Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2015: Super Bowl XLIX

            If you were in Las Vegas last week and put money on Bill Nye, false fire alarms, and My Cousin Vinny as playing significant roles in the increasingly elaborate storyline leading up to this year’s Super Bowl, then congratulations – your prescience is so amazing that you probably don’t need a Super Bowl 49 preview column like this one to figure out which team will emerge victorious.  But for the rest of us mere mortals who predicted the Super Bowl 49 storylines would principally revolve around Pete Carroll’s rematch with Robert Craft, Brandon Browner’s rematch with the Legion of Boom, and whether the team of the 2010s is better than the team of the 2000s – you know, the normal kind of football storylines going into a championship game – then obviously you don’t understand the NFL, the National Fallacy League.

            It’s been 21 weeks since the opening week of the 2014 season, but it feels like it has been about 21 years.  Back then, in August, the biggest questions being asked by football fans were mostly “When will Johnny Football take over as starter for the Browns?” or “What team, if any, will pick up Michael Sam?” or “Can the league finally adopt a firm policy about concussions/pass interference calls/PATs?” Since then, the league has suffered tremendous public relations fiascos ranging from Ray Rice to Adrian Peterson to Ray McDonald to (yes, somewhat predictably) Johnny Manziel.  None of these situations has shed positive light on the tenure of Roger Goodell, who has come across as much corrupt and incompetent as staggeringly hypocritical.  Meanwhile, we’re stuck with two teams in the title game, one of which got caught illegally deflating footballs which, according to some, isn’t as uncommon an incidence in the NFL as actually getting caught doing it.  And while the other team may not have deflated footballs, they haven’t exactly been immune to bending the rules themselves. 

            It’s a dog-eat-world out there and as Jeremy Irons says in Margin Call, there are only three ways of making a living in the professional football business: Being first, being smarter, or cheating.  Let’s assume that the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are spectacularly guilty of the last two.  That only leaves being first (as in first place, not the way Irons actually means it in the movie, as in “first to liquidate all the firm’s shares en route to the systematic collapse of Wall Street.”)  As the defending champs, the Seahawks are still technically first.  The Patriots have finished first three times, but the last time they actually hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, George W. Bush had just won reelection, no one had ever heard of Kim Kardashian, Kanye West, Mark Zuckerberg or YouTube, and the city of New Orleans was intact and had a quarterback named Aaron Brooks.  Hell, the last time the Patriots won the Super Bowl, the most promising athletic hopes for the city of Seattle lay in the hands of the Rashard Lewis/Ray Allen-led Sonics.

            So we get the point: If the Patriots are old money, the Seahawks are nouveau riche.  If New England is East Egg, then Seattle is West Egg.  If Tom Brady is Cal Hockley in Titanic, then Russell Wilson is Jack Dawson (shout out to bros from Wisconsin!)  Shall we keep going?  In 1964, the New York Yankees, led by 32-year-old Mickey Mantle and 35-year-old Whitey Ford, were vying for their 10^th title in the Casey Stengel era, but lost to the upstart St. Louis Cardinals, a team led by 28-year-old Bob Gibson and 25-year-old Lou Brock – a team which would win two of the next four World Series.  The Yankees’ Golden era ended with that defeat.  In 1989, the Los Angeles Lakers were playing for their 6^th championship in the 1980s, but after the Bad Boy Pistons stunned them in a 4-0 series sweep, the Kareem/Magic Lakers dynasty collapsed, while Detroit won two straight titles.  From 1981 to 1996, the NFC won 16 straight Super Bowls; since John Elway’s shocking upset of Brett Favre’s Packers in Super Bowl 32, the NFC has gone 7-10.

            The problem with that analogy is that the Yankees, Lakers and the NFC did not experience a ten-year stretch without a title like the 2014 Patriots have.  That would mean that they would no longer be considered dynasties.  Therefore, can we all just agree right now that the Patriots are no longer a dynasty?  They certainly were in the era of Rodney Harrison, Ty Law, and Mike Vrabel.  But outside of Tom Brady, Big Vince, and Coach Belichick’s hoodies, there are no real remnants from those Super Bowl championships (whether we should have won somewhere between two and five Super Bowls since 2004 is another debate entirely.)  But at the same time, are we not being premature by declaring the Seahawks already this decade’s dynasty?  Sure they annihilated Peyton Manning in the playoffs last year, but so did Billy Volek and Jay Fiedler. 

            This is a long, roundabout way of saying one of two things: Either we’re overestimating the greatness of both of these teams since neither are technically dynasties at this point, or Super Bowl 49 will go a very long way in how the legacies of the Patriots and the Seahawks are remembered.  If the Patriots win, their title of the “Team of the 2000s” holds up to scrutiny (at least for now).  And if the Seahawks win, that signifies that the torch has been officially passed; at this point, they’ve pretty much owned every other NFL franchise/great quarterback since the beginning of the Carroll/DangerRuss era (with the exceptions of Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, and every team they actually have to go on the road to play).  If Tom Brady wins, he will join Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings.  If Russell Wilson wins, he will join the immortal, illustrious company of such luminaries as Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jim Plunkett.

            (OK, OK.  I told myself I would limit my cheapshots directed at the Seahawks, but I couldn’t resist that one.  But hey, I just wrote three paragraphs essentially outlining why the Patriots are overrated in the public consciousness, so give me a break.)

