Year in Review: Terry's Top 10 Films of 2013

For yet another year, it takes me halfway through the following year to publish my top 10 list of the year before.  I blame my busy schedule.  I could put out my list a little earlier, but I don't feel right about settling on a top 10 list without at least seeing all the Best Picture nominees.  Sometimes I get grief for fixating a little too much on the Best Picture nominees, especially last year when eight of the nine nominees found their way into my top ten.  (That is not the case this year.)  There are still many top films from 2013 I haven't seen (viewed only 70% of Todd's Top 10, 40% of Zach's Top 10), but if I wait to see them all you will never see my list.

Last year was a fairly strong year in film with many great films coming from many different genres.  In my top 10 alone (which only contains five Best Picture nominees this year, thank you very much), there are heart-warming inspirational stories, fun family films, dark psychological thrillers, intense sci-fi visual effects masterpieces, and futuristic ground-breaking original stories.  However, what ruled this year for me was the "based on a true story" genre.  Hollywood seemed to really take the perspective of Jack's future father-in-law to heart in that there are so many great non-fiction stories out there, why waste your time with fiction.  Half of the films on my top ten list (and one honorable mention) are based on true stories.  Whether it be a story focused on a high-profile public icon or an average guy faced with an impossible situation, Hollywood truly found some powerful stories and the real life people that made them possible.

Films seen: 46
"Thumbs Up" Percentage: 67%
Best Actor: Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Actress: Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Supporting Actress: June Squibb - Nebraska
Breakout Performances: Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station, Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Most Overrated: American Hustle
Most Underrated: Side Effects
Biggest Surprise: The World's End
Biggest Disappointment: The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Bottom Five: Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters, About 111 Girls, The Wolverine, Oz the Great and Powerful, Now You See Me

Top 10 List

Honorable Mention: Rush, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska

10.  Before Midnight (dir. by Richard Linklater)

I am a recent fan of this series, but I can't help but be fascinated by the story of Jesse and Celine, portrayed by Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy.  We get a window into their relationship together every 9 years with this being the third installment.  I will say it was the weakest of the three "Before" films so far as it, for the first time, I felt produced some less than genuine, authentic moments.  However, this is being very picky as we should be allowed to be when it comes to such a beautiful and original franchise as this.  Once again the film is driven by wonderfully rich dialogue that truly allows us to see into these characters souls and, in this one especially, see how they have changed since they first met 18 years ago.  I hope we get the fourth installment in 2022.

9.  Her (dir. by Spike Jonze)

Every now and then a film comes along that is so original and groundbreaking in its premise that it's just fun to experience it.  Ever rarer are the times when these groundbreaking stories are so well executed that they become one of the best films of that year.  It's the difference between Synecdoche, New York and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.  Her belongs in that second category.  Looking ahead to, I'm sure, the not-too-distant future, it tells the story of a man falling in love with his computer that is designed to think and have a full range of emotions.  Joaquin Phoenix gives a brilliant performance as he appears to be talking to himself the majority of the time, but Scarlett Johansson makes the film work as she brings Samantha to life in a way that you forget you are watching a man interact with a computer.  It simply turns into one of the most unique love stories you will ever see.

8.  Philomena (dir. by Stephen Frears)

In the first of the true stories to come across my list, we have the tale of a sweet, endearing old Irish lady and a smug, sarcastic, self-righteous British reporter (basically, the perfect stereotype of a British reporter).  Martin Sixsmith (News at 10) has decided to write a human interest story about Philomena Lee who is looking for her son that was taken from her as a toddler.  Going into this movie, I thought I had a grasp on what it was going to be.  It really was so much more than I thought.  It really surprised me in its depth and emotion.  Judi Dench once again shows why she is one of the most decorated actresses of the last 20 years, but the real revelation was Steve Coogan.  Up until now, when I thought of Steve Coogan, I thought of things like Tropic Thunder and singing "Rock Me, Sexy Jesus" in Hamlet 2.  In this film, he reinvents himself and shows what he is truly capable of, both in his acting and screenwriting.  It is one of those films you never get tired of seeing.

7.  Fruitvale Station (dir. by Ryan Coogler)

With the second true story of the top ten comes one of the independent darlings of the year.  This film tells of the last 24 hours in the life of Oscar Grant, a young Oakland man wrongfully gunned down by law enforcement officers.  Of all the characters created in 2013, Oscar might be the most well-rounded and complete of them all.  Michael B. Jordan brilliantly brings to life the spirit of Oscar, a young troubled ma trying to do what is right but often falling short.  It is a tragic story that breaks your heart knowing the eventual outcome and seeing the life that wasn't able to play its course.  Soon after it starts, you forget you are watching a drama with actors and start to think of it as a documentary with archival footage, which is the best a film like this can hope for.

6.  Saving Mr. Banks (dir. by John Lee Hancock)

In what became possibly the best feel-good movie of the year, we have the third true story of the top ten.  This tells the story of Walt Disney's attempts to woo author P.L. Travers to let him make her beloved Mary Poppins into a movie.  As we watch the struggle and debate progress, we also see why Travers holds this story so tightly as we learn about her childhood and the story of her father.  Emma Thompson is spot-on perfect as the tight-lipped, highly skeptical Travers, and Tom Hanks brings Walt Disney back to life in a way few others could.  This is one of those films that makes you laugh, makes you cry, and finds you finishing the movie with a smile on your face and the warm and fuzzies in your heart.  It's another film that I can't get enough of.

5.  Frozen (dir. by Chris Buck & Jennifer Lee)

This is not a true story (however it would be cool if Olaf were real).  Following the film about Walt Disney, we have a Disney animated film.  More times than not recently, an animated film has been making it into my top ten.  Usually it is the Pixar installment of the year, but Monsters University didn't quite reach the heights of the original.  Instead we have a return to old-school Disney with this movie musical that is the best Disney has put out since the days of Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King.  Frozen is different though.  It has the feel of a classic Disney film with the princesses and the beautiful original music, but as the movie goes on you realize it is less about the princesses finding their Prince Charming and more about them finding each other.  It has all the magic that you expect out of one of Disney's best efforts and songs that you can't help but hum for days (or months) after.  It is a film that is impossible to not like and easy to love.

