Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Original and Adapted Screenplay

Over the next two weeks leading up to the Oscars, I am going to do a series breaking down each major categories individually and giving my own Vegas-style odds for each nominee’s chances of winning. Almost all of the relevant awards have taken place, with the exception of the Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, Costume Designers guilds. So if you need help with the OSCAR CHALLENGE, my advice is to just check the winners of those guilds over the next week or so and just go with them. Or just take Life of Pi in every technical category and the odds are that you will do just fine.

As for the screenplay categories, the Writers Guild of America (WGA), while it has the most member crossover with the Academy, there are always like 10 contending screenplays that are ineligible. They cannot fully be trusted, but they are a decent indicator. Their awards take place on Sunday, February 17^th, so some of the odds could be shifted a bit, but they aren’t going to completely shake anything up. All Oscar members vote on the winner, not just the writers. Check out my breakdown of the category below…

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This category seemed basically decided a couple weeks ago. Now that Argo has steamrolled the competition in every single awards circuit, we have a race. Oh by the way, Silver Linings Playbook took the BAFTA, which has come to mean a lot in the past few years. It feels like the winner of this category will be our Best Picture winner.

5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, USC Scripter

Case for the Oscar: The film got so much more love from the AMPAS than was expected. It clearly has its backing from the members, but these types of films do not win in the screenplay categories.

Oscar Doppelganger: Winter’s Bone, 2010. It has a similar pedigree and ultra-indie style film with a Best Picture nom. It had almost no chance of winning in the category due to the heavy favorites in the category.

Odds of winning: 250/1

4. Life of Pi (David Magee)

Notable awards: Satellite

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: David Magee is a previous nominee (Finding Neverland). His film is pure Oscar bait, and there is a small chance that it could go all the way in several categories. It is not really a screenplay achievement, but if it is going to have a chance in the major categories, then this is probably the least consequential award it could throw its way. I like the film’s chance in Director more than Screenplay.

Oscar Doppelganger: Gladiator, 2000. It was a visual spectacle, yet only a decent achievement in screenplay. It looks and feels like a major Oscar contender, but there are a couple clear frontrunners in the category that prevent it from taking home the screenplay award.

Odds of winning: 80/1

3. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Notable awards: BAFTA, National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, Spirit Awards, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: The Weinstein factor is definitely prevalent here. Unless there is an unforeseen sweep for the film, this is its best chance to award David O. Russell for the first time. His speeches and appearances in interviews have been heartfelt and emotional. It is the story of his son, and that connection could pull a lot of votes for him. The material is total Oscar stuff, even more so than the films in front of it. These are the kinds of films that win.

Oscar Doppelganger: Precious, 2009. It was a great surprise on Oscar night when it won the award over the heavy favorite Up in the Air. It was the best chance to award the filmmaking of the indie that was all the talk around awards time but was stuck behind a couple unstoppable forces.

Odds of winning: 4/1

2. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

Notable awards: Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics, National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: It seemed as if there was no chance that it could lose a couple weeks ago. The screenplay is the movie, almost coming off like a stage play. It is very sophisticated and not really a typical winner, but one that should be awarded for keeping our attention for 150 minutes of dialogue.

Oscar Doppelganger: Good Night , and Good Luck, 2005. The styles are similar, being backboned by the dialogue-heavy script. It pretty much dominated awards season until one film rose up at the last minute and took its award. Lincoln’s chances are slightly better, though.

Odds of winning: 2/1

1. Argo (Chris Terrio)

Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics, USC Scripter

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA

Case for the Oscar: It is the overwhelming favorite for the top prize, so unless it is going to be the second film ever to take that without any other wins, then this is its best chance for another award. The script is tight and complex. The Scripter award has correlated with the Oscar every year since 2007. There are easier films to award in contention, and an “upset” would not be all that unexpected. However, at this point (WGA result pending), it is the one to beat.

Oscar Doppelganger: Breaking Away, 1979. This is a bit of a stretch, but what Argo has done is unprecedented and impossible to find a similar case. This is a terrific screenplay that took home the award against several more easily-digestible Oscar movies, including a courtroom drama and a lovable comedy-drama. It is probably the favorite to win, but it is by no means a significant favorite.

Odds of winning: 3/2

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This category has taken quite a few shifts throughout awards season. Early on, it appeared that Zero Dark Thirty was going to be a slam dunk winner. Django Unchained’s buzz has come and gone and come back again. Amour continues to defy the odds and garner more buzz and accolades. This is always one of the coolest categories at the ceremony.

