2017 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

#12

In 2016, the St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010.  In 2011, the Cardinals won the World Series.  Will they have the same luck in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Matt Holliday ends the 2016 season as a bench player.

2016 Results

86-76, 2nd in NL Central

It didn't feel right when we hit October in 2016 and the Cardinals were not a part of the postseason ride.  The Cards have been declining for several seasons, and the talent level finally caught up with them.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Matt Holliday may have still been a starter by the end of the season, but he did have a good season as he put up a 0.3 WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals are always active in the offseason.  Their big move heading into 2017 was returning a favor to the rival Cubs.  Before 2016, the Cubs signed Jason Heyward out of St. Louis.  So before 2017, the Cardinals signed Dexter Fowler out of Chicago.  Outside of this move, the only other significant moves were subtractions, losing Jaime Garcia to a trade and the aging Matt Holliday to free agency.

Most Important Hitter

Aledmys Diaz

The Cardinals were not sure what to do at the start of 2016 when they knew Jhonny Peralta was going to miss the first chunk of the season due to a PED suspension.  Little did everyone know that Aledmys Diaz was going to emerge as an All Star shortstop.  The year ended with Diaz being listed with the rest of the outstanding young shortstops in our game today.  When a guy comes out of nowhere like that, there is always a sense that it might be a fluke season.  However, the Cardinals can't afford that.  They need Diaz to come out and play at an elite level again and prove that he deserves the hype that is now surrounding him.

Most Important Pitcher

Mike Leake

Mike Leake was one of the prizes of the 2016 offseason for the Cardinals.  However, his production did not match his paycheck as he went 9-12 with a 4.69 ERA.  They were hoping Leake would be able to solidify the top of their rotation.  He is entering the season at the bottom of it, and another season like last year might have him out of the rotation completely.  Mike Leake needs to re-establish himself as dominant starter so the Cardinals can once again have a dominant rotation.

Player to Watch

Luke Weaver

No one is ever happy when the words "Tommy John" are attached to a pitcher.  However, if anyone had any joy about them when it was announced that Cardinals' top prospect Alex Reyes was going to miss the season with Tommy John surgery, it was Luke Weaver.  Weaver is the Cardinals' #3 prospect and is also poised for a big league impact this season.  With Reyes down, Weaver moves up the list of pitchers ready to take a spot in the rotation if the big club needs it.  Watch for Weaver to be the next big arm to burst on the scene for a team that seems to have a limitless supply of pitchers.

2017 Predictions

2nd in NL Central

It is always a certainty that the Cardinals will compete the entire season.  Expect them to be in it all season long, if not in the division race, the Wild Card race for sure.  I have them coming up just short again this year.  Their roster lacks the pop it has sported in the past when they have made their deep postseason runs in recent years.  They could easily make their way into the playoffs, and probably make a deep run if they do (they are the Cardinals).  This just feels like another year where they will be just short.

Fearless Prediction

Carlos Martinez will be the NL starting pitcher in the All Star Game.

I have been a fan of Carlos Martinez for several years.  His arm is electric, and he has shown over the last few seasons that he should be considered one of the best young arms in the game.  I see him taking the next step in 2017 and being a superstar.  This would be fully realized with him being named the starter in Miami for the Mid-Summer Classic.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals every year seem to find a way to win their division no matter how competitive it is.  Will 2016 continue their dominance?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 100-62, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS

Really?  Of all the teams in the league, the Cardinals come out with the best record in baseball?  The NL Central boasted the three best records in baseball in 2015, and the Cardinals found their way on top of the pile ahead of the Pirates and Cubs.  Their season came back down to earth quickly in playoffs though, as the Cubs knocked them out pretty quickly in the NLDS.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals seemed to be connected to most of the high profile outfielders on the market this offseason.  They first wanted to hold on to Jason Heyward, but he chose to sign with the Cubs instead.  They were said to be going hard after Alex Gordon, but he chose to stay in Kansas City.  John Lackey also left, signing with the Cubs also.  When it came down to it, the Cardinals offseason moves really consisted of just one signing and one trade: they signed Mike Leake to replace John Lackey and traded John Jay for Jed Gyorko.  That's about it.  Everything else they plan on handling from within.

Most Important Hitter

Yadier Molina

The Cardinals pride themselves in being able to win with any lineup.  They truly practice the motto, "Next man up."  This is best exemplified by the fact that they won 100 games last year without their ace Adam Wainwright, and they plan on moving forward this year without a big priced free agent to replace Jason Heyward.  With all that said, there is one player on that team that is irreplaceable, and that is Yadier Molina.  He makes this club what it is.  The pitching staff is as good as it is because they throw to Molina.  He is like a coach on the field at all times.  He was pretty banged up last year, and almost didn't start this season due to injury.  He is getting older, entering his age 33 season.  He needs to stay healthy for the team to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Adam Wainwright

It is weird to say that the most important pitcher is a guy that missed most of a 100 win season last year, but it's true.  Adam Wainwright is the guy that makes this rotation great.  The young kids like Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha pitched great in his absence, but Wainwright is the proven ace needed at the top of that rotation.  He is getting up there in age, entering his age 34 season.  He is also coming off a torn Achilles injury.  Although it is not an arm injury, it can affect your pitching.  He needs to come back and be the perennial Cy Young contender once again, especially considering how strong their division is.

