2014 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

We are finally closing in on Oscar nomination morning (Thursday, January 16^th) and the live awards shows. It is clear that the frontrunner this season is Steve McQueen’s devastating 12 Years a Slave, which has been heralded as the next Schindler’s List, but at this point, I am getting the feeling that it could also be treated as more of a Lincoln-type movie by the major awards. What that means is that the race is still wide open. There are a bunch of dark-horses, and a handful of the preordained contenders are just getting their theatrical run. The voting has begun, so there is little that can happen in the coming weeks to change the fate of the films in contention. Check out my final predictions below and my ARTS AND TECHS PREDICTIONS as well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley – It is the frontrunner in most categories, and barring some unforeseen backlash, Ridley’s superb screenplay will be our winner.

 

2. The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter – Winter has already thrilled audiences with Boardwalk Empire, and it is difficult to pack that many words into 3 hours and keep it intelligent and vital throughout. He won’t win, but his nomination is looking very likely.

3. Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy – The third leg of the trilogy is perhaps the best screenplay achievement of them all. I cannot see these guys getting snubbed.

4. Philomena – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope – It is a little strange thinking about Steve Coogan being a nominee, but his movie will get the British vote. It seems like a very well-written and interesting script.

5. August: Osage County – Tracy Letts – My rule against putting movies based on plays in my predictions comes to an end here. The movie is going to be bigger than most expected, and the acting nominations have to mean something.

Others in contention

6. Captain Phillips – Billy Ray – I am not really convinced that the screenplay here is all that impressive, but Billy Ray is a name and the movie could be a dark horse contender in the major categories.

7. Blue Is the Warmest Color – Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix – The foreign film got the Diving Bell treatment by not competing for Foreign Language Film, which could bode well for the other major categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. American Hustle – Eric Singer, David O. Russell – Russell has been in and around the Oscars consistently for three films in a row, and this is yet another chance to give him that award that he is due.

2. Nebraska – Bob Nelson – If there is a little film that could, it is Nebraska. The screenplay is outstanding, every bit as good as Payne’s scripts.

3. Her – Spike Jonze – This is the most likely spot for this film to get recognized. It appears to be too far out there for the major awards, despite the mass of critic awards it has received thus far.

4. Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen – It is not his finest film, but his dramas are beloved by the Academy. Will they remember his film? I had my doubts about Midnight in Paris, and that performed exceedingly well without the potential acting noms.

5. Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler – Weinstein will not let the most important movie of the year be forgotten. This will be that interesting nomination that will surprise most people, much like say Margin Call and The Messenger, among others.

Others in contention

6. Inside Llewyn Davis – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – It feels a little strange not predicting the Coens, but the buzz around the film has faded.  It may still sneak in just on their merit alone.

7. Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron – It had an amazing screenplay, but science-fiction is not the Academy’s thing. Look for other major noms, but not here.

8. Enough Said – Nicole Holofcener – Gandolfini’s death seems to be helping this film find its audience. Holofcener has made some great films, none of which have received a single nom.

9. Saving Mr. Banks – Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith – The movie is super light and predictable, but it is Disney. If the movie continues to make a bunch of money, I expect the Oscar noms to come flooding its way.

10. Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Danny Strong – Another Weinstein movie that will be hard to forget come nomination morning, due to its overachieving box office.

11. Short Term 12 – Destin Cretton –  I am not entirely sure how this will be treated, but if there is a film that could come out of nowhere, it is this little festival favorite.

12. Dallas Buyers Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack – The movie had an underwhelming box office run, but its acting might be able to help the screenplay just enough to slide in.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle – Bill Simmons said that watching Jennifer Lawrence is like watching 1997-2001 Tiger Woods. That is the highest compliment you can ever give someone in their craft. She is Meryl Streep #2, except she is a huge box office star as well.

2. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave – Her nomination is guaranteed. Only if the film is in for a sweep, she can dethrone Lawrence. No one else can win this.

3. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County – She has gotten the important nominations, and she hasn’t been invited back since 2000 despite several Golden Globe noms. This will change that.

4. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – She is Oprah, and she supposedly has a scene-stealing part in the popular movie. I can’t see her missing out.

5. June Squibb – Nebraska – Only 10 times have actors gotten a SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice nom and then got snubbed by the Oscars. Squibb was recognized by all three, and even though she is not a typical nominee, she will get in. With a Ruby Dee-esque SAG win, she could jump out front.