5. Flight (John Gatins)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, WGA

Case for the Oscar: This film stands almost no chance of winning. It is a great story, but the script is sort of sloppily-written. It does have some great characters, and the film did really well at the box office. Gatins is an interesting guy, and his roller coaster ride to the Oscar ceremony is really a great story. A win would be one of the biggest shockers in recent memory, but never underestimate the popularity of Denzel Washington.

Oscar Doppelganger: The Color of Money, 1986. This is another commercially-popular movie with a nominated lead performance and directed by a major director. The movie was never really looked at as one of true quality, but it did receive some love from awards. The screenplay nomination is odd and had no chance going in, even though the main contenders were not exactly juggernauts.

Odds of winning: 350/1

4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards, WGA

Case for the Oscar: Wes Anderson movies are always among those films that are so quirky and interesting, yet they just cannot appeal to everyone. This film is his most conventional, which makes me think that this could be the film that the Academy could reward him for. These coming-of-age stories are not too popular in terms of winning screenplays, but the nominations are common. If there is a shock winner in either screenplay category, it could and should be this.

Oscar Doppelganger: Full Metal Jacket, 1987. The movie was made by a master of misunderstood and niche filmmaking. After a host of popular and nominated films, he made his most accessible movie yet. Screenplay was the film’s sole nomination, and while its chances of winning were slim, it may have been the best chance that its writer had at it.

Odds of winning: 50/1

 3. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Notable awards: Chicago Critics, Satellite

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA

Case for the Oscar: Mark Boal is a past winner, and there still may be some leftover love for The Hurt Locker. This film is so thickly researched and thrilling, and at least in my eyes, almost all of that credit should be given to Boal. His film missed out on a Best Director bid, which dampens the support for the film a bit. This screenplay is one of the contenders still, and I would not be shocked at all to hear it called on Oscar night.

Oscar Doppelganger: Crimes and Misdemeanors, 1989. After winning the Oscar, a few years later he is again invited to the ceremony with another huge success and brilliant screenplay. All of the main Best Picture contenders were in the Adapted category, so original could have gone to almost anything. The Academy may have wanted the writer to wait a little while for another award.

Odds of winning: 6/1

2. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

Notable awards: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: It has been almost 20 years since Tarantino has won his Oscar, despite being perhaps the most popular American filmmaker working today. He was taken down by Mark Boal in 2009, and if he loses this time, then it will be like a Hilary Swank-Annette Bening type of rivalry beginning to brew. Django has the important wins so far, and since it was ineligible at the WGA, he won’t have to worry about losing steam there. Almost any other time, he would be the favorite. There is just one film ahead that has even more support than Tarantino’s blockbuster.

Oscar Doppelganger: As Good As It Gets, 1997. James L. Brooks won his Oscar more than a decade before, and this was his best chance to take home a second for screenwriting. He was up against a film that didn’t really have the awards or expectations as his film, but it had more overall Oscar support and wound up taking home the prize in what had to be an achingly close vote.

Odds of winning: 5/2

1. Amour (Michael Haneke)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA

Case for the Oscar: Michael Haneke’s films have been revolving around the Oscars for a while now, but this is easily his most accessible movie. The film has nominations in every major category that he could ask for, so we know the support is great. Despite being the no-brainer for Foreign Film, this is the category that the Academy can really show their support for the film and Haneke’s work on it. The other two realistic contenders are past winners, and Haneke got his first nominations this year at age 70. It would seem as if it is his turn.

Oscar Doppelganger: Talk to Her, 2002. If there had been the rules there are now back in 2002, then these cases would be identical. Almodovar’s film was up against a couple highly-touted writers, but his beautiful and heartbreaking film took home the award, the first for a foreign film since 1966. Look for something similar to happen. It may seem like an upset on paper, but given the situation and huge love for Amour, I am almost expecting it.

Odds of winning: 2/1

 

So, what do you think? What are your doppelgangers? Request me other non-Big 8 categories if you need more help with the OSCAR CHALLENGE. Stay tuned in the next couple days for my breakdown of Best Supporting Actress.

