Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2015: Wild Card Round

            It is football in January, which can only mean three things: Jesus, girls, and Marcus Mariota. January also means Oscar nominations, and if 2014 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and his calf injury doesn't get nominated this year, it will be the snub of the century.  But for those of us who cannot wait until January 12 at 8:30pm EST, there does happen to be an interesting slate of NFL games this weekend which can pass the time without too much anxiety.  So in honor of the greatest football moment this side of the butt fumble, let’s break down this weekend’s Wild Card matchups -- all featuring teams that would probably lose to the Ducks, in my completely unbiased opinion:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6)

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm EST, ESPN.

            Take your pick for the more improbable storyline: On one side, you have a team that finished 2-4 down the stretch, hasn’t scored over 18 points since November 9, was outgained by 800 yards on the season, and is led by their fourth-string QB and second-string RB.  On the other side, you have the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record (a team that went 63 days without winning a game), a QB still recovering from a bizarre car crash, and a franchise that hasn’t won a home playoff game in 11 years.

            Carolina actually had a good season – if you conveniently omit October and November from the equation.  Those two months aside, the Panthers went 6-2 and in those six wins allowed a paltry average of 10.1 points.  And say what you will about the pathetic NFC South, the Panthers actually played formidably against quality opponents.  They beat Detroit by 17, tied Cincinnati, and gave up the game-winning touchdown to the Seahawks with under a minute remaining.  In their current four-game winning streak, the running game has come alive, with Jonathan Stewart averaging just over 400 yards per game.  Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen both gained over 1,000 receiving yards on a team that didn’t particularly like to pass, and they can both rumble over even the best defenders.  And while it would be hard to mistake the 2014 Panthers defense for their excellent 2013 unit, Carolina held half of its opponents to under 19 points and only allowed only three 300-yard passers all season.  I somehow doubt that number will reach four after Saturday.

            The case for Arizona is that Bruce Arians is a brilliant coach.  And that’s about it.  Ryan Lindley did look noticeably better against a depleted 49ers secondary last week, but the Cardinals still only scored 17 points and Lindley had three picks.  If that’s the best your quarterback can play, are you really telling me there is no better option?  But the problem isn’t only at QB; the Cardinals were only 4-4 on the road this year with their one impressive victory coming against a Tony Romo-less Cowboys.  Even with Andre Ellington playing 12 games, Arizona had the second-worst rushing offense in football and gave up the fourth-most passing yards.  I imagine it must be tough for Cardinals players to keep composure and focus in the midst of such a collapse; on November 30, when Arizona was 9-3, could they ever have imagined traveling on the road to play 3-8-1 Carolina?

            So the real question is how did Arizona ever make the playoffs in the first place?  They were 6-0 under Carson Palmer, 5-3 under Drew Stanton, and 0-2 under Lindley (which brings his career NFL record to 1-7).  With Stanton ruled out for Saturday’s game, there seems little hope Arizona can muster much of anything.  But you know what?  This isn’t the first time people have said this about the Cardinals.  Remember the 1998 “Cardiac Cards” team with Jake Plummer that won all their games in the last few seconds and snuck into the playoffs?  No one thought they’d do anything, and lo and behold, they stunned Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith in Big D.  Remember the 2008 Cardinals squad which people claimed was the worst team ever to make the playoffs?  We all know what happened after that.  So here we are yet again, with a well-coached Cardinals team that did win 11 games and is a 6-point underdog to a team that won four fewer games and a super-hyped QB who tellingly has yet to win a playoff game. 

            So that’s my best case for the Cardinals – that as a franchise, they’re used to being significant underdogs.  Hell, I still remember thinking that the ’08 team didn’t have a chance against Matt Ryan as a rookie.  I was wrong, and so was the rest of the country.  So keep belittling them if you want to.  But I don’t think anyone’s going to be wrong about this one.

Prediction: Carolina 31, Arizona 10.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2012 NFC Wild Card, Green Bay 24, Minnesota 10.  This was the season where child abuser contrite and honorable Adrian Peterson ran for 2,000 yards and the Vikings snuck in the playoffs with Mr. Samantha Ponder at QB.  Then the Vikings did the most Vikings-like thing imaginable and put in converted WR Joe Webb at starting quarterback against the Packers at Lambeau Field. Because that was such a great idea.  Webb finished 11/30 for 180 yards and the Vikings lost by two scores in a game more boring than a Leslie Frazier press conference.  The only thing I really remember about this game is that NBC inexplicably made this their prime time game of Wild Card weekend.  If we’re living in a world where no one at NBC was fired for that inexcusable move and Ryan Lindley is the starting quarterback of a playoff team, then there really is no hope for humanity.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (- 3)

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm EST, NBC.