Others in contention

6. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station – Her performance stands as one of the best from the year’s first half, and if people still remember it, she could easily get that validation nomination.

7. Margo Martindale – August: Osage County – Her successful work as a character actress in TV and such will help her. She needs to steal the show in the film to get in.

8. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine – Her Golden Globe nom helps her cause, as well as the fact that Woody’s supporting ladies always seem to be singled out. She could be a cool surprise.

9. Scarlett Johansson – Her – The Golden Globes considered her ineligible, but the Oscars have yet to do so. She is said to really drive that movie without ever appearing onscreen.

10. Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers Club – If the movie is beloved like it could be, she could be swept in. Many still think she got jobbed by her Juno snub.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Melissa Leo – Prisoners

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club – He always does great work, and he is dominating awards season so far. He should coast to a win if people have warmed up to him since Chapter 27.

2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave – He is not even going to campaign his incredible performance. Maybe that will work in his favor?

3. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips – He has really shown up in the early awards, and he is the emotional core of the film. I love his chances.

4. Daniel Bruhl – Rush – His film seems to be forgotten, except for his outstanding leading performance. Being in the wrong category ensures his status as a lock for a nom.

5. James Gandolfini – Enough Said – He has gotten a couple mentions so far, and he is said to be very sensitive in the film. Playing against type will help the recently deceased character actor.

Others in contention

6. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle – He just got in last year, and while he definitely does his thing in the movie, I feel like it may be a bit too much too quick for him.

7. Will Forte – Nebraska – Forte getting in would be like Maggie Gyllenhaal getting pulled in by Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Forte is definitely a lead in the movie and is extremely subtle. It is not a normal Oscar role, but if they love the movie, he could surprise us.

8. Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street – He steals basically the entire movie, and he is a recent nominee. If the movie wins over the Academy and nominates Leo, which it probably won’t, then he will probably get invited as well.

9. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks – Hanks could get a double nomination, but this film has not performed well thus far. Maybe the role is too effortless to get recognized in a category that is usually reserved for scene-stealers.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Sam Rockwell – The Way, Way Back

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine – Blanchett has not been back since 2007’s double nomination, which is too long for one of our best actresses. She owns the movie.

2. Sandra Bullock – Gravity – Her recent win will ensure her nomination and likely hurt her chances of winning.

3. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks – This is a classic role that is a lock for a nom and will never actually stand a chance at taking the award home.

4. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County – She is Streep, she is in.

5. Judi Dench – Philomena – Dame Judi Dench, snubbed last year for Skyfall, will get a makeup nomination. At least that is how the Academy will look at it. This category is basically over.

Others in contention

6. Brie Larson – Short Term 12 – If there is a performance that could dethrone one of the former winners who seem like locks, it would be this young rising star. Appearing in Don Jon and The Spectacular Now certainly helps her cause as well.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Berenice Bejo – The Past

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club – He stole The Wolf of Wall Street, dominated Mud, and has this career role. I bet he takes it home with his first nomination.

2. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave – He is guaranteed to get in, but something about his role just does not really scream Oscar. He is far too skilled and subtle of an actor.

3. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips – Hanks will get nominated here, his first nom since 2000. I can’t see this being his third win, though. He will have to wait to tie Day-Lewis.

4. Bruce Dern – Nebraska – I do not love his chances, but he is certainly a frontrunner to secure one of these last couple spots. He hasn’t been nominated since 1978, so this could validate a long career of memorable supporting roles.

5. Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – Mandela’s death might give this film and performance the boost it needed. It is playing everywhere, and everyone loves Elba. This seems like that “duh” performance on nomination morning that no one was really predicting, like Javier Bardem in Biutiful recently.

Others in contention

6. Robert Redford – All Is Lost – This is an actor’s acting role, but he got snubbed by SAG. Maybe he is just looked at as a director now. Redford having just one career acting nom is unacceptable.

7. Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – He got the SAG nom, but the film will really need the Weinstein push for the former winner to get nominated in this exceedingly crowded category.

8. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street – Leo is constantly snubbed (of those 10 times that actors got the BFCA, HFPA, and SAG noms with an Oscar snub, two were Leo). If he gets in, it would be reminiscent of Rooney Mara in 2011 or Joaquin Phoenix in 2012. The film is not Oscar stuff, but the director is one of their guys and the daring work of its star is undeniable. He may sneak a well-deserved and unexpected nomination.

