2017 Pre-Season Profile: New York Yankees

#15

The New York Yankees had a transition year in 2016 by dropping some older veterans and letting the kids take over.  It led to some late success for the team, but are they ready to contend in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in AL East

Aroldis Chapman will not end the season as a Yankee.

2016 Results

84-78, 4th in AL East

I thought the Yankees were going to fall apart in 2016 as their age was finally going to catch up with them.  However, they somehow rode that fine line of rebuilding while still competing.  Some of the moves that did this were the trade of Andrew Miller to the Indians and the (successfully predicted) trade of Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs.  All this led to a successful season with all things considered.  One of the more interesting moments of their season was the semi-forced mid-season retirement of the one and only Alex Rodriguez.

Additions / Subtractions

The Yankees had a fascinating offseason, bringing in some veterans to complement their new young core.  Veterans Matt Holliday and Chris Carter were brought in to bolster the lineup.  Aroldis Chapman was brought back in to once again anchor the bullpen.  The main subtractions were the retirements of A-Rod and Mark Teixeira and the moving on of veterans Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran (traded mid-season).  With all things considered, it was a pretty quiet offseason when you consider the standard the Yankees have set for themselves.

Most Important Hitter

Gary Sanchez

One of the reasons the Yankees had such a strong finish to their season in 2016 was the emergence of catcher Gary Sanchez.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 homers with 42 RBI's, gathering a 3.0 WAR.  If you project those numbers out over a full season, it is pretty staggering where they would have ended up.  Optimistic Yankee fans already are voting him into the Hall of Fame.  However, most baseball people are wondering if he was a fluke or the real deal.  Is he the next great catcher, or the next Jesus Montero.  Montero also had a huge second half as a rookie one year.  They used him to trade for Michael Pineda, and he never reached the promise of that first run.  The Yankees sure are hoping Sanchez is not another Montero since they are making him the newest face of their franchise.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Pineda

Speaking of Michael Pineda, the Yankees need him to finally step up.  It's insane to think that, as disappointing as Pineda has been, the Yankees got the better end of that deal between them and the Mariners.  This might be one of the most disappointing trades on both sides in history.  Michael Pineda made an All Star Team in his rookie year with the Mariners, looking like a future ace.  After the trade, a major shoulder injury cost him about two and a half years.  He has only had two full seasons since then, and his ERA hasn't come close to dropping below 4.00.  With Tanaka solidified as the ace of the staff, CC Sabathia hitting the twilight of his career, and youngsters like Luis Severino still trying to prove themselves, a guy like Pineda is crucial to establishing a dominant pitching staff.  They need him to step up.

Player to Watch

Aaron Judge

Top prospects like Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier are not quite ready for the Show (Frazier is closer than Torres), however Aaron Judge is the one to watch this season.  Judge is a beast!  At 6'7" and 275 pounds, Judge will be making the Opening Day start in rightfield for the Pinstripes.  Having made his debut last season, he showed a glimpse of what he can do moving forward.  He will be looked to as a centerpiece of the Baby Bronx Bombers.

2017 Prediction

3rd in AL East

The youth movement in the Bronx is going to lead to a fun season.  They are still a year or two away from really competing, but they are well on their way.  The fact that the Yankees are trusting these kids to be the heart of their team says a lot.  The last time they did this they handed the franchise over to players like Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter.  In a few years, they could be talking about these Yankees the same way the talk about last year's Cubs and those Yankees teams of the 90's.

Fearless Prediction

Brett Gardner will be traded mid-season.

The Yankees are not quite done tearing down their past.  Brett Gardner is one of the holdovers from the old regime.  A top prospect like Clint Frazier is the future for the Yankees.  They are going to want him patrolling their outfield sooner rather than later.  Moving a guy like Gardner will allow that to happen.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: New York Yankees

In the last couple days, pitchers and catchers have started to report to Spring Training.  This means baseball season is just around the corner.  Every year, the baseball offseason is one of the most interesting in all of sports as teams work to remake and revamp their teams through trades, free agents, or their farm system.  No sport has rosters as fluid in the offseason as baseball.  This makes Spring Training an exciting time for all baseball fans as we get our first look at what each team looks like this year.  Last year, I attempted to write a prediction article for every team in the league.  I came up a little short when the season started.  This season, I am starting with the teams I didn't get to last season, starting with the Yankees.

