Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Round

           It’s playoff time!  Or as it’s known in my house, divorce month.  Before we delve into my picks for the Wild Card Weekend, let’s be entirely indulgent and review my best and worst preseason predictions based on the season preview article I wrote in September:

                                                                     

3^rd best prediction: “Josh Gordon will lead the AFC North in receiving yards.” This would have been my best prediction had I had enough balls to predict he would lead the entire league in receiving yards.  But this is a fairly impressive prediction since (A) two other AFC North receivers (Antonio Brown and AJ Green) finished in the NFL’s top five receiving yards, (B) he missed the first four games of the season, and (C) he plays for the Cleveland Freaking Browns.  As a proud owner of Gordon in three fantasy leagues this season, I'm satisfied.

2^nd best prediction: “No Colt will have more rushing yards than Arian Foster or Ben Tate.” Tate finished with 771 yards and Foster finished with 542.  The Colts’ leading rusher, Donald Brown, finished with 537.  Want another amazing statistic?  Houston and Indianapolis finished with the exact same total rushing yardage, 1743 (Indy had 409 rush attempts, Houston 414).  Additionally, both teams’ leading rusher per carry was their quarterback (Andrew Luck and Case Keenum).  One team finished 11-5 and AFC South champions, the other finished 2-14.  As David St. Hubbins once said, “It’s such a fine line between stupid and clever.”

Best prediction: “The Eagles will finish 10-6 and win the NFC East.” This prediction was about 50 percent unbridled Chip Kelly enthusiasm, and 50 percent “every other team in the NFC East sucks.” Admittedly, it was 0 percent “Nick Foles is going to throw 27 TDs and 2 Ints, including a seven-touchdown game.”  However, I did predict Philadelphia would go 5-0 in December (they finished 4-1) and that the Redskins would finish at the bottom of the division.  Quiet NFC East subplot: Do you realize that no NFC East team has finished with 11 or more wins since 2009?  Second quiet NFC East subplot: The last quarterback to win consecutive NFC East division titles was Donovan McNabb (Hint: This may have influenced my Philadelphia pick this weekend).

3^rd worst prediction: “The Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans will win their divisions.” I was definitely not alone in these predictions, and therefore I’m not too embarrassed by them.  Atlanta had never had a losing season under Mike Smith, and the Texans appeared to boast the AFC’s most balanced offense.  And admittedly, in 2013 they both went 5-16 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  But they also won a combined 19 games fewer than in 2012, and were generally atrocious all season.  They also stunk up a combined eight nationally televised prime time games, while the 12-4 Panthers and 10-6 Cardinals got a total of four. 

2^nd worst prediction: “Joe Flacco will have a better year statistically than 2012.” His 2012 numbers (when he became simply “Joe”): 10 wins, 3817 yards, 22 TDs, 10 interceptions, a Super Bowl championship.  His 2013 numbers (when he regressed to “Flacco”): 8 wins, 3912 yards, 19 TDs, 22 interceptions, zero playoff appearances, one $120.6 million contract extension.  Yikes.

Worst prediction: “Michael Vick will start all 16 games for the Eagles.” My best and worst predictions involved the same team – appropriately, it was for the same erratic team that gave up 48 points to Matt Cassel and Matt Asiata and then beat the Bears by 43 in a span of seven days.  I must have been in an altered state when writing this sentence, or simply looking for something provocative and completely untenable to proclaim a la Skip Bayless. 

            Now that I’ve earned your adamant trust with my incredible abilities to accurately predict the outcome of the NFL season, let us proceed to break down this weekend’s playoff games.

            Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 4:35pm EST, NBC.

            It’s always nice when we have precedent to base these games on: Two weeks ago, Indianapolis marched into Kansas City having gone two months without a single impressive win to speak of.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs had averaged 42 points in its past four games.  The result was one-sided: The Colts stomped the Chiefs 23-7 at Arrowhead Stadium.