Power Rankings: Most anticipated films for the rest of 2012

It has been quite a while since I have seen a really good film at the theater. My number one of the year is still God Bless America, just edging out Moonrise Kingdom. Both are totally solid 3.5 star films, but neither film should be at the top of any list in September. Maybe I just do not live close enough to a major festival, but either way I need something to look forward to. Here are a rundown of my most anticipated films for the rest of the year…

Others receiving votes: Frances Ha, Lincoln, The Man with the Iron Fists, Not Fade Away, On the Road, Promised Land, Seven Psychopaths, Zero Dark Thirty

10. To the Wonder (Terrence Malick). When Terrence Malick makes a movie, I pay attention. Each one of his five films has ended up in my top 10 of its respective year. This film does not necessarily look like one that will continue that trend, but Malick’s track record alone warrants its spot on this list. How did we get so lucky to have back-to-back years with a Malick film?! Whenever we get to its release date (who honestly knows when we can finally see it) I will be first in line.

Release date: sometime in 2012 (hopefully)

9. Wreck-It Ralph (Rich Moore). This is a very personal choice for me. It just looks like so much fun. The idea of it, the clever animation, the voice of John C. Reilly. Has there been a more consistently interesting actor in the last 5 years than Reilly? From Walk Hard to Cyrus to Cedar Rapids to Carnage. The guy is on a roll, and this looks like the animated embodiment of the actor. Much like Jack Black with Kung Fu Panda in that way, but I digress. This is definitely my most anticipated animated film since Toy Story 3.

Release date: November 2

8. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell). The trailer for this movie is pretty good, but early word on the performances and Best Picture aspirations definitely solidified its spot on this list. Winning the Audience Award in Toronto is nothing to take lightly. Toronto jumpstarted previous unknowns Precious, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, and Hotel Rwanda. This movie is going to be the real deal, and it may finally be that De Niro comeback we have all been waiting for.

Release date: November 21

7. This Is 40 (Judd Apatow). All three of Apatow’s feature films are brilliant, each ending somewhere in or near my top 10 lists. The best one is of course Knocked Up, one of the most watchable movies of the past decade. I never really thought a sequel would come, and supposedly I was “sort of” wrong. A movie about Pete and Deb is sheer brilliance, and I cannot wait to see what people like Lena Dunham, John Lithgow, and Albert Brooks are doing there.

Release date: December 21

6. Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard). I loved the last film by Audiard (A Prophet), and this one seems like a return to more of a Read My Lips (also great) type of tone. Marion Cotillard can do wonders with the right director, and Audiard just feels like the guy to pull the best out of her. Expect a career performance and possibly a second Best Actress award if enough people see it.

Release date: November 23 (limited)

5. The Grandmasters (Wong Kar Wai). I wasn’t really a fan of My Blueberry Nights, but when Wong Kar Wai is directing Tony Leung, few directors are more interesting and colorful. The story is Ip Man seems like something custom built for the duo. I am not sure if this passion piece is a sure-fire 2012 release since there isn’t a trailer yet, but it is set for a Chinese run in December. Hopefully there will be some buzz or awards that will bring it to the States as soon as possible.

Release date: sometime in 2012 (probably LA-NY for awards season)

4. The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson). When PTA makes a film (just 2 in the last 10 years), every film buff in the world hypes it to the point that it cannot meet expectations. Somehow, amazingly, PTA makes his films fresh, different, and better than anyone could have imagined. This film looks like it could feature three of the best performances of the year, and the material feels like PTA’s most audience-friendly ever. It has been called a “new American classic”. Maybe this will finally be his world-renowned film that crosses all barriers.

Release date: September 21 (expanded)

3. Smashed (James Ponsoldt). This was one of the big winners at Sundance. I do not really have a solid reason why I want to see this so much, other than I am curious to see how Jesse Pinkman, I mean Aaron Paul, comes off on the big screen. He has all the makings of major movie star if he gets the right roles. Mary Elizabeth Winstead is an Oscar-contender for this film as well. Together, they could make one of the most interesting and endearing on-screen couples in years. We will see how it turns out, but if it is anything like Ponsoldt’s debut feature Off the Black, then we are in for something special.

Release date: October 12

2. Argo (Ben Affleck). I have loved both of Affleck’s features thus far, so this was instantly on my must-see list the moment it was announced. In all honesty, it is only a matter of time before Affleck becomes one of the most respected, go-to directors in the industry. He has all the directing talent in the world, and this is easily his most ambitious film yet. The cast, the story, the cinematography all elevate this to being potentially the film to beat at the Oscars. Aside from a late-bloomer like Silver Linings Playbook or Hyde Park on Hudson, this will be the most talked-about film of the year, unless Lincoln and Daniel Day-Lewis can somehow exceed their lofty expectations.