            The obvious candidate for NBC’s prime time game – one of the best modern rivalries in sports, three combined titles in the last ten years, and the serious potential for brawls and punches polite jostling and great family-friendly entertainment.  Inexplicably, the two previous 2014 games where these two teams squared off were outright disappointments – a 20-point Ravens victory in Baltimore on Week 2, and a 20-point Steelers victory in Pittsburgh on Week 9.  These games used to always be close and contentious;

            The “eye test” would certainly seem to favor the Steelers here.  They’ve had a tremendous December going 4-0, with Roethlisberger throwing a lone pick in 137 pass attempts and Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown turning into 2014’s own Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt.  They have some impressive wins on their resume too (besides the Baltimore win): Indianapolis, Carolina, Cincinnati (twice), Kansas City, and Houston.  But when you look deeper, you see some inexplicable losses (Tampa Bay and New Orleans at home, along with the Jets and Browns) and a defense that gave up 4,243 passing yards and 30 TDs.  The Steelers strength is unquestionably their offense, and they are 9-1 when scoring 27 points or more.  But that also means they are 2-4 in games scoring 26 points or less, and with Bell status doubtful for Saturday, suddenly 27 points may seem like a tall order, even at home.

            For a team historically considered so similar to the Steelers (great defense, strong running game, big boring QB), it’s a little remarkable how different the 2014 Ravens’ problems are from the Steelers.  Unlike Pittsburgh, Baltimore has been riddled with injuries all season, not just this past week.  Their offense has been horribly shaky down the stretch.  If you take away their 4^th quarter collapse against the Chargers (a game that, with under three minutes remaining, Baltimore had a 99.7 percent chance of winning), here’s how the Ravens offense has fared down the stretch in what should have been a pretty easy December: 28 points against Miami, 20 points against Jacksonville, 13 points against Houston, and 20 points against Cleveland.  Justin Forsett was a nice comeback story for most of the season, but looked downright ordinary in December and has only one touchdown since Thanksgiving. But the defense has played tough (or is it that opposing offenses have been weak?) and the Ravens are one of three teams in the NFL to be in the top ten in scoring offense and defense (the Patriots and the Seahawks are the other two).  Baltimore is 8-0 in games allowing under 17 points.

            I tend to think both of these teams are slightly overrated, due in large part to playing the NFC South and AFC South divisions and having the cache of winning recent Super Bowls.  I don’t see the winner of this game coming away from Foxborough or Denver victorious.  So in light of Baltimore’s offensive woes and Pittsburgh’s erratic play as well as the uncertain status of Bell, this game is pretty evenly matched.  But I’m picking the Ravens in this game, and here are a few reasons why: Baltimore ranked 2^nd in the NFL in sacks (49), while Pittsburgh ranked 26^th (33); even with Bell in the lineup, Pittsburgh was the definition of a mediocre running team, ranking 16^th, while Baltimore was a top-four defense against the run.  And while the Ravens have looked vulnerable against the deep pass, I’d still take Lardarius Webb, Darian Stewart and Matt Elam over Brice McCain, Mike Mitchell, and Troy Polamalu.  Or maybe the real point is, neither unit is exceptional.

            The real reason I like Baltimore? (SPOILER ALERT) I like all the home teams this weekend.  As everyone knows, one of the cardinal rules of NFL playoff gambling is that at least one road team wins in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds.  The Ravens are experienced, know how to win in Pittsburgh, and certainly look more poised than Arizona, Detroit, and Cincinnati to pull an upset over a Pittsburgh team missing their most dynamic offensive weapon. We all know what happens when Roethlisberger is put under pressure, and if the Ravens’ offensive line can protect Forsett, it’s worth remembering that the Steelers are 1-4 when allowing over 140 yards on the ground.  Plus, as a pessimistic Patriots fan, I really don’t want to see the Ravens in the playoffs again.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20.

Playoff doppelganger: NFC Wild Card Round, 2004, St. Louis 27, Seattle 20.  The 8-8 Rams weren’t really good at much (a -73 point differential and a ridiculous -24 turnover margin), but they did know how to beat the 9-7 Seahawks, and in 2004 defeating Seattle constituted for 1/3 of the Rams’ victories for the season.  It may come as a shock to the Seahawk fan base (for whom nothing interesting ever happened in football or in life prior to 2010), but the St. Louis-Seattle divisional rivalry was once pretty exciting back in the days when the NFC West was terrible.  Surprisingly few people picked the Rams back then and surprisingly few people are picking the Ravens this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3½)

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm EST, CBS.

