2021 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #21

The Chicago Cubs pulled out a division win in 2020, but were swept out of the expanded playoff field pretty quick.  Now there are talks of cutting payroll and a potential tearing down of the roster that broke the dreaded curse.  Will 2021 see more success or be the start of the rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#18 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Willson Contreras

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - Nico Hoerner

2020 Results

#9 - 34-26, 1st in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

Everyone thought the Cubs were due for a down year in 2020 (at least I did).  Instead, behind rookie manager David Ross, the Cubs won the division and hosted a first round playoff series against the surprise of the 2020 season, the Miami Marlins.  The Cubs were eliminated without winning a game, leaving many to wonder if 2020 was actually a successful season or not.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cubs offseason was defined by two things: who left and who is still there.  First, leaving the club were Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish, veteran pitcher Jon Lester, and slugger Kyle Schwarber.  Also leaving was team president Theo Epstein, the man responsible for breaking the championship curses in both Boston and Chicago.  The one still there is Kris Bryant.  The Cubs are in the business of cutting payroll right now, and Bryant is due to have a big payday after the 2021 season.  Rumors swirled all offseason that he would be traded, but he is still manning the hot corner for the Cubs.  Coming in were some minor pickups like Joc Pederson, Zach Davies, and Jake Arrieta to fill in for the departing players.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

So much heading into this season revolves around Kris Bryant for the Cubs.  It reminds me some of the Rockies heading into last season being held hostage by the Nolan Arenado trade talks.  At the same time, Bryant is coming off a pretty disappointing 2020 season.  He barely cracked a .200 average with a 73 OPS+ in the shortened season.  Now Bryant is in his contract year (which many would argue shouldn't be happening thanks to service time manipulation).  Bryant's success in 2021 could lead to greater team success for the Cubs.  It could also lead to greater trade value at the deadline this year.  It could also lead to a bigger payday for Bryant next offseason.  Poor production could easily lead to more drama over what the Cubs are going to do with Kris Bryant.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

With the departures of Yu Darvish and Jon Lester, the Cubs' rotation is lacking a lot of star power and established dominance.  The holdover in the rotation is Kyle Hendricks.  Ever since he made his debut in 2014, he has quietly been a dominant force for the Cubs using control and finesse in a way that draws comparisons to Greg Maddux.  Now he is by far the main man for the Cubs.  He is going to need to continue his dominance and mentor some young pitchers ready to make an impact for the bug club.

Prospect to Watch

Brailyn Marquez

One of those young arms Hendricks will be mentoring is Brailyn Marquez.  The top prospect in the Cubs' farm system, the 22 year old lefty got one appearance in 2020 that went pretty horrifically.  Now he is competing for a spot in the rotation.  If he doesn't break Spring Training with the big club, look for him to be a call up sometime soon.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The Cubs still have a lot of talent, but the NL Central is a pretty deep division (with the exception of the Pirates).  The depth of the division, as well as the questions around what direction the team is heading, will keep the Cubs from having a huge impact in 2021.  With that said, in that division, you can't really count them out.

Fearless Prediction

There will only player in the dugot from the Cubs' World Series roster on Opening Day 2022 will be manager David Ross.

What was supposed to be a long-lasting dynasty appears to be all but over 5 years later.  All indications show there is no way Kris Bryant returns next season.  He might not even last till the end of this season.  Anthony Rizzo is in the last year of his deal, as is Javy Baez.  Jake Arrieta is only back for one year.  Willson Contreras appears to be an attractive trade chip that could be moved.  That leaves just Jason Heyward and Kyle Hendricks.  If the Cubs go full rebuild here, one or both of those players could also be moved.  The likelihood that happens is low, but it's possible the entirety of that magical team will be gone very soon.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

#3

The Chicago Cubs made history in 2016 and finally ended the curse that kept them from winning a championship since 1908.  Can they make history again in 2017 and repeat?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

Jake Arrieta will spend at least 1-2 months on the DL.

