Over the next two weeks leading up to the Oscars, I am
going to do a series breaking down each major categories individually and
giving my own Vegas-style odds for each nominee’s chances of winning. Almost
all of the relevant awards have taken place, with the exception of the Editing,
Sound, Sound Editing, Costume Designers guilds. So if you need help with the
OSCAR CHALLENGE, my advice is to just check the winners of those guilds over
the next week or so and just go with them. Or just take Life of Pi in every technical category and the odds are that you
will do just fine.
As for the screenplay categories, the Writers Guild of
America (WGA), while it has the most member crossover with the Academy, there
are always like 10 contending screenplays that are ineligible. They cannot
fully be trusted, but they are a decent indicator. Their awards take place on
Sunday, February 17th, so some of the odds could be shifted a bit,
but they aren’t going to completely shake anything up. All Oscar members vote
on the winner, not just the writers. Check out my breakdown of the category
below…
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This category seemed basically decided a couple weeks
ago. Now that Argo has steamrolled
the competition in every single awards circuit, we have a race. Oh by the way, Silver Linings Playbook took the BAFTA,
which has come to mean a lot in the past few years. It feels like the winner of
this category will be our Best Picture winner.
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy
Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Notable awards: none
Notable nominations: BAFTA, USC Scripter
Case for the Oscar: The film got so much more love from
the AMPAS than was expected. It clearly has its backing from the members, but
these types of films do not win in the screenplay categories.
Oscar Doppelganger: Winter’s
Bone, 2010. It has a similar pedigree and ultra-indie style film with a
Best Picture nom. It had almost no chance of winning in the category due to the
heavy favorites in the category.
Odds of winning: 250/1
4. Life of Pi (David Magee)
Notable awards: Satellite
Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, USC
Scripter, WGA
Case for the Oscar: David Magee is a previous nominee (Finding Neverland). His film is pure
Oscar bait, and there is a small chance that it could go all the way in several
categories. It is not really a screenplay achievement, but if it is going to
have a chance in the major categories, then this is probably the least
consequential award it could throw its way. I like the film’s chance in
Director more than Screenplay.
Oscar Doppelganger: Gladiator,
2000. It was a visual spectacle, yet only a decent achievement in screenplay.
It looks and feels like a major Oscar contender, but there are a couple clear
frontrunners in the category that prevent it from taking home the screenplay
award.
Odds of winning: 80/1
3. Silver Linings Playbook (David O.
Russell)
Notable awards: BAFTA, National Board of Review
Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, Spirit Awards,
USC Scripter, WGA
Case for the Oscar: The Weinstein factor is definitely
prevalent here. Unless there is an unforeseen sweep for the film, this is its
best chance to award David O. Russell for the first time. His speeches and
appearances in interviews have been heartfelt and emotional. It is the story of
his son, and that connection could pull a lot of votes for him. The material is
total Oscar stuff, even more so than the films in front of it. These are the
kinds of films that win.
Oscar Doppelganger: Precious,
2009. It was a great surprise on Oscar night when it won the award over the
heavy favorite Up in the Air. It was
the best chance to award the filmmaking of the indie that was all the talk
around awards time but was stuck behind a couple unstoppable forces.
Odds of winning: 4/1
2. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Notable awards: Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics,
National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics
Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, USC Scripter,
WGA
Case for the Oscar: It seemed as if there was no chance
that it could lose a couple weeks ago. The screenplay is the movie, almost
coming off like a stage play. It is very sophisticated and not really a typical
winner, but one that should be awarded for keeping our attention for 150
minutes of dialogue.
Oscar Doppelganger: Good
Night , and Good Luck, 2005. The styles are similar, being backboned by the
dialogue-heavy script. It pretty much dominated awards season until one film
rose up at the last minute and took its award. Lincoln’s chances are slightly better, though.
Odds of winning: 2/1
1. Argo (Chris Terrio)
Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics, USC Scripter
Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA
Case for the Oscar: It is the overwhelming favorite for
the top prize, so unless it is going to be the second film ever to take that
without any other wins, then this is its best chance for another award. The
script is tight and complex. The Scripter award has correlated with the Oscar
every year since 2007. There are easier films to award in contention, and an
“upset” would not be all that unexpected. However, at this point (WGA result
pending), it is the one to beat.
Oscar Doppelganger: Breaking
Away, 1979. This is a bit of a stretch, but what Argo has done is unprecedented and impossible to find a similar
case. This is a terrific screenplay that took home the award against several
more easily-digestible Oscar movies, including a courtroom drama and a lovable
comedy-drama. It is probably the favorite to win, but it is by no means a
significant favorite.
