Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2015: Wild Card Round

            It is football in January, which can only mean three things: Jesus, girls, and Marcus Mariota. January also means Oscar nominations, and if 2014 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and his calf injury doesn't get nominated this year, it will be the snub of the century.  But for those of us who cannot wait until January 12 at 8:30pm EST, there does happen to be an interesting slate of NFL games this weekend which can pass the time without too much anxiety.  So in honor of the greatest football moment this side of the butt fumble, let’s break down this weekend’s Wild Card matchups -- all featuring teams that would probably lose to the Ducks, in my completely unbiased opinion:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6)

Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm EST, ESPN.

            Take your pick for the more improbable storyline: On one side, you have a team that finished 2-4 down the stretch, hasn’t scored over 18 points since November 9, was outgained by 800 yards on the season, and is led by their fourth-string QB and second-string RB.  On the other side, you have the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record (a team that went 63 days without winning a game), a QB still recovering from a bizarre car crash, and a franchise that hasn’t won a home playoff game in 11 years.

            Carolina actually had a good season – if you conveniently omit October and November from the equation.  Those two months aside, the Panthers went 6-2 and in those six wins allowed a paltry average of 10.1 points.  And say what you will about the pathetic NFC South, the Panthers actually played formidably against quality opponents.  They beat Detroit by 17, tied Cincinnati, and gave up the game-winning touchdown to the Seahawks with under a minute remaining.  In their current four-game winning streak, the running game has come alive, with Jonathan Stewart averaging just over 400 yards per game.  Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen both gained over 1,000 receiving yards on a team that didn’t particularly like to pass, and they can both rumble over even the best defenders.  And while it would be hard to mistake the 2014 Panthers defense for their excellent 2013 unit, Carolina held half of its opponents to under 19 points and only allowed only three 300-yard passers all season.  I somehow doubt that number will reach four after Saturday.

            The case for Arizona is that Bruce Arians is a brilliant coach.  And that’s about it.  Ryan Lindley did look noticeably better against a depleted 49ers secondary last week, but the Cardinals still only scored 17 points and Lindley had three picks.  If that’s the best your quarterback can play, are you really telling me there is no better option?  But the problem isn’t only at QB; the Cardinals were only 4-4 on the road this year with their one impressive victory coming against a Tony Romo-less Cowboys.  Even with Andre Ellington playing 12 games, Arizona had the second-worst rushing offense in football and gave up the fourth-most passing yards.  I imagine it must be tough for Cardinals players to keep composure and focus in the midst of such a collapse; on November 30, when Arizona was 9-3, could they ever have imagined traveling on the road to play 3-8-1 Carolina?

            So the real question is how did Arizona ever make the playoffs in the first place?  They were 6-0 under Carson Palmer, 5-3 under Drew Stanton, and 0-2 under Lindley (which brings his career NFL record to 1-7).  With Stanton ruled out for Saturday’s game, there seems little hope Arizona can muster much of anything.  But you know what?  This isn’t the first time people have said this about the Cardinals.  Remember the 1998 “Cardiac Cards” team with Jake Plummer that won all their games in the last few seconds and snuck into the playoffs?  No one thought they’d do anything, and lo and behold, they stunned Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith in Big D.  Remember the 2008 Cardinals squad which people claimed was the worst team ever to make the playoffs?  We all know what happened after that.  So here we are yet again, with a well-coached Cardinals team that did win 11 games and is a 6-point underdog to a team that won four fewer games and a super-hyped QB who tellingly has yet to win a playoff game. 

            So that’s my best case for the Cardinals – that as a franchise, they’re used to being significant underdogs.  Hell, I still remember thinking that the ’08 team didn’t have a chance against Matt Ryan as a rookie.  I was wrong, and so was the rest of the country.  So keep belittling them if you want to.  But I don’t think anyone’s going to be wrong about this one.

Prediction: Carolina 31, Arizona 10.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2012 NFC Wild Card, Green Bay 24, Minnesota 10.  This was the season where child abuser contrite and honorable Adrian Peterson ran for 2,000 yards and the Vikings snuck in the playoffs with Mr. Samantha Ponder at QB.  Then the Vikings did the most Vikings-like thing imaginable and put in converted WR Joe Webb at starting quarterback against the Packers at Lambeau Field. Because that was such a great idea.  Webb finished 11/30 for 180 yards and the Vikings lost by two scores in a game more boring than a Leslie Frazier press conference.  The only thing I really remember about this game is that NBC inexplicably made this their prime time game of Wild Card weekend.  If we’re living in a world where no one at NBC was fired for that inexcusable move and Ryan Lindley is the starting quarterback of a playoff team, then there really is no hope for humanity.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (- 3)

Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm EST, NBC.

            The obvious candidate for NBC’s prime time game – one of the best modern rivalries in sports, three combined titles in the last ten years, and the serious potential for brawls and punches polite jostling and great family-friendly entertainment.  Inexplicably, the two previous 2014 games where these two teams squared off were outright disappointments – a 20-point Ravens victory in Baltimore on Week 2, and a 20-point Steelers victory in Pittsburgh on Week 9.  These games used to always be close and contentious;

            The “eye test” would certainly seem to favor the Steelers here.  They’ve had a tremendous December going 4-0, with Roethlisberger throwing a lone pick in 137 pass attempts and Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown turning into 2014’s own Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt.  They have some impressive wins on their resume too (besides the Baltimore win): Indianapolis, Carolina, Cincinnati (twice), Kansas City, and Houston.  But when you look deeper, you see some inexplicable losses (Tampa Bay and New Orleans at home, along with the Jets and Browns) and a defense that gave up 4,243 passing yards and 30 TDs.  The Steelers strength is unquestionably their offense, and they are 9-1 when scoring 27 points or more.  But that also means they are 2-4 in games scoring 26 points or less, and with Bell status doubtful for Saturday, suddenly 27 points may seem like a tall order, even at home.

            For a team historically considered so similar to the Steelers (great defense, strong running game, big boring QB), it’s a little remarkable how different the 2014 Ravens’ problems are from the Steelers.  Unlike Pittsburgh, Baltimore has been riddled with injuries all season, not just this past week.  Their offense has been horribly shaky down the stretch.  If you take away their 4^th quarter collapse against the Chargers (a game that, with under three minutes remaining, Baltimore had a 99.7 percent chance of winning), here’s how the Ravens offense has fared down the stretch in what should have been a pretty easy December: 28 points against Miami, 20 points against Jacksonville, 13 points against Houston, and 20 points against Cleveland.  Justin Forsett was a nice comeback story for most of the season, but looked downright ordinary in December and has only one touchdown since Thanksgiving. But the defense has played tough (or is it that opposing offenses have been weak?) and the Ravens are one of three teams in the NFL to be in the top ten in scoring offense and defense (the Patriots and the Seahawks are the other two).  Baltimore is 8-0 in games allowing under 17 points.

