2017 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

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In 2016, the St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010.  In 2011, the Cardinals won the World Series.  Will they have the same luck in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Matt Holliday ends the 2016 season as a bench player.

2016 Results

86-76, 2nd in NL Central

It didn't feel right when we hit October in 2016 and the Cardinals were not a part of the postseason ride.  The Cards have been declining for several seasons, and the talent level finally caught up with them.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Matt Holliday may have still been a starter by the end of the season, but he did have a good season as he put up a 0.3 WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals are always active in the offseason.  Their big move heading into 2017 was returning a favor to the rival Cubs.  Before 2016, the Cubs signed Jason Heyward out of St. Louis.  So before 2017, the Cardinals signed Dexter Fowler out of Chicago.  Outside of this move, the only other significant moves were subtractions, losing Jaime Garcia to a trade and the aging Matt Holliday to free agency.

Most Important Hitter

Aledmys Diaz

The Cardinals were not sure what to do at the start of 2016 when they knew Jhonny Peralta was going to miss the first chunk of the season due to a PED suspension.  Little did everyone know that Aledmys Diaz was going to emerge as an All Star shortstop.  The year ended with Diaz being listed with the rest of the outstanding young shortstops in our game today.  When a guy comes out of nowhere like that, there is always a sense that it might be a fluke season.  However, the Cardinals can't afford that.  They need Diaz to come out and play at an elite level again and prove that he deserves the hype that is now surrounding him.

Most Important Pitcher

Mike Leake

Mike Leake was one of the prizes of the 2016 offseason for the Cardinals.  However, his production did not match his paycheck as he went 9-12 with a 4.69 ERA.  They were hoping Leake would be able to solidify the top of their rotation.  He is entering the season at the bottom of it, and another season like last year might have him out of the rotation completely.  Mike Leake needs to re-establish himself as dominant starter so the Cardinals can once again have a dominant rotation.

Player to Watch

Luke Weaver

No one is ever happy when the words "Tommy John" are attached to a pitcher.  However, if anyone had any joy about them when it was announced that Cardinals' top prospect Alex Reyes was going to miss the season with Tommy John surgery, it was Luke Weaver.  Weaver is the Cardinals' #3 prospect and is also poised for a big league impact this season.  With Reyes down, Weaver moves up the list of pitchers ready to take a spot in the rotation if the big club needs it.  Watch for Weaver to be the next big arm to burst on the scene for a team that seems to have a limitless supply of pitchers.

2017 Predictions

2nd in NL Central

It is always a certainty that the Cardinals will compete the entire season.  Expect them to be in it all season long, if not in the division race, the Wild Card race for sure.  I have them coming up just short again this year.  Their roster lacks the pop it has sported in the past when they have made their deep postseason runs in recent years.  They could easily make their way into the playoffs, and probably make a deep run if they do (they are the Cardinals).  This just feels like another year where they will be just short.

Fearless Prediction

Carlos Martinez will be the NL starting pitcher in the All Star Game.

I have been a fan of Carlos Martinez for several years.  His arm is electric, and he has shown over the last few seasons that he should be considered one of the best young arms in the game.  I see him taking the next step in 2017 and being a superstar.  This would be fully realized with him being named the starter in Miami for the Mid-Summer Classic.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals every year seem to find a way to win their division no matter how competitive it is.  Will 2016 continue their dominance?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 100-62, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS

Really?  Of all the teams in the league, the Cardinals come out with the best record in baseball?  The NL Central boasted the three best records in baseball in 2015, and the Cardinals found their way on top of the pile ahead of the Pirates and Cubs.  Their season came back down to earth quickly in playoffs though, as the Cubs knocked them out pretty quickly in the NLDS.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals seemed to be connected to most of the high profile outfielders on the market this offseason.  They first wanted to hold on to Jason Heyward, but he chose to sign with the Cubs instead.  They were said to be going hard after Alex Gordon, but he chose to stay in Kansas City.  John Lackey also left, signing with the Cubs also.  When it came down to it, the Cardinals offseason moves really consisted of just one signing and one trade: they signed Mike Leake to replace John Lackey and traded John Jay for Jed Gyorko.  That's about it.  Everything else they plan on handling from within.

