0 nominations.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Yeri Han - Minari

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah - LOCK

2. Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami - LOCK

3. Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - The BAFTA snub is lingering. He is close to a lock still, but there are so many flashy performances in that film that he could be left off or just get the screenplay nomination as a consolation.

4. Paul Raci - Sound of Metal - He has been in and out of all the important races, but he just gives the best supporting performance of the year. It will be hard to see him not getting enough votes, but not having SAG is alarming.

5. Mark Rylance - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - This fifth slot is wide open. I am going back to one of my original predictions. After seeing the movie, there was no doubt in my mind that he was getting nominated. He is a past winner and needs that second nomination.

Others in contention

6. Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods - He got nominated in the right places, but the Oscars are really hesitant to double nominate someone, especially for their first nomination. Jamie Foxx got that kind of love, but that is really where the list stops. He is right there in the running for that fifth spot.

7. Jared Leto - The Little Things - SAG and HFPA both nominated him for this movie that no one seems to really like. He is obviously a threat to get in here too, but getting a lone nomination in this category is not a common occurrence. He is similar to Rylance in that he needs that first nomination after his win.

8. Alan Kim - Minari - The BAFTA nomination and the Critics Choice Young Actor/Actress upset put him squarely in the race. I can’t sign off on it, but I would love to see it. He is adorable.

9. Glynn Turman / Colmon Domingo - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Singling one of them out is kinda ridiculous, but both of them showed up on the Spirit Award nominations. The ensemble was nominated at SAG. If one of them gets in, then watch out for Ma Rainey to overperform as a whole at the Oscars.

10. Frank Langella - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - He is one of the standouts of the cast, and he is a legendary actor with just one nomination. It would be a surprise, but not a shocker.

11. David Strathairn - Nomadland - He is the second recognizable face in the Best Picture frontrunner. He does nothing, but sometimes that doesn’t matter. Name recognition for the one-time nominee could be enough.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Stanley Tucci - Supernova

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari - She is the safest contender, but she is still somehow not a lock. Everything points to her winning the same way that Alan Arkin did in 2006, but these types of performances don’t always follow through.

2. Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - She has gotten every nomination she needs to, and has only really missed in her Golden Globe Best Actress race. It is an atrocious movie, and it is somewhat baffling that this unknown actress is getting singled out for her “performance” in it, but here we are. She is fine, but it never felt like an award-worthy performance. She is probably getting in, but maybe the Academy still has some standards and will think better of it.

3. Olivia Colman - The Father - She missed out on BAFTA, which is insane. Maybe the movie just doesn’t have the traction that it needs. She should probably be the frontrunner, but at this point we can’t even be sure of a nomination.

4. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy - She may never actually win. She got snubbed by BAFTA, along with everyone else in this race. The movie is just not very good, and that could wind up costing her. She still needs to be here out of respect.

5. Ellen Burstyn - Pieces of a Woman - She has the scene. It is a short part, and she has missed almost everywhere, but this is the kind of role that shows up right at the last moment and gets nominated. Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook comes to mind.

Others in contention

6. Amanda Seyfried - Mank - She missed at SAG and BAFTA, which is brutal. I am starting to get some Mila Kunis in Black Swan vibes from how she is being treated. Maybe it is a little too soon to give her this kind of recognition in a movie that isn’t as beloved as it should be.

7. Helena Zengel - News of the World - SAG and the Golden Globes both gave her a nomination. I thought she would get in at BAFTA, but she missed. She also lost the Young Actor/Actress category. My gut still says she is getting nominated, but maybe the movie just doesn’t get in anywhere.

8. Dominique Fishback - Judas and the Black Messiah - It would be a bit of a head-scratcher, but with the BAFTA nom and the building momentum as people see the movie, it is becoming more of an option.