            It’s a matchup of the two kings of wild card weekend!  This is the third straight year (and fourth in the last five years) that the Colts play in the wild card round and the fourth consecutive year (and fifth in the last six years) for the Bengals.  Their records in the wild card round since 2009?  Indy is 1-2 and Cincy is, as we all know, 0-5.  Isn’t it amazing to think that without that epic Andy Reid-Alex Smith 28-point collapse last year, these two teams would be 0-8 in playoff games the last five years?

            Considering both franchises’ underwhelming recent performances in the postseason, it should not come as a surprise that of all the games this weekend, this is the one I am least looking forward to.  Simply put, neither team merits that much excitement (I wish I could say that with each of their combined playoff experience the winner is primed for a deep run, but the talent simply isn’t there).  The Colts are the very definition of Bill Simmons’ category of the “good bad team”: A team that beats up on lousy teams (Washington, Cleveland, the Giants) while playing in an even lousier division (Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville) and loses to good teams (Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England).  And “loses” is an understatement – they lost those three games by a combined 74 points.  We know about Andrew Luck being a spectacular quarterback and even Trent Richardson quietly having a competent season by somehow averaging over 3 yards per carry and only having two fumbles.  When I look at their schedule, I see only two impressive wins by Indianapolis: A 20-13 home victory over the Ravens in Week 5 and (you guessed it) a 27-0 thrashing of Cincinnati at home in Week 7.

            So if Indy beats up on the bad teams but can’t beat the good ones, the only real question of this game is whether Cincinnati is a good team or not.  To help answer this question, I took a trip to the archives, looked at some of my previous previews of Wild Card weekend, and reexamined what I said about the Bengals.  Here is what I found:

2012: “They went 0-7 against playoff teams this year; they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991 and have never won a postseason game on the road; since November 6, they’ve won one road game, and it was against the Rams; they lost to the Texans at home on December 11, and gave up 300 passing yards to T.J. Yates.  Oh, and they’re the Cincinnati Bengals.”

2013: “Are [the Bengals] winning in spectacular fashion?  Not exactly. The offensive line has surrendered 46 sacks, which makes J.J. Watt fans understandably salivate.  But A.J. Green (1,350 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns) is a huge receiving target, and Andy Dalton threw more touchdowns than Schaub, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers . . . The “rematch” factor will undoubtedly favor the Bengals, who are still bitter after last year’s 31-10 defeat, and are desperately seeking their first playoff win since 1991 (Andy Dalton is also no longer a rookie).”

2014: “No one has ever really believed in Cincinnati, a franchise that hasn’t won a game since 1991, and is 0-4 in the postseason under Marvin Lewis . . . The Best case for Cincinnati is their 8-0 record at home.  As a Patriots fan who saw home playoff losses in three of the past four years, I can say 8-0 in the regular season doesn’t mean crap.  Since 2005, the recipe for winning in the playoffs has been based around momentum, emotion, the ability to win on the road, and experienced, fearless quarterback play.”

            You’ll have to excuse me for sounding like a broken record.  But you also gotta admit, that last sentence is pretty darn accurate and predicting San Diego to go into chilly Cincinnati and beat the Bengals by multiple scores last January was one of the smartest picks I’ve ever made in this column (crucially en route to my 4-0 record last year’s wild card weekend).  So is there anything to add to this year’s description of the Bengals?  Not really.  Jeremy Hill has looked really good.  Before dropping last weekend’s game in Heinz Field, the Bengals had won four straight road games (albeit against New Orleans, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland).  Cincinnati is 9-0-1 when scoring 22 or more and 8-0 when allowing under 23 points.  Their only impressive wins were their season sweep of Baltimore and their mildly flukish Monday night win against the Broncos.

            Cincinnati has all the talent to beat the Good Bad Colts, but they won’t because Andy Dalton doesn’t win big games and Marvin Lewis is the Marty Shottenheimer of this generation.  Indy has looked shaky, but let’s remember that they clinched the AFC South practically in September and if you take out the Dallas fiasco, the Colts won five of their final six games.  I get the sense that #ChuckStrong and company have pulled a Dwayne Wade and have checked out for much of the season in preparation for the playoffs (that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll play well).  The best case for Cincinnati is that Andy Dalton likes playing 1pm Sunday games and they have to win a playoff game at some point, right?  Even Susan Lucci eventually won an Emmy. The best case for me is that the winner of this game flies to Foxborough.