            Now that the venue has shifted to Indianapolis, why should we believe the results will be any different?  Kansas City beat one playoff team all season (the Michael Vick-led Eagles in Week 3) and went 0-5 against playoff teams from the AFC.  The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game in twenty years, and almost no one on Kansas City has any real playoff experience to speak of with the exception of Alex Smith’s two January games in 2011.  And then there is Andy Reid, who hasn’t made it to the divisional round of the playoffs since 2008.  Yes, they were a top-six team offensively and defensively and had an AFC-best +18 turnover ratio; but they were also outgained by nearly 500 yards over the course of the season, and had a -3 turnover ratio two weeks ago in Indianapolis.

            Perhaps the Chiefs’ best hope is in the Colts’ unpredictability.  Indianapolis beat San Francisco, Seattle and Denver . . . but lost to St. Louis at home by 30 (they also lost to Arizona by 29, but that loss doesn’t look quite as bad in retrospect).  They held five opponents to 10 points or fewer, but also had three opponents score 38 or higher.  Another sign of hope for Kansas City is Indianapolis’ futility at running the ball.  Trent Richardson is still averaging under 3 yards per carry, and Donald Brown, while more effective, doesn’t have a game with 14+ carries.  The Chiefs are 6-0 in games where they hold opponents to under 100 yards rushing; the Colts are 2-4 in such games. 

            But really, those kind of stats are relatively insignificant in the playoffs because it is quarterbacks that take over.  Remember when the 2011 Giants entered the playoffs with the league’s worst rushing attack?  Remember when the 2010 Packers ran the ball in the postseason with an unknown rookie named James Starks?  If Indianapolis is going to win, it will be with Andrew Luck’s arm.  He doesn’t have seven game-winning drives like he did in 2012, but his completion percentage is higher, interceptions is lower, and the Colts went from 27 turnovers last season to a league-low 14 this year.  They have the best pass rusher in the NFL (Robert Mathis) who will wreak havoc against a QB sacked 39 times in 2013.  And you don’t think those mild-mannered Indianapolis fans will be pumped up for Andrew Luck’s first home playoff game?  The Chiefs have been a good story all season, but I would be surprised to see them make it to the divisional round.

            Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Kansas City 13

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2007 AFC Wild Card, San Diego 17, Tennessee 6. Do you remember this game?  Exactly, me neither.  Actually, I remember that during that Wild Card weekend, I had to drive from Eugene to Portland, meaning I would miss at least one playoff game. This was the game I chose, meaning I instead got to see this.  Good choice.  Anyway, this was Phillip Rivers’ first home playoff win against a reinvigorated defensive team that could not play from behind.  Bleh.  This wild card weekend, get your chores done Saturday afternoon before claiming the TV set for . . .

            New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 8:10 EST, NBC.

            One of two games this weekend where the more experienced quarterback is a road underdog – not a common occurrence in the NFL playoffs.

            The Saints remind me of the mid-to-late-90s Miami Dolphins.  They have a quarterback who seems to break a new passing record every week, but are unexceptional at running the ball, have a mediocre defense, and can’t win on the road.  The odds of the Saints winning four straight road games, including games in rainy Seattle and blizzard conditions in the Meadowlands . . . well let’s just say they should continue to be thankful for their Super Bowl title (something Dan Marino could never say).  But we’re not talking about a Super Bowl run – all we’re trying to predict is if this team can beat a rookie coach, his second-year quarterback, and a defense that gave up the third-most yards in the league.

            The question here really is whether statistics and conventional wisdom matter.  If they do, then the Saints should win this game.  They are the better team in virtually every significant category (with the exception of two, which I’ll get to in a second).  They played in the better division, they have more experience, and they have the better defense statistically (somehow, they’ve given up the second-fewest passing yards in the league; one year ago, they finished as the league’s second-worst).  As good as Foles’ numbers have been (27 TDs vs. 2 interceptions), Brees’ passing numbers are prolific, and when healthy, Jimmy Graham was virtually unstoppable. 