            But in the midst of DeflateGate, there are other factors too.  If the Patriots win, people will remember the 2014 as one that should have an asterisk next to their name.  If the Pats lose, it will only reaffirm the notion that Belichick cannot win without cheating.  And the repercussions of DeflateGate aren’t too rosy for the Seahawks either; even if Seattle wins, their victory will be somewhat tarnished by the histrionics directed disproportionally at the Patriots in the weeks leading up to the game, inevitably adding an atypical “lack of focus” and “dysfunction” to how the Patriots will have played.  Meanwhile, Seattle fans should be very nervous when they recall the times overwhelming public scrutiny has drawn the ire of Belichick/Brady; after SpyGate in 2007, they were 39 seconds away from a 19-0 season, and after losing 41-14 to Kansas City this season, it was “on to Cincinnati” and a virtual resurrection of the 2007 team’s anger and relentless focus.

            As a Patriots fan and a Seahawks hater, this game represents everything.  If the Pats lose, there will be no worse feeling in the world – except maybe knowing that we’ve now lost three Super Bowls in the Brady/Belichick era, while the Royals and Ducks just recently blew their most realistic shots at a title for the foreseeable future.  Yikes.  If the Patriots win, that’s great and wonderful and validates everything I love about this team.  But that I already know.  It’s like how psychologists say that it takes at least six positive experiences to outweigh the emotional damage of a single negative experience.  Being a sports fan, we all know it really takes more like twenty or thirty.

            I watch these teams a lot and know their strengths and weaknesses.  I am not a football coach, but their wins and losses have affected me in unusually impactful ways.  As someone originally from Oregon, I get real tired of answering the question of why I hate the Seahawks.  The answer?  I don’t really know.  I started hating them in the Holmgren/Kitna era (you can read a more detailed history from my Super Bowl preview from last year).  To me, they’re like the little brother that quietly gets everything he wants because he knows how to manipulate Mom and Dad.  “Oh, playing in the same division as John Elway and Rich Gannon is too tough?  Then let’s move you to the NFC West – at precisely the time the Rams and 49ers enter a dormant period.”  “Oh, you got hazed over in the Super Bowl because of bad officials?  Let’s give you an unbelievable stretch of luck, like this or this or getting a home playoff game with a 7-9 record and doing this.  Oh, we’ll also make sure you don’t get any more bad calls for many years to come, so everyone just turn the other cheek when this or this happens.”  “Don’t like playing on the road?  Let’s give you an endless supply of Microsoft money and make our stadium unreasonably difficult to play in.  Then all you have to do is win against heavyweights like Arizona and St. Louis!  And feel free to be total douchebags while you’re at it.” If you’re a Breaking Bad fan, the Seahawks are like Jesse Pinkman’s little brother in that one episode from the first season.

            Anyway, where was I?  Oh yes, I know these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses. The Patriots’ strengths are: Playing a ridiculously tough schedule (Denver, Baltimore, Indy twice, Green Bay, Detroit, San Diego, Kansas City, Buffalo twice, and Cincinnati – that’s 11 games against teams above .500 for those of you counting at home); playing virtually unstoppable offensive football since the debacle in Kansas City on September 29 (12-2 since then; the two losses being a five-point defeat at Lambeau and a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Bills without Brady, Edelman, or Gronk); the best secondary in the AFC; the best tight end in the history of football; and the best third-down offense I’ve ever seen in person. 

            The Seahawks’ strengths: Playing unreal defense down the stretch (39 points surrendered in their final six games); having the best rushing offense in the league (Beast Mode and Wilson combining for over 2,100 yards on the ground); playing an OK schedule (9 games versus above-.500 opponents, although a few of those games came against Ryan Lindley, Mark Sanchez, and injured Aaron Rodgers); finding ways to remain competitive in games even when their offense chooses to not show up (see the Dallas, San Diego, and Green Bay games); and being unbeatable at home – except, of course, to the one team that beat them at Qwest Field this year.  That’s right, the same team that missed advancing to Seattle by this much. 

            Both teams have similar weaknesses: When the opposing team controls the ball on the ground, converts key third downs, and when the offense is out of rhythm.  The Patriots are 12-0 when scoring 23 or more points; the Seahawks are 1-4 when allowing 24 or more points.  Seattle is 13-0 when allowing under 22 points; New England is 2-4 when they score less than 22. The Patriots’ offensive line has occasionally been a sore point during the season (as evidenced by the pitiful ground performance against the Ravens) while injuries to Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill have made the Seahawks interior defensive line vulnerable more than one time.  Both teams needed miraculous comeback performances this season that involved trickery and downright luck (the Patriots’ recovered fumbles vs. Baltimore, the Seahawks’ onside kick and two-point conversion vs. Green Bay).  It’s more than fair to say that the Seahawks haven’t seen an offense like the Patriots, while the Patriots haven’t seen a defense like the Seahawks. 

            In terms of player matchups: The key one will be Gronk versus Kam Chancellor, but what interests me more is how Seattle’s lengthy and physical secondary (with the questionable health of Sherman and Earl Thomas) will have to find ways to stop Brady’s near-nondefensible short seam routes to Edelman, Vereen, and Amendola.  This was a secondary engineered to stop Demaryius Thomas and Randall Cobb, not receivers like Edelman.  No, LaGarrette Blount probably won’t tear up Seattle like he did to Indianapolis, but we know that Belichick won’t hesitate from abandoning the run entirely, as he did against Baltimore (and as Mike McCarthy and too many other coaches did not against Seattle).  As for when the Seahawks have the ball, Lynch can certainly emulate the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Eddie Lacy and tear New England apart across the middle (in a game like this, Patriots fans undoubtedly miss Jerod Mayo).  This offense certainly has no problems moving the ball after halftime and when facing double-digit deficits.  But I suspect that Carroll will make no hesitations and be aggressive with Wilson, daring Revis and Browner to play safe in the secondary while he pulls the ball and scrambles downfield for big gains.  The responsibility of stopping Wilson will fall on the hands of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, and particularly Jamie Collins, whose speed and agility make him a formidable defensive threat.