Prediction: Indianapolis 37, Cincinnati 21.

Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Wild Card, Indianapolis 49, Denver 24.  The Jake Plummer-era Broncos are the best parallel to the Andy Dalton-era Bengals: A borderline competent quarterback incapable of reaching the next level but buoyed by good coaching, a strong running game and an above-average regular season defense.  And Andrew Luck, like Peyton Manning early in his career, feasted on bad teams and couldn’t beat the good ones like New England and Pittsburgh.  In this game, Reggie Wayne had 10 receptions for 221 yards and two scores; last year in the Wild Card round, T.Y. Hilton had 13 receptions for 224 yards and two scores.  Andrew Luck has both of them at his arsenal.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7½)

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm EST, FOX.

            It wouldn’t feel right watching this game without turkey, stuffing, and gravy, but at the same time, it doesn’t really feel right watching this game, period.  The Cowboys didn’t have another December collapse?  The Lions won 11 games with a 22^nd ranked offense and 3^rd ranked defense?  Either Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford will emerge from a playoff game victorious?  Something in the universe feels awry.  What happened to the annual Packers-49ers or Eagles-Saints wild card game? 

            The case for the Cowboys: They played December like a desperate Mountain West college team making their case to be in the BCS title game (scoring 41, 38, 42, and 44 points in each game respectively); their offensive line was so outstanding that it propelled Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray into legitimate MVP candidates (why giving a collective MVP to the Dallas offensive line was never a serious discussion confounds me; this is the same league that once gave MVP to a kicker); the Dallas defense ranked second in total takeaways with 31; they went undefeated on the road, something only five other teams have ever done in NFL history.  Each of those teams at very minimum advanced to the Super Bowl.

            This means that, strangely enough, homefield advantage could be anything but advantageous to Dallas.  The Cowboys went 4-4 at home, but two of those losses occurred when Romo was injured and a third was on Week One.  Thus, the only loss that adequately demonstrates Dallas’ weaknesses was their Thanksgiving Day 23-point thrashing at the hands of Mark Sanchez and the Eagles.  So how did Philadelphia win that game?  The Eagles stacked the line of scrimmage and pressured Romo relentlessly, resulting in two interceptions and only 73 rushing yards for Murray (his lowest total of the season when healthy).  Philadelphia’s up-tempo offense converted 8 third downs and ran for 256 yards on the ground. 

            Therefore, the steps to beating Dallas is relatively simple: Successfully run the ball (the Cowboys are 1-3 when allowing over 123 rushing yards); force turnovers (the Cowboys are 3-4 when turning the ball over 2 or more times; they are 9-0 in all other games); and hold Dallas to under 20 points (the Cowboys are 0-4 in such games).  It’s not rocket science.  But the problem is that successfully achieving those things is easier said than done, and Detroit doesn’t exactly appear to be the best team to take Dallas down.

            To be fair, the Lions look surprisingly formidable on paper: They had the third-best scoring defense in football and held all but five opponents under 17 points.  Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are finally healthy (think for a moment how much more amazing that sentence would have sounded 7-8 years ago) and Jim Caldwell knows how to win in the playoffs.  Furthermore, Tony Romo has inexplicably struggled against the Lions, going 1-3 in his career against Detroit.  In the last two Detroit-Dallas games, the Lions overcame second-half deficits of 24 and 10 points respectively, and Megatron had a total of 425 receiving yards.  And even though Stafford has a record of 0-1 in the postseason, it’s only one fewer win than Romo’s record of 1-3.

            But then you have to step back and look at the most telling statistic of Stafford’s career – a stat which was repeatedly brought up by Joe and Troy in last week’s loss to the Packers: In road games against teams above .500, Stafford has a lifetime record of 0-16. Yikes.  Ben Roethlisberger and Meryl Streep Aaron Rodgers won Super Bowls as 6 seeds.  Joe Flacco and Eli Manning had to make epic road trips to win their titles.  Peyton and Tom, the same (maybe someday the most recent Super Bowl winning QB will actually have to win a meaningful playoff game on the road). The point is this: Dallas and Detroit both possess individual components of what could potentially make a championship team – the Cowboys’ offensive line, the Lions’ defensive line, and Dez Bryant and Megatron.  Both have the ability to clinch a Super Bowl appearance and maybe even win a title.  The difference is that one of these teams knows how to win on the road, while the other team still has not figured it out (and frankly, they haven’t figured it out since the days of Bobby Layne).  Don’t overthink this one.

