2019 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Indians

#11

The Cleveland Indians have owned the AL Central over the last several years.  Will their young core of hitters and top-notch starters bring about another playoff run in 2019?

2018 Predictions

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

Corey Kluber will be the AL starting pitcher in the All Star Game.

2018 Results

91-71, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS

Yes, the Indians won 90 games, but they won the AL Central more by default being the only team to finish with a record above .500.  They have had a similar formula the last few seasons: pitch well behind Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco while scoring runs behind emerging superstars Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.  Ramirez and Lindor almost had 8 win seasons, while Kluber (who made the All Star Team but didn't start) has a 5.8 and Bauer had a 5.7 WAR.  All this success did not lead to any postseason success as they still carry such a long championship drought.

Additions / Subtractions

The Indians had one of the more intriguing offseasons in the league.  The front office looked at the roster they had put together and started to question how sustainable their payroll would be moving forward.  They traded away slugger Edwin Encarnacion to the Mariners to bring back former Indian Carlos Santana.  They traded away catcher Yan Gomes and slugger Yonder Alonso.  They traded corner infielder Yandy Diaz to the Rays for Jake Bauers, who has much more flexibility.  Their top outfielders from a year ago, Michael Brantley and Melky Cabrera, left through free agency and really weren't replaced.  Some late minor league acquisitions that will obviously have a big league impact eventually were Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Gonzalez, but they really tried to cut salary.  They even tried to do more, with constant rumors of Kluber or Bauer being traded, but that came to no avail.

Most Important Hitter

Bradley Zimmer

One of the reasons the Indians did not work harder to find some outfielders in they believe in Bradley Zimmer.  Entering his third season in the big leagues, this 26 year old centerfielder had established himself as the everyday starter last year before he injured his shoulder and ended his season.  He is not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but he is being counted on as being a key piece of what the Indians do this year.  They need him to break out to justify their lack of movement in replacing their outfield production from a year ago.

Most Important Pitcher

Brad Hand

The Indians have one of the best rotations in baseball, but they also have been touting an elite bullpen as well.  However, over the last several seasons they have watched pieces from their World SEries bullpen slowly leave.  Bryan Shaw left via free agency before last season, and this season saw the departure of closer Cody Allen and super reliever Andrew Miller.  None of the main pieces of their World Series super bullpen of 2016 are left.  This makes Brad Hand, their new closer, extremely important.  Hand was acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Padres for top propect Francisco Mejia, and he showed why they paid such a big price for him.  He is an elite bullpen arm, but now he will not have the company in the bullpen the Indians are used to surrounding their closer with.  Hand cannot have a bad season if the Indians want to be great this season.

Prospect to Watch

Yu Chang

The Indians only have two prospects listed in MLB's top 100, and one of them (Triston McKenzie) might make his debut this season depending on what happens with the Indians rotation throughout the season.  However, the player most likely to make a big league impact this season is Yu Chang.  This 23 year old infielder is the Indians 6th best prospect and played his entire 2018 season in AAA to decent success.  The reason he has a chance to make a big league impact this season is the fact that second baseman Jason Kipnis, shortstop Francisco Lindor, and third baseman Jose Ramirez all will probably start the season on the injured list (formerly the disabled list).  The Indians are finding ways to fill these holes temporarily with big league names, but if some of these injuries linger and some of the big leaguers struggle, Chang will get his opportunity to prove himself and show he can be a young utility infielder behind their cast of All Stars.

2019 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

Being ranked 11th on my list means I see the Indians as the last team to miss the playoffs.  They still have all their talent, but I get the feeling this window is closing quickly.  If the Indians are talking about trading some of their All Stars in their prime because they can't afford it, this success is fleeting.  Their division also shouldn't be the pushover it was last season too.  By pure talent, the Indians have to be in the conversation, but combine injuries with potential disgruntled aces and this could be the beginning of the end for this Indians run.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Francisco Lindor's last full season in Cleveland.