            Now let’s get to those problematic areas for the Saints.  The first one is extremely well-documented: Their road woes.  They were 3-5 away from the Superdome this year, and have not won an away playoff game under the Sean Peyton-Drew Brees regime.  This season, they were competitive in three of those road losses (the Panthers and Patriots games were lost in the final seconds), and it could be argued that all of those road losses came against quality defenses (their other two losses were against Seattle, St. Louis, and the New York Jets).  Fortunately for New Orleans, Philadelphia was only 4-4 at home, and judging by their inability to shut down the likes of Kyle Orton last week (along with the 4907 passing yards they gave up in 2013), their secondary cannot exactly be called elite.

            The second problematic area for the Saints is a little more telling: They can’t run the ball consistently.  In three of its losses, New Orleans ran for fewer than 61 yards.  In fact, throw out the Dallas game (when Mark Ingram inexplicably ran all over the porous Cowboys’ D) and the Saints didn’t have a game where they rushed for over 131 yards.  Philadelphia had nine such games in 2013, and seven of the Saints rush defense’s nine worst games in 2013 came on the road.  Conventional wisdom says that the best way to shut down a prolific passing offense is by controlling the clock, and should LeSean McCoy run wild, it could be a long day for the Saints (God I hate writing sentences like that – I feel like Talking Head Guy).

            Philadelphia is on a remarkable eight-game streak.  In going 7-1, they’ve resurrected a season which seemed doomed by a catastrophic mix of Michael Vick’s injury and Chip Kelly’s inexperience.  They’ve scored 266 points and committed five turnovers during that span.  But their defense isn’t great, and I choose to believe that when the Saints lose on the road, it is more often than not because of the good defenses they face.  This is the toughest game of the weekend to predict, but when it comes to this many unpredictable factors, you have to take experience over inexperience. 

            Prediction: New Orleans 28, Philadelphia 24

            Playoff doppelganger: 1999 AFC Wild Card, Miami 20, Seattle 17.  Gotta go back to the archives for this one, but I remember this game well.  The Dolphins, like the Saints, were lousy on the road and fairly one-dimensional, and were thought to be underdogs against an up-and-coming AFC team at home with a new coach/QB combination.   Well surprise surprise, Marino in his last season came through with one more impressive playoff win before getting demolished by 55 points on the road the following week.  Hmm.

            San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

            Sunday, January 5, 1:05pm EST, CBS.

            As a Patriots fan, this game scares me.  Either we’ll get Cincinnati in round two – a tough, physical team with a dynamic offense that already beat us earlier this season – or potentially San Diego in the AFC Championship – by that point, a surefire “team of destiny” candidate after wins over the Chiefs, Bengals and Broncos (twice). 

            I guess the underlying message of that is: both teams have talent and the potential to go deep into the postseason.  In an AFC dominated by serious questions about whether the Broncos and Patriots can overcome major injuries on both sides of the ball, Cincinnati and San Diego both boast excellent offenses with powerful running games.  And while the Bengals may have the best defense in the AFC, the Chargers are certainly the hottest team heading into the playoffs, having won four straight with major wins over Kansas City and Denver (both on the road).

            Like Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers is the second veteran QB this weekend to be an underdog on the road.  And like Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton is making his home playoff debut, still searching for his first postseason victory.  The Bengals have been spectacular at home, averaging 41.6 points in their last five home games.  They haven’t lost at home all season, and handled the likes of New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Baltimore.  And although they were mediocre on the road, going 4-4, one of those wins was crucially against San Diego, giving the Chargers their lone December loss.  Dalton threw for more touchdowns than Rivers, Tony Romo, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford.  In making their offense more vertical, Cincinnati has tried to emulate the crucial explosiveness Baltimore had in their Super Bowl run last year.  And it’s not like BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard are exactly bad running options.

            It’s tempting to believe that the Chargers have more playoff experience than the Bengals, but actually, this is their first trip to the playoffs since 2009.  And with the exceptions of Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Eric Weddle, this team doesn’t really resemble the squad that lost at home to the Jets and the Sanchize four years ago. What does make this San Diego team feel familiar is their typically erratic pre-December play; while they beat Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Philadelphia, they also lost to Houston, Oakland and Washington.  But we all know that Philip Rivers is a quarterback who relies on emotion for motivation – this is dangerous.  It boils down to whether you can stand behind a guy who acts like this.