2016 Results

103-58, 1st in NL Central, won the World Series

Going into the 2016 season, few would argue against the fact that the Cubs were the most talented team in the league.  Being so young, I thought they were one or two years away from finally putting it all together.  I was wrong.  They dominated the regular season and showed that destiny was on their side by making their way all the way to the championship.  It is impressive to pull off something like this when the pressure of so much futility is on your backs.  The Cubs overcame that and did the impossible.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Jake Arrieta may not have ended up on the DL, but he did see a drop off in production as his work load finally caught up with him.

Additions / Subtractions

The scary part when you think about the 2017 Cubs is they are bringing back almost the exact same roster they had in 2016.  Very few changes were made simply because so much of their roster is so young.  Aroldis Chapman went back to the Yankees, but the Cubs traded Jorge Soler to the Royals for the dominant Wade Davis.  Jason Hammel signed elsewhere in free agency, but he was replaced with veteran Brett Anderson.  Dexter Fowler signed with the Cardinals, but he was replaced internally with the Cubs' outstanding farm system.  Not to mention, Kyle Schwarber is now healthy, considered one of the best young hitters in baseball.

Most Important Hitter

Jason Heyward

If anyone on the Cubs was disappointed by the way the 2016 season turned out, it was Jason Heyward.  After signing the huge contract before 2016, Heyward's bat fell asleep, leading to a .230 average with 7 home runs and 49 RBI's.  This led to Heyward watching most of the postseason from the bench.  The Cubs are talented all over the field, but unless Heyward starts to produce at the plate like he is capable of, 2016 might be remembered for both the World Series win and one of the worst free agent contracts ever given.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

For the second year in a row, a pitcher for the Cubs came out of nowhere and is now considered one of the best in the game.  2015 brought us Jake Arrieta.  2016 brought us Kyle Hendricks.  Although the Cubs' lineup is filled with young talent, their starting rotation is quite old, with Hendricks the only pitcher under 30 starting the year in the rotation.  With Jon Lester continuing to age and Jake Arrieta entering his contract year, the Cubs need Hendricks to emerge as the ace of the staff moving into the future.

Player to Watch

Albert Almora, Jr.

The player benefiting the most from the absence of Dexter Fowler in the Cubs' outfield is rookie Albert Almora, Jr.  Almora got a decent run last season, playing in 47 games.  He barely kept his rookie status for 2017, and now he is entering the season as the team's starting centerfielder.  The Cubs have an outstanding farm system, but Almora is one of the few great prospects they have that is poised to make an impact for the Cubs this season.  Some might have an impact through trade, but Almora will be patrolling the outfield for the Cubs for awhile.

2017 Prediction

1st in NL Central, lose in NLCS

The Cubs are once again the most talented team in baseball.  I see them once again having the best record in baseball.  With all that said, it is extremely hard to win back-to-back World Series championships.  It hasn't happened in almost 20 years, and it has only happened three times for a National League team.  (One of those three just happens to be the last time the Cubs won...)  The Cubs will have a good run, but I see the age of their pitching catch up to them, leaving them just short of the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

The Chicago Cubs will set the record for most wins in a season in 2017.

I see the Cubs writing a similar script to the Golden State Warriors in 2017.  The Warriors were the up-and-coming team everyone loved that played their way to a championship in 2015.  The 2016 Warriors won more games than any other NBA team in history, but they couldn't win the title.  I see the Cubs following a similar path.  Everyone loved the 2016 Cubs as they won their title.  With the makeup of this team, I could see them respond this season by having a historic run.  However, it seems every historic run ends in something less than a championship.  Look for the Cubs to top the 116 win total set by the 2001 Mariners and the 1906 Cubs.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals every year seem to find a way to win their division no matter how competitive it is.  Will 2016 continue their dominance?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 100-62, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS

Really?  Of all the teams in the league, the Cardinals come out with the best record in baseball?  The NL Central boasted the three best records in baseball in 2015, and the Cardinals found their way on top of the pile ahead of the Pirates and Cubs.  Their season came back down to earth quickly in playoffs though, as the Cubs knocked them out pretty quickly in the NLDS.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals seemed to be connected to most of the high profile outfielders on the market this offseason.  They first wanted to hold on to Jason Heyward, but he chose to sign with the Cubs instead.  They were said to be going hard after Alex Gordon, but he chose to stay in Kansas City.  John Lackey also left, signing with the Cubs also.  When it came down to it, the Cardinals offseason moves really consisted of just one signing and one trade: they signed Mike Leake to replace John Lackey and traded John Jay for Jed Gyorko.  That's about it.  Everything else they plan on handling from within.