            I tend to think both of these teams are slightly overrated, due in large part to playing the NFC South and AFC South divisions and having the cache of winning recent Super Bowls.  I don’t see the winner of this game coming away from Foxborough or Denver victorious.  So in light of Baltimore’s offensive woes and Pittsburgh’s erratic play as well as the uncertain status of Bell, this game is pretty evenly matched.  But I’m picking the Ravens in this game, and here are a few reasons why: Baltimore ranked 2^nd in the NFL in sacks (49), while Pittsburgh ranked 26^th (33); even with Bell in the lineup, Pittsburgh was the definition of a mediocre running team, ranking 16^th, while Baltimore was a top-four defense against the run.  And while the Ravens have looked vulnerable against the deep pass, I’d still take Lardarius Webb, Darian Stewart and Matt Elam over Brice McCain, Mike Mitchell, and Troy Polamalu.  Or maybe the real point is, neither unit is exceptional.

            The real reason I like Baltimore? (SPOILER ALERT) I like all the home teams this weekend.  As everyone knows, one of the cardinal rules of NFL playoff gambling is that at least one road team wins in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds.  The Ravens are experienced, know how to win in Pittsburgh, and certainly look more poised than Arizona, Detroit, and Cincinnati to pull an upset over a Pittsburgh team missing their most dynamic offensive weapon. We all know what happens when Roethlisberger is put under pressure, and if the Ravens’ offensive line can protect Forsett, it’s worth remembering that the Steelers are 1-4 when allowing over 140 yards on the ground.  Plus, as a pessimistic Patriots fan, I really don’t want to see the Ravens in the playoffs again.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20.

Playoff doppelganger: NFC Wild Card Round, 2004, St. Louis 27, Seattle 20.  The 8-8 Rams weren’t really good at much (a -73 point differential and a ridiculous -24 turnover margin), but they did know how to beat the 9-7 Seahawks, and in 2004 defeating Seattle constituted for 1/3 of the Rams’ victories for the season.  It may come as a shock to the Seahawk fan base (for whom nothing interesting ever happened in football or in life prior to 2010), but the St. Louis-Seattle divisional rivalry was once pretty exciting back in the days when the NFC West was terrible.  Surprisingly few people picked the Rams back then and surprisingly few people are picking the Ravens this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3½)

Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm EST, CBS.

            It’s a matchup of the two kings of wild card weekend!  This is the third straight year (and fourth in the last five years) that the Colts play in the wild card round and the fourth consecutive year (and fifth in the last six years) for the Bengals.  Their records in the wild card round since 2009?  Indy is 1-2 and Cincy is, as we all know, 0-5.  Isn’t it amazing to think that without that epic Andy Reid-Alex Smith 28-point collapse last year, these two teams would be 0-8 in playoff games the last five years?

            Considering both franchises’ underwhelming recent performances in the postseason, it should not come as a surprise that of all the games this weekend, this is the one I am least looking forward to.  Simply put, neither team merits that much excitement (I wish I could say that with each of their combined playoff experience the winner is primed for a deep run, but the talent simply isn’t there).  The Colts are the very definition of Bill Simmons’ category of the “good bad team”: A team that beats up on lousy teams (Washington, Cleveland, the Giants) while playing in an even lousier division (Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville) and loses to good teams (Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England).  And “loses” is an understatement – they lost those three games by a combined 74 points.  We know about Andrew Luck being a spectacular quarterback and even Trent Richardson quietly having a competent season by somehow averaging over 3 yards per carry and only having two fumbles.  When I look at their schedule, I see only two impressive wins by Indianapolis: A 20-13 home victory over the Ravens in Week 5 and (you guessed it) a 27-0 thrashing of Cincinnati at home in Week 7.

            So if Indy beats up on the bad teams but can’t beat the good ones, the only real question of this game is whether Cincinnati is a good team or not.  To help answer this question, I took a trip to the archives, looked at some of my previous previews of Wild Card weekend, and reexamined what I said about the Bengals.  Here is what I found:

2012: “They went 0-7 against playoff teams this year; they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991 and have never won a postseason game on the road; since November 6, they’ve won one road game, and it was against the Rams; they lost to the Texans at home on December 11, and gave up 300 passing yards to T.J. Yates.  Oh, and they’re the Cincinnati Bengals.”

2013: “Are [the Bengals] winning in spectacular fashion?  Not exactly. The offensive line has surrendered 46 sacks, which makes J.J. Watt fans understandably salivate.  But A.J. Green (1,350 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns) is a huge receiving target, and Andy Dalton threw more touchdowns than Schaub, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers . . . The “rematch” factor will undoubtedly favor the Bengals, who are still bitter after last year’s 31-10 defeat, and are desperately seeking their first playoff win since 1991 (Andy Dalton is also no longer a rookie).”

2014: “No one has ever really believed in Cincinnati, a franchise that hasn’t won a game since 1991, and is 0-4 in the postseason under Marvin Lewis . . . The Best case for Cincinnati is their 8-0 record at home.  As a Patriots fan who saw home playoff losses in three of the past four years, I can say 8-0 in the regular season doesn’t mean crap.  Since 2005, the recipe for winning in the playoffs has been based around momentum, emotion, the ability to win on the road, and experienced, fearless quarterback play.”

            You’ll have to excuse me for sounding like a broken record.  But you also gotta admit, that last sentence is pretty darn accurate and predicting San Diego to go into chilly Cincinnati and beat the Bengals by multiple scores last January was one of the smartest picks I’ve ever made in this column (crucially en route to my 4-0 record last year’s wild card weekend).  So is there anything to add to this year’s description of the Bengals?  Not really.  Jeremy Hill has looked really good.  Before dropping last weekend’s game in Heinz Field, the Bengals had won four straight road games (albeit against New Orleans, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland).  Cincinnati is 9-0-1 when scoring 22 or more and 8-0 when allowing under 23 points.  Their only impressive wins were their season sweep of Baltimore and their mildly flukish Monday night win against the Broncos.

