A couple months ago, this one seemed to be all but over.
Jennifer Lawrence is a superstar, and it appeared that there was no one who
could touch her. Now, after the rise of Jessica Chastain and a late push for
the sublime Emmanuelle Riva, we have a tough three-actress race. Check out the
breakdown below…
5. Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Notable awards: none
Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG
Case for the Oscar: She was in a movie that had
everything going for it, but the controversy surrounding her story restricted
its box office. It is ridiculous that this is only her second nomination, but
she will have to continue to wait for her day. The nomination is her reward.
Oscar Doppelganger: 2010 Best Actress: Nicole
Kidman. The film was not the biggest hit, but the performance was a powerhouse
that secured an easy nomination. She was popular worldwide, yet she missed out
on nominations on several occasions. She stood very little chance at winning,
not just because of the tough subject matter, but because of the incredible performances
ahead of her in much more warmly-received films.
Odds of winning: 200/1
4. Quvenzhane Wallis
– Beasts of the Southern Wild
Notable awards: none
Notable nominations: BFCA, Spirit Awards
Case for the Oscar: She was ineligible for the
SAG, so we do not quite know what her support actually looks like. The film
clearly has its following, so if there is an award in its future, why not this
one? She is going to need to tackle some huge contenders (including one some 80
years her senior), but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy. It has very little
chance of happening, but a three-way vote split would not exactly be unheard
of, resulting in those big Beasts
fans creating quite a stir in this race. Too bad we don’t get to see the final
voting results…
Oscar Doppelganger: Gabourey Sidibe – Precious. In her first career
performance, she absolutely blew away every audience member that sought out her
film. The indie film vastly overachieved in terms of nominations,which
expressed the deep-seeded love for the film overall. She gave one of the more
impressive debuts we have seen in a long time, but her chances of actually
winning were slim due to the other contenders.
Odds of winning: 75/1
3. Emmanuelle Riva
– Amour
Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, Los Angeles
Critics (tie), National Society of Film Critics
Notable nominations: BFCA
Case for the Oscar: The older voters will remember
her early work in Hiroshima, mon amour.
This is her first nomination, and the Oscar ceremony will be on her 86th
birthday (she was born in 1927, the year the first Oscar winner was released).
The film has all of the important nominations in the major categories. Oh, and
she may have given the best performance of the bunch. The theatrical release
has expanded in the past couple weeks, ensuring that her heartbreaking
performance is fresh on the Academy members’ minds when voting ends. She is up
against two juggernauts, but honestly, their careers basically just started a
couple years ago. This is the only time they will ever get to reward this
actress.
Oscar Doppelganger: Best Actor 1999: Richard
Farnsworth. He was one of those faces that audiences may recognize, but not
really know what from. He had the cool story of making an appearance in Gone with the Wind exactly 60 years
before the ceremony. His performance was endearing and heartfelt, and that
certainly struck a chord with the Academy members, even though the film was not
exactly widely-seen.
Odds of winning: 3/1
2. Jessica
Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden
Globes (Drama), National Board of Review
Notable nominations: BAFTA, SAG
Case for the Oscar: She is in a film that, perhaps
for the wrong reasons, has been in the spotlight since its inception. If the
Academy wants to award the movie, it will and should be for this performance.
Her rise to stardom has been as sudden as any that I have ever seen, and she
deserves to win. She won the important Critics Choice award, as well as getting
the most important precursor mentions. She completely steps out of her comfort
zone with this film, playing about as polar opposite from her role in The Help as possible. It may not exactly
be a typical winner, but getting some comparisons to Jodie Foster in The Silence of the Lambs says something.
Oscar Doppelganger: 2005 Best Actress: Reese
Witherspoon. She won all of the important precursors, yet had the odd case of
almost never really competing against the other major contender, due to the
fact that it was an indie and in the opposite Golden Globe category. It was not
a normal Oscar winner and the film was underwhelming in terms of nominations,
but she rode her popularity all the way to the Oscar.
Odds of winning: 9/4
1. Jennifer
Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical),
Los Angeles Critics (tie), Satellite Award, SAG
Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards
(will win)
Case for the Oscar: She has the backing of the
Weinsteins. Her film continues to place among the top of the box office week
after week leading up to the Oscar ballots being due. She was hilarious when
she hosted “Saturday Night Live”, and each one of her acceptance speeches has
been genuine, something rare for someone so new to the ceremonies. Her
performance is one that wins Oscars, and the only thing that may be going
against her is that she is only 22, so she has many years ahead of her before
she even hits her prime. They may want to make her wait, giving the award to
one of the two contenders who have been at it for several years. She is the
favorite, but it is by no means a secure favorite. Her SAG win was important,
and her film getting 4 acting noms is telling. Doubt going 0 for 4 was a joke, and the Academy will not want to do
that again.
Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actor: Jean
Dujardin. He had the advantage of not competing against the other contender for
the majority of the season. He had the Weinstein backing. His film was all over
the major awards, vastly overachieving given its small budget and ambition. He
was the favorite going into the ceremony, but by no means an overwhelming one.
He was a relative newcomer, yet his performance was just so impressive that the
Academy just could not resist (or say “no” to Harvey).
Odds of winning: EVEN
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