            If there is a gameplan for the Patriots to imitate, it should be San Diego from the Chargers’ Week Two win over Seattle.  In that game, the Chargers didn’t overly commit to the run, while Rivers picked up key third downs and Antonio Gates assaulted the secondary for three touchdown receptions.  Lynch only had six carries, and San Diego controlled the ball for over 42 minutes.  I think the Patriots will opt for a more aggressive game plan – especially in light of the Packers’ epic meltdown as a result of being overly conservative – but ball control will be a key for New England, which worries me if the running game won’t be overly emphasized.

            And if there’s a game for the Seahawks to watch closely, the best example would be the Ravens from three weeks ago.  For the first 35 minutes of the game, Baltimore executed practically everything perfectly, with Justin Forsett having little difficulties gaining copious yards on the ground and Joe Flacco finding open receivers on long passes (and pass interference calls on his incompletions). We couldn’t move the ball on the ground, and even our passing game was unstoppable in the second half, we had to resort to trick plays and gimmicks.  We still could have blown that game in the final seconds.  But hey, the Seahawks were dead-to-rights with five minutes left in the NFC Championship.

            Well, let’s just get the obligatory drama out of the way: I’m picking the Patriots.  You know that.  The question is why.  Three central things stick out to me.  First, I genuinely believe the Patriots have played far better competition than the Seahawks this season.  The Seahawks played four good offenses all year –San Diego, Dallas, Denver, and Green Bay.  They lost to San Diego and Dallas, had to go to overtime to beat Denver at home, and we all know what happened against the Packers two weeks ago.  They looked vulnerable in all four the AFC games they played, while New England looked strong in its four NFC games (including its loss at Lambeau – the Packers' closest margin of victory at home all year). The AFC East was better than the NFC West (especially after Carson Palmer’s injury) and overall, the AFC was a stronger conference than the NFC.  Don’t believe me?  Look at the strength of schedule rankings.  The eight toughest schedules in the league all belonged to AFC teams, including New England (Seattle still ranked a respectable 14^th).

            Secondly, I think playing on the road is a considerably tougher challenge for Seattle than it is for New England – especially considering that University of Phoenix Stadium should be much more conducive to the offenses.  Sure, Seattle is the only team of the two to have won a game there this year; but once again, Ryan Lindley and Stepfan Taylor will sadly not be on the playing field this Sunday.  Of the 17 receiving touchdowns Seattle gave up during the regular season, 11 of them came to tight ends.  During the five games the Seahawks faced a top-10 tight end (by receiving yardage), that tight end averaged 13.6 yards per reception.  Seahawk fans can make a case that Bobby Wagner’s injury affected coverage in the middle of the field, but simply put, no one in the league has proven to successfully contain a healthy Rob Gronkowski.  If this game was to be played in snowy New York City (like last year’s Super Bowl should have been), there would be fewer concerns about offenses and moving the ball through the air.  Playing indoor football favors New England; however, that does not eradicate the respect this Seattle defense obviously commands.

            Finally, I think the Pats will emerge from the events of the past couple weeks with a renewed discipline, ferocity, and commitment to executing all phases of the game (if I’m sounding like Belichick, sorry).  As for the Seahawks, there is a reason why so few NFL teams have proven capable of repeating as champions.  Sure they’ve played hungry, agitated football for the last six months.  Sure, they have something to prove (and believe me, DangerRuss wants that maxed contract extension).  But for Tom Brady, the anger has lasted ten years, and in 2014, he was given everything he’s been missing the last decade: A spectacular secondary, a healthy Gronkowski, a core of reliable receivers, and a reshuffled offensive line that makes the offense look very 2007-ish at times.  When I saw that Vegas is favoring the Patriots by two points, I immediately felt sick to my stomach – I thought, “we’re giving two points to the defending champions in the very same stadium where we blew our perfect season seven years ago?”  But then I thought about all the adversity this Patriots team has faced all season – from those embarrassing losses to Miami and Kansas City, to losing Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo for the season, to that insane five-week stretch where we played the Broncos/Colts/Lions/Packers/Chargers, to being down 14 points at two different times in the Baltimore game.  Then I thought of the adversity of being called cheaters and liars by the media and former players, and everyone doubting our abilities on the field.  But then I remembered how Bill Belichick pulled a Mona Lisa Vito in his press conference, and basically kicked ass in front of all the haters by publicly defending his team.  And then I remembered that in 2014, we always overcame that adversity and ended up playing like the best team in football, which is fully the way I expect this team to play Sunday.  On to Seattle.

Prediction: Just as I predicted back in September... New England 31, Seattle 30. 

Prop Bets:

Covert gambling references made by Al Michaels +4.5

Total musical scales covered by Idina Menzel +6.5

Number of people who will think that Idina Menzel is Johnny Manziel's sister +7 million

Odds that John Travolta will introduce Adele Dahzin Idina Menzel: 1000 to 1 (hey, it is Roger Goodell's league we're talking about)

Odds that Gronk's favorite movie is Frozen: 3 to 1

Odds that Belichick's favorite movie is My Cousin Vinny: 2 to 1

Odds that Roger Goodell's favorite movie is Inglourious Basterds: Even.