Prediction: Dallas 35, Detroit 17.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2009 NFC Wild Card, Dallas 34, Philadelphia 14.  You may not remember this, but the 2009 Cowboys also went into the playoffs red-hot after beating the 13-0 Saints in New Orleans and shutting out the Eagles in the season finale.  The only real memorable thing about Tony Romo’s lone playoff victory was dog abuser rehabilitated Michael Vick throwing his first touchdown pass in three seasons.  The excitement over Romo exorcising his postseason demons was short-lived, however, as Dallas went to Minnesota the next week and lost by 31.  I somehow don’t see a repeat of that happening this time.

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Angry that I did not meet my quota of Tom Brady references?  Write below.

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Round

           It’s playoff time!  Or as it’s known in my house, divorce month.  Before we delve into my picks for the Wild Card Weekend, let’s be entirely indulgent and review my best and worst preseason predictions based on the season preview article I wrote in September:

                                                                     

3^rd best prediction: “Josh Gordon will lead the AFC North in receiving yards.” This would have been my best prediction had I had enough balls to predict he would lead the entire league in receiving yards.  But this is a fairly impressive prediction since (A) two other AFC North receivers (Antonio Brown and AJ Green) finished in the NFL’s top five receiving yards, (B) he missed the first four games of the season, and (C) he plays for the Cleveland Freaking Browns.  As a proud owner of Gordon in three fantasy leagues this season, I'm satisfied.

2^nd best prediction: “No Colt will have more rushing yards than Arian Foster or Ben Tate.” Tate finished with 771 yards and Foster finished with 542.  The Colts’ leading rusher, Donald Brown, finished with 537.  Want another amazing statistic?  Houston and Indianapolis finished with the exact same total rushing yardage, 1743 (Indy had 409 rush attempts, Houston 414).  Additionally, both teams’ leading rusher per carry was their quarterback (Andrew Luck and Case Keenum).  One team finished 11-5 and AFC South champions, the other finished 2-14.  As David St. Hubbins once said, “It’s such a fine line between stupid and clever.”

Best prediction: “The Eagles will finish 10-6 and win the NFC East.” This prediction was about 50 percent unbridled Chip Kelly enthusiasm, and 50 percent “every other team in the NFC East sucks.” Admittedly, it was 0 percent “Nick Foles is going to throw 27 TDs and 2 Ints, including a seven-touchdown game.”  However, I did predict Philadelphia would go 5-0 in December (they finished 4-1) and that the Redskins would finish at the bottom of the division.  Quiet NFC East subplot: Do you realize that no NFC East team has finished with 11 or more wins since 2009?  Second quiet NFC East subplot: The last quarterback to win consecutive NFC East division titles was Donovan McNabb (Hint: This may have influenced my Philadelphia pick this weekend).

3^rd worst prediction: “The Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans will win their divisions.” I was definitely not alone in these predictions, and therefore I’m not too embarrassed by them.  Atlanta had never had a losing season under Mike Smith, and the Texans appeared to boast the AFC’s most balanced offense.  And admittedly, in 2013 they both went 5-16 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  But they also won a combined 19 games fewer than in 2012, and were generally atrocious all season.  They also stunk up a combined eight nationally televised prime time games, while the 12-4 Panthers and 10-6 Cardinals got a total of four. 

2^nd worst prediction: “Joe Flacco will have a better year statistically than 2012.” His 2012 numbers (when he became simply “Joe”): 10 wins, 3817 yards, 22 TDs, 10 interceptions, a Super Bowl championship.  His 2013 numbers (when he regressed to “Flacco”): 8 wins, 3912 yards, 19 TDs, 22 interceptions, zero playoff appearances, one $120.6 million contract extension.  Yikes.

Worst prediction: “Michael Vick will start all 16 games for the Eagles.” My best and worst predictions involved the same team – appropriately, it was for the same erratic team that gave up 48 points to Matt Cassel and Matt Asiata and then beat the Bears by 43 in a span of seven days.  I must have been in an altered state when writing this sentence, or simply looking for something provocative and completely untenable to proclaim a la Skip Bayless. 

            Now that I’ve earned your adamant trust with my incredible abilities to accurately predict the outcome of the NFL season, let us proceed to break down this weekend’s playoff games.

            Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 4:35pm EST, NBC.

            It’s always nice when we have precedent to base these games on: Two weeks ago, Indianapolis marched into Kansas City having gone two months without a single impressive win to speak of.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs had averaged 42 points in its past four games.  The result was one-sided: The Colts stomped the Chiefs 23-7 at Arrowhead Stadium.