Most Important Hitter

Yadier Molina

The Cardinals pride themselves in being able to win with any lineup.  They truly practice the motto, "Next man up."  This is best exemplified by the fact that they won 100 games last year without their ace Adam Wainwright, and they plan on moving forward this year without a big priced free agent to replace Jason Heyward.  With all that said, there is one player on that team that is irreplaceable, and that is Yadier Molina.  He makes this club what it is.  The pitching staff is as good as it is because they throw to Molina.  He is like a coach on the field at all times.  He was pretty banged up last year, and almost didn't start this season due to injury.  He is getting older, entering his age 33 season.  He needs to stay healthy for the team to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Adam Wainwright

It is weird to say that the most important pitcher is a guy that missed most of a 100 win season last year, but it's true.  Adam Wainwright is the guy that makes this rotation great.  The young kids like Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha pitched great in his absence, but Wainwright is the proven ace needed at the top of that rotation.  He is getting up there in age, entering his age 34 season.  He is also coming off a torn Achilles injury.  Although it is not an arm injury, it can affect your pitching.  He needs to come back and be the perennial Cy Young contender once again, especially considering how strong their division is.

Player to Watch

Alex Reyes

As if the Cardinals weren't pitching rich already, 5 of their 8 top prospects are pitchers; fresh arms ready to go.  The best of the group is Alex Reyes, a 21 year old kid that should be ready to contribute in time for a playoff push.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

I think this is finally the year the Cardinals come down to earth a little bit.  Every team around them got significantly better this offseason.  I don't think the same can be said for the Cardinals.  The Pirates and Cubs have passed them up.  There wasn't much separating this group last season.  I think the Cardinals will be at the bottom of the three this time around.  With as much as other teams have improved around the league, I think it is very possible the Cardinals are on the outside of the playoff race also.  Then again, they are the Cardinals.  Maybe they win the World Series this year instead.

Fearless Predictions

Matt Holliday ends the 2016 season as a bench player.

Matt Holliday has quietly been one of the better players in baseball over the last decade.  He has been a model of consistency.  However, last year he was hit with the injury bug in 2015 and started to look old when he was out there.  With the youth movement in St. Louis, and the pressure put on them by division rivals, look for Holliday to end up on the bench by the end of the season if he struggles at all along the way.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs had a breakout season in 2015, leaving many asking if this might be the year they finally win their first championship since 1908.  Can they live up to their 2016 expectations?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central

2015 Result: 97-65, 3rd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS

I had their position in the division right because of the depth of that division.  However, I thought they were one year away from making any impact in the postseason.  Well, they ended up getting all the way to the NLCS before running into the Mets' pitching.  This 2015 result leaves everyone looking for them to take the next step, especially considering how young they are.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

As if their lineup wasn't loaded enough last season, the Cubs went out and bought one of the top free agent bats on the market in Jason Heyward.  They also, unexpectedly, brought back Dexter Fowler after that strange ordeal with the Baltimore Orioles.  To add depth to their rotation, they brought in the ageless John Lackey to slide in after Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.  They seem to be getting closer to having a fully complete team.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

Last season, Kris Bryant had the breakout season that everyone wishes for.  He was possibly the most hyped rookie coming into the season, and somehow exceeded every expectation.  Entering 2016, Bryant is being billed as a superstar of the sport.  If the Cubs want to have the historic season they are hoping for, Kris Bryant needs to avoid a sophomore slump.  Looking at the lofty expectations, it seems inevitable that he will slump at least a little bit.  However, I also didn't think he could be as good as everyone said he would be last season either.  So who knows...

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Lester

Jon Lester was brought in before last season to be the anchor of a staff that needed one.  By the end of the season, he was a complementary piece to the ridiculous run Jake Arrieta was on.  However, it wasn't just Arrieta's brilliance that pushed Lester into the background.  Lester did not have a great season.  It was good, but it was nowhere near the lofty heights he has been in the past.  He is now entering his age 32 season.  The Cubs need last season to be a blip on the radar for Lester and not a sign of things to come.