4.  Side Effects (dir. by Stephen Soderbergh)

With one of the biggest surprises of the year comes this very underrated film.  I'm always a sucker for a good psychological thriller; one that loops a story around to the point that you are constantly questioning what is real and what isn't until the final twist at the end that makes sense (or doesn't) of the last two hours.  The best in this category 2013 had to offer was Side Effects, the story of a young woman who is dealing with some life-altering side effects to her psychiatric medication.  As if The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo didn't prove enough just how talented and diverse of an actor Rooney Mara is, she proves it once again with this brilliant performance.  It's one of those films that forces you to say at the end, "Stop!  Rewind that!" because you want to experience the whole film again knowing how it all ends up just so you can make sense of it all.  Also, when a film is made with a good Jude Law performance, well that is an accomplishment in itself.

3.  Captain Phillips (dir. by Paul Greengrass)

An average ordinary day, all of a sudden, becomes a life-threatening ordeal.  This is the story of Captain Phillips, as Tom Hanks portrays the titular character who has his freighter ship boarded by Somali pirates.  This true story leaves you on the edge of your seat from start to finish as Paul Greengrass once again shows that he is the master of this type of film.  Much like he did in United 93, Greengrass finds unrecognizable young actors to portray his villains.  This time around, the leader of the group is played by Barkhad Abdi, who gives a truly landmark performance in his first acting role.  Much like how I described Fruitvale Station, this film forces you to forget you are watching a dramatization.  It becomes real.  Tom Hanks gives one of his best performances as he subtly explores the full range of emotions this experience takes his character through.  Between Hanks, Abdi, and the dramatic story portrayed, it is a film you won't soon forget.

2.  Gravity (dir. by Alfonso Cuaron)

Not knowing what I was getting myself into, I went to the theatre one day to experience a double feature of Captain Phillips and Gravity.  I was so emotionally exhausted the rest of the day that I couldn't useless for anything else.  I love movies about space (Apollo 13 is my favorite movie of all time) which made this film even more anticipated than it already should have been.  In what became the most intense 91 minutes of the year, I sat on the edge of my seat with my jaw dropped as I watched George Clooney and Sandra Bullock find to stay alive after an unforeseen catastrophe strikes their spaceship.  The story is great, the performances are top notch, but the real story here is the amazing achievement of Cuaron's directing.  The visuals are beautiful and haunting at the same time.  It is a movie worth watching just to look at, but the story  and struggle of the main characters make it truly special.  Oh yeah, and it's in space!  I thought for sure this would be my top movie of the year.

1.  12 Years a Slave (dir. by Steve McQueen)

For the third year in a row, my top film of the year was the winner of the Best Picture Oscar.  It's good to know the Academy has been getting it right.  This is the true story of Solomon Northup, a 19th century Black man that is kidnapped from his home in the north and enslaved for 12 years.  It's a star-studded affair along the lines of Saving Private Ryan where every supporting character is played by a recognizable face.  Like I said, it was going to take something special for Gravity to not be my top movie of 2013, and this was that good.  The moving and inspiring story portrayed is one of the most powerful stories put to film in recent years.  Every performance is spot on, from Chiwetel Ejiofor's Solomon to slavemasters Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Fassbender to fellow slave Lupita Nyong'o, and help bring to life the incredible vision of director Steve McQueen.  This is a movie that will be remembered for years to come as a film that brought an era to life much like Schindler's List brought the Holocaust to life.  This movie will go down as a landmark achievement as one of the greatest and most important movies of our generation.

So there's my top 10 list.  Hopefully, my top 10 list of 2014 can come out before we are too far into 2015...

Year in Review: Zach's Top Ten Films of 2013

            Hollywood boasted that 2013 was its best year for movies ever, but because this claim is almost entirely predicated on higher ticket prices rather than actual attendance figures (as well as the timely overlooking of numerous high-profile box office flops), the issue isn’t really about how much money was made, but rather, why people continue to go to the movies.  The answer depends entirely on the movie.  If you ask why people went to see Gravity (#7 highest grossing movie of 2013), the answer is: “Because audiences were awestruck by its groundbreaking 3D special effects.”  If you ask why people saw Iron Man 3 (#2 highest grossing movie) and Despicable Me 2 (#3), the answer is: “Because audiences loved the first one.”  If you ask why people saw Frozen and Oz: The Great and Powerful (#4 and #10, respectively), the answer is: “They are wholesome movies for the family.”  And if you ask people why they saw The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, the answer is: “Jennifer Lawrence.”

            So special effects, franchises, family appeal, and star power lay at the heart of most of 2013’s most successful films.  But if that was the case, why did The Lone Ranger fail so spectacularly?  By my count, it meets for three of those four aforementioned qualifiers (and whether Johnny Depp’s portrayal of Tonto is a significant departure from the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise is debatable).  Yes, it got bad reviews . . . but so did Man of Steel (#5 of 2013) and Oz: The Great and Powerful (#10). 

            My theory?  People didn’t see The Lone Ranger (myself included) because there was always a better option.  Why spend two hours and 29 minutes of your life watching a glorified mashup of Pirates of the Caribbean and Wild Wild West?  In that same amount of time, you could watch the Breaking Bad finale, an episode of Girls, every scene of Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, most of Frozen, Bound 3, and the magnificent uninterrupted opening shot from Gravity.  I’m not necessarily suggesting that movies need to be shorter, but with the proliferation of personal electronic devices and social media, audiences simply don’t have the patience to sit through boring, perfunctory movies like The Lone Ranger anymore.  Even in movie theaters, where social decorum once existed and has now grossly eroded, the cell phone has now frequently become the superior entertainment option.  Social media has not only replaced human interaction, but even the process of escaping to the cinema to avoid human interaction (this idea may reappear somewhere on my list).