Release date: October 12

1. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino). I really should start to disqualify Tarantino films from my lists. It is almost not fair to compare them to anything else. The original Django is a spaghetti western classic. It is like it was made just to inspire Tarantino to make another masterpiece. The trailer is brilliant. The suddenly legit actor Jonah Hill’s casting is beyond intriguing. I can’t wait to see what kind of roles Don Johnson, Franco Nero (original Django!), and Zoe Bell get. It may finally be Leo’s Oscar film. I have tried to downplay my anticipation, but screw it! Tarantino makes a film and it is instantly an event to start counting down the days to! 98 days and counting!

Release date: December 25

So what do you all think? What is on your must-see list? Let me know!

2013 Oscar Predictions: August

Since my last attempt at predictions, two of the major contenders for the top prize have gotten pushed back until 2013. The first, The Gangster Squad, supposedly got the boot because of some scene where they shoot up a theater. Just really bad timing, I guess. Not too different from The Watch being delayed and getting a new title for something that has nothing to do with the movie. The second one, The Great Gatsby, makes no sense, especially with its new home being in July. I don’t get it, but whatever. That makes the impossible task of predicting this subpar year slightly easier. Here it goes:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Lincoln - John Logan, Paul Webb, Tony Kushner – This still has to be the frontrunner for the screenplay prize. The contenders are dwindling.

2. Argo - Chris Terrio – The movie is steadily gaining buzz, and the screenplay will likely be the star of the film.

3. Life of Pi - David Magee – The material here seems very light and Oscar-friendly. It will likely be in the Best Picture field, so a screenplay nomination is assumed.

4. Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell – The trailer is lacking in areas, but the movie has a dynamite cast and a director that the Academy finally embraced. I would look for this to make a play in several categories.

5. Anna Karenina - Tom Stoppard – The trailer was popular enough, and Stoppard is an Oscar winner. If this does not flop like so many costume dramas have done recently, this will be our fifth nominee.

Others in contention

6. Beasts of the Southern Wild - Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlan – The movie was a festival hit and a modest success at the box office. Critics loved it, so if it is as popular as some people are saying, it could easily slide into this category.

7. Les Miserables - William Nicholson – Screenplays based on musicals normally aren’t nominated, but there really isn’t much competition. This could be a default nominee.

8. Great Expectations - David Nicholls – This could be a solid screenplay, but the story has been done so many times. Maybe Mike Newell’s version will be better.

9. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo Del Toro – The movie is one of the year’s most anticipated, so if it lives up to the hype, expect another dozen nominations for Jackson’s beginning to another trilogy with the same characters… yawn…

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson – The trailers have been outstanding, and he should have won a couple times already. This could be the film to beat overall.

2. Hyde Park on Hudson - Richard Nelson – The screenplay seems quite good, and the actors obviously bring their game. This could be the little film like The Artist, The King’s Speech, or Slumdog that just sneaks up on everyone and that everyone underestimates right up until it takes home all the major Oscars.

3. Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino – This seems to be the one film that has sustained anticipation and is the one sure-fire hit in the whole scenario.

4. Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal – No one really knows much about this movie, and with the way the awards seasons have gone the past few years, that is the best thing that they could ask for.

5. Love - Michael Haneke – Another Cannes winner for Haneke, but this one seems to be his real Oscar movie. Expect this to be treated like A Separation or even Pan’s Labyrinth if it is a hit at the box office.

 

Others in contention

6. Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson – The film was a pretty solid hit at the box office, but it is a really quirky story. Anderson is not normally beloved by the Academy, but this one could be different.

7. Rust & Bone - Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Craig Davidson – This movie sounds incredible, and early word on it is no different. Audiard is a genius, and this is probably his most accessible film to date.

8. The Sessions - Ben Lewin – The film sounds pretty odd, but there is always an indie wildcard in there.

9. Seven Psychopaths - Martin McDonagh – This crime story could be a big box office film, and the last film by McDonagh (In Bruges) secured a spot in a competitive screenplay category back in ’08.

10. Inside Llewyn Davis - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – The Coens are always in contention, but this seems slightly different for them. It may not get released this year, but if it does, expect some precursors to cement its place in this category.

11. Imogene - Michelle Morgan – This could be the women’s sleeper film in the category.

12. Song for Marion - Paul Andrew Williams – There needs to be a British film making noise each year, and this could be that hit overseas that converts to American audiences seamlessly.