Player to Watch

Carl Edwards, Jr.

With players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber bursting on the scene in 2015, it has left the Cubs' farm system somewhat depleted of talent ready to help the big club now.  One prospect that has a potential to impact the team in 2016 is Carl Edwards, Jr.  He made his debut last year, coming out of the bullpen a few times.  The Cubs are set with their lineup, but their pitching is nowhere near invincible.  They also trend on the older side.  This could leave room for a guy like Edwards to get some significant time in 2016.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

The Cubs are definitely one of the elite teams in the league entering the year.  I see them taking a big step forward and winning possibly the most competitive division in baseball.  However, their rotation is still something that is less than elite, and I see that coming back to bite them in the playoffs.  You will have teams like the Mets, Giants, Dodgers, and Pirates facing off against them in the playoffs.  The Cubs rotation can't compete with these teams.  Their offense can score, but with the elite pitching staffs around, the Cubs' pitching needs to be better for them to break the "Curse of the Billy Goat."

Fearless Prediction

Jake Arrieta will spend at least 1-2 months on the DL.

For the last season and a half, Jake Arrieta has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball.  He turned around a mediocre career and became one of the best pitchers in baseball, winning the Cy Young in 2015 over guys like Greinke and Kershaw.  Before 2014, the most innings he had thrown in a season was 119 in 2011.  Then he threw 156 innings in 2014 and 229 innings in 2015.  Add another 20 innings to that 2015 total thanks to their postseason run.  He started the postseason on fire, but ran out of gas near the end.  That means he threw almost 100 more innings last season than he had ever thrown before in a single year.  Entering his age 30 season, and getting that kind of workload for the first time, he seems bound for an injury at some point this year.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

There are few things that are certain in sports, but one thing that has become a certainty over the last decade is that the St. Louis Cardinals are going to be really, really good.  Will 2015 keep consistency in the NL Central?

Last Season

90-72, 1st in NL Central, Lost to Giants in NLCS

For the fourth straight year, the Cardinals made the playoffs.  They have garnered a reputation of being fairly unstoppable in the postseason, but if there is anything more unstoppable than the Cardinals in the postseason, it's the Giants on an even numbered year in the postseason.  So they lost out to the eventual champions, but looked geared up for another run in 2015.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals front office had to deal with a very delicate situation this offseason.  During the World Series, their 22 year old phenom and rightfielder of the future Oscar Taveras was killed in a car accident.  They felt a need to honor the memory of their fallen teammate who had so much still in front of him, but they also needed to make accommodations for the hole his death left in their 2015 lineup.  So in a year where their lineup looked set, they pulled off a blockbuster trade, bringing over Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden from the Braves, giving up starting pitcher Shelby Miller and prospects.  On a personal side, this was a move the Cardinals didn't want to make.  On a baseball side, they replaced one of baseball's top prospects with an established borderline All Star.  By trading Miller, they took advantage of the stockpile of pitchers they have stored up in their system.  So they gained Heyward without really losing anything.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Carpenter

In 2013, Matt Carpenter burst on the scene as the latest Cardinal to come out of nowhere and be amazing.  He hit .318 and was a 6.0 win player according to WAR.  In 2014, they moved him to third base and his production dipped some.  His batting average fell to .272 and his WAR total was cut in half.  He went from being one of the best hitting middle infielders in the league to an average hitting third baseman with none of the traditional power we have come to expect from third basemen.  The Cardinals need Carpenter to be the steady consistent hitter in that lineup that is always on base.  He needs to return to his 2013 form for the Cardinals to be elite.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Wacha

In any deep postseason run, there is always a young prospect or two that come out of nowhere to be impact players in the stretch run before their first full season in the league.  Last year, it was Brandon Finnegan for the Royals and Joe Panik for the Giants.  In 2013, it was Michael Wacha for the Cardinals.  The way he pitched in the postseason had everybody buzzing, winning NLCS MVP.  He was to become a two-headed monster with Adam Wainwright at the top of the rotation in 2014.  I predicted him to win Rookie of the Year in the NL last year.  His 2014 instead became an injury-shortened season that never lived up to any of the hype he had built for himself.  Now that he is healthy, he is being counted on being that phenom that announced his presence with authority in 2013.