            All of this is really a roundabout way of saying there were a lot of good movies in 2013, and instead of lambasting the industry for continuing to put out crap and expecting audiences to shell out extra money for tickets and 3D gimmicks, we should laud filmmakers for being able to put out a handful of movies that not only entertain us, but manage to keep us off our cell phones.  We are an ADHD generation, and in order to grab the attention of audiences, movies are forced to revert to two options: (A) Enhanced explosions and mindless special effects, or (B) Screenplays, actors and filmmakers that continually strive for originality, fearlessness and intelligence.  My choice of the top ten films of 2013 -- the first year of many without the sage guidance of Roger the Great -- reflects films which opted for the latter.

Films seen: 51

“Thumbs-up” percentage: 64.7%

Lead Actor Performance: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Lead Actress Performance: Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Supporting Actor Performance: Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines

Supporting Actress Performance: June Squibb, Nebraska

Underrated Films: To the Wonder, Pain & Gain, Jack the Giant Slayer, Don Jon

Overrated Films: The Wolf of Wall Street, The Way Way Back, The Spectacular Now, 42

Worst Movies of 2013: Broken City, Movie 43, Elysium

Worst Final 30 Minutes: The Call, Prisoners, Now You See Me

                                                                                                                            

Honorable Mention: Stories We Tell, The Act of Killing, Fruitvale Station, 56 Up, Jack the Giant Slayer

10. The Hunt (Dir: Thomas Vinterberg)

This was a fascinating, unpredictable take on a taboo subject matter that would never be tackled in mainstream American cinema: The (false) accusation of child molestation.  Mads Mikelsen (AKA Le Chiffre from Casino Royale) plays a recently divorced teacher who takes a temporary job at a preschool before allegations are made which result in his dismissal and banishment from the community.  What is interesting about the movie isn’t really the story (which thankfully never moves into hysterical or exploitative territory), but the relationships between the male characters and the scathing portrayal of how close-knit communities (even in “progressive” Scandinavia) respond to rumors, gossip and groupthink.  We are left wondering how the numerous real-life headlines of rape and abuse that ultimately prove unfounded ever originate in the first place (that is, outside of Tallahassee, Florida).

9. Rush (Dir: Ron Howard)

The best sports movie of the last several years.  Like Amadeus, the movie profiles two real-life rivals -- James Hunt (Chris Hemworth) and Niki Lauda (Daniel Bruhl) -- who grow to dislike each other so much that it grows to an odd sort of mutual admiration.  It is also a movie of universal truths -- that the guy just above you who you despise keeps you more motivated than almost anything else -- and although Rush profiles the world of Formula One racing in the 1970s, you do no have to be a racing fan to appreciate the movie.  I do not follow racing and I found the events of the film gripping, unpredictable, and fairly unbelievable.  Howard also displays something we haven't really seen from him since Apollo 13: A key understanding of how special effects in movies should work -- not simply to display, but to give impressions, feelings, and manifestations of the innermost anxieties of characters.  And like all great movies, it only gets better as it goes along.

8. To the Wonder (Dir: Terrence Malick)

“Slow-moving,” “inaccessible,” “obtuse,” and “self-indulgent” were some of the most popular words used to describe Malick’s latest foray into the ephemeral nature of human subconsciousness. Of course, all these words could also apply to The Tree of Life and The Thin Red Line, but for some reason, critics found particular disdain in To the Wonder primarily because (A) its main actors were all incalculably attractive, and (B) there was little clear connection between the Olga Kurylenko/Ben Affleck story thread, and Javier Bardem’s tortured Catholic priest.  All true.  But what got overlooked was how affecting the story was, the truths it revealed about the idealism and volatility of romantic relationships, and how Malick is actually a remarkably clear storyteller.  Like the great silent filmmakers of the 1920s, he doesn’t rely on exposition to give us comprehensive portraits of his main characters.  Instead, we are left with fragments, which are frustrating but also infinitely more poetic and even perhaps closer to us in their ambiguity.

7. All is Lost (Dir: J.C. Chandor) 


All right, so it’s basically a remake of Cast Away, but who cares?  There are worse movies to emulate than Cast Away.  And there’s no desert island and there’s no Wilson (although Robert Redford relies heavily on his handy sextant for geographical and mental direction).  And it’s a lot more nihilistic.  But Redford is phenomenal, taking what would appear to be a gimmick (no dialogue and no other characters) into a riveting, exciting movie about gradually accepting near-certain death (hence, the title).  The movie doesn’t have a message and it doesn’t preach; it simply observes, rendering viewers frustratingly powerless but increasingly sympathetic to Redford’s nameless everyman.  As I kept watching it, I was wondering how the Chandor would end the story without complete and total helplessness, and improbably, he manages to do it flawlessly.

6. Blue is the Warmest Color (Dir: Abdellatif Kechiche)

This was the toughest movie of the year.  How do you react to it?  Is it sexist?  Is it a modern-day example of what Laura Mulvey famously identified as “the male gaze?”  I found the sex scenes absolutely guilty of the criticism they received: They are excessive, distracting, tedious and (because there’s no other term for it) pornographic.  See this movie and tell me those scenes are not pornographic.  But unlike right-wing prudes, I also don’t believe pornography is a universal evil, and the sex scenes are necessary in order to show – in a way no other previous movie has ever shown – how integral sex is for young people who have only encountered it through rumors, misinformation and what society tells us are “appropriate” sexual orientations (it’s also a much-needed relief from mainstream films content to show only nonthreatening, sexless homosexual relationships). The sexual bond created by the two protagonists (Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux) provides the backbone for their entire relationship, which spans over the course of several years.  There are good times, there are bad times, there’s jealousy, sadness, sexual awakening, and deep self-questioning.  It’s probably 25 minutes too long.  But because the movie is French, it refreshingly allows its characters to think and have intelligent conversations.  An American movie would have reduced Blue’s narrative structure to a 90-minute rom-com.  But Kechiche and his remarkable leading actresses have eschewed formula and instead offer us a riveting, engrossing, and frequently sad look at human longing.