Most Important Hitter

Yadier Molina

The Cardinals pride themselves in being able to win with any lineup.  They truly practice the motto, "Next man up."  This is best exemplified by the fact that they won 100 games last year without their ace Adam Wainwright, and they plan on moving forward this year without a big priced free agent to replace Jason Heyward.  With all that said, there is one player on that team that is irreplaceable, and that is Yadier Molina.  He makes this club what it is.  The pitching staff is as good as it is because they throw to Molina.  He is like a coach on the field at all times.  He was pretty banged up last year, and almost didn't start this season due to injury.  He is getting older, entering his age 33 season.  He needs to stay healthy for the team to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Adam Wainwright

It is weird to say that the most important pitcher is a guy that missed most of a 100 win season last year, but it's true.  Adam Wainwright is the guy that makes this rotation great.  The young kids like Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha pitched great in his absence, but Wainwright is the proven ace needed at the top of that rotation.  He is getting up there in age, entering his age 34 season.  He is also coming off a torn Achilles injury.  Although it is not an arm injury, it can affect your pitching.  He needs to come back and be the perennial Cy Young contender once again, especially considering how strong their division is.

Player to Watch

Alex Reyes

As if the Cardinals weren't pitching rich already, 5 of their 8 top prospects are pitchers; fresh arms ready to go.  The best of the group is Alex Reyes, a 21 year old kid that should be ready to contribute in time for a playoff push.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

I think this is finally the year the Cardinals come down to earth a little bit.  Every team around them got significantly better this offseason.  I don't think the same can be said for the Cardinals.  The Pirates and Cubs have passed them up.  There wasn't much separating this group last season.  I think the Cardinals will be at the bottom of the three this time around.  With as much as other teams have improved around the league, I think it is very possible the Cardinals are on the outside of the playoff race also.  Then again, they are the Cardinals.  Maybe they win the World Series this year instead.

Fearless Predictions

Matt Holliday ends the 2016 season as a bench player.

Matt Holliday has quietly been one of the better players in baseball over the last decade.  He has been a model of consistency.  However, last year he was hit with the injury bug in 2015 and started to look old when he was out there.  With the youth movement in St. Louis, and the pressure put on them by division rivals, look for Holliday to end up on the bench by the end of the season if he struggles at all along the way.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds finished 2015 in the cellar for the first time since 1983.  Will 2016 bring about a different result?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in NL Central

2015 Result: 64-98, 5th in NL Central

No one in 2015 had the loss column hit triple digits, however the Reds are one of several teams that sure came close.  The Reds got caught with an aging core and not enough talent ready to play to replenish the declining talent.  Even if they did, they had too much money committed to their roster that they couldn't really get rid of many of their problems.  Needless to say, their season end up as a disaster with few prospects to be better soon.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Starting at the 2015 Trade Deadline, the Reds started unloading some of their better talent to get back prospects that could bolster their farm system.  Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake was traded last season, then the offseason saw Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman moving on.  Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce were in serious trade talk as well, but the deals fell through.  They have started to show that their strategy is a franchise reset.

Most Important Hitter

Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce is one of the best hitters the Reds have left, however there is a different reason he is their most important hitter this year.  Bruce is the best trade chip the Reds still have.  If the season heads south quick, which a lot of people expect it to, the question stops being if Bruce gets traded, and switches to when Bruce gets traded.  How well the Reds orchestrate a trade of Jay Bruce will help determine how good they will be in the future and how long it takes them to get there.

Most Important Pitcher

Homer Bailey

The Reds are pretty shaky all around their lineup.  One of the biggest question marks entering the season for them is how good Homer Bailey will be.  Bailey missed most of last season with Tommy John surgery.  He might be ready in time for the season to start.  If this doesn't happen, or he struggles when he comes back, look for Homer Bailey's season to become an audition for all teams looking to trade for an established starter at the Trade Deadline.

Player to Watch

Jesse Winker

A team like the Cincinnati Reds usually has a lot of opportunities to get their prospects time in the big leagues.  As they are attempting to build from the ground up, their top prospects will slowly but surely work their way in.  Jesse Winker is their top prospect right now.  This left-handed hitting outfielder could be a call-up if a Jay Bruce trade ever gets finalized.

2016 Prediction

4th in NL Central

It looks like the Reds have a little farther to fall before they can bounce back.  The only reason they are not in last place is because of a team in their division that is even worse off (mainly, because they don't have Joey Votto).  The Reds will be in the bottom five of the league, especially considering how good the top three in the division are.  Hopefully, it can start to turn around soon, but not in 2016.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Bryan Price will be fired before the All Star Break.

When you have a team like the Reds, it is hard to determine whether the poor play on the field is a result of the aging roster or a bad manager.  Either way, the manager ends up getting blamed at some point.  Bryan Price barely made it to 2016 after their terrible 2015.  Pitching coaches rarely make good managers, and I don't think Price is an exception to that rule.