NFL Mock Draft 2014

The NFL Draft is one of my favorite sporting events of the year. Making a mock draft is sometimes pointless because the draft is so unpredictable (except when it is in the form of that stupid Kevin Costner movie). There are trades and horrible picks that throw a wrench into even an NFL Draft Insider’s mock drafts. One thing we do know…there will be a QB, DE, or OT drafted first overall. Last time that didn’t happen? 18 years ago, Keyshawn Johnson. This year will continue that trend rule. Check out my soon-to-be irrelevant mock draft below and see what I project your favorite team to take in the first round, as well as a draft wish list for my world champion Seattle Seahawks (never gets old calling them that).

1. Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina – He has been the consensus #1 pick since he did this. The Texans desperately need a quarterback, but they can get a totally solid NFL starter in the second round of this draft.

2. St. Louis Rams Atlanta Falcons – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo – The Falcons are no stranger to trading up in the draft. This will likely be pretty expensive, but the team needs a linebacker. Mack is a future star in the league.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida – This would not be a really sexy pick at #3 for a team with a lot of holes, but UCF is only about 150 miles from Jacksonville, so I am sure there are a bunch of Bortles fans in the area. He could be the guy to take them to the top of that division, which is definitely winnable this year.

4. Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M – The Browns are constantly looking for something to make them relevant, so their fans will be clamoring for Manziel when they realize he is available here. This will be their third QB taken in the first round since 2007.

5. Oakland Raiders – Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson – He is one of the scariest deep threats to come into the draft in several years. The Raiders love taking the combine freaks, but this guy also happens to be the best fit for their team. They can get their QB of the future later in the draft.

6. Atlanta Falcons St. Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn – It would be scary for the Rams to pick up a few more picks for trading down and still getting the surefire left tackle they have been searching for the past decade.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan – Lewan is one of the top linemen in the draft, and the Buccs, while filling some holes in free agency, still are thin on the O-Line.

8. Minnesota Vikings Miami Dolphins – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M – The Vikings have had a bunch of first rounders in the past few years, so a trade down here will be welcomed, mainly because they won’t want another Ponder-ish reach for a QB here. The Dolphins were close last year to making a playoff run, and while they addressed their O-line needs with Brandon Albert, they will jump at the chance to groom his heir at RT.

9. Buffalo Bills – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M – Evans is that huge wide-out that is impossible to guard. They are going to need him if they want to score against that beefed up Patriots secondary.

10. Detroit Lions – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama – The Lions are always in need of secondary help. Clinton-Dix is maybe the most talented one in this draft. Having a playmaker at that position can be a game changer for the annually tortured Lions D.

11. Tennessee Titans – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State – With Alterraun Verner heading off to the Buccs, the Titans need to fill that gap. Gilbert is clearly the best corner in the draft, and picking him here makes so much sense that they probably won’t do it.

12. New York Giants – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh – The Giants have several holes, but none more obvious that the defensive line. With the running games in that division, they need to beef up the interior. Donald was the best defensive player in the country as a senior.

13. St. Louis Rams Green Bay Packers – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina – The Rams trade down again. With Jermichael Finley departing, the Packers are suddenly without their tight end of the future. Their receiving core has taken hits in the past couple years. Ebron will be a great addition to that offense.

14. Chicago Bears – CJ Mosley, ILB, Alabama – Mosley was one of the consensus top defensive players in the nation each of the past two years. The Bears need help on defense, and their long-term answer at their most storied position ought to be chief among them.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State – The Steelers have some secondary holes, and if they want a shutdown corner, Dennard is as good as it gets in this draft. He won’t be the playmaker that Gilbert will be, but he will be able to be on an island against most offenses.

16. Dallas Cowboys – Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota – Doesn’t he already sound like a Cowboy D-Lineman? The guy is an absolute beast, and like the Giants, they need some run stuffers in that division.

17. Baltimore Ravens – Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia – With the departure of Blind Right Side Michael Oher, the Ravens need to shore up the right side of the line, as well as the center position. Take the right tackle early, take the center later.

18. New York Jets – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU – The Jets just signed Eric Decker, but if they want Geno Smith to really mature, they need to surround him with at least as much talent as he had at West Virginia. Beckham is dynamic, and would be a great player for them.

19. Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings – Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State – A lot of people are projecting Carr to go in the top 10, but once you get past Bortles and Manziel, the signal callers will start to drop. This is a much better spot for their QB of the future to get selected.

20. Arizona Cardinals – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville – Put Pryor in a secondary with the likes of Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson, and the Cardinals might suddenly have the second best secondary in the division (and entire NFL).

21. Green Bay Packers St. Louis Rams – Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State – The envied tall athletic receiver finds his spot on a team that has loaded up on that position in the past few drafts. With Benjamin, Bailey, Givens, Quick, and Austin at the slot, we are suddenly looking at a dynamic passing offense, barring Sam Bradford injuries, of course.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA – Chip Kelly seems to love taking players he couldn’t get the best of in college, and this one would be no different. He is one of the most talented playmakers in the draft, and he is quite versatile. He is a perfect fit for that scheme.

23. Kansas City Chiefs – Xavier Su’a-Gilo, G, UCLA – He has been called the best guard prospect in several years, and the Chiefs are going to need to make up for losing some of their interior line to free agency. Seems like a rock solid fit.

24. Cincinnati Bengals – Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame – Their offensive line is far from great, and the versatile Martin would be a perfect fit and mini-steal at this stage in the draft.

25. San Diego Chargers – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State – After an underwhelming season, Roby falls way further than he expected to a year ago. The Chargers need corner help, especially being the same division as the Broncos.

26. Cleveland Browns – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State – The Browns are going to need some weapons for Manziel, and they might as well start with the stat machine and most dependable receiver in the draft. Cooks would be their top guy from day one.