5.  Lore (Dir: Cate Shortland)

Like Blue is the Warmest Color, Lore profiles a young female protagonist whose sexual awakening crucially coincides with a rise of political consciousness (and yes, needless to say, it’s European).  But this film takes place in the waning days of World War II, when Lore, the daughter of defeated Nazi cadres, must escape Allied capture in order to transport her younger siblings to their grandmother’s house.  Along the way, Lore (played by Saskia Rosendahl in a remarkable debut performance) encounters displaced war victims who gradually make her question her mindless adherence to Third Reich ideology.  The core question of the movie is at what point are children responsible for their own thoughts and actions (and are no longer the unfortunate byproducts of the way their parents raised them).  In that sense, Lore isn’t really about the Holocaust or bad parenting or even about Nazi ideology, but about the process of becoming an adult.  This makes the story universal, and even though Lore is not always likable, she is a reminder that as adults, we are forced to live with the misguided actions of our youth.

4. Nebraska (Dir: Alexander Payne)

It’s black-and-white, has no A-list actors, features an 80-year-old protagonist, and has no sex or explosions.  How did this film get made again?  Like Sideways, this is a movie that captures perfectly the awkwardness and anxieties of human interaction and somehow manages to be as heartfelt as it is cynical.  It also features the best performance of Bruce Dern’s career as a man who may not be completely mentally coherent (although he may be, we never really know).  There are also great supporting performances by Will Forte, June Squibb, and Stacey Keach, and the final moments of the movie are just about perfect, reminding us that triumphant endings don’t always have to involve grand gestures, but instead, everyday acts of selflessness.  It’s the type of movie that intelligent audiences give standing ovations to.

3. Gravity (Dir: Alfonso Cuaron)

Like Avatar, the first question we have to ask is whether it’s a great motion picture or a great motion picture experience.  And unlike Avatar, it actually manages to hold up to both questions (I saw it both in Imax 3D and on a home theater system).  What else can be said about it that hasn’t already been said?  It’s thrilling to watch, features great performances by Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, and quietly offers a very intelligent screenplay.  And yes, the special effects are amazing, transporting us seamlessly into outer space without making us skeptical of CGI for a single moment.  The camera movement too doesn’t draw too much attention to itself, as Cuaron has been guilty of in the past, and like the great movie epics of the 1950s and 60s, it transports us to a place we never thought we could see so clearly.

2. 12 Years a Slave (Dir: Steve McQueen)

McQueen’s Hunger was #1 on my 2009 list, while Shame was probably the most disappointing film I saw in 2011.  12 Years a Slave is a return to the incredible potential he has as a director, beautifully balancing artistic ingenuity with sophisticated, compelling storytelling.  In an era in which Django Unchained is the most widely-seen cinematic representation of slavery, this film is a much-needed reminder of the true brutality and horror of life in the Antebellum South (and no, Chiwetel Ejiofor doesn’t get to blow up Michael Fassbender’s house).  Many critics have spoken of the film’s many violent scenes and how difficult they are to watch, but there are also a great deal of more subtly devastating scenes (such as an exchange between Ejiofor and Fassbender involving an unsent letter and every scene with Adepero Oduye in it).  There was no better performance in a 2013 film than Ejiofor here.  He doesn’t have a lot of flashy scenes, but instead, more realistically portrays a quiet, contemplative man who is very nearly depleted to his core during his 12 years of torture and banishment.  The final moments have an emotional power that is rare, and is the only 2013 movie that is virtually guaranteed to be remembered for generations to come.

And the three-way tie for best movie of 2013:

1. The first 53 minutes of The Place Beyond the Pines.

When I saw this movie back in April, I knew I was watching something special, and thought it would unquestionably merit a very high spot on my list.  Unfortunately, the last two-thirds of the movie really don’t hold up to the first third, but that should not prevent you from still seeing it (after all, it was Todd’s #5 movie of 2013).  Ryan Gosling’s performance in the first 53 minutes is absolutely stunning, and the movie offers an experience in a special way which very few other movies can claim: It throttles you.  You have no clue where it is going, and are just thankful to be on board in the backseat.  There are a few images which leave an unforgettable impact (here and here).  It is cinema at its most transcendent.  I know it sounds sort of gimmicky to name your best movie of the year the first 53 minutes of a movie, but you tell me what you think after watching it.

1. The final episode of Breaking Bad.

So OK, it’s not a movie, but taken as a whole, I’d argue that Breaking Bad is better than any movie that has come out the last five years.  The final eight episodes are gripping and feature tremendous performances and marvelous dialogue.  Without giving too much away, there is a scene in a garage that had my heart racing like it did during United 93; there is a gun death in the desert that was equally tragic and inevitable and horrific to watch; and the final episode, which gave resolution and catharsis without being overly preachy or indulgent, contained moments which were painful and true.  The performances were all amazing, but Bryan Cranston was particularly astonishing in the way he balanced being both sympathetic and horrific.  And the choice of the final song to close out the series was perfect, probably leaving David Chase wondering why he couldn’t have done the same.

1. The real best movie of 2013: Disconnect (Dir: Henry-Alex Rubin)

If I haven’t made it clear enough already, I thought 2013 was a very strong year for movies, so putting Disconnect as my real #1 should not be taken lightly – it wasn’t the result of being the most notable film in the midst of a mediocre year (as has possibly been the case in the recent past).  I did not honestly expect much going into it, but I was blown away by how tight, intelligent, and unpredictable it really was.  In weaving a Crash-like narrative involving three intersecting storylines, the movie constantly moves from one interesting character to the other, probing deep questions about the use of social media and technology in modern American life.  Each story uses problems we often hear about on the news as starting points (cyberbullying, online sex trafficking, and identity theft) but brilliantly moves past the veneer of personal electronic devices to examine the human effects of seemingly faceless, humanless actions.  Rubin doesn’t really preach against the bad effects of alienation from face-to-face interaction (in spite of the film’s tagline, “Look Up”) – that would be too easy.  Instead, he accepts the notion that technology can also bring people closer, and in doing so, social media becomes the vehicle for understanding the deeper personal motivations and anxieties of each of the characters.  While watching the movie, you keep waiting for the scene which it will turn stupid or phony or unrealistic – and it simply never happens; even at the end, which could have gone for the conventional “happy” angle, but instead offers something much more realistic and unresolved.  There’s an energy and remarkable clarity that makes Disconnect remind us that movies are still capable of deeply moving us. 