Player to Watch

Alex Reyes

As if the Cardinals weren't pitching rich already, 5 of their 8 top prospects are pitchers; fresh arms ready to go.  The best of the group is Alex Reyes, a 21 year old kid that should be ready to contribute in time for a playoff push.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

I think this is finally the year the Cardinals come down to earth a little bit.  Every team around them got significantly better this offseason.  I don't think the same can be said for the Cardinals.  The Pirates and Cubs have passed them up.  There wasn't much separating this group last season.  I think the Cardinals will be at the bottom of the three this time around.  With as much as other teams have improved around the league, I think it is very possible the Cardinals are on the outside of the playoff race also.  Then again, they are the Cardinals.  Maybe they win the World Series this year instead.

Fearless Predictions

Matt Holliday ends the 2016 season as a bench player.

Matt Holliday has quietly been one of the better players in baseball over the last decade.  He has been a model of consistency.  However, last year he was hit with the injury bug in 2015 and started to look old when he was out there.  With the youth movement in St. Louis, and the pressure put on them by division rivals, look for Holliday to end up on the bench by the end of the season if he struggles at all along the way.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

There are few things that are certain in sports, but one thing that has become a certainty over the last decade is that the St. Louis Cardinals are going to be really, really good.  Will 2015 keep consistency in the NL Central?

Last Season

90-72, 1st in NL Central, Lost to Giants in NLCS

For the fourth straight year, the Cardinals made the playoffs.  They have garnered a reputation of being fairly unstoppable in the postseason, but if there is anything more unstoppable than the Cardinals in the postseason, it's the Giants on an even numbered year in the postseason.  So they lost out to the eventual champions, but looked geared up for another run in 2015.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals front office had to deal with a very delicate situation this offseason.  During the World Series, their 22 year old phenom and rightfielder of the future Oscar Taveras was killed in a car accident.  They felt a need to honor the memory of their fallen teammate who had so much still in front of him, but they also needed to make accommodations for the hole his death left in their 2015 lineup.  So in a year where their lineup looked set, they pulled off a blockbuster trade, bringing over Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden from the Braves, giving up starting pitcher Shelby Miller and prospects.  On a personal side, this was a move the Cardinals didn't want to make.  On a baseball side, they replaced one of baseball's top prospects with an established borderline All Star.  By trading Miller, they took advantage of the stockpile of pitchers they have stored up in their system.  So they gained Heyward without really losing anything.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Carpenter

In 2013, Matt Carpenter burst on the scene as the latest Cardinal to come out of nowhere and be amazing.  He hit .318 and was a 6.0 win player according to WAR.  In 2014, they moved him to third base and his production dipped some.  His batting average fell to .272 and his WAR total was cut in half.  He went from being one of the best hitting middle infielders in the league to an average hitting third baseman with none of the traditional power we have come to expect from third basemen.  The Cardinals need Carpenter to be the steady consistent hitter in that lineup that is always on base.  He needs to return to his 2013 form for the Cardinals to be elite.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Wacha

In any deep postseason run, there is always a young prospect or two that come out of nowhere to be impact players in the stretch run before their first full season in the league.  Last year, it was Brandon Finnegan for the Royals and Joe Panik for the Giants.  In 2013, it was Michael Wacha for the Cardinals.  The way he pitched in the postseason had everybody buzzing, winning NLCS MVP.  He was to become a two-headed monster with Adam Wainwright at the top of the rotation in 2014.  I predicted him to win Rookie of the Year in the NL last year.  His 2014 instead became an injury-shortened season that never lived up to any of the hype he had built for himself.  Now that he is healthy, he is being counted on being that phenom that announced his presence with authority in 2013.

Player to Watch

Carlos Martinez

Like I said earlier, the amount of talent the Cardinals have stockpiled in their system should not be allowed.  The pitcher that seems destined for a breakout year this time around is Carlos Martinez.  Short in stature but mighty in power, many compare his stuff and style to recent Hall of Fame inductee Pedro Martinez.  He spent most of the 2014 season in the bullpen, but he is competing for a rotation spot this year.  If he makes the rotation, he could be one of the players everyone is talking about by mid-season.

Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

One certainty in baseball right now is the Cardinals are going to be very good.  I have them just short of winning their division this year, but they do make the playoffs once again and cause trouble on their way through.  The Cardinals right now remind me some of the Atlanta Braves teams of the 1990's.  They were so good so often, it was easy to take them for granted.  I am probably vastly underestimating them with this prediction.  It will be interesting to see what happens as core pieces like Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina continue to age, what the front office decides to do.  It looks like those decisions are still a couple years off.  Right now, they will continue to be one of the consistently best teams in baseball.