9. Christian Bale – American Hustle – He absolutely disappears into his role. It may not be the most obvious Oscar role, but it is clear that he is developing a screen presence of an early De Niro.

10. Joaquin Phoenix – Her – There is something about this performance that makes me think that he is still in the running, despite getting snubbed by the important precursors.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Mads Mikkelsen – The Hunt

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity – The film is all about the vision of its director. Splitting Picture and Director is rare, but so is this achievement. I have him taking home the gold.

2. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave – He will win if the film is winning everything, most likely. Then again, in 1998 and 2000, the Best Picture winner basically swept everything except for Director, which went to an uncommon directing achievement. Is this the next in line of that group?

3. David O. Russell – American Hustle – Russell’s nomination is guaranteed…again. He can’t win this unless the film starts taking the major televised awards.

4. Alexander Payne – Nebraska – The Academy loves Mr. Payne, and of all his directions, this one might be his most impressive. It feels, looks, and sounds like a Payne film from start to finish, when he had nothing to do with the writing of it. He is one of a kind.

5. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street – I am not expecting the film to be super popular with the Academy, but the direction is one of his best recently and the Academy eats up everything he does.

Others in contention

6. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips – He got his lone nom for United 93, and while this film is not to that level, it does feature a very strong, Oscary directorial effort.

7. Spike Jonze – Her – He has been nominated before for something quirky (Being John Malkovich in 1999), but this does not seem quite as imagination-filled. Unless the Academy is desperate to give it some love in major categories, he will likely miss out.

8. Lee Daniels – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – He is a past nominee, and Weinstein has his back.

9. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens are always getting nominated, but this movie seems destined to be one of their first forgotten ones in a long time.

10. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine – Allen gets nominated for directing almost as much as writing. If his film really connected with the voters, then this nom would not surprise me at all.

11. Ron Howard – Rush – Howard is still one of the elite directors out there, and this is his best film in years. It is Oscar stuff, yet it faded quickly after its release. Can it be resurrected?

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) – It is the future classic, and one whose subject matter is very Oscar friendly. It will take a big surprise for it to be dethroned.

2. American Hustle (David O. Russell) – If there is a popular movie that could take over, it would be Russell’s breezy comedy-drama. I thought the same about Silver Lining’s Playbook, though…

3. Nebraska (Alexander Payne) – I can’t see this being a winner, but it could show up this high on several ballots. Maybe it is our best dark horse contender.

4. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) – Sci-fi is not treated well by the Academy, but since we have had more than five nominees, they have shown up here and there.

5. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass) – Maybe if the Academy really loved it then it could stand a chance. I just do not see it really competing for the win.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) – The PGA nom ensured that it is beloved by the people that matter, but winning is going to be hard for a movie so vulgar. The older voters are not going to let it happen.

7. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) – Allen’s flick got a boost by the PGA. The Academy will eat up anything he does with any sort of quality.

8. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee) – With the PGA and acting noms coming its way, I can see this being a movie that steadily gains momentum throughout the season.

9. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock) – Hancock looks like he is going to secure a second consecutive undeserved Best Picture nom.

10. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Lee Daniels) – I still think this has a shot, despite its PGA snub. Weinstein needs to remind everyone why it was so popular at the box office.

Others in contention

11. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen) – The Coens are normally here no matter what, but this movie seems different. They were even nominated here for A Serious Man, a movie that no one understood. I don’t know. I cannot get a read on this movie.

12. Her (Spike Jonze) – The PGA certainly helped the film’s chances, but I still just cannot picture this film being called on nomination morning in this category.

13. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler) – The movie is way too small to really compete for the major awards, but the Sundance win and Weinstein backing are hard to pass up. I am rooting for it.

14. Rush (Ron Howard) – If the Academy can remember how good this was, then it will be hard to leave off their top 10s.

15. August: Osage County (John Wells) – The acting nominations will help its cause, but I am not optimistic here.

16. Lone Survivor (Peter Berg) – This would be a The Blind Side-level shocker nomination. If it really rules the box office in the coming weeks, then watch out.

Thoughts? Predictions? Potential shockers? Who would you vote for? Comment below.