Odds of winning: 3/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This category has taken quite a few shifts throughout
awards season. Early on, it appeared that Zero
Dark Thirty was going to be a slam dunk winner. Django Unchained’s buzz has come and gone and come back again. Amour continues to defy the odds and
garner more buzz and accolades. This is always one of the coolest categories at
the ceremony.
5. Flight (John Gatins)
Notable awards: none
Notable nominations: BFCA, WGA
Case for the Oscar: This film stands almost no chance of
winning. It is a great story, but the script is sort of sloppily-written. It does
have some great characters, and the film did really well at the box office.
Gatins is an interesting guy, and his roller coaster ride to the Oscar ceremony
is really a great story. A win would be one of the biggest shockers in recent
memory, but never underestimate the popularity of Denzel Washington.
Oscar Doppelganger: The
Color of Money, 1986. This is another commercially-popular movie with a
nominated lead performance and directed by a major director. The movie was
never really looked at as one of true quality, but it did receive some love
from awards. The screenplay nomination is odd and had no chance going in, even
though the main contenders were not exactly juggernauts.
Odds of winning: 350/1
4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson, Roman
Coppola)
Notable awards: none
Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards, WGA
Case for the Oscar: Wes Anderson movies are always among those
films that are so quirky and interesting, yet they just cannot appeal to
everyone. This film is his most conventional, which makes me think that this
could be the film that the Academy could reward him for. These coming-of-age
stories are not too popular in terms of winning screenplays, but the
nominations are common. If there is a shock winner in either screenplay
category, it could and should be this.
Oscar Doppelganger: Full
Metal Jacket, 1987. The movie was made by a master of misunderstood and
niche filmmaking. After a host of popular and nominated films, he made his most
accessible movie yet. Screenplay was the film’s sole nomination, and while its
chances of winning were slim, it may have been the best chance that its writer
had at it.
Odds of winning: 50/1
Notable awards: Chicago Critics, Satellite
Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA
Case for the Oscar: Mark Boal is a past winner, and there
still may be some leftover love for The
Hurt Locker. This film is so thickly researched and thrilling, and at least
in my eyes, almost all of that credit should be given to Boal. His film missed
out on a Best Director bid, which dampens the support for the film a bit. This
screenplay is one of the contenders still, and I would not be shocked at all to
hear it called on Oscar night.
Oscar Doppelganger: Crimes
and Misdemeanors, 1989. After winning the Oscar, a few years later he is
again invited to the ceremony with another huge success and brilliant screenplay.
All of the main Best Picture contenders were in the Adapted category, so
original could have gone to almost anything. The Academy may have wanted the
writer to wait a little while for another award.
Odds of winning: 6/1
2. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Notable awards: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes
Notable nominations: none
Case for the Oscar: It has been almost 20 years since
Tarantino has won his Oscar, despite being perhaps the most popular American
filmmaker working today. He was taken down by Mark Boal in 2009, and if he
loses this time, then it will be like a Hilary Swank-Annette Bening type of
rivalry beginning to brew. Django has
the important wins so far, and since it was ineligible at the WGA, he won’t
have to worry about losing steam there. Almost any other time, he would be the
favorite. There is just one film ahead that has even more support than
Tarantino’s blockbuster.
Oscar Doppelganger: As
Good As It Gets, 1997. James L. Brooks won his Oscar more than a decade
before, and this was his best chance to take home a second for screenwriting.
He was up against a film that didn’t really have the awards or expectations as
his film, but it had more overall Oscar support and wound up taking home the
prize in what had to be an achingly close vote.
Odds of winning: 5/2
1. Amour (Michael Haneke)
Notable awards: none
Notable nominations: BAFTA
Case for the Oscar: Michael Haneke’s films have been
revolving around the Oscars for a while now, but this is easily his most
accessible movie. The film has nominations in every major category that he
could ask for, so we know the support is great. Despite being the no-brainer
for Foreign Film, this is the category that the Academy can really show their
support for the film and Haneke’s work on it. The other two realistic
contenders are past winners, and Haneke got his first nominations this year at age
70. It would seem as if it is his turn.
Oscar Doppelganger: Talk
to Her, 2002. If there had been the rules there are now back in 2002, then
these cases would be identical. Almodovar’s film was up against a couple
highly-touted writers, but his beautiful and heartbreaking film took home the
award, the first for a foreign film since 1966. Look for something similar to
happen. It may seem like an upset on paper, but given the situation and huge
love for Amour, I am almost expecting
it.
Odds of winning: 2/1
So, what do you think? What are your doppelgangers?
Request me other non-Big 8 categories if you need more help with the OSCAR CHALLENGE. Stay tuned in the next couple days for my breakdown of Best
Supporting Actress.
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