2020 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#29

The Detroit Tigers had been flirting with 100 losses in 2017 and 2018 before finally crossing the line and becoming the worst in baseball in 2019.  There are also only 3 or 4 players left from their roster the last time they were good as they have been stockpiling young talent.  Will 2020 see improvement or more cellar-dwelling?

2019 Predictions

#27 - 4th in AL Central

MIH: Nicholas Castellanos

MIP: Michael Fulmer

PTW: Alex Faedo

FP: Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

2019 Results

#30 - 47-114, 5th in AL Central

Going into the 2019 season, it felt like there was some stiff competition for the cellar of the AL Central between the Tigers and the Royals.  I didn't expect the Tigers to bottom out quite like they did.  Castellanos and Fulmer held so much importance last season for their trade value.  Castellanos did indeed get traded while Fulmer ended up having Tommy John surgery before the season even started.  Even with Fulmer's injury, the pitching performed okay in 2019 (which isn't a huge accomplishment in spacious Comerica Park).  It was the offense that failed them.  The team posted an overall OPS+ of 78 (100 is league average), with only Castellanos posting a total above average at 105, while only three of the team's top 12 players in terms of WAR were position players (one of which was Castellanos who didn't even play the whole season in Detroit).  My Prospect to Watch failed me as well as Alex Faedo, who was drafted as a potentially MLB-ready battle-tested college arm, struggled to regain the form that made him the ace of a College World Series winning team.

Additions / Subtractions

It's easy to compare the Tigers and Orioles right now as they both are going through some difficult rebuilding years.  However, what makes the Tigers different is they are willing to try and bring in some veterans on one year deals to hold spots for some of the young kids coming up, mentor them along the way, and perhaps be flipped at the Trade Deadline if they have a decent season.  This year's crop of players brought into Detroit include C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, and Ivan Nova.  Guys like Cron and Schoop actually are still quality players that could bring some real value to the team.

Most Important Hitter

Jonathan Schoop

Honestly, there isn't much interesting or exciting about this lineup outside of the veterans.  Niko Goodrum is really the only homegrown talent in the lineup that has been able to make a mark in the big leagues as one of the better utility men.  So when picking the important hitter, I am going with the most interesting hitter, and that is Jonathan Schoop.  Like I said before, he can bring some real value to the Tigers.  Only three years removed from being an All Star in 2017, he has had a roller coaster career since, being traded into a platoon in 2018 before regaining a little of his old form in Minnesota in 2019.  Now he is in Detroit as a seasoned veteran mid-season trade chip, even though he is just entering his age 28 season.  Is he the All Star of 2017?  Is he the player that will struggle to find the field he was in 2018?  Or is he somewhere in between like he was in 2019?  It is also the first time he will really be looked at as a potential leader on his team.  I am fascinated to see where how this season plays out for Schoop.

Most Important Pitcher

Matthew Boyd

Last year was a disappointment in a lot of ways for the Tigers, but their best player (at least their best player that was still on the roster at the end of the season) was Matthew Boyd.  The lefty quickly became the ace of their pitching staff and became one of the few bright spots for the Tigers throughout the season.  In fact, the most surprising thing about him might have been the fact that he was never traded.  He was at the heart of many trade rumors and continues to be as the 2020 season gets ready to begin.  Only entering his age 29 season and under club control through 2023, as long as Boyd stays healthy he will be one of the most sought after pitchers on the market when the contenders are looking to upgrade at the Trade Deadline.  You might ask why the Tigers would be willing to trade their young ace when they are trying to rebuild.  The answer is simple ... they have several future aces about to burst on the scene in their farm system.