            Cincinnati has all the talent to beat the Good Bad Colts, but they won’t because Andy Dalton doesn’t win big games and Marvin Lewis is the Marty Shottenheimer of this generation.  Indy has looked shaky, but let’s remember that they clinched the AFC South practically in September and if you take out the Dallas fiasco, the Colts won five of their final six games.  I get the sense that #ChuckStrong and company have pulled a Dwayne Wade and have checked out for much of the season in preparation for the playoffs (that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll play well).  The best case for Cincinnati is that Andy Dalton likes playing 1pm Sunday games and they have to win a playoff game at some point, right?  Even Susan Lucci eventually won an Emmy. The best case for me is that the winner of this game flies to Foxborough.

Prediction: Indianapolis 37, Cincinnati 21.

Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Wild Card, Indianapolis 49, Denver 24.  The Jake Plummer-era Broncos are the best parallel to the Andy Dalton-era Bengals: A borderline competent quarterback incapable of reaching the next level but buoyed by good coaching, a strong running game and an above-average regular season defense.  And Andrew Luck, like Peyton Manning early in his career, feasted on bad teams and couldn’t beat the good ones like New England and Pittsburgh.  In this game, Reggie Wayne had 10 receptions for 221 yards and two scores; last year in the Wild Card round, T.Y. Hilton had 13 receptions for 224 yards and two scores.  Andrew Luck has both of them at his arsenal.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7½)

Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm EST, FOX.

            It wouldn’t feel right watching this game without turkey, stuffing, and gravy, but at the same time, it doesn’t really feel right watching this game, period.  The Cowboys didn’t have another December collapse?  The Lions won 11 games with a 22^nd ranked offense and 3^rd ranked defense?  Either Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford will emerge from a playoff game victorious?  Something in the universe feels awry.  What happened to the annual Packers-49ers or Eagles-Saints wild card game? 

            The case for the Cowboys: They played December like a desperate Mountain West college team making their case to be in the BCS title game (scoring 41, 38, 42, and 44 points in each game respectively); their offensive line was so outstanding that it propelled Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray into legitimate MVP candidates (why giving a collective MVP to the Dallas offensive line was never a serious discussion confounds me; this is the same league that once gave MVP to a kicker); the Dallas defense ranked second in total takeaways with 31; they went undefeated on the road, something only five other teams have ever done in NFL history.  Each of those teams at very minimum advanced to the Super Bowl.

            This means that, strangely enough, homefield advantage could be anything but advantageous to Dallas.  The Cowboys went 4-4 at home, but two of those losses occurred when Romo was injured and a third was on Week One.  Thus, the only loss that adequately demonstrates Dallas’ weaknesses was their Thanksgiving Day 23-point thrashing at the hands of Mark Sanchez and the Eagles.  So how did Philadelphia win that game?  The Eagles stacked the line of scrimmage and pressured Romo relentlessly, resulting in two interceptions and only 73 rushing yards for Murray (his lowest total of the season when healthy).  Philadelphia’s up-tempo offense converted 8 third downs and ran for 256 yards on the ground. 

            Therefore, the steps to beating Dallas is relatively simple: Successfully run the ball (the Cowboys are 1-3 when allowing over 123 rushing yards); force turnovers (the Cowboys are 3-4 when turning the ball over 2 or more times; they are 9-0 in all other games); and hold Dallas to under 20 points (the Cowboys are 0-4 in such games).  It’s not rocket science.  But the problem is that successfully achieving those things is easier said than done, and Detroit doesn’t exactly appear to be the best team to take Dallas down.

            To be fair, the Lions look surprisingly formidable on paper: They had the third-best scoring defense in football and held all but five opponents under 17 points.  Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are finally healthy (think for a moment how much more amazing that sentence would have sounded 7-8 years ago) and Jim Caldwell knows how to win in the playoffs.  Furthermore, Tony Romo has inexplicably struggled against the Lions, going 1-3 in his career against Detroit.  In the last two Detroit-Dallas games, the Lions overcame second-half deficits of 24 and 10 points respectively, and Megatron had a total of 425 receiving yards.  And even though Stafford has a record of 0-1 in the postseason, it’s only one fewer win than Romo’s record of 1-3.

            But then you have to step back and look at the most telling statistic of Stafford’s career – a stat which was repeatedly brought up by Joe and Troy in last week’s loss to the Packers: In road games against teams above .500, Stafford has a lifetime record of 0-16. Yikes.  Ben Roethlisberger and Meryl Streep Aaron Rodgers won Super Bowls as 6 seeds.  Joe Flacco and Eli Manning had to make epic road trips to win their titles.  Peyton and Tom, the same (maybe someday the most recent Super Bowl winning QB will actually have to win a meaningful playoff game on the road). The point is this: Dallas and Detroit both possess individual components of what could potentially make a championship team – the Cowboys’ offensive line, the Lions’ defensive line, and Dez Bryant and Megatron.  Both have the ability to clinch a Super Bowl appearance and maybe even win a title.  The difference is that one of these teams knows how to win on the road, while the other team still has not figured it out (and frankly, they haven’t figured it out since the days of Bobby Layne).  Don’t overthink this one.

Prediction: Dallas 35, Detroit 17.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2009 NFC Wild Card, Dallas 34, Philadelphia 14.  You may not remember this, but the 2009 Cowboys also went into the playoffs red-hot after beating the 13-0 Saints in New Orleans and shutting out the Eagles in the season finale.  The only real memorable thing about Tony Romo’s lone playoff victory was dog abuser rehabilitated Michael Vick throwing his first touchdown pass in three seasons.  The excitement over Romo exorcising his postseason demons was short-lived, however, as Dallas went to Minnesota the next week and lost by 31.  I somehow don’t see a repeat of that happening this time.

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Angry that I did not meet my quota of Tom Brady references?  Write below.

2014 at Halftime: The NFL Mid-Season Report and Awards

 

           Remember the good ole days when the biggest offseason storylines from the NFL were limited to treatment of concussions and long-term effects of brain injuries?  With the unresolved sagas of Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and Breaking Bad-style de-evolution of Roger Goodell into a Vince McMahon-like league villain, it’s safe to say those days are gone.  There has been, however, some good football to come out of the 2014 season at its mid-point – it just hasn’t involved any of the following: Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jay Cutler, Thursday Night Football, professional football in Washington D.C. and Oakland, London games played at 6:00am PST, and ghosts of Bill Gramatica.