Lindor is entering his age 25 season and is already a 3 time All Star.  He is one of the best emerging young superstars in the game.  When he hits the free agent market after the 2021 season, he will be looking to get a contract similar to Machado, Harper, Arenado, or even Trout.  If this offseason showed anything, the Indians will not be able to afford that.  That means Lindor's time in Cleveland has an expiration date.  If he is not a long-term Indian, they might want to maximize his value on the trade market.  Especially if they miss the playoffs this season, the Indians might realize they need to move on from their current core sooner rather than later.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

#12

The New York Mets made several unconventional moves this offseason that set them up to try and win now.  Will this lead them to the playoffs in 2019?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Mets rotation will not see one trip through feature Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler again.

2018 Results

77-85, 4th in NL East

The Mets, under rookie manager Mickey Callaway, struggled through 2018.  Their main struggle was scoring runs, as the Cy Young winning ace could only squeeze out 10 wins.  Outside of Jacob deGrom, the Mets were about as inconsequential as could be last season.  As for my prediction around the rotation, I am not sure if they ever made it through one time with those five, but the fact that Matt Harvey was out of town barely a month into the season shows that I was onto something.

Additions / Subtractions

The Mets had one of the most fascinating offseasons.  It all started with their decision to hire an agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, as their new general manager.  He came in claiming to view personnel decisions from a different point of view which was shown in every move they made.  The biggest move was trading outfielder Jay Bruce, along with several top prospects to the Mariners for second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz.  They also signed veterans Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie.  They traded for Keon Broxton, who looks to be their future centerfielder.  Where many teams stay away from veterans these days, Van Wagenen's philosophy seems to be to embrace the veteran to help you win now.  Every acquisition they made, except for Diaz and Broxton, was for a veteran most teams didn't even want to consider because of their age.  However, the Mets knew they needed offense to try and accompany their pitching, and it had to come from somewhere.  The quickest way to get it is through veteran proven commodities.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Conforto

Although veterans like Cano, Lowrie, and Frazier are the names everyone recognizes in the heart of the Mets lineup, their best hitter might be Michael Conforto.  The Mets have been touting Conforto as the future anchor of their lineup for several years, and he has really started to come into his own recently.  He made the All Star Team in 2017 in career year.  Then in 2018, he played his first full season without injury, playing in 153 games and hitting 28 home runs and 82 RBI's.  Although his production has been moving up, he now needs to emerge as a leader.  With veteran hitters surrounding him in the lineup, this might be the year he takes the next step into being the superstar leader the Mets have been waiting for him to be.

Most Important Pitcher

Steven Matz

When Steven Matz burst onto the scene in 2015 for the Mets World Series run, he was quickly touted as the fifth ace in a massive rotation.  Syndergaard and deGrom have definitely come through on that promise.  Matt Harvey, thought to be the best of the group in 2015, is now on his third team in 12 months.  The jury is still out on Zack Wheeler as he was out with injuries for a couple seasons.  Then there is Matz, the only lefty of the group.  He has shown signs of greatness over the last few years, but it has been inconsistent.  2018 was the first season he topped 150 innings in his career, however his ERA+ shows he was slightly under league average in his production.  If the Mets want to be elite, either Wheeler or Matz have to join deGrom and Syndergaard at the top of their rotation.  With Matz being the lefty, he is more crucial to be the one to emerge.

Prospect to Watch

Peter Alonso

One thing with a veteran team is you better have depth.  The Mets do.  Entering the offseason, Peter Alonso was probably slated as the Opening Day starting first baseman.  Now, with all acquisitions, that debut may have to wait (thanks to some injuries, maybe not...).  Alonso is a big presence at first base and at the plate.  Before the end of this season, watch for him to emerge as the everyday first baseman in Queens.