            Thus, in Rivers’ four playoff appearances, the Chargers have been favorites twice (2006 and 2009) and underdogs twice (2007 and 2008).  They blew the games in which they were favorites, and advanced when no one believed in them – just as no one believed they could go into Denver Week 15 and beat Peyton Manning.  On the flip side, no one has ever really believed in Cincinnati, a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, and is 0-4 in the postseason under Marvin Lewis.

            This game would perhaps make a lot more sense if the events of Week 17 had not been so quirky: While both teams won pivotal home games, Dalton threw four interceptions and had a QB rating of 62.2, while the Chargers needed a miraculous field goal miss to beat the Chiefs’ second-stringers.  Thus, while both teams have obvious talent, they can also look acutely mortal.  But I lean toward San Diego for a few reasons: (A) I’d take Philip Rivers as an underdog over Andy Dalton as a favorite, (B) San Diego’s road wins have been more impressive than Cincinnati’s home wins, and (C) San Diego hasn’t played a lousy game since October 6, when they lost to Oakland.  They may have lost more games during that time, but unlike Cincinnati, they haven’t laid any stink bombs like this. 

The best case for Cincinnati is their 8-0 record at home.  As a Patriots fan who saw home playoff losses in three of the past four years, I can say 8-0 in the regular season doesn’t mean crap.  Since 2005, the recipe for winning in the playoffs has been based around momentum, emotion, the ability to win on the road, and experienced, fearless quarterback play.  Those qualities are manifested in this unlikely Chargers team – a team that should put the rest of the league on notice.

           

            Prediction: San Diego 28, Cincinnati 19

            Playoff doppelganger: 2008 AFC Wild Card Round, San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT). This year’s Chargers were 5-7 heading into December, which isn’t quite as bad as the 2008 team, which was 4-8 and four games behind division leader Denver.  After the Chargers played a spectacular December, they hosted a red-hot Colts team that hadn’t lost in two months.  The result?  Emotion over logic.

            San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers  (+3)

            January 5, 4:40pm EST, FOX.

           

            San Francisco is a highly questionable call away from having clinched the NFC’s 1 seed.  Green Bay is an epic Cowboys collapse away from being out of the playoffs entirely.  The last time a 12-win wild card team (and defending Super Bowl loser) went on the road to play an 8-win division champion, this happened.  The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, this happened.

            It could be argued that no team is playing better football than the 49ers right now.  The defense is the healthiest it has been all season, while Michael Crabtree’s return has lit a spark for the passing game.  Not that San Francisco has needed to rely on Colin Kaepernick’s arm much lately; when Kap threw for 310 yards in last week’s win in Arizona, it was his first time eclipsing 300 yards in the air since Week 1 against (you guessed it) the Packers.  Like Cam Newton, Kaepernick has been proven most effective when sitting in the pocket, but can still be lethal with the option.  In his last three road games, Kaepernick has 7 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a QB rating of 117.4

            The Packers defied all odds by surviving an 0-4-1 stretch, and rallying behind Matt Flynn to beat the Falcons and Cowboys.  After benefitting from a pathetic NFC North, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb returned Week 17 an upset the Bears at Soldier Field.  Rodgers wasn’t his normal self, but still threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns.  Now he’ll have to face a defense which played the pass exceptionally all year, and has stifled Rodgers in their last three meetings. 

            If you want to come up with reasons to pick Green Bay, you can look at the emotion of Rodgers’ return, the atmosphere of Lambeau Field, and the fact that the Packers have scored 31+ points in each of its last three games.  It’s hard to beat a team four times in a row, and Eddie Lacy wasn’t really a factor in any of the past few meetings.  Kaepernick can look vulnerable on the road (ask Seattle fans), and San Francisco doesn’t have the vertical passing game to overcome large early deficits (unless the lights go out). 