Biggest Surprise: There are a few viable candidates here.  The Cleveland Browns are somehow 5-3 despite 0 yards being gained from Johnny Football, the non-reinstatement of their best receiver, injuries to their second-best pass catcher (Jordan Cameron), playing in a super-competitive division where everyone is above .500, and having a bottom-three rush defense.  And yet Cleveland has victories over New Orleans and Pittsburgh, along with two last-second losses to the Ravens and Steelers.  Their lone bad performance all season came against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (go figure).  And perhaps most amazingly of all, Mike Pettine has not even been fired yet!

            You could also go with the Buffalo Bills (5-3 in spite of a bad draft, major injuries on offense and defense, and Kyle Orton as QB) or the Miami Dolphins (also 5-3 with dominant victories over New England, Chicago and San Diego, with Ryan Tannehill turning into a white Michael Vick).  Or you could go with DeMarco Murray, a guy who suffered through severe sprained ankle, foot and MCL injuries the last three seasons before reaching a career high in rushing yards for a season . . . through the first nine games of 2014.  He is on pace for 2,000 rushing and 440 receiving yards while taking the title of unquestionably the NFL’s best runningback. 

            But the winner here has to be the only team to have held Murray under 100 yards in a game, which is precisely what the 7-1 Arizona Cardinals did last week.  If you were to ask at the beginning of the season which NFC team would start out with the best record through eight games, I realistically would have picked eight other teams before the Cards (Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, Green Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta).  It’s not as though the Cardinals are statistically blowing opponents away; the Cardinals rank dead last in pass yards allowed, 5^th worst in rushing offense, and have only outscored their opponents by a total of 36 points.  Hell, they’ve had to turn to the likes of Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, and Larry Foote to cement key wins.  They are winning games for two primary reasons: They don’t turn the ball over (six turnovers through eight games) and they know how to win close games.

            Of course on the flip side, you could make the case that moving forward the Cardinals still have to face the 49ers, Lions, Chiefs and two games against the defending champs.  They still have a 35-year-old quarterback who has never won a playoff game and an offense that has eclipsed 30 points only once.  But you could also point to how they have the best secondary in football with the fearsome combination of Cromartie-Peterson-Matthieu and how Deone Bucannon is a viable defensive rookie of the year candidate.  In a year when everything that could go wrong for Seattle and San Francisco has gone really wrong, Arizona has stepped in out of nowhere and played better than anyone could have expected (in its last 17 games, the Cardinals are an amazing 14-3).  I expect nothing less than this team to go on a 2008-like playoff run, and if that is the case, Arians seems like a shoo-in for Coach of the Year, while Palmer (11 TDs, 2 INTs, 99.3 QB rating) could be a front-runner (along with Arian Foster and Kyle Orton) for Comeback Player of the Year.

Biggest Disappointment: It’s hard to find an example of a disappointing team in the group of five AFC teams with losing records (Jets, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders).  I don’t think anyone expected New York to be 1-8 at this point but I also don’t think many people realistically estimated substantial growth from Geno Smith or considerable help from 34-year-old Michael Vick.  They’ve also played only one sub-.500 team all season – the Raiders – which accounted for their lone victory.  Their October16 loss to the Patriots on a short week – a loss eerily mirroring their questionably-officiated, game-winning FG victory from last year – was their 2014 season.  Meanwhile, I would argue that the Jaguars and Raiders are playing much better football than their record would suggest.

            That leads us to the NFC.  A cumulative record of 9-7 for the two best teams of 2013 (the Seahawks and 49ers) has to be considered a disappointment at some level, but both teams have suffered through throngs of injuries on both sides of the ball, along with a pair truly agonizing losses to the Rams.  If you had told Saints fans their team would be 4-4 at the break, you’d be met with some groans . . . but this would be amended after you told them that New Orleans is still the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South.  Atlanta and Carolina are certainly suffering through painful seasons after their successes in 2012 and 2013 respectively, but neither was exactly the Super Bowl favorite coming into 2014.

            Believe it or not, the only team that truly fits the bill for disappointment is the 3-5 Chicago Bears.  They are the very definition of an erratic and frustrating team: 0-3 at home, 3-2 on the road; blowout losses to the Dolphins and Packers, yet a truly impressive victory in San Francisco against the 49ers on national television; statistically outstanding seasons from Jay Cutler (17 TDs, 95.8 QB rating) and Matt Forte (1,000 total yards) but 9 fumbles by Cutler and only 3 rushing touchdowns for Forte.  Most beguiling of all, the Bears haven’t suffered any serious injuries outside of Peanut Tillman, meaning one of two things: Either (A) their starters really are just that bad, or (B) the team has lost focus due to turmoil in the locker room and lack of leadership on the parts of Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Marc Trestman. 

            For the second half of the season, the Bears do get treated to home games against the Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Saints and Lions, meaning they have ample room make up ground in the NFC North.  But there’s no way of predicting which team will show up on the field on any given day – the one that held the Falcons to under 300 yards of total offense or the team that gave up 21 points to the Patriots in a span of48 seconds.  Is it too late to call up Josh McCown again?

Team to watch in the Second Half: Once again, the disappointing first halves for the Seahawks and 49ers suggest that both teams are more than capable of righting the ship in time for playoff runs virtually everyone banked on going into the season.  Meanwhile, someone has to win the NFC East and while history would suggest that Eli Manning and the Giants can be the beneficiaries of injuries to Nick Foles and Tony Romo, New York has also lost three straight, has to fly to Seattle this weekend, and hasn’t defeated a team over .500.

            There is, however, a 2013 playoff team that no one is talking about because Brady-Manning-Luck have overshadowed the race in the AFC.  This team has victories over the Dolphins, Patriots, and Chargers, and close losses to the 49ers and Broncos.  So yes, while everyone in Jayhawk country spent the majority of the month of October rooting for their incredible baseball team (or rooting unsuccessfully against their odious governor), you could make the case that quietly the 5-3 Kansas City Chiefs are playing the best football in the NFL right now. They have found a legitimately frightening two-headed beast at runningback with the combination of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, while Alex Smith is completing over 67 percent of his passes – most of which are going into the arms of breakout tight end Travis Kelce (419 yards, 4 TDs).  On defense, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have remained healthy and fearsome, combining for 16 sacks, and the Chiefs defense has given up the fewest points in the AFC (138).