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL East

I love what the Mets did this offseason.  They needed offense, and they went out and bought one.  Going after the veterans is not popular these days, but that is more because everyone is more focused on sustainable success.  If you are looking at short term success, it isn't a bad way to go.  Look for the offense to show up and allow their pitching to actually win games this year.  I don't know how sustainable this roster will be after 2019, but they should be fun to watch this season as they come up just short of the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

Noah Syndergaard will finish higher in the Cy Young voting than Jacob deGrom.

I am a huge Noah Syndergaard fan.  The guy is a freak athlete.  Now that he is healthy again, he has the opportunity this year to show how good he is.  For him to finish ahead deGrom in the Cy Young voting would be quite a feat considering deGrom is coming off of possibly the most dominant season a pitcher has had in the 21st century.  It is hard to repeat that level of success, but his teammate will pick up where he left off.  This seems to be what the Mets have done over the last few years.  Their aces take turns being the best pitcher on the staff.  This year should be no different.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

#13

The Washington Nationals watched the face of their franchise leave through free agency over the offseason, however some think they might be better for it.  Will that be the case, or will the Nats take a step backward in 2019?

2018 Predictions

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

2018 Results

82-80, 2nd in NL East

The Nationals have ruled this division for most of this decade, winning the division more times than not.  However, after two straight years of winning the division under Dusty Baker, they made a switch at manager hoping it would get them over the hump.  I predicted they would have a similar result as years past by winning the division but losing in the first round of the playoffs.  I didn't think any division competitors were going to be strong enough to challenge them.  I was wrong on several accounts.  First, the division was much more competitive than anyone thought.  Second, the Nats finished with their lowest win total since 2011.  For rookie manager Dave Martinez, 2018 was quite a disappointment.

Additions / Subtractions

What made 2018 a bigger disappointment was they couldn't make a good postseason run in Bryce Harper's last season in DC.  He moved on, signing his mega-deal in Philadelphia.  However, they didn't overreact and try to sign a different mega-deal to replace him.  They did sign the top free agent pitcher though in Patrick Corbin to join an already stout rotation.  He will take the place of departing Tanner Roark in the rotation.  The other moves were more minor but effective.  Out went catcher Matt Wieters, but in came Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki.  Veteran Brian Dozier was brought in to take second base.  Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough were brought in to stabilize the back end of the bullpen.  So even though they may have lost Harper, the offseason looks like a mild success considering what they did accomplish.

Most Important Hitter

Juan Soto

One of the reasons the Nationals were okay watching Bryce Harper walk away from the organziation was the breakout season of Juan Soto.  At only 19, Juan Soto had a breakout season, coming up second in the Rookie of the Year race losing to the Braves Ronald Acuna.  Establishing another potential superstar in Soto made keeping their current one in Harper not quite as necessary.  However, that is a lot of pressure for the now 20 year old.  The sophomore slump is a real thing, but he can't have one.  He will be asked to continue to progress in to a superstar while taking up the mantle of "face of the franchise" that Harper left behind.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Doolittle

Talk about a trade that worked out well for both sides!  In 2017, Sean Doolittle was traded from the A's to the Nationals for Blake Treinen.  I think both teams are happy with the results.  Treinen has become one of the most dominant closers in the league, and Doolittle has continued his strong production when he is on the field.  That is the problem though.  Doolittle has a tendency to get injured.  When he is healthy, there are few better, especially from the left hand side.  However, the Nats need him on the field for a full season.  The additions to the bullpen will be helpful insurance, but Doolittle is the one they want out there with the game on the line every day.

Prospect to Watch

Victor Robles

Reason #2 why the Nationals were okay watching Bryce Harper leave: Victor Robles.  Robles is the 4th best prospect in all of baseball behind only Vlad Jr., Tatis Jr., and Eloy Jimenez.  This 21 year old centerfielder is ready to break out, having made his debut last season in 21 games, but he was going to be without a spot in their outfield if Bryce came back.  Now, he will be patrolling center on Opening Day and is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year entering the season.