13. To the Wonder - Terrence Malick – I feel like a moron every time I predict a Malick film to get released in any given year. This could win it all, or it could be released in 2 years. It says “completed” and set to play at festivals, but I wouldn’t put it past Malick to toy with it again for several months and delay until late 2013.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Amy Adams - The Master – Adams has been a frequent nominee since her first mention in 2005, and this promises to be a great role for her. PTA gets the best out of all of his actors.

2. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables – If her part is big enough, her nomination is obvious. She is probably the odds-on favorite right now, but I put her just behind the more likable Adams.

3. Olivia Williams - Hyde Park on Hudson – The movie looks like an actor’s film. It really depends on screentime, but I can see them all getting in.

4. Olivia Colman - Hyde Park on Hudson – If the love is as big for this movie as I am predicting, Colman can easily get a fair share of votes and get swept in. This would be like the Queen Latifah nom for Chicago.

5. Vanessa Redgrave - Song for Marion – Every year it seems like her performances are hyped and beloved, but she is always on the outside looking in. Weinstein will not let that happen to her with this film.

Others in contention

6. Sally Field - Lincoln – She is a two-time winner who has not been nominated in almost 30 years. She has the crucial wife role in the story. She could easily get nominated, but a third win for her would be a bit ridiculous.

7. Maggie Gyllenhaal - Won’t Back Down – This is going to be the very safe audience winner of the year, and Gyllenhaal looks like she could coast to another nom if it is as popular as it could be.

8. Kerry Washington - Django Unchained – Not too sure what her role is going to entail, and Tarantino has only had one actress nominated for his films, but you can never count out his crazy female roles.

9. Barbra Streisand - The Guilt Trip – This movie seems very silly, but this cast wouldn’t be signed on for just some piece of trash. Her last acting nom was in 1974. With plenty of veterans in the field, they could choose one of their most versatile ones (2 song, 2 acting, 1 producing nom).

10. Jessica Chastain - Lawless – She has about 4 films that she could secure a nom for, but this one seems to be her most interesting. Her abrupt rise to fame has been insane.

11. Gemma Arterton - Song For Marion – The Weinstein backing can make anything happen. If she has some classic scenes with Redgrave, Stamp, and the rest of the cast, her nom will become more and more likely.

12. Maggie Smith - Quartet – The film is full of beloved veterans, Smith being perhaps the star of the ensemble piece. Under the direction of Dustin Hoffman, she could deliver another incredibly memorable and likable character.

13. Kristen Stewart - On the Road – I don’t want to count her out yet, but the film is in limbo and her personal problems are probably casting an ever-darkening shadow on her chances.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained – His role looks like an instant-classic. I can’t wait to finally see him gather some long-deserved awards.

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master – What else is there to say about Hoffman? He will coast to a nomination, and with the right campaign, he could easily take the award from DiCaprio.

3. Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild – If the film can sustain momentum until awards season, then Henry will likely receive a John Hawkes-style “surprise” nomination.

4. Joel Edgerton - Zero Dark Thirty – I obviously have no clue what his character will be like, but with The Great Gatsby getting delayed, this film could finally be the one that singles out one of the best under-the-radar actors working today.

5. Samuel West - Hyde Park on Hudson – This would be a pretty random person getting nominated, but him playing royalty in a film filled with talent and great characters, he has to be on the shortlist.

Others in contention

6. Bradley Cooper - The Place Beyond the Pines – Playing opposite Gosling will make for his best work of his young and blossoming career. Derek Cianfrance directing him is so intriguing.

7. William H. Macy - The Sessions – Playing a priest in this indie darling, Macy will likely be a scene-stealer. Hard to believe he only has one nom.

8. Russell Crowe - Les Miserables – He is going to have the scenes to really shine, and if he can nail the singing…actually no, Depp got a nom for a musical. Singing probably doesn’t matter.

9. Aaron Johnson - Anna Karenina – He is a rising star, and he looked brilliant in that trailer. This would be a very cool addition to the race.

10. Michael Caine - The Dark Knight Rises – If they want to throw a bone to the overrated superhero picture, I would hope that they award Caine, the best part of the film.

11. Paul Giamatti - Cosmopolis – Cronenberg directing Giamatti. I cannot wait.

12. Robert De Niro - The Silver Linings Playbook – This promises to be his best character in several years and his best shot at a nom since…Casino? It has been a while.