Prospect to Watch

Casey Mize

One positive about being terrible for an extended period of time and trading away all your top veterans is you build a really good farm system.  Last year's Prospect to Watch, Alex Faedo, now can barely hang on in the top 10 prospects in the Tigers' system.  The Tigers have four players in the Top 100 Prospects, with all of them appearing in the top 50.  Three of those four are pitchers, with Casey Mize being the best of the group.  The 2018 number one overall selection in the draft out of Auburn is the top player in the Tigers' system and the #7 prospect in all of baseball.  With an upper-90's fastball and an elite splitter, Mize has the makeup to be the Tigers' ace for the next decade.  Last season, he topped out in AA.  The potentially truncated 2020 season might delay his big league debut a year, but waiting for him, and fellow top pitching prospect Matt Manning, to splash on the scene is one of the few things Tigers fans have to be excited about.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The Tigers and the Orioles have been two of the worst teams in baseball over the last three season, and this season isn't going to change that fact.  The only reason I am putting the Tigers above the Orioles is because they brought in some more impact veterans and have their top prospects potentially debuting and having an impact this season.  With all that said, the Tigers are not going to be ready to compete until 2022 or 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Miguel Cabrera will retire at the end of the 2020 season.

One of the last holdovers from the Tigers' glory days is Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters of this generation, winning the Triple Crown in 2012, and an easy first ballot Hall of Famer.  However, he is now entering his age 37 season, and his body has broken down so much that he can't really do anything but DH.  Even with that, last year he only totaled 12 home runs and 59 RBI's while posting an OPS+ of 96, making him now a below average hitter.  It is hard to see the greats hold on too long, and I'm afraid Miggy already has.  This really could be his last season, especially if the injury bug hits him yet again, however there are three reasons he might stick around longer.  First, he is 185 hits shy of 3000, a total he can reach by the end of 2021 if he stays healthy.  Second, he is 23 home runs shy of 500, which again is attainable by the end of 2021.  Third, the Tigers are committed to pay him over $30 million per year through 2023.  So there's that.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#30

I wasn't planning on writing my baseball preview articles this season.  I didn't think I was going to have the time (and I didn't).  Then the whole world shut down with a pandemic, and the baseball season was indefinitely postponed.  Needless to say, I all of a sudden have some time on my hands.  So to celebrate the week the baseball season was supposed to start, I am instead starting my slightly delayed look at the season that will be ... whenever we get around to it ... if we get around to it.  (My money is on Opening Day being the 4th of July.)

It is so disappointing to see this season delayed because there were so many fascinating storylines to follow.  Two of the biggest brands and best teams in baseball got even better by each adding one of the best players in the game.  Speaking of the best players in the game, the undisputed #1 of that list finally got a formidable right hand man.  Then there are the teams mired in controversy after a cheating scandal that led to year-long suspensions and references to Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe.  There are a couple superteams and a handful that are in the middle of a full rebuild, but you also have over 20 teams you could legitimately argue are serious playoff contenders.  No wonder rumors are flying to expand the playoffs (a plan which I love, but I don't think it will actually happen until baseball expands to 32 teams).  Even the rebuilding teams are starting to have some reasons to be excited as the stockpiling of prospects are starting to hit the big league field, however this delayed and most likely truncated season will hold back the development of a lot of young talen.  It is going to be an exciting season ... whenever it gets started.

With all that said, we are starting at the bottom and looking at the teams that really have the least to be excited about.  The Baltimore Orioles have been in full rebuild mode for several years now, finishing in the cellar three straight years and bottoming out in 2018 when they lost 115 games.  Last season saw a new GM and manager, but it also saw another 100 loss season.  Will 2020 bring a noticeable improvement or more of the same?

2019 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH: Chris Davis

MIP: Alex Cobb

PTW: Dillon Tate

FP: The Orioles will pick in the top 5 in the MLB Draft for five straight seasons.