2019 Prediction

3rd in NL East

I think the Nationals will actually be better this year than they were last year.  The problem is their division is a lot better than it was last year.  Their record should be slightly better than the .500 record they boasted last season, but they will be falling further behind in the standings with those around them getting that much better.  With the high expectations in DC though, no playoffs will be a huge disappointment for the second straight year.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Dave Martinez will be managing the Cubs in 2020.

The Nationals have been infamously impatient with their managers.  No Nationals manager has made it to three seasons since their first manager in DC, the late great Frank Robinson.  Every other manager either gets fired after two seasons or partway through their third.  Dave Martinez is entering that dreaded second season as the Nationals manager.  Dusty Baker was fired after two season of winning the division.  Dave Martinez will have no chance if he goes two straight seasons missing the playoffs altogether.  Combine that with the likely scenario that Joe Maddon is probably in his last season with the Cubs, and it seems like an obvious move for Dave Martinez, Maddon's former bench coach, to go back and manage the Cubs next season.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

#14

The Chicago Cubs have not been able to repeat the success that won them their historic World Series in 2016.  Will 2019 bring them back to elite or mark the possible end of their run that broke the curse?

2018 Predictions

1st in NL Central, win World Series

2018 Results

95-68, 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lost Wild Card Game

First, I didn't quite get to all my articles last season so I do not have a Fearless Prediction to carry over.  However, you could say predicting them to win two World Series in three years was quite a fearless prediction.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen.  It seems impossible for a 95 win season to be a disappointment, but it was in Chicago.  Although their record still showed success, they struggled all season with injuries and offense.  They lost a playoff game for the division title against the Brewers, then lost the Wild Card Game against the Rockies.  When they needed to win a game, they couldn't.

Additions / Subtractions

With the amount of money they have committed to several players as they have made this run over the last few seasons, the Cubs really had no financial flexibility to go out and acquire anyone.  In fact, they are entering 2019 with almost the exact same roster as they ended last season with.  Daniel Murphy has moved on after being acquired mid-season last year.  Daniel Descalso was brought in to replace Tommy La Stella as a backup utility infielder.  That's about all they did.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant started off his career winning Rookie of the Year in 2015 and the MVP in 2016 before winning the World Series.  2017 wasn't up to his MVP level, but 2018 was his worst season to date.  Injuries limited him to 102 games.  When he played, he was below his lofty standards, only hitting .272 (.295 the year before) with 13 home runs (lowest total before that was 26) and an OPS+ of 118 (lowest before that was 135 his rookie year).  After being a 6 or 7 win player in terms of WAR each season up until this point, 2018 saw him total a 1.9 WAR.  If the Cubs are going to be elite in 2019, Kris Bryant needs to be elite once again.

Most Important Pitcher

Yu Darvish

Some questioned the Cubs last offseason when they decided to sign Yu Darvish to a 6 year deal after he seemed to fall apart in the World Series the year before for the Dodgers.  It was questioned even more when Darvish was only able to make 8 starts and total 40 innings in 2018 due to injuries.  He says he is entering 2019 100% healthy which will be needed.  Darvish still has the ability to be dominant, and the Cubs have a rotation that is aging and shown signs of inconsistency.  Darvish can stabilize the rotation and be the leader he is being paid to be.

Prospect to Watch

Adbert Alzolay

When the Cubs were preparing for their World Series run, they had one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.  Now, is it tends to happen, their system is one of the worst as all their top prospects are now several years into their career.  Others they have traded away to bring in players to help them now, like the 2016 trade of Gleyber Torres to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman.  Or the 2017 trade of Eloy Jimenez to the White Sox for Jose Quintana.  Now they are left with a system that only boasts one player in the top 100, and he is still at least a couple years away.  Their best opportunity for meaningful contributions comes from Adbert Alzolay, a 24 year old right-handed starter.  He missed a good portion of last season with an injury so he won't be ready right away, but look for him to be a helpful arm through the dog days of summer.