27. New Orleans Saints Oakland Raiders – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville – The Saints trade out of the pick since all of the first-round quality offensive linemen are gone. The Raiders take the nine-spot leap to get their new quarterback in training behind veteran Matt Schaub.

28. Carolina Panthers – Marqise Lee, WR, USC – With Steve Smith leaving town, they are going to need a new security blanket for Newton. Lee will be a stud from the moment he steps on the practice field…if he is motivated.

29. New England Patriots – Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame – An upgrade up front on defense will be a solid move for the Patriots. Their secondary seems to be in good hands now through free agency, they love drafting pass rushers, and now they can get one more run stuffer to secure that side of the ball.

30. San Francisco 49ers – Dee Ford, DE, Auburn – Defensive line depth never hurt anyone, especially with your prized possession DE getting arrested for acting like a terrorist at the airport. Ford would be a beast in that scheme.

31. Denver Broncos – Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU – He was one of the most dynamic linebackers in the nation two years ago, so he certainly has the talent to get taken in the first round. They spent a bunch of money on all defensive positions other than LB, so this seems like a great choice for the Super Bowl runner-up.

32. Seattle Seahawks – Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State – He is a furious pass rusher, and with Chris Clemons departing with the rest of Seattle’s free agents to Jacksonville, this seems like the biggest position of need for the team. It would be a mild reach, but they are not opposed to shaking it up in the first round.

Seattle Seahawks: Draft Suggestions/Wish List

Round 1, Pick 32 – Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State – The Hawks need a big bodied wide receiver who can make plays downfield and catch the ball in traffic. Robinson was the only weapon on Penn State, and he still dominated most games. Resigning Sidney Rice does not bode well for drafting a WR in round 1, but I can dream.

Round 2, Pick 64 – David Yankey, G, Stanford – Ever since we lost Steve Hutchinson, we have been searching for the long term answer at left guard. Yankey had a brilliant career in Palo Alto, and would be a slight reach, but we won’t have a chance to get him when we pick again in 68 picks. Best case scenario: we trade down into the beginning of the third to pick up a late round pick vacated by the Terrell Pryor deal, and select Yankey there.

Round 4, Pick 132 – Matt Patchan, OT, Boston College – With Breno Giacomini heading off to the Jets, there is a void at right tackle. We have a couple guys who can step up into that spot, but competition there will be great. Getting the left tackle who opened up holes for 2000 yard rusher Andre Williams seems like a dynamite choice in the 4^th round.

Round 5, Pick 146 – Colt Lyerla, TE, Oregon – He may be a pain off the field, but he is incredibly versatile and would be an asset on our offense. He is an amazing athlete at the tight end position, and taking him could finally mean the end of Anthony McCoy in Seattle.

Round 5, Pick 172 – Trai Turner, G, LSU – He is a developmental guard, perfect for Tom Cable. He played in a pro-style offense in college, and coming out as a redshirt sophomore means that he has the confidence in himself to step up. He will not be asked to play this year, but having that O-line depth is always good.

Round 6, Pick 208 – Ciante Evans, CB, Nebraska – Losing Walter Thurmond leaves an opportunity to groom the next great slot corner. Having seen every game that Evans played in college, I can honestly say that he is one of the great shutdown nickel backs I have seen at the college level. He would be a steal at pick 208.

POTENTIAL UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS TO PURSUE

QB: Casey Pachall, TCU – He had his off the field issues, but he is a gamer. If he had remained clean throughout his college days, then he would be a draftable player. Bring him into camp and let him prove that he belongs in the league.

RB: Adam Muema, RB, San Diego State – Remember this? It was the strangest story of the combine, and even though he has since said he is done playing football, I am sure we can invite the nutcase to camp. It would be a very Carroll-ish thing to do.

WR: Alex Neutz, Buffalo – He had a very productive career for Buffalo, and he has great NFL size. He was really reliable in big games, and he was the only real receiving threat on the squad.

TE: Jacob Pedersen, Wisconsin – He would be a nice fit for the Hawks. He is a lot like Zach Miller and Luke Willson, so adding a practice squad guy to wait in the wings would be beneficial.

DE: Jake Metz, Shippensburg – He has the right size, he was his small conference’s defensive player of the year, and recorded 11 sacks as a senior. We have hit on a few small school guys, so he would be worth the invite.

OLB: Kyler Elsworth, Michigan State – He had that amazing play at the end of the Rose Bowl, diving over the line on fourth down to win the game for the Spartans, he was on people’s radars. He wasn’t a combine invite, so he is going to have a chip on his shoulder, as he did throughout college. He is going to be motivated and has a good chance to make a roster somewhere.

S: Mycal Swaim, Eastern Michigan – 6’4’’ 212 pounds. He would fit right in on this team. Recently, we have basically been redshirting rookies, so placing him on the practice squad and learning play the position from Kam Chancellor would be ideal.

Thoughts? Comments? What do you want your team to go after in the draft?

Season Preview and Schedule Breakdown: 2013 Seattle Seahawks

So, the schedule comes out for the upcoming NFL season, and the next day you get my season preview article. I simply cannot get enough. Football season is only about 4 months away. As far as my beloved Seahawks go, it is a vastly different scenario than in last year’s article, where I astonishingly predicted an 11-5 year, “probably either taking the NFC West or scoring the 5^th seed in the playoffs”, and potentially one or two playoff wins. I would say that is about as close as you can come in April pre-draft and assuming your starting quarterback is going to be Matt Flynn and not a third round rookie.

