2016 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers went from relevant in 2014 to completely irrelevant in 2015.  Was that a start of things to come or an anomaly moving forward?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 4th in NL Central

2015 Result: 68-94, 4th in NL Central

I had the Brewers positioned just right in 2015.  They were a mess last season.  The only thing that kept them out of last place was the fact that the Reds were even more of a mess.  They overachieved in 2014, then did nothing to improve themselves.  It was just waiting to happen.  They had a mid-season managerial change and an unloading of some top talent to try and start rebuilding.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers continued unloading some of their big league talent as they started to rebuild their roster for the future.  They traded away players like Adam Lind, Jean Segura, Luis Sardinas, and Khris Davis.  The only established big leaguers that were brought into Milwaukee this offseason were feast or famine hitter Chris Carter and infielder Aaron Hill.

Most Important Hitter

Jonathan Lucroy

Many experts looked at what the Brewers did this offseason and said they didn't do enough.  The reason is because they still have Jonathan Lucroy on their roster.  Once Carlos Gomez was traded, Lucroy was their best player and their best trading chip.  I don't know if they are trying to convince themselves that they are not in a full rebuild or what, but Lucroy needs to move on.  What makes him the most important hitter this season for the Brewers is because the fate of Lucroy might help determine the fate of the Brewers for the foreseeable future.  A catcher with the offensive upside of Lucroy could bring a decent return that could set the Brewers up for a brighter future.  They just need to convince themselves that this is something they need to do.

Most Important Pitcher

Wily Peralta

Honestly, no one on this pitching staff stands out from the crowd.  Outside of the inconsistent veteran Matt Garza, the entire pitching staff is under 30, good talent, and mediocre production.  The pitcher with possibly the highest ceiling of the group is Wily Peralta.  Peralta has been around for a little while, entering his fifth season of big league action.  However, his career ERA right now is over 4.00.  He has some electric stuff, and the Brewers believe in him, which was shown when they named him their Opening Day starter this year.  He has to start living up to expectations if he wants to have any sort of memorable career in the big leagues.

Player to Watch

Orlando Arcia

The one nice thing the Brewers have going for them is they have a pretty deep farm system stocked full of future big league talent.  The cream of the crop is Orlando Arcia, a 21 year old shortstop ready to burst on the scene.  Between Aaron Hill and Jonathan Villar, there should be an opening on the lft side of the infield at some point this season.  Either Hill will be traded or get hurt, or Villar will struggle like he did with the Astros.  Look for Arcia to be up on the big club before the All Star Break.

2016 Prediction

5th in NL Central

The Brewers are bad.  They will be challenging the Braves and Phillies for the worst record in baseball this year.  They are a team that is in full rebuild but haven't seemed to fully commit to it yet.  They are just content on being bad.

Fearless Prediction

Jonathan Lucroy will be traded to the Texas Rangers for Jurickson Profar.

One of the teams that had been talked about in connection to Lucroy all offseason was the Texas Rangers.  Catcher is definitely a position the Rangers could improve upon, and they have the depth on their team to bring him in.  Jurickson Profar, just a few years ago, was the top rated prospect in all of baseball.  However, a few years of injuries not only sidetracked his progress, but also allowed for other players to pass him up in the system.  Now, the Rangers have a full infield with no room for Profar to play.  Look for him to have a strong start in AAA to show that he is finally healthy again, and then be a popular trading piece for the Rangers to bring in a guy like Lucroy.  This would work out great for both teams as the Brewers could use all the talent they could get.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals every year seem to find a way to win their division no matter how competitive it is.  Will 2016 continue their dominance?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 100-62, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS

Really?  Of all the teams in the league, the Cardinals come out with the best record in baseball?  The NL Central boasted the three best records in baseball in 2015, and the Cardinals found their way on top of the pile ahead of the Pirates and Cubs.  Their season came back down to earth quickly in playoffs though, as the Cubs knocked them out pretty quickly in the NLDS.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals seemed to be connected to most of the high profile outfielders on the market this offseason.  They first wanted to hold on to Jason Heyward, but he chose to sign with the Cubs instead.  They were said to be going hard after Alex Gordon, but he chose to stay in Kansas City.  John Lackey also left, signing with the Cubs also.  When it came down to it, the Cardinals offseason moves really consisted of just one signing and one trade: they signed Mike Leake to replace John Lackey and traded John Jay for Jed Gyorko.  That's about it.  Everything else they plan on handling from within.