9. Jodie Foster - The Mauritanian - The Golden Globe winner is sitting this low. She isn’t all that great in the movie, nor is the movie all that great. The BAFTAs clearly loved it, but they failed to nominate her. Nothing makes sense.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Vanessa Kirby - The World to Come

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell - LOCK

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Aaron Sorkin - 

3. Minari - Lee Isaac Chung - LOCK

4. Mank - Jack Fincher - LOCK

5. Judas and the Black Messiah - Shaka King, Will Berson, Kenneth Lucas, Keith Lucas - Of all the contenders for this fifth spot, this seems like the least interesting and safest choice. It is a broad movie that is a big mess, but there is a lot of flashy dialogue that will appeal to a lot of voters.

Others in contention

6. Sound of Metal - Darius Marder, Abraham Marder - It hasn’t gotten the nominations in this category that it really needs, but the movie has been steadily picking up more nominations throughout the last two months. This would be a beautiful inclusion.

7. Soul - Kemp Powers, Mike Jones, Pete Docter - Pixar usually gets in here with their best movies, and this is one of them. But this is a weird year. With a monster box office, this would have been a surefire nominee...but this is 2020.

8. Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg, Tobias Lindholm - This category is always open to foreign films. The huge BAFTA showing for the film makes this a possibility.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Nomadland - Chloe Zhao - LOCK

2. The Father - Florian Zeller, Christopher Hampton - LOCK

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Ruben Santiago-Hudson - The play adaptation thing is the only thing holding it back. It is very stagey, and that usually is the nail in the coffin in this category. It still is one of the frontrunners, just because we don’t have a lot of really prestigious writers or projects here like usual.

4. One Night in Miami - Kemp Powers - The screenplay is pretty bad, but it is easy to understand. It has flash and interesting characters, but other than that we are looking at a filler nominee. He should be getting nominated for Soul.

5. The Mauritanian - Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani, Micahel Bronner - The movie has performed better than anyone really expected. This is the kind of movie that ends up getting nominated. Call it the Ides of March spot.

Others in contention

6. News of the World - Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies - It feels like a nominee, but it has missed on a lot of screenplay categories this season.

7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 9 different writers - The WGA nomination and the movie’s baffling PGA nomination make this still a possibility. The original was nominated in this category as well. Do we really need 9 nominees from one movie? That seems a little ridiculous.

8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things - Charlie Kaufman - If the Academy wants to go back to an old faithful, this movie is sitting there waiting for some love. It is as creative of a movie that came out in 2020.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland

2. Mank 

3. News of the World

4. First Cow

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. News of the World

4. Tenet

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Emma

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Mank

4. Mulan

5. Ammonite

BEST SOUND

1. Sound of Metal

2. Tenet

3. Soul

4. Mank

5. Nomadland

BEST EDITING

1. Sound of Metal

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Nomadland

4.. Promising Young Woman

5. News of the World

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Mank

4. Mulan

5. Welcome to Chechnya

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1. Hillbilly Elegy

2. Mar Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Mank

4. Pinocchio

5. Emma

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Speak Now” - One Night in Miami

2. “Husavik” - Eurovision Song Contest

3. “Io Si” - The Life Ahead

4. “Fight for You” - Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Turntables” - All In: The Fight for Democracy

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Minari

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective

2. Time

3. Boys State

4. The Mole Agent

5. Welcome to Chechnya

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. The Croods: A New Age

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1. Another Round

2. Quo vadis, Aida?

3. Two of Us

4. La Lorona

5. Dear Comrades!

Predicted Nominations Count (2+)

Mank: 11 noms / 1 win

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: 8 noms / 1 win

 Nomadland: 7 noms / 5 wins

The Trial of the Chicago 7: 7 noms

Minari: 6 noms / 1 win

Sound of Metal: 5 noms / 2 wins

Promising Young Woman: 5 noms / 1 win

One Night in Miami: 4 noms /1 win

News of the World: 4 noms

Soul: 3 noms / 2 wins

Judas and the Black Messiah: 3 noms / 1 win

Tenet: 3 noms / 1 win

The Father:  3 noms

Emma: 2 noms / 1 win

Hillbilly Elegy: 2 noms / 1 win

The Life Ahead: 2 noms

Pieces of a Woman: 2 noms

Welcome to Chechnya: 2 noms

Thoughts? Any omissions? What is happening with Supporting Actress?? Let me know in the comments!