            The problem?  Kansas City has been absolutely incapable of creating turnovers.  Of the five (you read that correctly, five) takeaways they’ve forced through eight games, three came against one opponent (the Patriots, on that memorable Monday night stampeding). Due to the impressive ball control abilities of the offense, the lack of takeaways hasn’t received a lot of notice, but the upcoming return of Eric Berry (out of the lineup since Week Two) should help a secondary that gets stabs at Kyle Orton and Derek Carr twice . . . but also Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger.  I’m picking Kansas City here not so much because their schedule is favorable (which it is anyway) but because this is a legitimately talented team with playoff experience that is seriously going under the radar. We all now know what teams in KansasCity – along with their tremendous fans – are capable of.

Coach of the Year: Arians, for the reasons stated in the “Biggest Surprise” category.  But a close second would be Jim Caldwell, who has somehow turned the Lions into the best defense in football.  I don’t have complete faith in their 6-2 record, since two of those games were super-fluky wins over the Saints and Falcons, but Caldwell has done an amazing job of turning around a team that hasn’t had a top-ten defense since 1983.  All the more impressive is that defensive players haven’t revolted in wake of Ndamukong Suh’s lame-duck year.  I guess I just don’t understand how Caldwell is such a good coach – does he motivate his players through stern looks and unrelenting stares into empty space? 

Best Team: Come on.  This isn’t really all that tough, is it?  A month ago, the New England Patriots were sitting at 2-2.  They had two blowout conference losses, a home game against the Raiders they should have lost, and a borderline-unfair win against Matt Cassel and the Vikings the same week the Adrian Peterson scandal broke.  The beloved Belichick-Brady era seemed on its final ropes, as everyone had started predicting as long as five years ago.  “Trading Logan Mankins a week before the season was a terrible idea!” They chimed.  “No one can catch the ball other than Edelman and Gronk!” They proclaimed.  “They’re too old/slow/banged up/inexperienced/unmotivated/overmatched/untalented!” They insisted.

            It’s amazing to me that in year 14 of Brady-Belichick experiment people still don’t seem to realize that the Patriots feed off when the media criticizes them.  No way they can beat the Greatest Show on Turf in an indoors Super Bowl?  Not a problem.  No way they can recover from the penalties and repercussions of SpyGate?  No big deal.  No way they can win games after Brady goes down in the first quarter of Week One?  Nobody cares.  Take your pick of adversity and criticisms this team has faced: Losing Wes Welker and Randy Moss, the Aaron Hernandez saga, Gronkowski’s injuries, Brady’s age, bad officiating, bad drafting, 4^th-and-2, and the Manning Brothers (good times and bad). 

            And yet after that shellacking by the Chiefs, the media still insisted that the Patriots were done for.  Don’t get me wrong.  That Kansas City game was terrible.  But as awful as that game was for Tom and company (and the fans that had to watch it), New England has responded with precisely that much more intensity, anger, and outstanding play – and they have done so in spite of losing their best rusher (Stevan Ridley), their best tackler (Jerrod Mayo) and their best defensive lineman (Chandler Jones).  They put up 43 points on the Broncos and the Bengals; Tom went 150 passes without throwing an interception (the one he did throw last week was a tipped pass); and with Brandon Browner back in the lineup, the secondary is pretty clearly the best in the AFC.  And the losses of Wes Welker, Aqib Talib, and Logan Mankins?  Not exactly the first thing on Pats’ fans minds anymore . . .

            So here’s the real question: How far can this team really go?  We’ve heard all these glowing praises before, but the Pats always find ways to shoot themselves in the foot with injuries and inexplicably poor play in January.  They have an incredibly tough slate of games coming up (at Indianapolis, at Green Bay, at San Diego, home for Detroit and Miami; meanwhile, Denver gets Oakland twice).  They haven’t run the ball especially well without Ridley and we all know Gronk could have a fluke injury at any point (every game there’s at least one “hold-your-breath-for-dear-life” moment like this one).  Peyton Manning won’t forget last week any time soon.  But for the time being, I’d take this group against any other team in the league, and the tough schedule will help keep them disciplined in their quest for title #4.

MVP: This is a tough one.  Prior to the last few weeks, the obvious candidate was Murray, a guy who legitimately seemed unstoppable in the rare Adrian Peterson/Jamal Lewis-in-2003/Barry Sanders mode.  And of course Murray could still win it, but two things will almost certainly need to happen: He will need to break the 2,000 rushing yard mark and the Cowboys will need to make the playoffs. 

            Murray supporters will also need to root for more mediocre play from perennial MVP candidates like Brady, Manning, and Aaron Rodgers, but I think the real favorite here has to be Andrew Luck.  He’s on pace for 5,484 yards, which would pass Manning’s record breaking mark from last season.  He has accounted for at least two total touchdowns in every game this season, and hasn’t exactly been able to rely on the ground game of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw (even though the latter has played better than anyone expected).  If the NFL’s PR campaign wants to brand the league as guys who take the game seriously, have no off-the-field issues, and who are universally loved by seemingly everybody, then Luck is precisely the player they would want to bestow the league’s highest individual honor on.  And let’s be honest – this Colts team is hardly loaded with talent, and a total of zero people were seriously panicked after Indy’s 0-2 start or their defensive meltdown against the Steelers.  Luck just promotes that kind of confidence in this team.

            I write all this and yet (you’re going to hate me for this) my MVP vote goes to Rob Gronkowski.  Simply put, he is the most explosive offensive weapon in football.  You can’t put a linebacker on him because he’s too mobile, but you can’t put a safety on him because he’ll run him over.  You can’t protect against his run-blocking because he’s too dominant, and there’s no way you can guard against him with one-on-one coverage.  And then there are plays like these which he makes once or twice per game, which no one can possibly defend against.  In his five years in the league, no team has sufficiently figured out how to cover him, and if you don’t believe me, take a look at his career game log: 31 five-catch games, 15 100-yard games, and 35 games with a TD. 

            Gronkowski has been the best player in football in 2014 and this is true even considering how limited he was in the Pats’ first four games (he still managed three TDs).  With a healthy Gronkowski, the New England offense is historically great, and this isn’t even factoring in the receiving play of Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Shane Vereen.  He has systematically redefined the position he plays – how many players can you say that about?

            So there’s my mid-season report and I’m still not wavering from the Super Bowl pick I made at the beginning of the season: 31-30 Patriots over Seahawks.  Comments?  Questions?  Not enough time spent talking about how great New England is playing?  Write them below! 