Most Important Hitter

Yadier Molina

The Cardinals pride themselves in being able to win with any lineup.  They truly practice the motto, "Next man up."  This is best exemplified by the fact that they won 100 games last year without their ace Adam Wainwright, and they plan on moving forward this year without a big priced free agent to replace Jason Heyward.  With all that said, there is one player on that team that is irreplaceable, and that is Yadier Molina.  He makes this club what it is.  The pitching staff is as good as it is because they throw to Molina.  He is like a coach on the field at all times.  He was pretty banged up last year, and almost didn't start this season due to injury.  He is getting older, entering his age 33 season.  He needs to stay healthy for the team to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Adam Wainwright

It is weird to say that the most important pitcher is a guy that missed most of a 100 win season last year, but it's true.  Adam Wainwright is the guy that makes this rotation great.  The young kids like Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha pitched great in his absence, but Wainwright is the proven ace needed at the top of that rotation.  He is getting up there in age, entering his age 34 season.  He is also coming off a torn Achilles injury.  Although it is not an arm injury, it can affect your pitching.  He needs to come back and be the perennial Cy Young contender once again, especially considering how strong their division is.

Player to Watch

Alex Reyes

As if the Cardinals weren't pitching rich already, 5 of their 8 top prospects are pitchers; fresh arms ready to go.  The best of the group is Alex Reyes, a 21 year old kid that should be ready to contribute in time for a playoff push.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

I think this is finally the year the Cardinals come down to earth a little bit.  Every team around them got significantly better this offseason.  I don't think the same can be said for the Cardinals.  The Pirates and Cubs have passed them up.  There wasn't much separating this group last season.  I think the Cardinals will be at the bottom of the three this time around.  With as much as other teams have improved around the league, I think it is very possible the Cardinals are on the outside of the playoff race also.  Then again, they are the Cardinals.  Maybe they win the World Series this year instead.

Fearless Predictions

Matt Holliday ends the 2016 season as a bench player.

Matt Holliday has quietly been one of the better players in baseball over the last decade.  He has been a model of consistency.  However, last year he was hit with the injury bug in 2015 and started to look old when he was out there.  With the youth movement in St. Louis, and the pressure put on them by division rivals, look for Holliday to end up on the bench by the end of the season if he struggles at all along the way.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs had a breakout season in 2015, leaving many asking if this might be the year they finally win their first championship since 1908.  Can they live up to their 2016 expectations?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central

2015 Result: 97-65, 3rd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS

I had their position in the division right because of the depth of that division.  However, I thought they were one year away from making any impact in the postseason.  Well, they ended up getting all the way to the NLCS before running into the Mets' pitching.  This 2015 result leaves everyone looking for them to take the next step, especially considering how young they are.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

As if their lineup wasn't loaded enough last season, the Cubs went out and bought one of the top free agent bats on the market in Jason Heyward.  They also, unexpectedly, brought back Dexter Fowler after that strange ordeal with the Baltimore Orioles.  To add depth to their rotation, they brought in the ageless John Lackey to slide in after Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.  They seem to be getting closer to having a fully complete team.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

Last season, Kris Bryant had the breakout season that everyone wishes for.  He was possibly the most hyped rookie coming into the season, and somehow exceeded every expectation.  Entering 2016, Bryant is being billed as a superstar of the sport.  If the Cubs want to have the historic season they are hoping for, Kris Bryant needs to avoid a sophomore slump.  Looking at the lofty expectations, it seems inevitable that he will slump at least a little bit.  However, I also didn't think he could be as good as everyone said he would be last season either.  So who knows...

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Lester

Jon Lester was brought in before last season to be the anchor of a staff that needed one.  By the end of the season, he was a complementary piece to the ridiculous run Jake Arrieta was on.  However, it wasn't just Arrieta's brilliance that pushed Lester into the background.  Lester did not have a great season.  It was good, but it was nowhere near the lofty heights he has been in the past.  He is now entering his age 32 season.  The Cubs need last season to be a blip on the radar for Lester and not a sign of things to come.