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

 #22

The Seattle Mariners have gotten the reputation of being one of the biggest newsmakers of the last few offseasons.  This year, they made news for the wrong reasons.  Now they have one of the more exciting young rosters in the league and a front office in turmoil.  How will all the drama affect the on-field production in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#26 - 5th in AL West

MIH - Daniel Vogelbach

MIP - Yusei Kikuchi

PTW - Evan White

FP - The Mariners will not have a single reliever with more than 10 saves.

2020 Results

#19 - 27-33, 3rd in AL West

The Mariners overachieved in the shortened 2020 season, playing meaningful games in the last few weeks as they had a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  They did all this without the help of every player I mentioned in my prediction.  Daniel Vogelbach was DFA'ed early on in the season, Yusei Kikuchi was their worst starting pitcher in terms of ERA+, and Evan White was one of the worst hitters in the league (despite winning a Gold Glove).  The standouts on the season were Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner J.P. Crawford, and utilityman Dylan Moore who led the team in WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

In the past few seasons, the Mariners seem to pull off a trade every week over the offseason, but this year was curiously quiet as the roster has now been fully reset.  There were some minor moves made to complement the new young emerging core.  The only adds were on the pitching front with a couple bullpen arms coming in with Ken Giles (who won't pitch till 2022), Rafael Montero, and Keynan Middleton and a couple adds to the rotation with Chris Flexen and a reunion with James Paxton.  The lineup looks exactly the same as it did at the end of last season.  The biggest news of the offseason was the resignation of Team President Kevin Mather after an embarrassing video came to light where he revealed way too much about the behind the scenes workings of the organization and his opinions on the Mariners' stars and top prospects.

Most Important Hitter

Kyle Lewis

In 2020, Kyle Lewis might have been the biggest breakout surprise of the season.  The former Golden Spikes winner in college finally showed why he was a first round pick and a potential face of a franchise.  With all that said, he ended the year in quite a slump.  In a normal season, we would have been able to see if he could come out of that slump or if that slump would have defined his season.  Now we are entering 2021, and the Mariners are counting on Lewis being the superstar he was the first half the 2020 season.  The real answer is we don't know which is the real Kyle Lewis.  Either way, for the Mariners to have success in 2021, Lewis needs to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Justus Sheffield

Another surprise of the 2020 season, Justus Sheffield finally fulfilled some of the promise he showed as a top prospect that was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Mariners by the Yankees in the James Paxton deal.  (On a side note, it is quite ironic that both Paxton and Sheffield are now in the same rotation in Seattle.)  Sheffield had a quiet breakout season and is now going to be counted on as a dependable key piece of their rotation in 2021.  He needs to continue to grow and take steps forward to show that he can be counted on in 2021 and beyond.

Prospect to Watch

Jarred Kelenic

Give the front office some credit!  In 2018, the Mariners were one of the oldest rosters in the league and had one of the worst farm systems.  Now, they are one of the youngest rosters with one of the top farm systems about to make some serious impact at the big league level.  They have 6 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball, along with two in the top 5.  It was hard to choose just one prospect because I see multiple players making their big league debut and having a huge impact in 2021.  Logan Gilbert is a big flamethrower that could easily be the ace of the Mariners' staff by the end of the season.  However, the only real answer here is Jarred Kelenic.  The centerpiece of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade with the Mets, Kelenic has been flying up the prospect lists (now at #4 in baseball) ever since he was drafted and now seems ready to be a star.  He was also one of the primary targets of the Kevin Mather rant, criticizing him for not taking a club-friendly long-term contract and admitting that the Mariners are planning on manipulating his service time.  Even though he has never played over AA ball, he might be starting in leftfield on Opening Day just for the club to save some face and see if his star can truly take off.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL West