2014 Oscar Predictions: November

With a few of the contenders getting released already and the field narrowing down heading into the December awards season, it seemed like a fitting time to take one more stab at the Oscar predictions before the National Board of Review and Golden Globes show where the movies truly stand with voters. Since my last predictions, it was announced that Best Picture contenders The Monuments Men and Foxcatcher were pushed back to 2014, the latter due to editing issues. It is unfortunate for both, but maybe they can go against history and still contend in 2015. The Wolf of Wall Street was supposedly too long, pushed back to 2014, then compromised and placed on the Oscar-friendly release date of Christmas. I love that. It is by far my most anticipated of the year and an almost certain Oscar favorite. Without further ado, check out how the race is shaping up, and stay tuned for my Golden Globe predictions in the coming weeks!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley – It appears that this movie is heading into awards season as the heavy favorite. Seven of the last eight years, the Best Picture winner also won for its screenplay. The only one that didn’t was a silent movie…

2. Labor Day – Jason Reitman – Reitman is going against type with this movie, and it seems like the sort of drama that would get mentioned here. Reitman is still without a win, despite a few really popular Oscar movies.

3. Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy – This nomination is basically guaranteed, but can the third leg of one of the best trilogies ever actually take home the award? It certainly deserves it, but I can’t see it actually winning.

4. Philomena – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope – This movie seems like the one most likely to get the British vote. It sounds terrific, and early word claims that it is just that. If the performances ring true, then this should secure a nomination here without too much trouble.

5. Blue is the Warmest Color – Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix – It is the Cannes winner. It is a very female-centric movie. If the Academy can get past the NC-17 label, then this nomination would be a welcome addition and step forward for the old-timers.

Others in contention

6. The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter – The movie looks insane, but how great is the screenplay? I am hoping for the best, but as we saw with The Counselor, a popular writer’s first major screenplay doesn’t always pan out. This seems to be a very solid contender, though.

7. Short Term 12 – Destin Cretton – This movie is sort of a wildcard. There is always an indie that never really got a serious release that pops up in a couple categories. This could be that film.

8. August: Osage County – Tracy Letts – The Oscars are always hesitant to award a script based on a play. This type of performance piece could buck the trend.

9. Captain Phillips – Billy Ray – The movie is going to be a threat in several categories, but the screenplay seems to be pushing it. It was a solid script, but I am not sure if it will get the first place votes.

10. The Book Thief – Michael Petroni – It does not exactly have the pedigree of a contender, but the trailer looks great and certainly Academy-friendly. I would not be surprised if this gets a few mentions.

11. The Spectacular Now – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber – It will be an uphill climb with Before Midnight probably tapping into the same voter market, but it is one of the finest scripts of the year.

12. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – Steve Conrad – This film’s buzz is rampant, but the Oscar status is unknown. If it is a Best Picture contender, then Conrad’s script will probably be one of the main reasons.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. American Hustle – Eric Singer – The trailer looks amazing and well-written. The cast are certainly going to be putting Singer’s words to good use. It seems like an obvious frontrunner at this point.

2. Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen – It is Allen’s best screenplay in years. His dramas are usually rewarded with a nomination in this category at least.

3. Inside Llewyn Davis­ – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – The Coens are always getting nominated. The movie is a dark-horse Best Picture contender. I would be shocked if the Coens are not nominated here.

4. Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler – The movie has seemed to lose its buzz, but Weinstein will not allow it to completely go by the wayside. If Coogler is mentioned somewhere, it is here. The socially-relevant material is too good to pass up.

5. Prisoners – Aaron Guzikowski – It is a bit like Zodiac in terms of format. It is more conventional, though. It is a star-studded and gritty drama. It is this year’s Flight.

Others in contention

6. Nebraska – Bob Nelson – The movie looks really offbeat and interesting. We will see how Alexander Payne shapes the movie into his own without the writing credit.

7. Her – Spike Jonze – I have yet to get a good read on this movie, but it looks like it could be the next Eternal Sunshine or the next Punch-Drunk Love. Both are excellent, but the former is definitely what Oscar prefers.

8. Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Danny Strong – This is another Weinstein movie that dominated the box office for a solid month. When that happens, it is usually good for its awards chances.

9. Saving Mr. Banks – Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith – It is certainly the family-friendly movie that could either make a huge Oscar splash or be completely written off.

10. Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron – The movie is more about experience and visuals rather than screenplay. If the movie is in for major Oscar love, then this nomination will be become more and more likely.

11. Mud – Jeff Nichols – It is one of the best parts of the first half of the year, but just not enough people saw it. If the movie were to defy the odds and get mentioned somewhere, then this is where it will be. It still has the highest wide release Rotten Tomatoes score of the year.