            Otherwise, the 49ers are the clear pick.  As long as they don’t have to travel to Seattle, they can beat any team in the NFL.  When San Francisco scores 23 points or higher, they are 11-0.  Green Bay allowed 11 opponents to score over 23 points, and was 3-7-1 in those games.  If anything, the tundra conditions are more conducive to the 49ers grind-it-out style, and Rodgers is not at 100 percent health.  I would be a hypocrite to pick San Diego on emotion alone and completely ignore the amazing events that have transpired for the Packers, but the 49ers are a better team than the Bengals, and Green Bay’s defense can’t stop anyone.  Plus, don’t we need at least one Colin Kaepernick-Russell Wilson playoff game?

            Prediction: San Francisco 34, Green Bay 21

            Playoff doppelganger: 2005 NFC Divisional Round, Carolina 29, Chicago 21.  Rex Grossman’s return from a season-crippling ankle injury was thwarted by Carolina’s balanced attack and Steve Smith’s spectacular receiving day.  A mismatch.

            An interesting side note: In each of the past three seasons, the Super Bowl champion has played Wild Card weekend.  And in each of the past three seasons, I stupidly picked against that team in the Wild Card round.  So a preemptive congratulations to either the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals or Packers on their Super Bowl 48 championship!

47 Player Facts about Super Bowl 47 (and Zach's Fearless Pick)

            The Super Bowl is in New Orleans this year, and will take place almost one year to the day that the New Orleans Hornets had the brilliant idea of having Will Farrell introduce the starting lineup (and little-known facts about them) in front of entertained fans.  Remember that video?  When he said Emeka Okafor majored in English and minored in love, and Jarrett Jack has a dream of becoming a rodeo clown?   Well for this year’s Super Bowl, I decided to take this one step further and include the most interesting/obscure/unintentionally funny trivia about each of the players starting this Sunday (except all of these facts are true).  And since this is Super Bowl 47, why not have 47 little-known facts?  And honestly, wouldn’t you forgive Roger Goodell if he personally hired Will Farrell (or Jeff Vuvuzela) to introduce the Super Bowl 47 rosters with these tidbits?

            Ladies and gentlemen, your Super Bowl 47 starters:

1. San Francisco LT Joe Staley loves karaoke.  Some of his favorite songs to sing are “Simple Man” by Lynyrd Skynyrd, “Hero” by Enrique Iglesias, and “A Whole New World” from Aladdin (which he once sang in a duet with Alex Smith’s wife).

                         

2. LG Mike Iupati was born in American Samoa and learned English as a second language.  He and his wife, who is a 9-time BMX bicycle world champion racer, have a son named KoaAlii’ and two dogs.

3. C Jonathan Goodwin is a classic video game aficionado.  He owns an original Nintendo system and regularly plays Super Mario Brothers, Duck Hunt, Double Dribble, Tecmo Bowl, and Baseball All-Stars.

4. Last month, RG Alex Boone requested that the San Francisco Zoo name its 3-year-old black rhino after him.  At his most recent trip to the zoo, he got to personally feed a giraffe.

5. RT Anthony Davis broke his finger in half after the 49ers beat the Saints this season.  Seriously.  Like in two pieces.  Like a stick.  Look.

6. QB Colin Kaepernick owns over 250 DVDs and loves Disney movies.

7. RB Frank Gore has nothing interesting about him.  Really.  This isn’t just a give-up.  I defy you to Google search “Frank Gore trivia” and come up with anything interesting.  He even says he doesn’t have any hobbies in this interview.  But remember, it’s those boring guys that are the most frightening.

8. RB Anthony Dixon once bailed hay as a part-time job.

9.  WR Michael Crabtree owns so many shoes that he has lost count.  He stores his shoes in his house and his parents’ garages.

10.  WR Randy Moss’ two favorite rappers are 8 Ball and Master P.

11. When TE Vernon Davis was in college, he was an art studio major.  He currently owns an interior design company, and was recently hired by teammates Ray McDonald and Dashon Goldson to redecorate their houses.