Player to Watch

Carl Edwards, Jr.

With players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber bursting on the scene in 2015, it has left the Cubs' farm system somewhat depleted of talent ready to help the big club now.  One prospect that has a potential to impact the team in 2016 is Carl Edwards, Jr.  He made his debut last year, coming out of the bullpen a few times.  The Cubs are set with their lineup, but their pitching is nowhere near invincible.  They also trend on the older side.  This could leave room for a guy like Edwards to get some significant time in 2016.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

The Cubs are definitely one of the elite teams in the league entering the year.  I see them taking a big step forward and winning possibly the most competitive division in baseball.  However, their rotation is still something that is less than elite, and I see that coming back to bite them in the playoffs.  You will have teams like the Mets, Giants, Dodgers, and Pirates facing off against them in the playoffs.  The Cubs rotation can't compete with these teams.  Their offense can score, but with the elite pitching staffs around, the Cubs' pitching needs to be better for them to break the "Curse of the Billy Goat."

Fearless Prediction

Jake Arrieta will spend at least 1-2 months on the DL.

For the last season and a half, Jake Arrieta has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball.  He turned around a mediocre career and became one of the best pitchers in baseball, winning the Cy Young in 2015 over guys like Greinke and Kershaw.  Before 2014, the most innings he had thrown in a season was 119 in 2011.  Then he threw 156 innings in 2014 and 229 innings in 2015.  Add another 20 innings to that 2015 total thanks to their postseason run.  He started the postseason on fire, but ran out of gas near the end.  That means he threw almost 100 more innings last season than he had ever thrown before in a single year.  Entering his age 30 season, and getting that kind of workload for the first time, he seems bound for an injury at some point this year.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks had one of the most surprising and active offseasons of any team in baseball.  Will it lead to greater success in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Predictions: 5th in NL West

2015 Result: 79-83, 3rd in NL West

The D-Backs were one of the quiet surprises of 2015.  They kept their record right around .500 thanks to strong hitting from AJ Pollock and perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.  If it is possible for a team to have one of the best players in baseball, over-achieve on expectations, and no one notice, the Diamondbacks pulled it off in 2015.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Arizona shocked the baseball world this offseason.  Nobody saw it coming.  Of course, I am referring to the new Diamondback uniforms.  No, just kidding!  Zack Greinke!!!  Would he sign with the Dodgers?  The Giants?  In about 12 hours, the D-Backs went from being irrelevant in the sweepstakes to signing the prize of the offseason.  They did not stop there either.  If they were getting Greinke, they were going all in.  They traded for starter Shelby Miller, willing to give up their number one draft pick, Dansby Swanson, to get him.  Obviously, the Diamondbacks believe that baseball right now is highly over-valuing prospects.  They were willing to go get their guy, and no one was untouchable.  They then traded for Jean Segura and signed Tyler Clippard to round out the renovation of their team.

Most Important Hitter

Yasmany Tomas

Part of that Shelby Miller deal was also Ender Inciarte, a quality outfielder that gave them good production in 2015.  Then, in the last Spring Training game, AJ Pollock breaks his elbow and might be out for the entire season.  This puts a lot of pressure on a guy like Yasmany Tomas.  Tomas was signed last year as a potential Cuban superstar.  He was productive, but far less than a superstar in his first year in the big leagues.  With no Inciarte and Pollock, they need Tomas to take a huge step forward and help lengthen this lineup that all of a sudden has a few holes.

Most Important Pitcher

Patrick Corbin

The Diamondbacks have a brand new top two of their rotation with Greinke and Miller.  However, the ace of this staff at one point was Patrick Corbin.  He was an All Star in 2013 and poised to progress into a top pitcher in the game.  Then Tommy John surgery before the 2014 season put him out for a year and a half.  He pitched all right in his limited time in 2015, but now he is two years removed from his surgery and should be close to 100% now.  If he is, this rotation can be one of the best in all of baseball.