This season is shaping up quite well for the Hawks. We have a doable schedule, but by no means an easy one. Since we are the hottest team in Vegas, many people’s #1 Power Ranking, and a Super Bowl co-favorite, we got rewarded with four prime-time games. We are getting more recognition, which breeds more pressure for our still incredibly young roster of budding superstars. How will they handle it? Well, if our composed rookie QB Russell Wilson (you heard of him?) is any indication, then focus should not be a problem. Sophomore slumps happen, though. Either way, coming into a season looking at making the playoffs and coming in with a virtual “Super Bowl or bust” mentality is an incredibly different feeling.

Last year, we had a giant coming out party for the majority of our team. Essentially every key player is coming back, including our handful of Pro Bowlers and couple All Pros. Last year, we were never going o win it all. We needed that experience and heartbreak to really refocus and come into this year out for blood. We ended with a top 10 scoring offense, probably slightly skewed by our 50-17, 58-0, and 42-13 victories down the stretch. Averaging 33 points per game in the last 8 games was surprising, considering our ugly offense the first half of the year with the training wheels on Wilson. Add in the NFL’s top scoring defense, and our team is as complete as any team in recent memory. The time to win is now, no matter how young we still may be.

This off-season has been a crazy ride. I have never seen a Seattle team make the moves to add to an already close-to-finished product. Trading for Percy Harvin is amazing and exactly what the offense needed. We needed that big play guy, and now whatever formations we end up in, it will be a nightmare for the opposition. We ended up with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to boost our struggling pass rush (the reason we lost in the playoffs and our handful of one-possession losses in the regular season). We got Antoine Winfield to be our nickel corner to cover the slot. We traded Matt Flynn and picked up Brady Quinn, a consummate backup. You see what we are doing? We are fine-tuning our team. The time to win is now, and we know it. We made the moves to fill holes, which is why not having a first round pick is not a big deal. We are no longer building the house, we are painting and furnishing it. We have that luxury, since our stars are all on their rookie contracts, most of which are 3^rd or 5^th rounders making next to nothing. The next two years we have the freedom to sign these guys without killing our cap.

DRAFT

Coming into the draft, it is a much different feel as well. No first round pick is no problem, but we do have 10 picks overall. There is room to move up and get a few good value picks for depth, or we can just take all of them and see which ones become the next fifth round gems that John Schneider can find out of nowhere. Here is my draft breakdown:

 

Team needs (in order)

OLB (potential starter, though not a necessity)

RB (3^rd string)

OT (depth)

OG (depth)

DT (depth)

TE (backup)

QB (developmental)

2^nd Round Watchlist

Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-PB

Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State

Jonathan Franklin, RB, UCLA

Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

John Jenkins, DT, Georgia

Kyle Long, OG, Oregon

Sio Moore, OLB, UConn

Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

Dream Scenario: Trade a slew of picks this and next year to get into the top 5 to take Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida. It will never happen, but if we did: Game Over. Super Bowl champs. Done deal.

Realistic Scenario: Draft Sio Moore, OLB, UConn. He is a tackling machine. Add that to Bobby Wagner, and we would have two. He is athletic, a work horse, a future Pro Bowler. I want him. I hope he falls to us.

Predicted Scenario: Trade up a few spots and take Kyle Long, OG, Oregon. It would be an unexciting pick, but that is what we do. It is either unexciting or called a complete reach. We will never draft flash with this regime.

SCHEDULE

Now, we get into the schedule, released yesterday, April 18^th. The bye week is nicely placed, as is the mini-bye from the Thursday game. Check out how it will all work out…

9/8/13 – at Carolina – This is one of those classic times when expectations are high, as is the disappointment of losing the game. We should have lost in Carolina last year. Cam Newton comes out hot. 10:00AM kick. LOSS 28-24

9/15/13 (SNF) – San Francisco – Prime-time game at home? Coming off a stunning loss on the road? Home opener? The Niners are walking into a buzz saw. WIN 31-21

9/22/13 – Jacksonville – Lowly Jags coming to town with our old DC Gus Bradley as their head coach. He gets a nice reception, but that is the end of their good news. WIN 38-14

9/29/13 – at Houston – I always thought this would end up a prime-time game, but I guess not. 10AM kickoff is a bit scary, but I do not think their offense can keep up. Okung, if healthy, should be able to handle Watt. WIN 27-20

10/6/13 – at Indianapolis – This is going to be a huge matchup between Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. They are so tough at home. Second consecutive 10AM kickoff hurts the offensive rhythm. Loss 24-17

10/13/13 – Tennessee – Jake Locker’s return home should be a cool sight. Clem, Bruce, and company should have fun abusing that offensive line. WIN 31-7

10/17/13 (Thu) – at Arizona – The short week could be a problem, but they are not sneaking up on us this year. This is the start of our midseason push, and Palmer will start getting erratic. Defenses dominate this game. WIN 17-7

10/28/13 (Mon) – at St. Louis – The mini-bye week is in a nice spot, before another primetime matchup. We always seem to struggle in St. Louis getting it going. Last year we lost to a fake FG TD and a couple moon-shot FGs by “Greg the Leg”. Similar things may ensue. LOSS 23-21

11/3/13 – Tampa Bay – Even though Schiano has his boys playing well by this point, I just cannot see any home losses this year, although this would be the type of game we drop somehow. WIN 34-24

11/10/13 – at Atlanta – This is a rematch of one of the most up-and-down emotional games I have ever watched. It is destined to be another classic matchup of perennial playoff teams. I say we take our revenge and have someone stick the ageless TE this time. WIN 24-21

11/17/13 – Minnesota – Well, half of our roster gets to play their old team. Cool. WIN 40-20

---BYE WEEK---

12/2/13 (Mon) – New Orleans – Another Monday Night Football game at home, the first meeting since the “Beast-quake”. We don’t lose these games. This one is no different. High scoring affair, but the athletic little QB gets the better of one of his own inspirations. WIN 38-34