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Upset that Spring Breakers somehow did not on my list? Let me know below!

Year in Review: Top 10 Films of 2013

2013 was a year that had very few (if any) masterpieces, but there were many films that I would consider great. I have no issues with the films nominated by the Academy, but they missed out on some of the truly remarkable independent movies that are represented in my top films. Check out my breakdown of the year below, followed by my current top 10 of 2013:

Films seen: 85

Thumbs up percentage: 54.12%

Actor of the year: Matthew McConaughey, 2^nd consecutive year (Dallas Buyer’s Club, Mud, The Wolf of Wall Street)

Actress of the year: Rooney Mara (Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, Her, Side Effects)

Best Actor: Michael Jordan – Fruitvale Station, Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street, Joaquin Phoenix – Her, Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight, Robert Redford – All Is Lost

Best Actress: Elle Fanning – Ginger & Rosa, Julie Delpy – Before Midnight, Brie Larson – Short Term 12, Sandra Bullock – Gravity, Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha

Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck – Out of the Furnace, James Franco – Spring Breakers, Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street, Michael Cera – Magic Magic, Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Best Supporting Actress: Annika Wedderkopp – The Hunt, Scarlett Johansson – Her, Rachel Boston – It’s a Disaster, Kristin Scott Thomas – Only God Forgives, Mary Elizabeth Winstead – The Spectacular Now

Best Original Screenplay: Her, Nebraska, The Place Beyond the Pines, Inside Llewyn Davis, Drinking Buddies

Best Adapted Screenplay: Before Midnight, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Spectacular Now, Short Term 12, 12 Years a Slave
Most underrated film: The Place Beyond the Pines

Most overrated film: Saving Mr. Banks

Biggest surprise: Side Effects

Biggest disappointment: Out of the Furnace

Best ensemble casts: Her, Drinking Buddies, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Place Beyond the Pines, Prisoners

Bottom five of the year (from bad to worst): 42, Quartet, Now You See Me, Man of Steel, A Good Day to Die Hard

Most anticipated unseen films: Blue Is the Warmest Color, Dallas Buyers Club, The Great Beauty, In a World…, Philomena, Snowpiercer, The Wind Rises

Others receiving votes: The Act of Killing, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, All Is Lost, The Hunt, It’s a Disaster

10. Short Term 12 (directed by Destin Cretton)

 

One of the great under-the-radar movies of the year was Destin Cretton’s expansion of his terrific short film. Short Term 12 follows Grace (breakout star Brie Larson), a worker at a foster care facility that watches and guides troubled underprivileged kids. There is a deep heartache and pain in the story, especially as more of Grace’s past gets revealed and shows why she is such a committed and caring worker. It features some of the truly elite scenes of the year, chief among them the “So You Know What It’s Like” original song by young actor Keith Stanfield, which clearly was the best song of 2013. Short Term 12 is not a movie that will sit well with a lot of audiences since it is so understated and sad, but there is a sense of warmth that we feel following the movie that makes it very rewarding, and in a way, beautiful.

9. The Spectacular Now (directed by James Ponsoldt)

This is a very personal inclusion on this list. I love movies that ooze nostalgia, and this is the best one its kind in several years. James Ponsoldt, who also directed last year’s indie gem Smashed, has become a go-to director for independent comedy-dramas. All of his movies thus far have been in some way about alcoholics, but none of them have been as perceptive and meaningful as this one. It is about Sutter (the excellent Miles Teller) and Aimee (Shailene Woodley). They form the most endearing movie couple of the year. Ponsoldt has a knack for creating characters with flaws that we cannot help but care for. Sutter is the hard-partying high schooler, and Aimee is the outcast. They begin an unlikely friendship and form a bond that no one expected, least of all the two of them. In the end of this little movie, we feel undeniably bittersweet, satisfied, and melancholic. It puts sentimentality away and leaves the audience to view this rich and realistic story in all its nostalgia and ordinary beauty. Ponsoldt could be the next Alexander Payne.

8. Inside Llewyn Davis (directed by Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)

This is the best American music film since 2007’s indie masterwork Once. The Coen brothers have outdone themselves with this brilliantly detailed and darkly hilarious little film. At no point does the movie try to be popular. It features some of the most unlikable characters the Coens have created, yet, we care all too much. Llewyn Davis (Oscar Isaac) is a struggling folk singer in the 1961 New York, and he lives for his music. He lives his life in the way described in his lyrics. There is no glamour in this story, no happy ending. It is all realism. We drop in on Llewyn’s life and watch him navigate the folk scene for a period of time, and we could not be more grateful after the movie is over. It is a remarkable movie and one that only gets better as time goes by. You will be humming the extraordinary soundtrack for the foreseeable future. I was aching to see it again in the days following.

7. Gravity (directed by Alfonso Cuaron)

There was no greater movie miracle in 2013 than Gravity. There were basically just two cast members, and one of them is gone for the majority of the film. We are essentially watching Ryan Stone (Sandra Bullock) floating through space and trying to find any way to survive without any real working communication. It sounds like a short film’s premise, but it is edited in a way that creates the most intense movie-going experience of the year. It is also the best use of 3D maybe ever (if not, then #2 behind Avatar). The creativity and imagination that this movie took, as well as the attention to detail makes a movie that would otherwise seem ridiculous feel absolutely involving and realistic. It is one of the truly magical films of 2013.