12. Rush – Peter Morgan – The movie just seems way too Oscary for it to be forgotten. The awards buzz is lacking, but we will see with the NBR and such whether it stands a chance at the Oscars.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – She is Oprah. Her movie was hugely popular with audiences. She is a past nominee. She has to be the favorite.

2. Lupita Nyongo – 12 Years a Slave – She is the emotional center of the story. If the movie is in for a sweep, then she could go all the way.

3. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station – She had the most excruciating scene of the year. She wonderfully underplayed what would have been overdone by almost any other actress. Voters may want to reward the Oscar-winner with a validation nom.

4. Melissa Leo – Prisoners – Even though she is always a bit over-the-top, that is what the voters love. Her part is one of the more important ones in the movie, and she is almost unrecognizable. It seems like a performance that will be forgotten all awards season until Oscar nomination morning.

5. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle – Her character resembles Blake Lively’s part in The Town, but this is a much safer Oscar movie. She is maybe the most popular actress in the world at the moment. They cannot give her enough noms.

Others in contention

6. Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave – She is said to be one of the most hateful characters of the year. This seems like a wide detour from her normal parts. She could split votes with her co-stars, though.

7. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County – It is unclear which roles are truly lead and supporting. She has not been invited back since her win in 2000, despite several co-stars getting nominated. Could this be her big Oscar comeback?

8. Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers Club – Her part in the trailer seemed to be a bit less consequential than I had originally suspected, but the movie has Oscar written all over it. She could ride the film’s momentum all the way if it strikes a chord with wide audiences.

9. June Squibb – Nebraska – This would be a seriously random nomination, but she is said to have a scene-stealing part. If the movie is an About Schmidt-type venture, then she could be the Kathy Bates nomination. Wait, Squibb was in that movie too?

10. Scarlett Johansson – Her – She had a nice year with this and Don Jon. She will get her due at some point, and this part could be the one that finally brings her to the ceremony.

11. Carey Mulligan – Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens are always good for their supporting players. She looks like one of the standouts, judging by the trailers.

12. Margo Martindale – August: Osage County – She is a face that tons of people will recognize from TV and smaller parts in movies. Can she outshine Roberts?

13. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine – The supporting actresses in Woody Allen movies are always in contention. She was excellent, and voters may still be looking for a way to make up for not nominating her incredible role in Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street – The second trailer painted Hill as the Christoph Waltz-type part from Django. He looks like the sidekick with all the great lines and probably will walk away with the star-studded movie. He already has one nom. It is weird to think that he could be an Oscar winner.

2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave – McQueen has proved that he pulls the best out of Fassbender. If her were to win an Oscar, he owes it to McQueen for it to be for one of his films.

3. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle – In that crazy cast of David O. Russell veterans, Cooper appears to be the supporting player who is most in his element.

4. John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis – After two straight Best Pictures and countless goodwill, Goodman is in excellent position to finally get his first ever nomination. It is fitting that it would be for a Coen Bros film.

5. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club – The stills and clips that we have seen thus far of his character are frighteningly believable. Playing a cross-dresser is hit or miss with the Academy. In a film like this, it seems like a relative sure thing.

Others in contention

6. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks – I am not completely sold on its Oscar merit, but Disney and Hanks seem like a match made in movie heaven. If the movie is a hit, then a double nom is likely in the cards for Hanks, even though he has never been mentioned in this category.

7. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips – He absolutely holds his own in that movie, and actually steals a fair amount of it. It is not unheard of for a non-actor to get nominated: Quvenzhane Wallis last year, Gabourey Sidibe in ’09…

8. Josh Brolin – Labor Day – He is going to have a big couple of months with Oldboy and Labor Day. His role seems like one that is made for a Supporting Actor nomination, but the trailer was somewhat underwhelming. Reitman is going to need to really push him for him to get mentioned here.

9. George Clooney – Gravity – Not surprisingly, he steals the scenes that he is in just because he is who he is. If the Academy really loves it, then look for him to make an appearance, since they no longer have The Monuments Men to go gaga over.

10. Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners – He gave the best performance in the film and of his career. He is definitely not supporting, but he wasn’t in Brokeback either. This would be a cool outside-the-box nom.

11. Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief – He is one of the most beloved character actors out there. If the movie is a hit, then he could threaten the top five.