            Now that the venue has shifted to Indianapolis, why should we believe the results will be any different?  Kansas City beat one playoff team all season (the Michael Vick-led Eagles in Week 3) and went 0-5 against playoff teams from the AFC.  The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game in twenty years, and almost no one on Kansas City has any real playoff experience to speak of with the exception of Alex Smith’s two January games in 2011.  And then there is Andy Reid, who hasn’t made it to the divisional round of the playoffs since 2008.  Yes, they were a top-six team offensively and defensively and had an AFC-best +18 turnover ratio; but they were also outgained by nearly 500 yards over the course of the season, and had a -3 turnover ratio two weeks ago in Indianapolis.

            Perhaps the Chiefs’ best hope is in the Colts’ unpredictability.  Indianapolis beat San Francisco, Seattle and Denver . . . but lost to St. Louis at home by 30 (they also lost to Arizona by 29, but that loss doesn’t look quite as bad in retrospect).  They held five opponents to 10 points or fewer, but also had three opponents score 38 or higher.  Another sign of hope for Kansas City is Indianapolis’ futility at running the ball.  Trent Richardson is still averaging under 3 yards per carry, and Donald Brown, while more effective, doesn’t have a game with 14+ carries.  The Chiefs are 6-0 in games where they hold opponents to under 100 yards rushing; the Colts are 2-4 in such games. 

            But really, those kind of stats are relatively insignificant in the playoffs because it is quarterbacks that take over.  Remember when the 2011 Giants entered the playoffs with the league’s worst rushing attack?  Remember when the 2010 Packers ran the ball in the postseason with an unknown rookie named James Starks?  If Indianapolis is going to win, it will be with Andrew Luck’s arm.  He doesn’t have seven game-winning drives like he did in 2012, but his completion percentage is higher, interceptions is lower, and the Colts went from 27 turnovers last season to a league-low 14 this year.  They have the best pass rusher in the NFL (Robert Mathis) who will wreak havoc against a QB sacked 39 times in 2013.  And you don’t think those mild-mannered Indianapolis fans will be pumped up for Andrew Luck’s first home playoff game?  The Chiefs have been a good story all season, but I would be surprised to see them make it to the divisional round.

            Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Kansas City 13

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2007 AFC Wild Card, San Diego 17, Tennessee 6. Do you remember this game?  Exactly, me neither.  Actually, I remember that during that Wild Card weekend, I had to drive from Eugene to Portland, meaning I would miss at least one playoff game. This was the game I chose, meaning I instead got to see this.  Good choice.  Anyway, this was Phillip Rivers’ first home playoff win against a reinvigorated defensive team that could not play from behind.  Bleh.  This wild card weekend, get your chores done Saturday afternoon before claiming the TV set for . . .

            New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 8:10 EST, NBC.

            One of two games this weekend where the more experienced quarterback is a road underdog – not a common occurrence in the NFL playoffs.

            The Saints remind me of the mid-to-late-90s Miami Dolphins.  They have a quarterback who seems to break a new passing record every week, but are unexceptional at running the ball, have a mediocre defense, and can’t win on the road.  The odds of the Saints winning four straight road games, including games in rainy Seattle and blizzard conditions in the Meadowlands . . . well let’s just say they should continue to be thankful for their Super Bowl title (something Dan Marino could never say).  But we’re not talking about a Super Bowl run – all we’re trying to predict is if this team can beat a rookie coach, his second-year quarterback, and a defense that gave up the third-most yards in the league.

            The question here really is whether statistics and conventional wisdom matter.  If they do, then the Saints should win this game.  They are the better team in virtually every significant category (with the exception of two, which I’ll get to in a second).  They played in the better division, they have more experience, and they have the better defense statistically (somehow, they’ve given up the second-fewest passing yards in the league; one year ago, they finished as the league’s second-worst).  As good as Foles’ numbers have been (27 TDs vs. 2 interceptions), Brees’ passing numbers are prolific, and when healthy, Jimmy Graham was virtually unstoppable. 

            Now let’s get to those problematic areas for the Saints.  The first one is extremely well-documented: Their road woes.  They were 3-5 away from the Superdome this year, and have not won an away playoff game under the Sean Peyton-Drew Brees regime.  This season, they were competitive in three of those road losses (the Panthers and Patriots games were lost in the final seconds), and it could be argued that all of those road losses came against quality defenses (their other two losses were against Seattle, St. Louis, and the New York Jets).  Fortunately for New Orleans, Philadelphia was only 4-4 at home, and judging by their inability to shut down the likes of Kyle Orton last week (along with the 4907 passing yards they gave up in 2013), their secondary cannot exactly be called elite.