12/8/13 – at San Francisco – At this point, both teams with be jostling for playoff seeding. This will be upgraded to Sunday Night (like I correctly predicted last year), and we will see another ugly game in the rain. Turnovers, trash talk, beautiful football. LOSS 16-10

12/15/13 – at New York Giants – The Giants will likely be making their playoff push by this time, but the Hawks will need to get that bad taste out of their mouth after losing to their archrival. I will put this game on the Beast to win it for us. WIN 20-13

12/22/13 – Arizona – Coming back home to face the Cardinals? Love it. WIN 31-3

12/29/13 – St. Louis – Finishing the year off against the Rams again. Our games with them are always so close. Hopefully our line is healthy so we can actually attempt to block Chris Long this time. I say we squeak out a season-ending victory. WIN 21-20

So, that means we are going 12-4, including a second consecutive unbeaten home record. This will certainly put us in the playoffs, probably just beating out the Niners for the division and two-seed. This will give us a home playoff game, which should be a victory over whoever comes in. If the NFC Championship is in Atlanta or New Orleans or Green Bay, then that will be an epic battle. I say we get beat in any of those places and we win the Super Bowl next year. If we play in any other building, then we are headed to the Super Bowl. I am not going to say we take it, but I would love our chances on a neutral field. We probably lose a heartbreaker if we get there, giving us that much more motivation to be the first team in some 40 years to win a Super Bowl the year after losing it. Either way, next year is the year. This year is all about gaining the experience of being in Championship games and developing that frontrunner mentality. I wish we could have taken care of that last year, but we have to wait our turn. Final playoff prediction: Loss on the road in the NFC Championship to eventual Super Bowl champion Atlanta Falcons.

It will be an interesting year in the NFC West. The Rams are going to be right there battling for a playoff spot. The Cardinal shouldn’t be a complete pushover with Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians. The Niners have copied every move we make with a slightly less prestigious transaction, but they lost their Pro Bowl safety, UW alum Dashon Goldson. That could hurt the continuity of that stellar defensive unit. In the rest of the NFC, the Falcons are going to be in position to make another Super Bowl run. The Packers are always going to be around. I think the Saints and Niners take the wild cards. The Chip Kelly-led Eagles take the East with a 9-7 record. The NFC is so loaded. It is our turn to win the Super Bowl again.

All of this is of course contingent on Russell Wilson’s health. If they gun for him and he misses a few games, I am scared what kind of ugly makeshift offense we will draw up for Brady Quinn or whoever ends up being the backup. If he is smart and takes care of himself, then we are potentially looking at the NFL MVP this season, if he leads us to 12-4. He was the best QB in the league the last 8 weeks last year and had arguably the most impressive rookie QB season in the last 30 years. It is all on his shoulders. He seems to have the mentality to be immune to a sophomore slump. He spends as much time studying film as he does with his hot wife. He is a freak. That’s my quarterback. The separation is in the preparation. Win forever. I’m in. Go Hawks.

Thoughts? Comments? Your win/loss prediction? How is your favorite team’s schedule? Let me know!

Season Preview: 2012 Seattle Seahawks

Now, it may seem really indulgent to post a pre-draft and pre-OTA preview. I agree. I love my Seahawks and I do not care if no one else cares. Every sports network ignores the Seahawks, except for when they are talking about how bad the NFC West is. It is beyond annoying. Our only hope for national recognition lies with our former players who work for major sports outlets, such as Brock Huard (college football analyst, local ESPN radio affiliate) and Trent Dilfer (we all know he is remembered as a Raven and will not throw us a bone). Anyway, with the NFL schedule getting released earlier today, I felt compelled to talk about it. The schedule for the Hawks looks extremely favorable on paper, and for a team who has been a couple plays away from being a viable threat in the NFC the last two seasons, this will be the year that we break through.

Following last season’s 7-9 affair, expectations could not be higher for this Pete Carroll-led group. I even heard mumbles about if the Hawks had somehow snuck into the playoffs that they would be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. That is how well we were playing down the stretch. That is with a guy who can’t lead a 4^th quarter touchdown drive at QB, who was playing with a torn pectoral muscle. That was with a chop shop offensive line made up of journeymen, Tom Cable’s buddies, and an injury-prone center (which still somehow amounted to the NFL’s best rushing attack in the second half of the season). That was with a couple old ass defensive linemen that still got to the passer. That was with youth all over the secondary (second year players Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor were our veterans), which was one of the best in the league down the stretch. No one wants to throw against two corners who are 6’4 and 6’3. However, with a blown 4^th quarter lead to the Redskins, an impossibly tough 19-17 loss against division champion 49ers, and an overtime heartbreaker to end the season at Arizona, we ended up with 7 wins, the same record as the season before. All the team needed was to get another year of experience and a quarterback who could lead the pack.

This offseason has been interesting. Losing out on Peyton Manning was a blow (as was the unveiling of those atrocious new uniforms). However, many Hawk fans (not necessarily I) are jacked up about the signing of unproven free agent QB Matt Flynn, who I get visions of watching from the sideline while Ryan Perilloux runs his offense at LSU every time I see his face. But, then again, I am not an expert. I hope I am wrong about Flynn and he is out starter for 10 years. That seems to be what most Hawk fans are expecting, so I will ride with the assumption that, you know, he actually can play.