2019 Results

#29 - 54-108, 5th in AL East

The Orioles waited way too long to start their rebuild which almost guaranteed they were facing some ridiculously lean years for quite some time.  The players I predicted their success would be dependent on failed miserably.  Chris Davis followed up the historically bad 2018 with a slightly better but still really bad 2019.  The pure power hitter hit below .180 for the second straight year while also failing to top the 20 home run mark, finishing with a -1.2 WAR.  Entering his age 34 season with three years left on a historically bad 7 year, $161 million deal, he is untradeable and probably uncuttable.  As far their Most Important Pitcher, Alex Cobb only pitched in three games before the rest of the season was lost to a hip injury.  He is also entering his age 34 season and signed through 2022, although on a slightly more bearable deal.  Even my pick for their Prospect to Watch floundered as Dillon Tate, once a highly-touted prospect, could only get 21 innings in.  He is barely staying in the top 30 of Baltimore's prospect list.  There was very little to be excited about in 2019 for the Orioles.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles also did not do much over the offseason to excite their fan base.  Their best hitter in 2019, Jonathan Villar, was traded to Miami for a minor leaguer.  The pitcher who had been touted as their ace of the future (although never fully living up to the hype), Dylan Bundy, was traded to the Angels.  Coming in were only veteran placeholders like shortstop Jose Iglesias and starting pitcher Wade LeBlanc.

Most Important Hitter

Hanser Alberto

Last year, I said the Orioles' most important players were the guys that could build trade stock so they could bring back some value.  They don't really have any of those anymore like I already said.  It is now time for the Orioles to take a true step forward, and that means players like Hanser Alberto need to continue to develop into potential stars.  Alberto's success last season allowed for the Orioles to trade Jonathan Villar and make Alberto their everyday second baseman.  He was definitely a bright spot in 2019, hitting over .300 with 12 homers and 51 RBI's.  If the Orioles are going to be better this year, players like Hanser Alberto, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander need to prove they are ready to be daily contributors and possible stars.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

If Alberto was a bright spot among the hitters, John Means was definitely the bright spot in the pitching staff.  The Orioles' lone All Star in 2019, Means had a great season, posting an ERA+ of 131 and finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote behind only Yordan Alvarez of the Astros.  Now with Dylan Bundy gone and Alex Cobb coming off injury, Means will be looked at as the ace heading into the season.  If he continues to develop, he is up to the task and could be the anchor a young team like this needs to move forward.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Mountcastle

The Orioles have four prospects in the top 100, with last year's #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman topping out at #4.  However, Ryan Mountcastle is the one closest to the big leagues.  A former first round pick in 2015, this first baseman has hit at every level, even winning the AAA MVP last season and the Orioles Minor League Player of the Year award.  At some point in 2020, the Orioles will give up on Chris Davis, either by permanently benching him or cutting him and eating the money.  Either way, he will not block Ryan Mountcastle from making the big leagues for long.  He is a future cornerstone the Orioles will try and build on.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL East

This year will be another year of disappointment for the Orioles.  They seem to be on the trajectory the Astros took at the beginning of the 2010's.  Be really bad for 3-5 years and build up draft picks and prospects that will hopefully lead the team to the promised land at some point in the next 10 years.  The Orioles have already bottomed out, but they aren't ready to get better yet.  Look for this to be the third year in a row they earn a top five draft pick.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

Chris Davis is set to make $23 million this year and still has $69 million on his contract.  If he gets cut, those numbers very easily could be greater than the rest of the roster.  If Alex Cobb gets cut too (which is possible if he doesn't bounce back from his injury), then the Orioles will definitely be paying more money to players not in uniform than they will for players that are.  It is never a good thing, but it is sometimes necessary to take the steps forward a franchise needs.

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2020

The amount of surprise nominations was lacking this year, but we did get a somewhat clearer picture as to who the main contenders are. All of the Best Picture favorites got exactly what they needed to in order to keep that status. I can’t wait to see how this develops over the next month or so. The Screen Actors Guild this weekend will say a lot. Check out my reactions, biggest snubs, coolest first-time nominees, and predictions results below!

Also, John Cho and Issa Rae should be our Oscar hosts…just saying.

BEST PICTURE
1917

Ford v Ferarri

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Parasite

Predicted: 9 for 9

Reactions: This was probably the easiest group of 10 nominees to predict, but at least one had to get left out. I am surprised it was Bombshell since it is beloved by the actors, but this is a solid group. Robert De Niro and Bradley Cooper appear as producers, which is cool. Especially since De Niro (spoiler alert) got snubbed for Best Actor. I had Jojo Rabbit winning here before the nominations were announced, and nothing that happened has changed that feeling.