This is a hard one to predict.  The Mariners surprised in the short 2020 season, but they also seem content to look towards 2022 as their year to make the big leap into contention.  At the same time, they have a ton of exciting young talent that will be hitting the field every night.  The turmoil in the front office could also unite the young roster or turn them against the organization.  I think they will show flashes of the possible greatness that is to come while uniting together, but ultimately they are going to still be a year away.  It wouldn't surprise me if they end up around a .500 record though.

Fearless Prediction

The Mariners will have four straight Rookies of the Year.

Like I said, the Mariners have a ridiculous farm system filled with talent that will be hitting the big leagues over the next few years.  Kyle Lewis surprised everyone last season by winning Rookie of the Year.  Jarred Kelenic is definitely a favorite to win that award in 2021.  In 2022, the Mariners' next big prospect Julio Rodriguez should be ready to break out.  In 2023, stud infielder Noelvi Marte (who will probably work his way up to a top 10 prospect ranking before he hits the big leagues) will be the next big star.  All of that without even mentioning the pitching studs like Logan Gilbert that could be in the running for the award as well.  So although the team might not be great this season, and the front office might currently be a dumpster fire, it is a pretty exciting time to be a Mariners fan.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

 #23

The Detroit Tigers are a young up-and-coming roster that looks poised to take a leap in 2021.  Will it be enough to be players in the AL Central this season?

2020 Predictions

#29 - 5th in AL Central

MIH - Jonathan Schoop

MIP - Matthew Boyd

PTW - Casey Mize

FP - Miguel Cabrera will retire at the end of the 2020 season.

2020 Result

#28 - 23-35, 5th in AL Central

I had the Tigers' season pretty well prognosticated last year.  They were still a young roster that needed to grow up a little more.  One thing I did not get right is Miguel Cabrera is still around as a veteran presence in the clubhouse.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers made minor tweaks to their roster getting ready for the 2021 season.  They brought in Jose Urena from the Marlins to help their rotation and Robbie Grossman to give professional at bats from the outfield.  The rest of the roster is mainly young players needing experience.  The biggest move made that could have a huge impact is the hire of AJ Hinch to replace the retiring Ron Gardenhire.

Most Important Hitter

Jeimer Candelario

The best player in terms of WAR for the Tigers last season was Jeimer Candelario, ending the season with almost a .300 average and a 135 OPS+.  Entering his age 27 season, this could be just the start of his prime.  For a team looking to show some progress in 2021, they are looking for who will be the heart of their future core.  If Candelario repeats the production of 2020, he could become a face of this next wave of Tigers success.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

Michael Fulmer's career couldn't have gotten off to a stronger start.  He won Rookie of the Year in 2016, then made the All Star Team in 2017.  Then in 2018 he got hurt, and it knocked out his entire 2019 season.  He came back in 2020 and was far less than what he was before the injury.  Now with another year removed, he needs to get his career back on track, either to be a veteran arm anchoring a young rotation or to be a trade chip at the Trade Deadline.

Prospect to Watch

Tarik Skubal

The Tigers have built up a strong farm system, boasting five players in the top 25 best prospects in baseball.  Three of those prospects are pitchers that should all be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the 2021 season.  Although Casey Mize gets a lot of the headlines as a former #1 overall pick, Tarik Skubal might be the more impressive.  Getting drafted in the 9th round of the same draft that produced Mize, Skubal is a big lefty with a fastball that comes close to triple digits.  He was able to log some innings in 2020 with mixed success.  Look for 2021 to be a breakout year for Skubal, Mize, and the third of their three-headed prospect monster in Matt Manning.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL Central

I see the Tigers taking a huge step forward in 2021.  Moving out of the cellar doesn't sound like a big move, but the AL Central has quietly become one of the deepest divisions in baseball.  The addition of AJ Hinch as manager is huge as he has already shown the ability to take a team ready to break out over the top in Houston.  You add to that the potential of an elite big 3 emerging at the top of their rotation, and this is going to be a team contenders are not going to want to face in September.