            The second problematic area for the Saints is a little more telling: They can’t run the ball consistently.  In three of its losses, New Orleans ran for fewer than 61 yards.  In fact, throw out the Dallas game (when Mark Ingram inexplicably ran all over the porous Cowboys’ D) and the Saints didn’t have a game where they rushed for over 131 yards.  Philadelphia had nine such games in 2013, and seven of the Saints rush defense’s nine worst games in 2013 came on the road.  Conventional wisdom says that the best way to shut down a prolific passing offense is by controlling the clock, and should LeSean McCoy run wild, it could be a long day for the Saints (God I hate writing sentences like that – I feel like Talking Head Guy).

            Philadelphia is on a remarkable eight-game streak.  In going 7-1, they’ve resurrected a season which seemed doomed by a catastrophic mix of Michael Vick’s injury and Chip Kelly’s inexperience.  They’ve scored 266 points and committed five turnovers during that span.  But their defense isn’t great, and I choose to believe that when the Saints lose on the road, it is more often than not because of the good defenses they face.  This is the toughest game of the weekend to predict, but when it comes to this many unpredictable factors, you have to take experience over inexperience. 

            Prediction: New Orleans 28, Philadelphia 24

            Playoff doppelganger: 1999 AFC Wild Card, Miami 20, Seattle 17.  Gotta go back to the archives for this one, but I remember this game well.  The Dolphins, like the Saints, were lousy on the road and fairly one-dimensional, and were thought to be underdogs against an up-and-coming AFC team at home with a new coach/QB combination.   Well surprise surprise, Marino in his last season came through with one more impressive playoff win before getting demolished by 55 points on the road the following week.  Hmm.

            San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

            Sunday, January 5, 1:05pm EST, CBS.

            As a Patriots fan, this game scares me.  Either we’ll get Cincinnati in round two – a tough, physical team with a dynamic offense that already beat us earlier this season – or potentially San Diego in the AFC Championship – by that point, a surefire “team of destiny” candidate after wins over the Chiefs, Bengals and Broncos (twice). 

            I guess the underlying message of that is: both teams have talent and the potential to go deep into the postseason.  In an AFC dominated by serious questions about whether the Broncos and Patriots can overcome major injuries on both sides of the ball, Cincinnati and San Diego both boast excellent offenses with powerful running games.  And while the Bengals may have the best defense in the AFC, the Chargers are certainly the hottest team heading into the playoffs, having won four straight with major wins over Kansas City and Denver (both on the road).

            Like Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers is the second veteran QB this weekend to be an underdog on the road.  And like Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton is making his home playoff debut, still searching for his first postseason victory.  The Bengals have been spectacular at home, averaging 41.6 points in their last five home games.  They haven’t lost at home all season, and handled the likes of New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Baltimore.  And although they were mediocre on the road, going 4-4, one of those wins was crucially against San Diego, giving the Chargers their lone December loss.  Dalton threw for more touchdowns than Rivers, Tony Romo, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford.  In making their offense more vertical, Cincinnati has tried to emulate the crucial explosiveness Baltimore had in their Super Bowl run last year.  And it’s not like BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard are exactly bad running options.

            It’s tempting to believe that the Chargers have more playoff experience than the Bengals, but actually, this is their first trip to the playoffs since 2009.  And with the exceptions of Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Eric Weddle, this team doesn’t really resemble the squad that lost at home to the Jets and the Sanchize four years ago. What does make this San Diego team feel familiar is their typically erratic pre-December play; while they beat Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Philadelphia, they also lost to Houston, Oakland and Washington.  But we all know that Philip Rivers is a quarterback who relies on emotion for motivation – this is dangerous.  It boils down to whether you can stand behind a guy who acts like this.

            Thus, in Rivers’ four playoff appearances, the Chargers have been favorites twice (2006 and 2009) and underdogs twice (2007 and 2008).  They blew the games in which they were favorites, and advanced when no one believed in them – just as no one believed they could go into Denver Week 15 and beat Peyton Manning.  On the flip side, no one has ever really believed in Cincinnati, a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, and is 0-4 in the postseason under Marvin Lewis.