Preliminary prediction: Jojo Rabbit

BEST DIRECTOR

Joon-ho Bong – Parasite

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Sam Mendes – 1917

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Todd Phillips - Joker

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I faded the Joker hype and picked Baumbach to get in instead. However, the DGA nominating Waititi made me think that he had the inside track, but Phillips and his film overachieved in every way. This had been Bong’s to lose, but Mendes has started to take the televised awards. It always goes to the Most Directing as opposed to Best Directing, so that’s Mendes.

Preliminary prediction: Sam Mendes

BEST ACTOR

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Egerton in after winning the Golden Globe. I had Bale in as well, which is ridiculous that he got snubbed after his film got a Best Picture nomination. I missed on Pryce and Banderas, but if I had done my article closer to the announcement, I would have definitely included Banderas. He was my winner prediction all year! With Pryce getting nominated, the entire Glengarry Glen Ross cast now has at least one Oscar nom. This is going to Phoenix. Everyone seems to love him, even when he starts acting insane on stage. It is finally his time.

Preliminary prediction: Joaquin Phoenix

 

BEST ACTRESS

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Soairse Ronan – Little Women

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This was fairly easy to come up with. Awkwafina was always vulnerable (The Farewell was shut out completely), and Lupita Nyong’o was in a horror movie. I couldn’t see these biopics and acting showcases getting passed up. Zellweger is in such a strong position, I can’t help but remember Glenn Close a year ago…

Preliminary prediction: Renee Zellweger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Hopkins missing out in favor of Kang-ho Song from Parasite, which might have just been wishful thinking. Hopkins gets his first nomination since 1997, which is cool to see him back in the game. Pitt has been the frontrunner and will win this.

Preliminary prediction: Brad Pitt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I can’t believe Johansson got two noms. She has been snubbed so many times, but this nomination is a joke. Kathy Bates getting in is cool; I had thought that movie had been left for dead. I missed those two in favor of Nicole Kidman and my suspected (but still not predicted) snub of J-Lo. This award is going to go to Dern, but it is a really strong group of actresses.

Preliminary prediction: Laura Dern

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1917

Knives Out

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Marriage Story

Parasite

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed 1917 and Knives Out in favor of The Farewell and Bombshell. War movies usually miss here, and I really thought Rian Johnson was too cool for the Academy after getting snubbed for Looper. I’m ok with this. I have no idea what is going to win.

Preliminary prediction: Marriage Story

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

Joker

Little Women

The Two Popes

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed Joker in favor of my random stab of Dark Waters. Jojo has to win this in order to win Best Picture.

Preliminary prediction: Jojo Rabbit

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Joker

The Lighthouse

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Parasite and A Hidden Life in for Joker and The Irishman. I’m not sure why The Irishman is nominated here. This is going to Roger Deakins once again, although they do love their black-and-white…

Preliminary prediction: 1917

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1917

Jojo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Parasite

The Irishman

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This was pretty lucky for me to ace. Everyone had Little Women here, but I knew Jojo Rabbit needed more nominations. I would be ok with any of these winning. They are all astonishing achievements.

Preliminary prediction: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Joker

The Irishman

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: Yeah… I had Rocketman, Downton Abbey (shut out), and Dolemite Is My Name in for The Irishman, Joker, and Jojo. Wow…this is a strange group. I’m not sure what makes most of these special. I guess I’ll go with the traditional winner…

Preliminary prediction: Little Women

BEST SOUND MIXING

1917

Ad Astra

Ford v Ferarri

Joker

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Irishman and Rocketman in for Joker and Ad Astra. I’m really happy that Ad Astra got something. The guilds and everyone had abandoned that movie and has gotten snubbed by everyone. It is well a well-deserved nomination, one of the best uses of sound in the last few years. This seems like an easy one to predict, but there’s always an upset in these somewhere. I’ll go with the favorite for now.