Fearless Predictions

Miguel Cabrera will become a 3000/500 hitter in 2021.

In one year, my thoughts on the role of Miguel Cabrera has completely shifted.  Before last season, I viewed Miggy as a relic of a bygone era that was on his way out.  Now I see the future Hall of Famer as a veteran presence in a lineup and clubhouse that only has two projected starters over the age of 30 (Cabrera at 38 and Matthew Boyd at 30).  This has the potential of being a huge year for Cabrera if he can stay healthy.  He needs 134 hits to reach the magical 3000 hit plateau and 13 homers to get to the magical 500 home run mark.  He would be only the 7th player to ever reach both numbers.  If he gets both this year, this could be an exclamation point on an all-time great career.  For many reasons, this should be an exciting season in Detroit.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #24

The Kansas City Royals had one of the more aggressive offseasons, making several surprising splashes.  Will that work lead to success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Salvador Perez

MIP - Brad Keller

PTW - Brady Singer

FP - Jorge Soler will hit less than 24 home runs in 2020.

2020 Results

#24 - 26-34, 4th in AL Central

The Royals had some moderate success in 2020, but their talent level just couldn't carry them very far.  I had their season well predicted though.  Their two best players in terms of WAR were Salvador Perez and Brad Keller.  Third on that list was rookie Brady Singer.  Jorge Soler came out of the clouds of his home run title in 2019 and only hit 8 home runs in the shortened year.  It seemed like their season was fairly predictable.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals decided this offseason that waiting for the next Hosmer/Gordon/Perez/Moustakas/Cain core to come out of their farm system wasn't worth being mediocre anymore.  So they went out and spent a little money.  They brought in Carlos Santana to play first base.  They signed Mike Minor to round out the rotation.  they signed Michael A. Taylor to play centerfield.  Possibly the biggest move of the offseason they had was trading for Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox to replace the retiring Alex Gordon.  No one can claim the Royals are tanking after what they did this winter.

Most Important Hitter

Jorge Soler

Even with all the new pieces coming into the roster, the heart of the order will still revolve around their big slugger.  Jorge Soler broke out in 2019 with 48 homers.  Although he wasn't bad in 2020, it was not up to the level of that career year.  With bats like Santana and Benintendi giving him protection in the lineup, he has every opportunity to bounce back in 2021.  If he does, this could be a potent offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Staumont

The Royals appear to have a pretty solid rotation with Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, and phenom Brady Singer leading the way.  The hole appears to be the bullpen that doesn't have a clear arm to anchor the back half of the game.  Josh Staumont is a young arm that had some success in 2020.  They need him, or an arm similar to him, to emerge as an elite reliever to lead the way.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Witt Jr.

By far, the top prospect in the Royals' system is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.  The second pick in the 2019 draft, Witt is currently ranked as the 7th best prospect in all of baseball.  Making his debut in 2021 might be a little bit of a stretch, but he has the skill and raw talent to make that kind of jump.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL Central

I feel like there are some definite tiers to MLB teams in 2021.  Numbers 30-25 are teams that really have no chance to make a significant impact in 2021.  The Royals start a run of teams that are probably not making the playoffs, but they have the talent to make things interesting.  I am probably underselling the Royals and what they can do in 2021 by putting them this low, but I just don't think they are quite at a point where they can climb much beyond here.  Because of the growth from some other teams in the division, that puts them in the cellar.

Fearless Prediction

The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

If the Royals are truly this far out of contention, they should be sellers at the deadline this season.  Their lineup is so young though, that I doubt they will trade away any hitters.  Their pitching staff, however, has a few veteran arms that I could see being moved.  Mike Minor and Danny Duffy are the prime candidates to be traded.