            This game would perhaps make a lot more sense if the events of Week 17 had not been so quirky: While both teams won pivotal home games, Dalton threw four interceptions and had a QB rating of 62.2, while the Chargers needed a miraculous field goal miss to beat the Chiefs’ second-stringers.  Thus, while both teams have obvious talent, they can also look acutely mortal.  But I lean toward San Diego for a few reasons: (A) I’d take Philip Rivers as an underdog over Andy Dalton as a favorite, (B) San Diego’s road wins have been more impressive than Cincinnati’s home wins, and (C) San Diego hasn’t played a lousy game since October 6, when they lost to Oakland.  They may have lost more games during that time, but unlike Cincinnati, they haven’t laid any stink bombs like this. 

The best case for Cincinnati is their 8-0 record at home.  As a Patriots fan who saw home playoff losses in three of the past four years, I can say 8-0 in the regular season doesn’t mean crap.  Since 2005, the recipe for winning in the playoffs has been based around momentum, emotion, the ability to win on the road, and experienced, fearless quarterback play.  Those qualities are manifested in this unlikely Chargers team – a team that should put the rest of the league on notice.

           

            Prediction: San Diego 28, Cincinnati 19

            Playoff doppelganger: 2008 AFC Wild Card Round, San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT). This year’s Chargers were 5-7 heading into December, which isn’t quite as bad as the 2008 team, which was 4-8 and four games behind division leader Denver.  After the Chargers played a spectacular December, they hosted a red-hot Colts team that hadn’t lost in two months.  The result?  Emotion over logic.

            San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers  (+3)

            January 5, 4:40pm EST, FOX.

           

            San Francisco is a highly questionable call away from having clinched the NFC’s 1 seed.  Green Bay is an epic Cowboys collapse away from being out of the playoffs entirely.  The last time a 12-win wild card team (and defending Super Bowl loser) went on the road to play an 8-win division champion, this happened.  The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, this happened.

            It could be argued that no team is playing better football than the 49ers right now.  The defense is the healthiest it has been all season, while Michael Crabtree’s return has lit a spark for the passing game.  Not that San Francisco has needed to rely on Colin Kaepernick’s arm much lately; when Kap threw for 310 yards in last week’s win in Arizona, it was his first time eclipsing 300 yards in the air since Week 1 against (you guessed it) the Packers.  Like Cam Newton, Kaepernick has been proven most effective when sitting in the pocket, but can still be lethal with the option.  In his last three road games, Kaepernick has 7 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a QB rating of 117.4

            The Packers defied all odds by surviving an 0-4-1 stretch, and rallying behind Matt Flynn to beat the Falcons and Cowboys.  After benefitting from a pathetic NFC North, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb returned Week 17 an upset the Bears at Soldier Field.  Rodgers wasn’t his normal self, but still threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns.  Now he’ll have to face a defense which played the pass exceptionally all year, and has stifled Rodgers in their last three meetings. 

            If you want to come up with reasons to pick Green Bay, you can look at the emotion of Rodgers’ return, the atmosphere of Lambeau Field, and the fact that the Packers have scored 31+ points in each of its last three games.  It’s hard to beat a team four times in a row, and Eddie Lacy wasn’t really a factor in any of the past few meetings.  Kaepernick can look vulnerable on the road (ask Seattle fans), and San Francisco doesn’t have the vertical passing game to overcome large early deficits (unless the lights go out). 

            Otherwise, the 49ers are the clear pick.  As long as they don’t have to travel to Seattle, they can beat any team in the NFL.  When San Francisco scores 23 points or higher, they are 11-0.  Green Bay allowed 11 opponents to score over 23 points, and was 3-7-1 in those games.  If anything, the tundra conditions are more conducive to the 49ers grind-it-out style, and Rodgers is not at 100 percent health.  I would be a hypocrite to pick San Diego on emotion alone and completely ignore the amazing events that have transpired for the Packers, but the 49ers are a better team than the Bengals, and Green Bay’s defense can’t stop anyone.  Plus, don’t we need at least one Colin Kaepernick-Russell Wilson playoff game?

            Prediction: San Francisco 34, Green Bay 21

            Playoff doppelganger: 2005 NFC Divisional Round, Carolina 29, Chicago 21.  Rex Grossman’s return from a season-crippling ankle injury was thwarted by Carolina’s balanced attack and Steve Smith’s spectacular receiving day.  A mismatch.

            An interesting side note: In each of the past three seasons, the Super Bowl champion has played Wild Card weekend.  And in each of the past three seasons, I stupidly picked against that team in the Wild Card round.  So a preemptive congratulations to either the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals or Packers on their Super Bowl 48 championship!