13. Brian Cranston - Argo – Riding his Emmy train to an Oscar nomination is not out of the question. The Academy does like Affleck-directed performances, so he has as good of a shot as anyone.

14. David Strathairn - Lincoln – He is a well-respected actor, and with this material, he could be the subtle character out of the cast of boisterous actors that gets singled out.

15. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis – Goodman is having a bit of a comeback, and his best work is always in Coen films.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina – She is still my frontrunner, and until the release of the film proves otherwise, I can’t really see that changing.

2. Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone – Early word on the film is terrific, and Cotillard looks like she really brings it. It is too early for her to get a second win, but a nom here is very likely.

3. Laura Linney - Hyde Park on Hudson – Her part looks like one that she will nail. Even though she isn’t one of our most popular actresses, the Academy loves her.

4. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild – She could be one of our youngest nominees ever. She certainly deserves it, and if the film can sustain its buzz, it will be a no-brainer.

5. Meryl Streep - Hope Springs – I would be a fool to count her out. The film got solid marks from critics, so this is basically a slam dunk, right?

Others in contention

6. Helen Hunt - The Sessions – I am not sure how many noms this film will get, but it seems like it will be contending in almost all of them. Hunt needs a validation nom at some point.

7. Emmanuelle Riva - Love – The leads in the film got high praise at Cannes. I wouldn’t be surprised if they both wind up getting in. Or maybe just Riva, much like Julie Christie in Away from Her.

8. Viola Davis - Won’t Back Down – This could be another shot at Davis trying to weep her way to an Oscar. The material is so Oscar-friendly, that I almost feel like she should be higher on this list.

9. Naomi Watts - The Impossible – I feel like I am trying to convince myself of her candidacy every year. This sounds like pure Oscar stuff, though.

10. Abbie Cornish - The Girl – The material sounds a bit like Frozen River, but maybe that’s a good thing. Cornish will get her share of nominations in her career, but she should have at least two already.

11. Dakota Fanning - Now Is Good – This sounds very My Sister’s Keeper-ish, but it ain’t Nicholas Sparks. This could finally be Fanning’s day in the sun.

12. Julianne Moore - What Maisie Knew – At some point she will win. This is probably not that performance, but these relationship dramas are always contenders.

13. Ziyi Zhang - The Grandmasters – I want this to be a big hit, and if it is, Zhang is probably going to stand the best chance at a nom. She has been in and around the race several times.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Bill Murray - Hype Park on Hudson – He is always giving brilliant performances, yet he only has that one nom for which many people thought he should have won. He looks like he nails the part.

2. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln – I find it almost impossible to think he won’t get nominated, but three Oscar wins for him would be quite a feat. I don’t know if the Academy is ready for him to join that class.

3. Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines – With his other major film getting delayed, his chances of getting an unfortunate vote split are gone. If Cooper is in and around a nom, then Gosling will almost certainly be invited.

4. Christopher Plummer - Barrymore – Playing legendary actor John Barrymore seems like a can’t-miss for the recent Oscar winner. He needs a leading nom now, I suppose.

5. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master – This would be a great story for him to have made it all the way back after his falling out a few years ago. Every PTA film has career-best work from its lead.

Others in contention

6. Suraj Sharma - Life of Pi – This seems like an Oscar hit, and the leads (no matter how unknown) of Oscar films have had very clean track records recently.

7. John Hawkes - The Sessions – Not sure how beloved this film will be, but Hawkes has had quite a rise the past few years. This leading nom would officially make him an actor to be reckoned with.

8. Clint Eastwood - Trouble with the Curve – The Academy has definitely cooled off from the Clint love, but this role seems so perfect for him.

9. Jean-Louis Trintignant - Love – If one of the leads gets nominated, I assume the second would be swept in as well.

10. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables – He doesn’t deserve to be an Oscar nominee, but his performance here will likely have the wow moments that they are looking for.

11. Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained – Tarantino’s leads aren’t normally singled out, but this role just seems to be so flawlessly-written that it may be impossible to ignore.

12. Terence Stamp - Song for Marion – The role seems tailor-made for an actor like Stamp to get revalidated.

13. Tom Hardy - Lawless – I am unsure if this is really an Oscar film, but Hardy looks incredible in it. He will be a frequent contender every year now.

14. Richard Gere - Arbitrage - The film is steadily gaining buzz, and with Gere never being nominated, this could be the type of role that they finally wanted to see him play.

15. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook – If the film is loved and he doesn’t live up to the hype with his other film, then perhaps his leading role opposite his idol De Niro could be the spot for him to snag a nomination.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master – Had No Country not been such a unanimous hit, then PTA would have won already. This film is his best attempt at giving the Academy what they want.

2. Tom Hooper - Les Miserables – His recent win for the ridiculously popular The King’s Speech got people paying attention to him, and this film is just Oscar stuff, pure and simple.

3. Roger Michell - Hype Park on Hudson – The film is likely going to be a smash hit with the actors, so the director of those performances will likely be rewarded as well.

4. Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained – With all the crazy hype, I just can’t see this failing to the point that QT can’t get a nomination here.

5. Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty – Even if the film is not completely embraced, she will likely direct it furiously and receive a Paul Greengrass-type nomination.

Others in contention

6. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln – I would have never thought that they would have nominated War Horse and not Spielberg, but they did. Maybe they have had enough of him like they have with Clint…

7. Michael Haneke - Love – If he gets a nom here, then this could be one of the films to beat. I can’t see it happening, but it really feels like an Oscar darling.

8. Ben Lewin - The Sessions – This will be an uphill climb for him, unless his film is the unanimous indie darling with the precursors, in which case this nomination will come quite easily.

9. Ang Lee - Life of Pi – I don’t know exactly what to expect from this, but Lee has had a decent track record with the Academy.

10. Joe Wright - Anna Karenina – He still hasn’t gotten that first nom, and he probably will still have to wait, unless this just sweeps everyone off their feet.

11. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis – They are always contenders in this category.

12. Peter Jackson - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – This may be an obvious nom if the film gets the kind of reviews of its predecessors.

13. Benh Zietlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild – He could get swept in with his film with the right kind of campaign.

14. Ben Affleck - Argo – Definitely his most ambitious film yet, and maybe the one that finally gets him his deserved directing props.

15. Jacques Audiard - Rust & Bone – He is the type of director who could get a lone director nom, but the film promises to be much more of a threat.

16. Terrence Malick - To the Wonder – I don’t know what the status of the film is, but he is going to be formidable competition until he wins.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 8 will get nominated)

1. The Master – This seems like the kind of film that will secure the first place votes to take the top prize. Given a few of the previous winners, box office is not an issue in this category.

2. Hyde Park on Hudson – It is the British movie with the character drama that the Academy has fallen for recently. Look for this to make a serious push at winning.

3. Les Miserables – The musical will be a welcome addition to the race. The last one nominated in this category was Chicago.

4. Django Unchained – With the kind of box office it will receive and with all of QT’s fans, this will be an almost no-brainer nom.

5. Lincoln – It has everything going for it, other than being the odds-on favorite. The backlash has killed the last dozen of those, it seems.

6. Life of Pi – The sentimental content will likely warrant a pretty clear nomination in this category.

7. Zero Dark Thirty – This is all on potential, but I see this being one of the most talked about movies of the season.

8. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – The franchise has its fans, probably enough to grab the 5% of the votes needed.

9. Love – Foreign films have not broken through in quite some time, but if any has a chance this year, it will be Haneke’s film.

10. Anna Karenina – I feel like this could be Wright’s most popular film yet. If Knightley really is looking like she will win, I expect a nomination here.

Others in contention

11. The Sessions – With these smaller films, it is all about how it translates to the public. It needs a great box office to be considered.

12. Argo – I can see this getting one of the spots if it nails the reviews. The box office will be there, but this needs to be Affleck’s most acclaimed film to date.

13. To the Wonder – Even if it is not a big hit, there will still be tons of voters wanting Malick to get invited again and again.

14. Beasts of the Southern Wild – I am not buying that it can get in this category, but everyone else seems to be. It was a fine film, and if it can sustain that all the way until February, I will be pleasantly surprised.

15. Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens can do no wrong in the eyes of the Academy, so this has to be one of the more obvious contenders.

16. The Avengers – With The Dark Knight Rises getting mixed reactions from everywhere, I wouldn’t count out this box office megahit with the reviews to take it all the way. I doubt it will happen, but you honestly never know. We are talking about an organization that called The Blind Side one of the year’s ten best, so any film that made some money is still within the realm of possibility…

 

What do you all think? Agree/Disagree with anything? What are your predictions? Did I space on any big contenders? Let me know in the comments or hit us up on Facebook.