2014 NFL Team Win Totals: Five Early Predictions

            It’s that time of the year again: The dog days of the summer, when the weather is hot, the movies are (mostly) atrocious, and SportsCenter leads its prime-time broadcast with the WNBA All-Star Game.  Meanwhile, as the faint glimmer of hope in the distant future – the football season – gets closer and closer, it’s time to start focusing on the important things in life, like betting on NFL team win totals.  Last year when I wrote this column, I went 3-2, accurately predicting Cincinnati Detroit, and Washington (the paragraph on the Redskins ending up being one of the most prescient things I’ve ever written) and missing Denver and San Francisco by a combined total of three wins.  I also wrote the 2013 column in May (the non-football months in 2013 must have been especially boring), and although writing this column days before the NFL trade deadline isn’t particularly advisable, I’m sick of hearing about stories like this.  There is only one true football, and it's Amur-cun, goddammit!

            In any event, here are five early win total predictions that, like 24-point leads, are automatic cash in your wallet (here’s an updated link via Bovada).

                                                    

Indianapolis Colts (Over 9½ wins -130)

$100 bet pays $76.92

            The Colts play in the NFL’s easiest division, with the Jaguars, Texans and Titans combining for 13 wins in 2013 (Indianapolis won 11 games on its own).  Last season, they beat the Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs.  Somehow in spite of winning the AFC South in 2013, the Colts are straddled with the NFL’s easiest schedule in 2014, with six games against its less-than-formidable division rivals and additional games against the Browns, Giants, Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens (all .500 or below last season).  They have the NFL’s best quarterback under 30 without a Super Bowl title, the most fearsome pass rusher in the AFC (Mathis), one of the most electrifying young receivers in the game (Hilton), and the greatest kicker of all time (you know who).  They also get back a healthy Reggie Wayne and will only play one outdoor cold weather game after November – against Cleveland.  So why is this line so low?  Well, they had a lousy draft, they somehow occasionally play inexplicably poor in spite of their obvious talent, and they still have Trent Richardson on their roster.  Sorry, those aren’t big enough detractors for me.  Double digit wins here feels like low-hanging fruit, and I’d be shocked to see another team out of the AFC South reach the postseason.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 8½ wins -150)

$100 bet pays $66.67

            Since 1971, the Shittsburgh has never experienced three consecutive seasons without a winning record.  From 2000 to 2009, the Stealers had only three seasons with non-double digit wins; each of those seasons was followed by at least a two-win improvement. So yeah, the Steelers have a long track record with success.  That is why it seems unlikely that after two straight 8-8 campaigns marked by sloppy offensive play, injuries, turnovers and inexplicable losses to the Raiders, the Steelers will still suck (the refs won't let that happen).  But if the word “unlikely” isn’t strong enough to convince you that Pittsburgh will have a winning record in 2014, then consider the following evidence: They play only two 2013 playoff teams before Thanksgiving (including a four-week stretch against the Buccaneers, Jaguars, Browns and Texans); their ridiculously fortunate 2014 travel map; Big Ben is entering a contract season, meaning he’ll have to avoid motorcycles and loose women; the running game should be revamped, with a healthy Le’Veon Bell, Dri Archer and Big Sexy; and Dick LeBeau is finally realizing that he needs to have defenders under 35 years old.  Of Pittsburgh’s 16 losses the last two years, 11 have come by a touchdown or less and during that time, Roethlisberger still has managed a QB rating of 94.2 (in spite of seemingly countless games like these).  The guy’s won two Super Bowls, I’m still afraid of him, and a three-year stretch of zero Pittsburgh Steeler playoff appearances feels too much like . . . (wait for it) . . . fantasy football.

San Francisco 49ers (Under 10½ wins +105)

$100 bet pays $105

            This is not going to be a popular pick outside of the greater Seattle metropolitan area, but let’s look at the facts: The 49ers have had a horrific offseason.  Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver are dealing with jail sentences, Vernon Davis and Alex Boone are likely training camp holdouts as they await heftier contracts, and Navarro Bowman is still recovering from this.  Donte (W)Hitner is now on the Browns, Carlos Rogers is now on the Raiders, and Justin Smith is  returning from major surgery to his shoulder.  Frank Gore is bound to break down at some point (right?) and should Kaepernick get injured, the 49ers have all their marbles invested in this guy.  Meanwhile, San Francisco plays in the league’s toughest division and faces only four sub-.500 teams from 2013.  And I know this isn’t scientific or anything, but any time a team experiences consecutive playoff heartbreaks like these, there’s bound to be dejection and feelings of helplessness for years to follow (just ask the Buffalo Bills).  I’m not saying the run of excellent 49er teams is necessarily over, but they may have already peaked and 10½ wins feels like a lot to ask. Got it, ladies?

St. Louis Rams (Over 7½ wins -155)

$100 bet pays $64.52

            On the other hand, the Rams feel like a team finally ready to make some noise after years of unreached hype and underperformance.  Say what you will about Sam Bradford, but when he was healthy last year, he had a QB rating of 90.9 with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 14 to 4.  Remember that in 2013, the Rams beat Arizona, Indianapolis and New Orleans and should have beat the Seahawks – and this was with Kellen Clemens starting the majority of games.  Zac Stacy, Tavon Austin and Tre Mason will certainly give the offense some electricity.  Oh, and let’s not forget the most fearsome pass rush in the league, and really it’s really not even close: Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Michael Brockers and Kendall Langford – with Aaron Donald and Michael Sam added to the mix (look out, Russell Wilson).  The Rams begin 2014 with games against the Vikings, Buccaneers and Cowboys, and then from October to November the schedule is brutal; but if they can manage to stay at .500 during that stretch (and relatively healthy, needless to say), December is manageable. It’s worth remembering that Jeff Fisher only had consecutive losing seasons once while at Tennessee and now that he’s entering his third season in St. Louis, success seems bound to emerge soon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 7 wins +105)

$100 bet pays $105

            It's everyone's favorite Arena Football League team!  But are we really supposed to believe that a simple upgrade at coach (from Greg Schiano to Lovie Smith) can elevate Tampa into a .500 squad?  Look at them: They just lost their best defender (Darrelle Revis) and even when he played last year, the Bucs still gave up 389 points and 4,000 yards and 30 passing TDs to quarterbacks.  And speaking of QB, Tampa will either rely on a second-year player with a 4-9 record in 2013, or a 35-year-old career backup who won three games last year with the help of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans (who’s still recovering from a strained hamstring) should help, but the running game is still uncertain and no one knows how Jeff Tedford’s offensive philosophy will adjust to the NFL.  The NFC South isn’t great, but New Orleans still has a better offense, Carolina still has a better defense and Atlanta isn’t likely to win only four games again.  For 2014 the Bucs play the AFC North, which includes a Ravens team they haven’t beaten in 12 years and a Steelers team they’ve only beaten once all-time.  Now the truth is that seven wins is virtually attainable by any team in the NFL given the right set of circumstances (Exhibit A).  This Buccaneer team feels slightly better than last year, but they are still a major work in progress – even without the variable of injury-related setbacks – and seven wins is asking a lot, even for a coach with Smith’s solid track record.