12. DE Ray McDonald says he has no hobbies except hanging out at the practice facility.  He is the only player on either team to have won a high school championship, college championship (with Florida), and potentially a Super Bowl championship.

13.  DE Justin Smith loves to eat sushi before playing.  His favorite cartoon character is Superman.

14. NT Isaac Sopoaga’s uncle is the first government official in the history of American Samoa to have a PhD.

15. 30 years ago, OLB Ahmad Brooks’ father, Perry Brooks, won Super Bowl XVII as a DT for the Washington Redskins.

16. OLB Aldon Smith did not play an organized sport until he was 15 years old.

17.  ILB NaVorro Bowman was born on the exact same day and year as Percy Harvin.

18.  ILB Patrick Willis grew up a Cowboys fan and had a passionate hatred for the 49ers.

19.  Every morning, CB Carlos Rogers neatly folds his clothes and bedsheets and places them at the foot of his bed.  He routinely cleans dust from under his bed.

20.  CB Tarell Brown was fined $5,250 by the NFL this season for wearing these redsleeves under his jersey.  He tweeted the letter the NFL sent him, but in doing so, accidently also tweeted out his username and password.

21. When he was 6 years old, SS Donte Whitner was seriously injured after getting run over by a car.  For the next three months, he wore a body cast and his mother carted him around in a wagon.

22. FS Dashon Goldson calls his mom on the phone at least once every day.

23. From 1997 to 1998, K David Akers worked as a substitute teacher at Westport Middle School in Louisville.  Later, after his wife was relocated to Georgia, he worked part time as a waiter at Longhorn Steakhouse.

24.  Baltimore LT Michael Oher apparently did not like the movie The Blind Side because it portrayed him as lacking knowledge about football.

25. LG Marshal Yanda’s mom runs a day care in Iowa City, Iowa.  His sister, Katie, is the hotel director at the Grand Falls Casino Resort in Larchwood, Iowa.

26.  C Matt Birk is a terrible dancer.

27. RG Bobbie Williams was originally drafted by the Eagles in 2000.  Of all the offensive linemen drafted during Andy Reid’s tenure, Williams has had more starts than anyone (although only 12 of his 136 starts were with Philadelphia).

28. RT Kelechi Osemele went to Iowa State University, blasted the Cyclones’ fight song at Super Bowl 47 media day, and chides Iowa Hawkeyes alum Marshal Yanda whenever he can get a chance.

29.  WR Anquan Boldin collects and takes care of turtles. 

30. WR Torrey Smith’s favorite pastime outside of football is fishing.

31.  TE Dennis Pitta is married to the sister of the wife of Arizona Cardinals’ backup QB Max Hall.

32. QB Joe Flacco majored in accounting. This is a picture from his wedding in 2011.

33. RB Ray Rice goes to bed every night no later than 9:30pm.

34. In spite of going undrafted and being cut twice, FB Vonta Leach is now the highest-paid fullback in the NFL.

35. DE Parnell McPhee went to the same high school as Anquan Boldin.

36. Believe it or not, DE Haloti Ngata has always lived in the continental United States.

37. NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu missed his last college game, the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl, as a result of the NCAA suspending him for buying two math books for his younger brother using scholarship money.

38. OLB Courtney Upshaw grew up in a house with no running water or electricity.  When he arrived at the University of Alabama, he had practically nothing except for the clothes he was wearing.

39.  OLB Paul Kruger may have the most awesome tee-shirt in the history of the universe.

40. Like Michael Crabtree, ILB Dannell Ellerbe owns more shoes than he can keep count of.  Currently, he is running out of closet space.  When he buys a new pair, he’ll post pictures of them to his Instagram account (here’s the link).

41. ILB Ray Lewis’ first car was a beige 1994 Honda Accord.  His favorite movies include Scarface, New Jack City, House Party 3, and Friday.