12. James Gandolfini – Enough Said – The posthumous nomination always sounds good on paper, but it almost never actually happens. He had been so close to a nomination recently that this might just be the type of role that could do it, even though Nicole Holofcener’s films have never gotten a single nom in any category.

13. Will Forte – Nebraska – It is funny to think that an Oscar category could include Will Forte and Jonah Hill, but it is entirely possible. The co-lead who campaigns supporting is nominated often.

14. Daniel Bruhl – Rush – I am still holding out hope for this role and this film to get mentioned. He gave one of the most moving and surprising performances of the year.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Sandra Bullock – Gravity – The movie is essentially the Sandra Bullock show, and it is the best she has ever been. Is she really ready for a second win? It certainly appears that way…

2. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County – She is getting nominated, obviously. Can she tie Katherine Hepburn’s record with four wins? If the trailer is any indication, then that answer would be a big Y-E-S.

3. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine – She dominates Woody Allen’s film with a frustrating and brilliantly-realized character. If she starts to pick up the precursors, then she will immediately establish herself as the favorite in the category.

4. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks – The movie looks a bit goofy, but Thompson is a great actress and former winner who always seems to elevate the material.

5. Brie Larson – Short Term 12 – This would definitely be an eyebrow-raising nomination, but there is always a newcomer in the group. Her film is almost unanimously praised, so keep an eye on this one.

Others in contention

6. Judi Dench – Philomena – Well, she is Dame Judi Dench, so she is always nominated for every relevant role, but maybe they will take a break from her. I mean, she wasn’t nominated for Skyfall, despite the buzz, right? Yeah, I am not convinced either.

7. Amy Adams – American Hustle – She is said to be terrific in the movie, but I never got the indication that she actually was the lead. This would be a pleasant surprise, though.

8. Kate Winslet – Labor Day – I love the film’s potential, and her character seems like it was made for Oscar. It can’t be exactly like 2006 (Blanchett, Streep, Winslet, Dench), can it?

9. Berenice Bejo – The Past – Fresh off a nom for The Artist, she gets directed by recent Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi. She has got to be in contention.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave – Despite several great roles and movies, he has never been nominated. That may be the thing that prevents him from winning. Only one of the last six winners in this category was for a first-time nominee.

2. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club – He is ready for a nomination, and this heroic role seems like it was written for McConaughey to play and get nominated for.

3. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips – He is Tom Hanks, and while his role did not require him to stray too far from his comfort zone, it should not matter. This is the Denzel Washington – Flight guaranteed nomination with no chance of winning.

4. Joaquin Phoenix – Her – This may seem a little bizarre at this point, but watching the trailer, it is impossible to see any Phoenix in it. This may be his biggest step out that the chameleon has ever taken.

5. Bruce Dern – Nebraska – He has been buzzed since Cannes, and he hasn’t been nominated in 35 years. His nom seems assured, assuming that audiences seek out the black-and-white indie flick and fall for it the way festivals and critics have.

Others in contention

6. Robert Redford – All Is Lost – It appears to be between him and Dern for the fifth spot. I give the edge slightly to Dern, only because it is more conventional. Without any real speaking in the film, how much will the Academy like All Is Lost?

7. Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – He is the star of the box office hit. Weinstein will never give up on the movie. It seems weird to not be predicting such an Academy-friendly role…

8. Christian Bale – American Hustle – He is almost unrecognizable in the movie. He sounds like he is doing his De Niro impression. In fact it is totally a 1970s-era De Niro-type role. If the movie is a massive hit, then he will be nominated.

9. Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis – He has been in and around Oscar movies recently, but being the star of a Coen Bros movie does not always yield nominations, sadly.

10. Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – On paper, this has to be the favorite. The film might just be too conventional to really hit home with audiences.

11. Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station – He gave one of the best performances of the year, and he is a future movie star. If he gets nominated, then Weinstein deserves all the credit. This movie seems almost completely forgotten.

12. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street – The Academy loves to snub DiCaprio. Throughout both trailers, it just seems that we are watching Leo being Leo. It is all of the supporting roles that seem to own the film.

13. Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – If the movie wins over wide audiences, then this could be the Kevin Costner – Dances with Wolves overenthusiastic nomination.

14. Hugh Jackman – Prisoners – The movie is an actor showcase, and this is the best work he has ever done. If they film is in for a few acting noms, which is entirely possible, then look for him to gobble up a second consecutive Best Actor nom.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave – His film is the one to beat at this point, and with the exception of the fallout of the strange and pathetic Ben Affleck snub last year, the Academy does not like to split Picture and Director.