AND ONE EXTRA PREDICTION

Detroit Lions (Under 8½ wins -130)

$100 bet pays $76.92

            This is my third year of writing this column and in both 2012 and 2013, I predicted that the Lions would finish under their predicted win totals.  And lo and behold, I was correct both times – so why not make it three-for-three with this year’s squad?  My first thought here was: What drugs were they smoking in Vegas when they set this line at 8½?  Do they realize the Detroit is now being coached by a dead guy?  I suppose three years of Jim Schwartz will lead to a desire to lower the pulse on the sideline, but a working heartbeat would be an added plus (or at least a coach who doesn’t expend all of his energy in the preseason). The Lions play only four sub-.500 teams in 2014 and in classic Detroit Lions fashion, they squandered their first pick of this year’s NFL draft on an offensive skill player they don’t really need.  This summer, they haven’t addressed issues on defense that have plagued this franchise since . . . well, since forever, and their best defensive player maybe on the outs due to intensely cramped cap space (look no further than this to understand why Suh is a liability). So yes, like the Buccaneers, let’s pretend that the new regime of Caldwell and Joe Lombardi will lead to a wholesale change in Detroit – except for the fact that to place a winning bet, the Lions must win nine games instead of seven, all while playing in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and Jay Cutler.  But hey, I got no qualms with someone in Vegas making me look smart each summer.

            Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Eager to see the column where I explain why the Patriots will win over 11 games? (Sorry, there isn’t one).  Let me know below. 

2013 NFL Season Preview and Predictions

 

           One year ago, the Baltimore Ravens were the talented second-best team in the AFC North who had a shaky quarterback and an old defense.  One year ago, Colin Kaepernick was a second-string quarterback who could maybe be used on designed draws to confuse defenses.   One year ago, Russell Wilson was an undersized backup on a team that many thought had lost their mind when they drafted Bruce Irvin at #15 in the 2012 NFL Draft.   One year ago, onlookers would have laughed at the notion that Andrew Luck could win 11 games for the Colts, that RG III would give the Redskins their first division title in the new millennium, and that Peyton Manning would not only stay healthy, but lead the league in wins.  One year ago, Sean Payton was a bad guy, Aaron Hernandez was a good guy, and Adrian Peterson would never be the same guy.  One year ago, the prospect of Ben Affleck directing a Best Picture was as insane as the prospect of two brothers squaring off against each other in the Super Bowl.  But neither was as laughable as the idea that there would be a 34-minute power outage during that Super Bowl.

            Oh, how things have changed.

            If all those crazy things could happen in one year (albeit, the same year that the Mayans declared the world would end), how is it possible to predict all the events of the upcoming season?  The only way to top 2012’s insanity would be if EJ Manuel leads the Bills to their first division title since the Marv Levy era, Tim Tebow is accused of murdering other players as part of a bounty scandal, and M. Night Shyamalan directs the Best Picture winner (somehow this year I don’t see After Earth getting a lot of nominations).  I’m not quite ready to predict any of those things, but I am ready for some football!  Here are some predictions that will probably make me look stupid in December.

AFC East

New England Patriots (11-5)

Buffalo Bills (8-8)

Miami Dolphins (7-9)

New York Jets (5-11)

            In lots of other years, this would finally be the season where New England is finally unable to retain its division crown.  Let’s look at the evidence: Offseason scandal, complete purging of the receiving corps, 37-year-old quarterback, mediocre drafts the past few years, and major injury histories on both sides.  Sadly for non-Patriot fans, the AFC East is simply too weak to compete seriously.  I also see some good defensive contributions coming from a healthy Aqib Talib, rookie Jamie Collins, and Devin McCourtey.  I think the Bills will improve with the E.J.-C.J. combination, and if Mario Williams and Jairus Byrd can stay healthy, the defense is sneaky good.  Add a soft December schedule, and Buffalo could certainly be in contention (at least more so than the ‘Fins and the Jets), but New England still has too much experience to abdicate its position at the top. 

            Crazy Prediction: Mike Wallace will be a bust, but Bilal Powell will rush for 1,000+ yards.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Baltimore Ravens (9-7)*

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-9)

Cleveland Browns (7-9)

            Lots of people love Cincinnati, and for good reason: Superb defense, improved, stable offense, and of yeah, they drafted this guy.  Actually, this Bengals’ team is so loaded that according to some reports, they are having trouble finding open roster spots for their draft picks.  We should naturally wonder whether the Bengals are being overhyped, but unlike the 2010 Texans or 2011 Bills, Cincinnati has considerable playoff experience the last several years.  I am all in on this team.  Meanwhile, you’re crazy if you think the defending champs will completely fold just because they lost half their roster.  As for Shittsburgh, usually they recover pretty strongly after missing the playoffs (such as their Super Bowl appearance in 2010), but this team is old, has a horrible offensive line, and can’t run the ball or stay healthy.  I would love to pick the Browns as an under-the-radar flyer, but not in this division. 

            Crazy Prediction: Flacco will have a better year statistically than 2012, and Josh Gordon will lead the division in receiving yards.

AFC South

Houston Texans (11-5)

Indianapolis Colts (8-8)

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

Tennessee Titans (4-12)

            Houston is still loaded with talent, and even if Arian Foster or Andre Johnson are not at full capacity, Ben Tate and DeAndre Hopkins feel like more-than-adequate role players.  Sure, they crumbled in December last year, but they are one of the few teams in football that can boast a top ten offense and defense.  A healthier Brian Cushing and Jonathan Joseph combined with J.J. Watt (along with Ed Reed, even if he’s sidelined on the bench) is not a defense anyone would look forward to facing.  Not unlike the AFC East, there’s really no strong competition anywhere else in the division.  Indianapolis’ luck last season (no pun intended) is unsustainable, and while it’s hard to imagine the Jaguars being worse than their two-win campaign last season, Gus Bradley will bring stability and hope to a franchise primed for some good 2014 draft picks.