42. CB Corey Graham recently called the prospect of a Destiny’s Child reunion “amazing.”

43. CB Cary Wiliams is one of two alumni from Division II Washburn University (Topeka, KS) playing in the Super Bowl (the other being Michael Wilhoitle of the 49ers).  The University of Alabama also has two alumni playing in Super Bowl 47. 

44. Along with his business partner, former Eagles and Texans RB Ryan Moats, SS Bernard Pollard has recently released an iPhone app called Bourre.  The app is based on a well-known card game frequently played by professional athletes.  It is probably most famous for being the game that led to an altercation between Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton, leading to Arenas bringing four handguns into the locker room.

45. While at the University of Miami, FS Ed Reed was the Big East champion in the javelin.

46. K Justin Tucker can rap and beatbox.  His favorite TV network is the Discovery Channel.

And one final tidbit . . .

47.  Growing up, the Harbaugh brothers’ favorite TV show was The Rockford Files.

            OK, OK, I fudged a little on that last one.  We know that Jim loved The Rockford Files but John has never mentioned it.  But you have to figure that at some point on those beloved camping trips that have been widely reported this week, where Uncle Bob brought his plug-in TV, Jim most have tried to sell his younger brother on the suave sophistication of James Garner.   According to Wikipedia, James “Jimmy” Scott Rockford lived in a mobile home in southern California, wore off-the-rack clothing, and does his best to avoid fights.  Who wouldn’t watch this show that 50 percent of the country and 100 percent of the Ravens and 49ers lineups have never heard of?  Also according to Wikipedia, James Garner’s real-life brother, Jack, made 23 appearances on the show, ranging from a policeman, gas station attendant, and a stranger in the bathroom.

            This might have been a bigger story had there not already been about 4,000 more interesting storylines heading into this Super Bowl.  Will Ray Lewis pull an Elway-Bettis-Strahan-sorta MJ and go out on top?  Will Colin Kaepernick win the Super Bowl in his 10^th start as QB?  (Based on #6 on the above list, he’ll be the first to announce merrily that he’s going to Disneyland).  Will Ray Lewis creatively incorporate deer antlers into his dance?  (Too soon).  Will Paul Kruger and Justin Smith get into a no-holds-barred, WWE-style brawl that will inevitably involve chair smashing and missing teeth?  Will it be revealed that Bernard Pollard is actually a cyborg created by agitated post-spygate New York fans to systematically destroy Boston sports?  Will it be revealed that Jim Caldwell has actually been dead since 2010?  Will Michael Crabtree and Dannell Ellerbe (#9 and 40) miss the kickoff because they were distracted at the Bourbon Street Foot Locker?  And most importantly, which coach will give his brother an atomic wedgie during the postgame handshake? 

            And somehow in the middle of this chaos, there is a game to be played.  It’s an interesting matchup that hopefully won’t be as boring as the Thanksgiving night Harbowl last year (16-6 Ravens, and believe me, it wasn’t just the tryptophan that made viewers fall asleep).  But for me, the result is pretty clear.  In fact, I don’t even know why people are debating this, except that NFL Network needs something to broadcast for the 320 hours leading up to the game.  The result will be that by the end of Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens will be Super Bowl champions.  If you don’t want to read any more of my stupid writing, just consider these brief facts:

           

-          Combined playoff wins by their quarterback: Baltimore 8, San Francisco 2.

-          Combined starting record of quarterback (including postseason): Flacco 62-30, Kaepernick 7-2.

-          Combined record of Harbaughs (including postseason): John 62-30, Jim 27-8-1.

-          Combined playoff wins of opponent quarterbacks faced in this postseason: Baltimore 26, San Francisco 4.

-          Against common opponents: Baltimore beat the Giants 33-14.  San Francisco lost to the Giants (at home) 26-3.  Baltimore beat the Patriots twice.  San Francisco beat the Patriots, but nearly blew a 28-point second half lead.

-          Performance of kickers (including postseason): Justin Tucker (23 years old) 91.4% FG, David Akers (38 years old) 68.1% FG.