Preliminary prediction: 1917

 

BEST FILM EDITING

Ford v Ferarri

Joker

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Parasite

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Once again, I missed Joker. And I left off Jojo (which is looking so strong after showing up here) in favor of the odd snub of Hollywood and the atrocious snub of Uncut Gems (completely shut out). Conventional wisdom would be that The Irishman wins here, but they love action movies in this category.

Preliminary prediction: Ford v Ferarri

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1917

Ford v Ferarri

Joker

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Joker and Hollywood. I had Endgame and Rocketman getting in. Usually the sound categories line up…I don’t know what I was thinking.

Preliminary prediction: 1917

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1917

Avengers: Endgame

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Irishman

The Lion King

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed The Lion King in favor of their yearly horrible movie nomination in Gemini Man. I’m glad I was wrong. This should probably be The Irishman, but I really don’t know. The Critics Choice gave it to Endgame…maybe that will be the boost that movie needs.

Preliminary prediction: Avengers: Endgame

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1917

Bombshell

Joker

Judy

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: There are finally 5 nominees in this category, and I still can’t break 3! I had Hollywood, Dolemite, and Little Women in for everything but Bombshell and Joker. They should go back to just being Best Makeup, since the hairstyling really doesn’t play into the equation.

Preliminary prediction: Bombshell

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“I’m Standing with You” – Breakthrough

“Into the Unknown” – Frozen II

“Stand Up” – Harriet

“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” – Toy Story 4

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had the songs from Aladdin and The Lion King in for Breakthrough and Toy Story 4. I suck at predicting these. They snubbed all of the major stars who were involved in songs, with the exception of Elton John. Cynthia Erivo double nomination! She could get her EGOT if she wins this of Best Actress for Harriet.

Preliminary prediction: Rocketman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1917

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: How many times can John Williams get nominated for doing the exact same thing?! I missed that in favor of my heart…Us. This looked to be a done deal for 1917, but the last two big awards have gone to Joker. Thomas Newman was supposed to finally get his Oscar after 13 tries, but maybe he will have to keep waiting.

Preliminary prediction: Joker

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

American Factory

For Sama

Honeyland

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I predicted the frontrunner Apollo 11 instead of The Cave. It’s ridiculous how this branch continuously just operates with different rules than any other branch and any other awards organization. It is a really interesting group of films, though. It is wide open now.

Preliminary prediction: For Sama

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Corpus Christi

Honeyland

Les Miserables

Pain and Glory

Parasite

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I figured Honeyland would be nominated for one of these categories like Waltz with Bashir, but it gets into both. I missed that and Corpus Christi in favor of Beanpole and Those Who Remained, just because they sounded like Oscar titles. This one is over before it starts.

Preliminary prediction: Parasite

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

I Lost My Body

Klaus

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: A Netflix Christmas movie gets in over Frozen II. That is a shock. I hope Toy Story 4 wins this, but with the Globes giving the award to Missing Link, there might be something more to think about here. Is there Pixar fatigue? I could see it.

Preliminary prediction: Toy Story 4

Overall predictions: 78/109; 71.56% (73.6% in 2019)

Without the last 5 categories: 60/84; 71.42% (76.5% in 2019)

On the Big 8 categories: 35/44; 79.55% (81.4% in 2019)

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Scarlett Johansson

2. Joon-ho Bong

3. Antonio Banderas

4. Florence Pugh

5. Jonathan Pryce

6. Taika Waititi

7. Rian Johnson

8. Cynthia Erivo

9. Hildur Guðnadóttir

10. Bernie Taupin

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Uncut Gems in all categories, especially Best Actor and Best Editing

2. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood for Best Editing

3. The Farewell for Best Original Screenplay

4. Jennifer Lopez for Best Supporting Actress

5. Greta Gerwig for Best Director

6. Apollo 11 for Best Documentary Feature

7. Taron Egerton for Best Actor

8. Robert De Niro for Best Actor

9. Alita: Battle Angel for Best Visual Effects

10. Midsommar for Best Original Score

Stay tuned for our 12^th Annual Oscar Challenge!