2. David O. Russell – American Hustle – He is going to win one at some point. His last two films have been hugely popular Oscar movies. He is just up against a juggernaut.

3. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street – Four of his last five films have been nominated for Best Picture and Director. The only one that wasn’t was pushed back and blew up the box office. He cannot miss right now. We will see how much he had to compromise in his editing process, though.

4. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens are always nominated here. Their film could win the whole thing if it lives up to the promise.

5. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity – His nomination should be guaranteed, given that it is the best pure directorial achievement since United 93. The Academy is just hesitant when it comes to science-fiction, but this is more like science-reality. It could/should demolish that voter reluctance and preconceived notions.

Others in contention

6. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips – His film is one of the more interesting directorial achievements of the year, blending several different styles into one big action-drama picture. He could easily garner his second career nomination.

7. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine – He seems to get nominated here even more than in Best Picture. This film does not have any real Woody Allen originality in terms of directing, but it is an impressive detour from his usual style.

8. John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks – If the film is good enough and deep enough, then the past nominee for producing could get his first nom for directing.

9. Lee Daniels – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Never count out the impact of Harvey Weinstein. He was singled out for Precious back in ’09, so he could still be fresh on the memory of the Academy, since supposedly everyone has already forgotten about the horrible 2012 movie The Paperboy.

10. Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – I still think that this movie could be the next Forrest Gump, so to think that Stiller could be nominated here is not out of the question. He is an even better director than an actor.

11. John Wells – August: Osage County – The movie may be too simple for the director to be in contention, but he must have some talent, given that his only two films (The Company Men was the other) were star-studded and widely-hyped.

12. J.C. Chandor – All Is Lost – He seems to be in a tough spot with Cuaron’s film taking the novelty of the isolation movie, but he is a past nominee for writing, so he could have the hot hand. The movie appears to have astonishing directing.

13. Ron Howard – Rush – Howard is always in contention, and his film seems to bring the Oscar goods. Is auto racing just not their thing, though? Where is the buzz?

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) – It has been reviewed as being the next Schindler’s List, which is about as high of praise that can be given to a historical movie. Unless its wide release proves otherwise, this will likely be the frontrunner for the long haul.

2. American Hustle (David O. Russell) – Following Argo may be the worst thing for the movie, since that is the style and era of the film. In any other year, it would be the odds-on favorite for sure.

3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen) – I love its chances at getting nominated, but a win will only happen if it wins over the box office. We shall see in December…

4. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) – Under no circumstances can this movie win Best Picture, but under no circumstances will this miss out on a nomination. Even though it appears to be more Casino than anything else, with the current format, Casino would have been nominated too.

5. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass) – The Tom Hanks-starring film leaves the audience with a gratifying and rewarding experience. It seems like a no-brainer Best Picture nominee.

6. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Lee Daniels) – The box office success has this all but locked into a nomination.

7. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock) – It seems clear that the film will win over wide audiences, but will Academy voters be moved enough to give it the necessary first place votes?

8. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) – Woody Allen’s films are probably always in the second five for Best Picture. If enough voters remember the film for something other than Blanchett, then this should coast to a nomination.

9. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) – I am still not completely sold on this, but it deserves it. Even District 9, as violent and action-packed as it was, got nominated for Best Picture. Gravity has the box office and critical acclaim. I think it sneaks out a nom.

10. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller) – There really is not too much more to say about this. No one has seen it. It is completely in limbo until its Christmas release.

Others in contention

11. August: Osage County (John Wells) – It would be difficult to snub a movie if there are as many acting noms as it could end up with. It is going to need to be a hit.

12. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee) – The movie seems like a safe Oscar movie, but what exactly has Jean-Marc Vallee done to convince us he is capable of handling that material? His only other film with real aspirations (The Young Victoria) sort of flopped.

13. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater) – It is the best film that will come out this year, but it is hard to imagine that many voters actually proclaiming that fact.

14. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler) – If there is something from the first half of the year that has a chance at this category, then it is this timely, tragic, and brilliant little true story.

15. Rush (Ron Howard) – It was hailed as the next Rocky and had box office and reviews to prove it. Maybe it could still surprise, but I almost feel like it needs to take the NBR or get a Golden Globe nom to get back in the race.

So, there you have it. Thoughts? Predictions? Overlooked films/performances? What are your favorites of the year so far? Let me know!