-          Pre-Super Bowl controversy: Ravens (Ray Lewis PED scandal which has been continuously dismissed), 49ers (Chris Culliver homophobic comments – would not have been nearly as big a story had it happened on a team not playing in San Francisco).

You can chart various statistics indicating why one team should beat the other.  But more

than any Super Bowl I can remember, this is a matchup that’s more about the “eye test.”  Which team has looked better?  Which team looks more confident?  Which team looks like they should be more feared?  Sometimes that kind of empirical logic can be flimsy in the era of sabermetrics, but it’s pretty clear to me that the Ravens are the answer to those questions.  As a Patriots fan, I knew that Flacco would burn us with long completions to Torrey Smith sooner or later.  I knew that Bernard Pollard would violate our receivers, and Ngata and Kruger would be a force on the defensive line.  And after the Denver game – a game where at various points they seemed grossly overmatched, and yet never allowed the deficit to swell larger than a single touchdown – how do can you possibly declare this team dead?  If I were a 49ers fan, I wouldn’t feel comfortable with any lead less than 14 points.

            We can talk about the vaunted San Francisco defense, but the truth is, in the last two playoffs, they’ve surrendered an average of 27.5 points and 413.25 total yards per game.  Two weeks ago, when they were on the road in a dome, they gave up 477 total yards to the Falcons, and for a while, Matt Ryan was on pace for a 500-yard passing day.  Kaepernick has remained cool under pressure (including deficits of 14-7 to the Packers and 17-0 to the Falcons), but has been helped immensely by a defense that has shut down teams in the second half.  In their three playoff games this year, the Ravens have outscored opponents 52-17. 

            I actually really love the 49ers and have rooted for them most of the year, but the 4-point spread and the near-universal picks by the sports world talking heads would make me queasy.  It felt like very few people were talking about San Francisco heading into the playoffs.  Most people had memories of the embarrassing 29-point loss to the Seahawks and the fact that Colin Kaepernick was basically an unproven rookie.  Then came the Green Bay game (against whom most people believed the Niners would lose to) and Kaepernick and the offense exploded . . . and suddenly they’re four-point favorites over a team that just beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road?  Against a team that held them to 170 yards and 6 points last year?  Against a team that is dead-set on seeing the franchise’s all-time greatest player end his career as a champion? 

            Both of these teams are talented and whoever wins deserves to be champion.  It wasn’t that the Broncos, Patriots, and Falcons were upset – they were beat by legitimately better teams.  But the Ravens’ path has been longer, more impressive, and more deserved.  You don’t get this far and suddenly stumble at the finish line (unless you’re the 2007 Patriots).  The journey is nearly over for Ray, and like he did 12 years ago and like he’s done so many times, it is his time to dominate.  And it doesn’t take “Jimmy” Scott Rockford to figure out that mystery.

            Prediction: Baltimore 27, San Francisco 21.

Best ever.

Some Super Bowl over/under/whatever prop bets:

Number of CBS commercial breaks: 4,177½

Number of advertisements for CBS comedies: 900½

Number of bland, inseparable CBS comedies that are actually the same show: All of them

Number of stupid comments by Phil Simms in the fourth quarter: 68

Number of Papa Johns pizzas personally delivered by Peyton Manning and Papa: 2½

Number of split-screens of John and Jim Harbaugh: More than Peyton and Eli.

Length of Alicia Keys’ National Anthem: Shorter than Ray Lewis’ emotional postgame interview with Sal Paolantonio.

Brothers who could beat up the Harbaughs: The Affleck brothers.

Brothers the Harbaughs could beat up: The Coen brothers, the Van Gundys, Frasier and Niles Crane

Other illegitimate Harbaugh brothers not mentioned by the media: Marky, Ricky, Danny, Terry, Mikey, Davey, Timmy, Tommy, Joey, Robby, Johnny, and Brian.

Who would win the 2012 Super Bowl of movie taste between Terry and Todd: Todd, since Terry liked Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, and The Avengers so much. But if it was 2011, it would be Terry, who didn’t have Margaret on his list because he had the good sense to not see it.