6. 12 Years a Slave (directed by Steve McQueen)

This is perhaps the only instant classic 2013 film. While watching the long, inspiring struggle of the human spirit in Solomon Northup (Chiwetel Ejiofor), a free man who was drugged and enslaved for 12 years, the audience just feels like they are watching an already polished film classic. Each and every scene is vital to the tone of the story. It is difficult to watch, to be sure. However, there is no more rewarding experience that one can have from a 2013 film. 12 Years a Slave is an important piece of cinema and one that will undoubtedly be looked back on as a crowning achievement of this era.

5. The Place Beyond the Pines (directed by Derek Cianfrance)

This was the biggest surprise masterpiece of 2013. The movie is separated into three segments, and there is a passing of the torch between them. The segments are of course intertwined, but unlike several other movies with this layout, the bridges are not predictable. Each segment sports an astonishing leading performance (Ryan Gosling, Bradley Cooper, Dane DeHaan) and by a seemingly different genre (crime drama via Drive, cop drama via Copland, indie drama via In the Bedroom). The further along the story rolls, the more we get into it and become aware of the fate of the characters. When the end credits start, we realize that 140 minutes have gone by and we still want more.

4. Nebraska (directed by Alexander Payne)

I have a fondness for Payne movies that cannot be overstated. His movies are so realistic and different. I felt like after Sideways that I would never be able to truly be blown away by one of his films, but I was wrong. This movie is one of the purest and painfully funny movies I have seen in years. Payne did not write this movie, but it is one of his movies at its core. It is his finest directed job as well. The black-and-white format takes away all outside factors and just lets the characters be. We are essentially just following Woody Grant (Bruce Dern) and his son David (Will Forte) on an ill-conceived cross-country trek. Road trip movies are common; this one is not. It is written as a sad, depressing drama, yet its flawlessness in developing relatable quirks in the characters is what causes the laughs and makes the movie tick. It may not have the ambition of other films on this list, but it is just about perfect.

3. The Wolf of Wall Street (directed by Martin Scorsese)

Zach and I clearly disagree on this one, but this movie really is a daring and hilarious piece of work. The story is about Jordan Belfort (Leonardo DiCaprio), the scamming leader of Stratton Oakmont, a firm who sells worthless stocks to unwitting consumers, scheming out millions every week. On paper, yes this movie is unappealing. Who wants a true story comedy (or sorts) about criminals who never really get caught or get what is coming to them? Well, that is exactly what Scorsese thought. He focuses in on Belfort, and lets him tell the story. It is frustrating, and it is only hilarious because we want it to. It doesn’t play for laughs, but the characters and situations are so outrageous that we can’t help but laugh at their expense. It is loaded with drugs, women, and greed. In format and subject, it is nearly identical to Goodfellas. Under normal circumstances, that would bother me. This is not a normal case. It is the most thrilling and unrelenting 3 hour movie I have ever seen.

2. Her (directed by Spike Jonze)

Spike Jonze has made himself an A-list director in just four films. He has a style and subtlety that no one else has. This movie has less Being John Malkovich and Adaptation in its visuals, but there is every bit as much quirkiness and sadness in their stories. Like his most recent masterwork Where the Wild Things Are, this is a passion piece. From the opening shots of the film, we are completely glued to a movie about a man (Joaquin Phoenix) falling in love with his computer operating system (Scarlett Johansson). It sounds strange until you actually see it happen. It could be the next The Truman Show in terms of creating an atmosphere and visionary look at where we are heading as a society. In its comedy, it is equal parts The 40 Year Old Virgin, Punch-Drunk Love, and Eternal Sunshine. There is also a fair amount of Lost in Translation in how the characters and story are treated. It is nothing like any of those, however. It is a complete original, and it just feels like a landmark piece of cinema.

1. Before Midnight (directed by Richard Linklater)

Unless something drastic happens in the next couple months of 2013 video releases, then this will remain my #1 of the year. Like the previous two installments in this series (1995’s Before Sunrise, 2004’s Before Sunset), this film is strictly dialogue. Even more so than its predecessors, Midnight could not exist without the previous ones. Every word of it is drawing from the bank of passion and commitment that we feel for Jesse (Ethan Hawke) and Celine (Julie Delpy), the two disarming main characters of this decades-long romantic saga. This film is not as much about broken hearts and charming romances; this one is relaxed. At least it feels that way right up until our two protagonists are alone. The entire third act is in a hotel room, and it contains the most brilliant, devastating, heated conversation I have ever seen in a movie in recent memory. It has all the makings of a title bout without a single punch thrown. The audience is left on edge and inevitably begging for more after it is over. Please, Mr. Hawke, Mr. Linklater, and Ms. Delpy…give us more in 2022. I am already making arrangements for seeing it on opening night.

Thoughts? Your top 10? Anyone else adore Jesse and Celine like I do? Comment below…

2014 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

We are finally closing in on Oscar nomination morning (Thursday, January 16^th) and the live awards shows. It is clear that the frontrunner this season is Steve McQueen’s devastating 12 Years a Slave, which has been heralded as the next Schindler’s List, but at this point, I am getting the feeling that it could also be treated as more of a Lincoln-type movie by the major awards. What that means is that the race is still wide open. There are a bunch of dark-horses, and a handful of the preordained contenders are just getting their theatrical run. The voting has begun, so there is little that can happen in the coming weeks to change the fate of the films in contention. Check out my final predictions below and my ARTS AND TECHS PREDICTIONS as well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley – It is the frontrunner in most categories, and barring some unforeseen backlash, Ridley’s superb screenplay will be our winner.

 

2. The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter – Winter has already thrilled audiences with Boardwalk Empire, and it is difficult to pack that many words into 3 hours and keep it intelligent and vital throughout. He won’t win, but his nomination is looking very likely.

3. Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy – The third leg of the trilogy is perhaps the best screenplay achievement of them all. I cannot see these guys getting snubbed.

4. Philomena – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope – It is a little strange thinking about Steve Coogan being a nominee, but his movie will get the British vote. It seems like a very well-written and interesting script.

5. August: Osage County – Tracy Letts – My rule against putting movies based on plays in my predictions comes to an end here. The movie is going to be bigger than most expected, and the acting nominations have to mean something.

Others in contention

6. Captain Phillips – Billy Ray – I am not really convinced that the screenplay here is all that impressive, but Billy Ray is a name and the movie could be a dark horse contender in the major categories.

7. Blue Is the Warmest Color – Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix – The foreign film got the Diving Bell treatment by not competing for Foreign Language Film, which could bode well for the other major categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. American Hustle – Eric Singer, David O. Russell – Russell has been in and around the Oscars consistently for three films in a row, and this is yet another chance to give him that award that he is due.

2. Nebraska – Bob Nelson – If there is a little film that could, it is Nebraska. The screenplay is outstanding, every bit as good as Payne’s scripts.

3. Her – Spike Jonze – This is the most likely spot for this film to get recognized. It appears to be too far out there for the major awards, despite the mass of critic awards it has received thus far.

4. Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen – It is not his finest film, but his dramas are beloved by the Academy. Will they remember his film? I had my doubts about Midnight in Paris, and that performed exceedingly well without the potential acting noms.

5. Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler – Weinstein will not let the most important movie of the year be forgotten. This will be that interesting nomination that will surprise most people, much like say Margin Call and The Messenger, among others.

Others in contention

6. Inside Llewyn Davis – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – It feels a little strange not predicting the Coens, but the buzz around the film has faded.  It may still sneak in just on their merit alone.

7. Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron – It had an amazing screenplay, but science-fiction is not the Academy’s thing. Look for other major noms, but not here.

8. Enough Said – Nicole Holofcener – Gandolfini’s death seems to be helping this film find its audience. Holofcener has made some great films, none of which have received a single nom.

9. Saving Mr. Banks – Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith – The movie is super light and predictable, but it is Disney. If the movie continues to make a bunch of money, I expect the Oscar noms to come flooding its way.

10. Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Danny Strong – Another Weinstein movie that will be hard to forget come nomination morning, due to its overachieving box office.

11. Short Term 12 – Destin Cretton –  I am not entirely sure how this will be treated, but if there is a film that could come out of nowhere, it is this little festival favorite.

12. Dallas Buyers Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack – The movie had an underwhelming box office run, but its acting might be able to help the screenplay just enough to slide in.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle – Bill Simmons said that watching Jennifer Lawrence is like watching 1997-2001 Tiger Woods. That is the highest compliment you can ever give someone in their craft. She is Meryl Streep #2, except she is a huge box office star as well.

2. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave – Her nomination is guaranteed. Only if the film is in for a sweep, she can dethrone Lawrence. No one else can win this.

3. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County – She has gotten the important nominations, and she hasn’t been invited back since 2000 despite several Golden Globe noms. This will change that.

4. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – She is Oprah, and she supposedly has a scene-stealing part in the popular movie. I can’t see her missing out.

5. June Squibb – Nebraska – Only 10 times have actors gotten a SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice nom and then got snubbed by the Oscars. Squibb was recognized by all three, and even though she is not a typical nominee, she will get in. With a Ruby Dee-esque SAG win, she could jump out front.

Others in contention

6. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station – Her performance stands as one of the best from the year’s first half, and if people still remember it, she could easily get that validation nomination.

7. Margo Martindale – August: Osage County – Her successful work as a character actress in TV and such will help her. She needs to steal the show in the film to get in.

8. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine – Her Golden Globe nom helps her cause, as well as the fact that Woody’s supporting ladies always seem to be singled out. She could be a cool surprise.

9. Scarlett Johansson – Her – The Golden Globes considered her ineligible, but the Oscars have yet to do so. She is said to really drive that movie without ever appearing onscreen.

10. Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers Club – If the movie is beloved like it could be, she could be swept in. Many still think she got jobbed by her Juno snub.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Melissa Leo – Prisoners

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club – He always does great work, and he is dominating awards season so far. He should coast to a win if people have warmed up to him since Chapter 27.

2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave – He is not even going to campaign his incredible performance. Maybe that will work in his favor?

3. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips – He has really shown up in the early awards, and he is the emotional core of the film. I love his chances.

4. Daniel Bruhl – Rush – His film seems to be forgotten, except for his outstanding leading performance. Being in the wrong category ensures his status as a lock for a nom.

5. James Gandolfini – Enough Said – He has gotten a couple mentions so far, and he is said to be very sensitive in the film. Playing against type will help the recently deceased character actor.

Others in contention

6. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle – He just got in last year, and while he definitely does his thing in the movie, I feel like it may be a bit too much too quick for him.

7. Will Forte – Nebraska – Forte getting in would be like Maggie Gyllenhaal getting pulled in by Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Forte is definitely a lead in the movie and is extremely subtle. It is not a normal Oscar role, but if they love the movie, he could surprise us.

8. Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street – He steals basically the entire movie, and he is a recent nominee. If the movie wins over the Academy and nominates Leo, which it probably won’t, then he will probably get invited as well.

9. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks – Hanks could get a double nomination, but this film has not performed well thus far. Maybe the role is too effortless to get recognized in a category that is usually reserved for scene-stealers.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Sam Rockwell – The Way, Way Back

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine – Blanchett has not been back since 2007’s double nomination, which is too long for one of our best actresses. She owns the movie.

2. Sandra Bullock – Gravity – Her recent win will ensure her nomination and likely hurt her chances of winning.

3. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks – This is a classic role that is a lock for a nom and will never actually stand a chance at taking the award home.

4. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County – She is Streep, she is in.

5. Judi Dench – Philomena – Dame Judi Dench, snubbed last year for Skyfall, will get a makeup nomination. At least that is how the Academy will look at it. This category is basically over.