            Crazy Prediction: The Jaguars will be a top-ten defense statistically, and no Colt will have more rushing yards than Arian Foster or Ben Tate.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (11-5)

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)*

San Diego Chargers (6-10)

Oakland Raiders (3-13)

            The Broncos benefited from an easy schedule last year, so predicting 13 wins is a bit of a stretch.  Add Von Miller’s suspension, the loss of Elvis Dumervil, Champ Bailey’s foot injury, the Chief’s improvement, and Peyton Manning’s 37-year-old body, and suddenly 11 wins may be generous.  But on paper, the Broncos may be the AFC’s most talented team, and a soft September and October schedule may make Miller’s absence sting less.  The running game will be a bit of a question, but the 2012 Broncos lacked an 800-yard or 5-TD rusher, so Montee Ball’s presence should be nothing but an asset.  Kansas City is bound for improvement, and should the roster stay healthy, 10 wins is completely reasonable.  As for the other two teams in the division – well, at least they’ll be four automatic wins for Denver and Kansas City.

            Crazy Prediction: Peyton Manning will star in more commercials than combined passing touchdowns by Raiders quarterbacks.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

New York Giants (8-8)

Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
Washington Redskins (6-10)

            Here’s where things get interesting.  Even if the Redskins enter the season healthy, they likely won’t stay healthy for very long.  The 2012 squad benefited from remarkably few turnovers, and a late season surge defined by close wins, RG III’s legs, and collapses by the other three NFC East teams.  The Cowboys are the easiest team in football to predict (undeniable talent, close wins and losses, 6-4 start ending in a 1-5 finish and no playoffs), while the Giants are the toughest team in football to predict.  I say 8-8 for the G Men because JPP and Justin Tuck cannot survive a 16-game schedule anymore, and they boast a QB who, despite two Super Bowl rings, has stat lines likethis in December games that matter.  That leaves . . . you guessed it, Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Ducks who have a great offensive line when healthy, were unlucky with turnovers last year, and have the most exciting, intriguing head coach in football since, well, this guy.  Hey, maybe I’m nuts, but after watching Kelly these last four years, I cannot wait to see what he can bring to the NFL.

            Crazy Prediction: Michael Vick will start all 16 games, the Eagles will go 5-0 in December, and Rex Grossman is good enough to be a starter somewhere.

NFC North

Detroit Lions (10-6)

Green Bay Packers (9-7)

Minnesota Vikings (6-10)

Chicago Bears (6-10)

            The 2012 Bears collapsed after a 7-1 start, and by my own super-scientificanalysis, the 2012 Lions were the 6^th most unlucky team in NFL history.  Meanwhile, the Vikings experienced one of the most unlikely comeback seasons by a player ever, and the Packers managed 11 wins without a 500-yard rusher.  Last year, it was clear who the haves and the have-nots were in the NFC North.  This year, the Lions rebound from a season where they outgained their opponents in 12 games, and take their first division crown in two decades.  As for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, but 7 of their 8 road games come against teams with winning records (the one game that doesn’t is a Thanksgiving matchup in Detroit).  The schedule is also a problem for the Vikings, whose final four road opponents are the Seahawks, Packers, Ravens, and Bengals.  The aging Bears defense will somehow have to account for the nine (nine!) defensive TDs scored last season, and they’ll have to do it without the defensive-minded coach that once took them to the Super Bowl.

            Crazy Prediction: Adrian Peterson does not reach 1,500 rushing yards and the Packers do not break their streak of 43 consecutive regular season games with a 100 yard rusher.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (12-4)

New Orleans Saints (10-6)*

Carolina Panthers (7-9)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

            Matt Ryan and the Falcons are like the Peyton Manning and the Colts, circa 1999-2004: Excellent regular season, sensation passing game, improving defense, little playoff success.  Last year, they were finally able to win a playoff game (as well as narrowly avoid the biggest fourth quarter collapse in playoff history).  They come into the season with as much confidence as anyone in the NFC, with Steven Jackson hoping to revive a struggling running game, and Osi Umenyiora and rookie Desmond Trufant leading a perennially strong defensive unit (minus Dunta Robinson and John Abraham).  While they rarely look dominant, their knack for winning close games is better than any team in the league right now – that matters.  As for the rest of the division, Sean Payton’s return is bound to help the Saints (we’ll get a good indication of who is at the top of the division after this Sunday’s Falcons-Saints matchup) and Carolina has to break out one of these years (I’m guessing we’re still one or two years removed from that season).  Revis’ presence on the Bucs has excited fans, but that hasn’t changed the fact that Josh Freeman still sucks (2 TDs, 9 Ints in the final three games of ’12). 

            Crazy Prediction: Darren Sproles will lead the division in receptions and Trufant will be a superb player for the Falcons D.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

San Francisco 49ers (10-6)*

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

St. Louis Rams (7-9)

            The NFC West is the league’s toughest division, so even predicting .500 seasons for the Cardinals and Rams should be considered a compliment.  But in reality (and in spite of the upgrades both Arizona and St. Louis have made in the offseason and draft), this division is about the two west coast foes whose two matchups (September 15 and December 8) are circled on every NFL fan’s calendar.  The Seahawks schedule feels a little easier (games against the Vikings and Giants instead of the Packers and Redskins, four of the final six at home) and I have a little more confidence in Russell Wilson making it through a 16 game schedule than Colin Kaepernick, who will be making only his 11^th start this weekend.  Similarly, I trust a running game of Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin and Christine Michael more than Frank Gore and the injured Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James.  The defenses even out essentially.  These feel like the NFC’s top two teams, although one wonders how well any of the NFC West will perform in the playoffs after taking serious beatings from one another over the course of the regular season.

            Crazy Prediction: Carson Palmer will throw for 4,000 yards and Steven Hauschka will lead the NFL in field goals made.

Playoff Predictions

New England over Kansas City

Denver over Baltimore

Houston over New England

Denver over Cincinnati

Denver over Houston

San Francisco over Detroit

Philadelphia over New Orleans

Seattle over San Francisco

Atlanta over Philadelphia

Atlanta over Seattle

Super Bowl XLVIII Prediction: Denver 30, Atlanta 27

Other Predictions

MVP: Matt Ryan

Offensive Player of the Year: Payton Manning

Defensive Player of the Year: Richard Sherman

Offensive Rookie of the Year: E.J. Manuel

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Desmond Trufant

Coach of the Year: Chip Kelly

Comeback Player of the Year: Carson Palmer

            Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Not enough Patriots bias? (I wouldn’t disagree with that). Write to me below.