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 4th in AL East

2015 Results: 87-75, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost to Astros in Wild Card Game

The Yankees really overachieved last year with an aging roster.  The resurgence of players like Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez led to an unexpected playoff birth for the Pinstripes in 2015.  However, a quick exit also came for them when they ran into the young upstart Astros.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

These are not the Yankees we are used to seeing in the offseason.  They came out early on in the winter to say they were not going to sign any of the big ticket free agents.  High price tags still placed on aging stars like Teixeira, A-Rod, Carlos Beltran, and CC Sabathia can even scare off the deepest of pocketbooks from spending.  However, it didn't stop them completely from making improvements to their roster.  They pulled off a trade for Starlin Castro as they continue to look for a replacement for Robinson Cano at second base.  The big move everyone has been talking about though is Aroldis Chapman coming in to give the Yankees a "super bullpen" that rivals the Royals of the past couple years.

Most Important Hitter

Mark Teixeira

For the Yankees to have another great season this year, all of their aging stars need to repeat their performance from the year before.  The most important of these is Mark Teixeira, mainly because of his insurance policy is no longer available.  Greg Bird, who had a really solid 2015 season, was meant to split time with Tex at first to keep him fresh.  However, shoulder surgery has knocked him out for the year, putting all the pressure back on the veteran.  Now, if nothing changes, the Yankees' option at first base if Tex gets hurt is Dustin Ackley.  I know from experience as a Mariners fan that that is not a strong option.  Teixeira has to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Masahiro Tanaka

Tanaka is being counted on as the ace of the Yankees' staff, however since an elbow injury halfway through his first season, Tanaka has been much less than that.  Since then, his elbow has been a ticking time bomb waiting for if and/or when that ligament will tear the rest of the way and he will need Tommy John.  The Yankees can't have that happen this season.  Not only that, but he needs to be the ace of the staff again.  He needs to pitch more than his 2015 total of 150 innings and get his ERA back down under 3.00 (3.51 in 2015).  If that happens, he will once again anchor that starting rotation.

Player to Watch

Robert Refsnyder

This spot is reserved for a player that could have a breakout rookie season in 2016.  I would say Luis Severino for this spot, but he played too much in 2015 to still qualify as a rookie.  The Yankees have higher profile prospects (Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo), but Refsnyder has the biggest opportunity to make an impact on this year's season.  He is listed as a second baseman, but the Yankees are hoping he can become their "super utility" along the lines of guys like Ben Zobrist and Josh Harrison.  After being a star for Arizona's CWS 2012 championship, he is no stranger to the pressures he will face playing in New York.  He has a good chance of making the Opening Day roster and having a big impact all around the field.

2016 Prediction

5th in AL East

I do not have much faith in the Yankees this year.  There are way too many question marks for this team.  Can Mark Teixeira stay healthy? Can Alex Rodriguez repeat his bounce back season?  Does Carlos Beltran have one more stellar season in him?  Can CC Sabathia return to former glory?  Will Masahiro Tanaka's elbow hold up another season?  How long will Aroldis Chapman be suspended for his off-the-field problems this offseason?  They have a roster that can win, but I don't see every one of these scenarios working out in the Yankees' favor in 2016, which is what has to happen for them to compete in the highly-competitive AL East.

Fearless Prediction

Aroldis Chapman will not end the season as a Yankee.

Aroldis Chapman was brought in by the Yankees with just one year left on his contract to bolster what was already one of the best bullpens in baseball.  If the team has the type of season I am predicting they have, don't be surprised if the Yankees turn around and unload the flame-throwing closer at the Trade Deadline for a haul of prospects and hit the reset button on that whole experiment.