Player to Watch

Carlos Martinez

Like I said earlier, the amount of talent the Cardinals have stockpiled in their system should not be allowed.  The pitcher that seems destined for a breakout year this time around is Carlos Martinez.  Short in stature but mighty in power, many compare his stuff and style to recent Hall of Fame inductee Pedro Martinez.  He spent most of the 2014 season in the bullpen, but he is competing for a rotation spot this year.  If he makes the rotation, he could be one of the players everyone is talking about by mid-season.

Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

One certainty in baseball right now is the Cardinals are going to be very good.  I have them just short of winning their division this year, but they do make the playoffs once again and cause trouble on their way through.  The Cardinals right now remind me some of the Atlanta Braves teams of the 1990's.  They were so good so often, it was easy to take them for granted.  I am probably vastly underestimating them with this prediction.  It will be interesting to see what happens as core pieces like Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina continue to age, what the front office decides to do.  It looks like those decisions are still a couple years off.  Right now, they will continue to be one of the consistently best teams in baseball.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a rare down year, which was followed by an even rarer selling spree this offseason.  What will the team look like when the dust settles?

Last Season

79-83, 2nd in NL East

For only the third time since Bobby Cox took over as manager in 1991, the Atlanta Braves finished with a record below .500.  However, their division was so weak last year it was still good for second place.  There were some good things that happened, but it was also clear by the end of the season that some changes were needed for the team to get back to its expected success.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

Like I said, changes were needed.  Like I said, they were not the changes Atlanta was used to seeing.  The revamped front office saw a roster that was good, but not great.  They also saw a depleted farm system that would be bringing no help in the future.  So the Braves sacrificed some marginal success in the short-term to improve their chances to be great in the long term.  With this mindset, Atlanta dealt Evan Gattis, Tommy La Stella, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward.  The nucleus that was supposed to bring back the glory days of Braves baseball was gone.  However, the farm system was replenished with top end talent as they began to build towards the future.  The only major additions that will affect the squad this season were Shelby Miller coming over in the Heyward trade and Nick Markakis signing in free agency.  However, the farm system was flooded with new talent, with five of the top 10 and 11 of the top 20 prospects in their system being added in offseason trades this year.  So depending on your definition, this offseason was a success for the Braves.

Most Important Hitter

Chris Johnson

Two years ago, Chris Johnson was winning a batting title while replacing Braves legend Chipper Jones.  Last year, his batting average dropped 60 points.  For the Braves to show any signs of success in the big club this year, Johnson needs to return, maybe not all the way to his 2013 form, but at least start to look like the formidable hitter he did that year.

Most Important Pitcher

Shelby Miller

The Braves have been defined by their pitching ever since the days of Glavine, Smotlz, and Maddux.  Shelby Miller came over from the pitching-rich St. Louis Cardinals in the Jason Heyward deal as a guy who needed a fresh start.  If he is at his best, he could challenge Julio Teheran for the ace of the staff.  However, that potential has not been yet in the big leagues.  With the amount of talent now flowing through the farm system, Miller better figure it out soon or else he may be changing addresses again.  Maybe Atlanta is just what he needed.

Player to Watch

Christian Bethancourt

Why did the Braves let Brian McCann walk in free agency two years ago?  Why did the Braves trade lumberjack Evan Gattis away this year?  Christian Bethancourt is why.  He has been their catcher of the future for years, and after getting a taste of the majors last season, the future is now for this 23 year old backstop.  The Braves were smart bringing in a professional veteran like AJ Pierzynski to mentor Bethancourt throughout the season.  Watch for him to be a standout for the Braves this year.

Prediction

3rd in NL East

Many predictions show the Braves falling further this year, but there are too many proven pieces left on the club in Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, and Craig Kimbrel to see them drop much further than this.  They definitely took a step back this year from where they were a year ago, but it will pay off in the future.  In the meantime, we may need to put up with some Braves baseball that is below the caliber we have become accustomed to.