2019 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

The way I see it, #11-14 on this list will be teams that are competing for a playoff spot all the way down to the final games, but come up just short.  The Cubs may have a renewed focus and energy this season, but they also now see themselves int he most competitive division in baseball.  Even if their win total is nearing 90 games again, it is possible that is only good for 3rd place in this stacked division.  Some of their core players are aging and past their prime, and I think their window with this core is quickly closing.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Joe Maddon's last season as Cubs manager.

There has been much speculation about this throughout the offseason.  Joe Maddon is in the last year of his contract, and no progress has been made towards an extension.  Several speculate that Maddon might want to see what happens this season first before he decides if he wants to come back.  Some say he might just be done managing.  However you look at it, chances are this is the Cubs last run with the manager that finally brought a World Series title back to Wrigley.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#15

The San Diego Padres won one of the biggest sweepstakes in recent baseball memory.  Will the addition of Manny Machado lead to more wins in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade for a top-end staring pitcher mid-season.

2018 Results

66-96, 5th in NL West

The Padres had a lot of promise going into the 2018 season after signing one of the top available players in Eric Hosmer.  However, they still almost lost 100 games as Hosmer disappointed in his first year in San Diego.  They may not have traded for a starter during last season, even though their starting rotation was their biggest weakness, but that isn't from a lack of trying.

Additions / Subtraction

One of the biggest moves of the offseason for any team was the Padres picking up Manny Machado to man third base for the next 10 years.  Outside of the big prize though, the Padres were fairly quiet.  Veteran Ian Kinsler was brought in to play second base and starter Garrett Richards was added even though he won't pitch until 2020.  All of their eggs were in the Machado basket, and luckily it paid off.

Most Important Hitter

Eric Hosmer

The Padres have taken the philosophy of signing high-priced free agents to provide a veteran presence in a lineup of younger prospects.  Like I said earlier, Eric Hosmer was the prized signing a year ago, however he was a below average hitter and only garnered a 1.4 WAR after a 4 win season in 2017.  He needs to justify his signing by showing he and Machado are the cornerstones the Padres can build around.  If the Padres are to take the next step this season, he needs to be a major reason why.

Most Important Pitcher

Kirby Yates

There is not a single proven starter in the Padres rotation.  This means the bullpen will be relied on at many time throughout the season.  Kirby Yates hopped into the closer role last year after Brad Hand was traded, and he will most likely have the same job this season.  A needed confidence boost for young starting pitchers is to know that when they have a good outing, the bullpen will be able to hold the lead.  Yates is an important part of bringing about that confidence.

Prospect to Watch

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the reasons Manny Machado said he chose the Padres over other teams like the White Sox and Phillies was their top rated farm system.  Manny saw the amount of talent he would be playing with in the next few seasons and saw an opportunity to be a part of something special.  The Padres farm system truly is something special right now, with 10 (yes 10!) prospects in MLB's top 100 best prospects.  Many of these prospects have a chance to either make their debuts or play a key role in the 2019 season including pitchers Logan Allen, Michel Baez, and Chris Paddack, middle infielder Luis Urias, and catcher Francisco Mejia.  However, the prize of their system is shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.  Only rivaled by Vlad Jr. in baseball farm systems, the 20 year old Tatis Jr. has often been compared to Manny Machado in comparing him to what kind of player he could be.  Chances are we won't see him in 2019, but if the Padres have any sort of success this season, they may want to show off their shiny new toy and debut their future infield that will be in place for at least half a decade.  Mejia catching, Hosmer at first, Urias at second, Tatis at short, and Manny at third.  That is going to be hard to beat.

2019 Predictions

3rd in NL West

With the Diamondbacks taking a step back, and the Giants needing to rebuild, 2019 seems to be aligned for the Padres to finally take the step forward they have been wanting to take.  So many of their prospects are ready to make an impact, they have their veterans to anchor their roster.  Look for them to have a decent run at a Wild Card.  If they don't take advantage of this opportunity, look for the Padres to move on from manager Andy Green.

Fearless Prediction

The Padres will trade for a top-end starting pitcher mid-season.