Others in contention

6. Brie Larson – Short Term 12 – If there is a performance that could dethrone one of the former winners who seem like locks, it would be this young rising star. Appearing in Don Jon and The Spectacular Now certainly helps her cause as well.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Berenice Bejo – The Past

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club – He stole The Wolf of Wall Street, dominated Mud, and has this career role. I bet he takes it home with his first nomination.

2. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave – He is guaranteed to get in, but something about his role just does not really scream Oscar. He is far too skilled and subtle of an actor.

3. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips – Hanks will get nominated here, his first nom since 2000. I can’t see this being his third win, though. He will have to wait to tie Day-Lewis.

4. Bruce Dern – Nebraska – I do not love his chances, but he is certainly a frontrunner to secure one of these last couple spots. He hasn’t been nominated since 1978, so this could validate a long career of memorable supporting roles.

5. Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – Mandela’s death might give this film and performance the boost it needed. It is playing everywhere, and everyone loves Elba. This seems like that “duh” performance on nomination morning that no one was really predicting, like Javier Bardem in Biutiful recently.

Others in contention

6. Robert Redford – All Is Lost – This is an actor’s acting role, but he got snubbed by SAG. Maybe he is just looked at as a director now. Redford having just one career acting nom is unacceptable.

7. Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – He got the SAG nom, but the film will really need the Weinstein push for the former winner to get nominated in this exceedingly crowded category.

8. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street – Leo is constantly snubbed (of those 10 times that actors got the BFCA, HFPA, and SAG noms with an Oscar snub, two were Leo). If he gets in, it would be reminiscent of Rooney Mara in 2011 or Joaquin Phoenix in 2012. The film is not Oscar stuff, but the director is one of their guys and the daring work of its star is undeniable. He may sneak a well-deserved and unexpected nomination.

9. Christian Bale – American Hustle – He absolutely disappears into his role. It may not be the most obvious Oscar role, but it is clear that he is developing a screen presence of an early De Niro.

10. Joaquin Phoenix – Her – There is something about this performance that makes me think that he is still in the running, despite getting snubbed by the important precursors.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Mads Mikkelsen – The Hunt

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity – The film is all about the vision of its director. Splitting Picture and Director is rare, but so is this achievement. I have him taking home the gold.

2. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave – He will win if the film is winning everything, most likely. Then again, in 1998 and 2000, the Best Picture winner basically swept everything except for Director, which went to an uncommon directing achievement. Is this the next in line of that group?

3. David O. Russell – American Hustle – Russell’s nomination is guaranteed…again. He can’t win this unless the film starts taking the major televised awards.

4. Alexander Payne – Nebraska – The Academy loves Mr. Payne, and of all his directions, this one might be his most impressive. It feels, looks, and sounds like a Payne film from start to finish, when he had nothing to do with the writing of it. He is one of a kind.

5. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street – I am not expecting the film to be super popular with the Academy, but the direction is one of his best recently and the Academy eats up everything he does.

Others in contention

6. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips – He got his lone nom for United 93, and while this film is not to that level, it does feature a very strong, Oscary directorial effort.

7. Spike Jonze – Her – He has been nominated before for something quirky (Being John Malkovich in 1999), but this does not seem quite as imagination-filled. Unless the Academy is desperate to give it some love in major categories, he will likely miss out.

8. Lee Daniels – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – He is a past nominee, and Weinstein has his back.

9. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens are always getting nominated, but this movie seems destined to be one of their first forgotten ones in a long time.

10. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine – Allen gets nominated for directing almost as much as writing. If his film really connected with the voters, then this nom would not surprise me at all.

11. Ron Howard – Rush – Howard is still one of the elite directors out there, and this is his best film in years. It is Oscar stuff, yet it faded quickly after its release. Can it be resurrected?

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) – It is the future classic, and one whose subject matter is very Oscar friendly. It will take a big surprise for it to be dethroned.

2. American Hustle (David O. Russell) – If there is a popular movie that could take over, it would be Russell’s breezy comedy-drama. I thought the same about Silver Lining’s Playbook, though…

3. Nebraska (Alexander Payne) – I can’t see this being a winner, but it could show up this high on several ballots. Maybe it is our best dark horse contender.

4. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) – Sci-fi is not treated well by the Academy, but since we have had more than five nominees, they have shown up here and there.

5. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass) – Maybe if the Academy really loved it then it could stand a chance. I just do not see it really competing for the win.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) – The PGA nom ensured that it is beloved by the people that matter, but winning is going to be hard for a movie so vulgar. The older voters are not going to let it happen.

7. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) – Allen’s flick got a boost by the PGA. The Academy will eat up anything he does with any sort of quality.

8. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee) – With the PGA and acting noms coming its way, I can see this being a movie that steadily gains momentum throughout the season.

9. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock) – Hancock looks like he is going to secure a second consecutive undeserved Best Picture nom.

10. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Lee Daniels) – I still think this has a shot, despite its PGA snub. Weinstein needs to remind everyone why it was so popular at the box office.

Others in contention

11. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen) – The Coens are normally here no matter what, but this movie seems different. They were even nominated here for A Serious Man, a movie that no one understood. I don’t know. I cannot get a read on this movie.

12. Her (Spike Jonze) – The PGA certainly helped the film’s chances, but I still just cannot picture this film being called on nomination morning in this category.

13. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler) – The movie is way too small to really compete for the major awards, but the Sundance win and Weinstein backing are hard to pass up. I am rooting for it.

14. Rush (Ron Howard) – If the Academy can remember how good this was, then it will be hard to leave off their top 10s.

15. August: Osage County (John Wells) – The acting nominations will help its cause, but I am not optimistic here.

16. Lone Survivor (Peter Berg) – This would be a The Blind Side-level shocker nomination. If it really rules the box office in the coming weeks, then watch out.

Thoughts? Predictions? Potential shockers? Who would you vote for? Comment below.