The draft is in 8 days, and this will be a very key time for this team. With the 12^th pick, we have options. We are in a spot where a miss won’t set our franchise back. We are in position to move up into the top 10 (and anyone who listens to Pete Carroll knows that the idea of Ryan Tannehill in blue and green makes him giggle like a schoolgirl), and we are in a spot that people want to trade up to (which we should undoubtedly consider). There are tons of names thrown around by national media (who have no idea what they are talking about when they speak of my Seahawks), by local media, and by bloggers. Here is how it is shaping up:

Consensus pick: Luke Kuechly (ILB, Boston College). That would fill our biggest need, but he won’t fall to us.

My dream pick: Melvin Ingram (OLB, South Carolina). He is an amazing versatile pass-rushing talent, which will add depth and be an instant starter to our only legitimate hole on defense.

Realistic pick: [trade down] Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford). Carroll wants to have his two tight end system, and with John Carlson leaving in the offseason, he could be groomed behind Zach Miller and turn into the next TE putting up insane numbers in the league.

This brings us to our schedule. Many have jumped on the Seahawks for having a brutal road to the playoffs, basically because they don’t take us seriously. When you really analyze it, there are double-digit wins to be had here. All of the really difficult games are at home, and the bye week and post-Thursday night time off are well-placed. Check this out:

9/9/12 – at Arizona – This game was a classic last year to end the season. The Cardinals won 8 games with a bad roster, but the Hawks will make a much bigger jump this year. Seattle always starts off strong. WIN 28-17

9/16/12 – Dallas – Since the Romo fumble, the Cowboys have won three in a row against the Hawks, all in Dallas. The home opener for the Hawks will have the 12^th man rocking and Tony Homo shaking in his little space boots. WIN 31-24

9/24/12 (Mon) – Green Bay – Signing Matt Flynn already paid its dividends by giving us a Monday night game against his former team. We simply do not lose at home in primetime games. It looks like a shootout on paper, but Monday night games are not like that. This is a tough game decided by a field goal set up by Matt Flynn’s first game-winning drive as a Hawk, and the nation can no longer ignore us. WIN 20-17

9/30/12 – at St. Louis – The Seahawks have had incredible success against the Rams as of late. Even though the Rams are going to be much improved with Justin Blackmon inevitably getting drafted by them, I still think we take this one, low-scoring as usual with the 10 AM start time. Marshawn takes us there. WIN 20-10

10/7/12 – at Carolina – This is a classic game that the NFC West loses every year. Newton goes off and we drop our first game of the year. LOSS 35-24

10/14/12 – New England – Another home game, but this is the only time I see our brilliant young secondary really getting carved up. Chancellor takes Gronkowski out of the game, but Sherman and Browner cannot handle Welker and Hernandez. LOSS 41-28

10/18/12 (Thu) – at San Francisco – Even in our best seasons, we cannot win in San Fran. Under the lights, I see a brutal, ugly win for the home team. LOSS 14-9

10/28/12 – at Detroit – The 10 days off is the key here. This is the end of our most brutal stretch of the schedule (4 out of 5 on the road), but this is where we prevent our team from unraveling. WIN 28-27

11/4/12 – Minnesota – Tavaris playing against his home team is interesting if Flynn gets benched at some point. I cannot see us losing here. WIN 34-13

11/11/12 – New York Jets – By this point, Tebow will obviously be the starter. That does not bode well for whoever he is playing. LOSS 18-15

BYE WEEK

11/25/12 – at Miami – This is a nice place for a bye week to regroup after giving up a last minute TD drive to Tebow. Flynn proves that he chose the right team. WIN 24-20

12/2/12 – at Chicago – Seattle has won in Chicago each of the last two seasons, but Caleb Hanie will not be starting in this game, and it will be in December unlike two years ago. LOSS 28-13

12/9/12 – Arizona – Arizona will probably be playing well by this point, but we will be in the running for a playoff spot. This will be a tough game, but I think we prevail. WIN 23-21

12/16/12 – at Buffalo (in Toronto) – Playing indoors most likely will be a nice way to avoid a freezing weather game late in the year. Buffalo will be improved, but not ready for the rolling Seahawks. WIN 31-21

12/23/12 – San Francisco – This game could be for the division. This will be upgraded to Sunday night, which means a huge primetime victory for the home team in front of its ruckus crowd. WIN 23-17

12/30/12 – St Louis – Even in our worst seasons we didn’t lose to the Rams in Seattle. WIN 24-10

So, that means we will be going 11-5 (4 win increase from 2011), probably either taking the NFC West or scoring the 5^th seed in the playoffs. Depending on which one, we could win a playoff game, and depending on matchups, maybe taking more than one. Many people will say that I am overstating how good we can be, but just look at last season and how close we were with that depleted roster of rookies and no names. We have the talent to be a top 5 defense. Last year, we scored victories against the Super Bowl champion Giants on the road, and we convincingly beat the Ravens (score was not indicative) and Eagles at home. And we didn’t have a quarterback. Our division will be much tougher this year. I suspect that even the Rams will win 6 games or more. The Niners will come back down to earth with a less cakewalk of a schedule and an unhappy quarterback, but their defense is still good for 10+ wins. The Cardinals need to shore up its defense a bit, and they can be every bit as strong as the Seahawks. Our division had some real quality wins last year, but now those games will mean something. I would say that the NFC West will be the talk of the league, but that would mean that people would have to care.

So, I know that I may be a bit of a homer, but no one knows the tendencies of the Seahawks more than I do. 11-5 is my best guess after looking at the schedule. If it is flipped and we go 5-11, which experts will say is 10 times more likely, I will be beyond shocked. This Seahawk defense will not let that happen. This is a playoff team.

Is anyone else drinking the Carroll Kool-Aid? What is your win-loss prediction? How is your favorite team’s schedule and upcoming season shaping up? Let me know.