Sound familiar?  They were hunting for one all last season, they were hunting for one this offseason.  They just haven't seemed to find the right fit, which is crazy considering just how much of a pitcher-friendly park they have in San Diego.  Like I said, they have a ton of prospects, but you need an established guy to lead and take off some pressure.  With all their prospects, they could easily package a few together to get the guy they are looking for and still have a glut of talent in the minors.  They will want someone with some club control, and some teams might be willing to part with one knowing what kind of talent they could get back.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Angels

#16

The Los Angeles Angels had an offseason that brought about a transition at manager for the first time since 2000 and ensured there would not be a transition in centerfield for a very long time.  Will these moves help get them over the edge in 2019?

2018 Predictions

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose Wild Card Game

Shohei Ohtani will have 15+ wins and 15+ home runs.

2018 Results

80-82, 4th in AL West

I saw 2018 as a year the Angels were going to take the next step behind Mike Trout and their two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani.  Instead, Ohtani had Tommy John surgery and only pitched about half the season.  Other injuries crippled their roster as well.  Instead of the Angels taking the next step and stealing the second Wild Card spot, their division rival in Oakland did what I expected to see from the Angels.

Additions / Subtractions

The Angels used to be the team you could count on to make the big splash in free agency.  Instead, this offseason they seemed to make a few smaller moves that made sense and should have a positive impact.  Cody Allen signed in free agency to be their new closer, Justin Bour came over to play first base, and Jonathan Lucroy is their new catcher.  The most intriguing move they made was to bring in starter Matt Harvey, who improved greatly last season once he got out of Queens.  The biggest move that was made was bringing in Brad Ausmus to replace longtime veteran manager Mike Scioscia.

Most Important Hitter

Kole Calhoun

For the first four years of his career, Kole Calhoun established himself as one of the best underrated hitters in all of baseball.  However, the last two seasons have been declining, with this last season just hitting .208 and garnering an OPS+ of only 80 and a WAR of 0.7.  He needs to show this season that he should still be a part of the Angels core moving forward.  If he does, he will give the Angels lineup a major boost it needs.

Most Important Pitcher

Jaime Barria

Throughout the Scioscia years, if there was one thing that was the downfall of the Angels, it was their starting rotation.  Ever since Jered Weaver moved on a few years ago, they have been trying to get by with a bunch of mediocrity.  They have always lacked a stud.  They might have one now if he progresses the way he could.  Jaime Barria made 26 starts last season as a 22 year old rookie and already showed he was their most electric starter.  Now, in another average rotation (especially since Ohtani isn't pitching this season), Barria could establish himself as the ace they have always been lacking.  If he does, Ohtani and Barria would make an outstanding 1-2 punch moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

Griffin Canning

The Angels are relying on some resurrection projects to round out their starting rotation this season.  A lot of times, that leads to injuries.  Last year, Barria got his opportunity to prove what he could do.  This year, look for Griffin Canning to get his opportunity mid-season.  The Angels second best prospect, this 22 year old righty has drawn comparisons to Zack Greinke.  If he could only be a fraction of that, he will a useful arm to have in the Angels rotation.

2019 Prediction

3rd in AL West

I always look at the Angels and think they should be better than they end up being.  I guess that is what happens when you have possibly the best player in the game's history on your roster.  However, Mike Trout can't do everything (even though he might try).  I am not a fan of the Brad Ausmus hire after he impressively flamed out in Detroit.  I expect them to have a similar season to last season, maybe a slight bit better.  If Trout will now be around for the next 12 years, slight improvements are not good enough.  Trout deserves better.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Albert Pujols's last season.

Albert Pujols has been one of the best players of the 21st century.  However, he is turning 39 this season, and there are times when he looks like he can barely walk the last few seasons.  His OPS+ has dropped below average the last two seasons after starting his career with 16 season of elite play.  Even though he is still under contract through 2021, it might be time for him to call it a career.