Player to Watch

Archie Bradley

The Diamondbacks seemed to have sold most of their top prospects over the offseason to improve the team right now, however they had the depth in their system to work with.  They have several player ready to produce now, with several (Brandon Drury, Socrates Brito) making the Opening Day roster.  they also have several pitchers ready to join the rotation behind Greinke, Miller, and Corbin.  Archie Bradley made his big league debut last season with mediocre results, but he should be ready to go as soon as there is a spot for him.  Watch for Bradley and fellow phenom Braden Shipley to make an impact on this team at some point this season.  Both would probably be in the rotation to start the year if it weren't for the active offseason.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL West

I made this prediction before the Pollock injury, but now I am even more sure of it.  The Diamondbacks are definitely a much better team this year.  They have improved in so many areas.  However, I think it will take a year for them to truly fulfill their potential.  I was really big on the Padres last year, and it blew up in my face.  This is a different situation because I think the D-Backs are committed to this plan long term where the Padres gave up by July.  They will be improved in 2016 and finish over .500, but the top of the division is too hard to crack ... yet.

Fearless Prediction

The Diamondbacks' starting centerfielder on August 1st is not currently on the roster.

It looks like the Diamondbacks did not have much of a contingency plan when AJ Pollock went down the other day.  Their current plan is to move infielder Chris Owings, who hasn't played the outfield since high school, to centerfield.  They also have rookie Socrates Brito that might see some time there, but this looks like a situation the front office will try and remedy in another way after not too much time.  I wonder what it would take for them to bring back Ender Inciarte...

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have consistently been one of the most talented teams in the league, but have yet to get over the hump and turn it into postseason success.  Will 2016 change that trend?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL West, lose World Series

2015 Result: 92-70, 1st in NL West, lost in NLDS

The Dodgers had a wonderful 2015 regular season, boasting the best two pitchers in all of baseball.  Clayton Kershaw is the pitcher from another world, but it was Zach Greinke that wound up on top.  However, once again they were not able to turn regular season success into postseason victories as they lost to the eventual NL champs in the NLDS.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

After Greinke had such a historic season in 2015, he skipped town and signed with Arizona.  This was really the only subtraction, but it's a big subtraction.  Added to the roster for 2016 is Scott Kazmir and Japanese import Kenta Maeda to replace the production lost by Greinke.  Other than that, the Dodgers have practically the same roster, however there was one more major change.  Manager Don Mattingly is now in Miami, and rookie manager Dave Roberts has taken over the helm for LA.

Most Important Hitter

Yasiel Puig

Yasiel Puig is one of the greatest enigmas in all of baseball.  For a week, he will look like an MVP candidate.  The next week, he will look like he couldn't make the AAA squad.  People love to talk about his flash and flair, but he needs to be more productive on the field.  If he can consistently produce, all of a sudden their lineup is one of the best in baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenta Maeda

It's rare that a team's most important player entering the season is a rookie, but Japanese imports are not ordinary rookies.  Kenta Maeda was one of the most sought-after free agent pitchers this offseason.  The Dodgers brought him in to potentially be the other ace at the top of the rotation with Clayton Kershaw.  Replacing Zach Greinke is next to impossible, but if Maeda pitches the way some people think he can, he will come close.

Player to Watch

Julio Urias

Everyone knows about Corey Seager: Opening Day starting shortstop, favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and outside candidate for NL MVP.  However, whenever the Dodgers' farm system would be mentioned in trade talks, there were two untouchable prospects named.  The first was Seager, and the second was Julio Urias.  This 19 year old lefty is on a fast track to the big leagues, and if the Dodgers' injury issues continue in their starting rotation, look for Urias to make his big league debut sooner rather than later.  It's obvious that the Dodgers are banking on the future of their franchise to be built around Seager and Urias.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

The Dodgers are set to have another strong regular season in 2016.  Their rotation is not as strong as last year, but it is still pretty good.  Their lineup is always good as well.  However, the problem has always been what they do in the postseason.  With the steps forward the Giants have taken, I see the Dodgers having to work their way through the Wild Card game.  They will win that game, but not get any further.  They need to figure out what it will take to make that next step soon as their current core of players are not getting any younger.

Fearless Prediction

Yasiel Puig will be traded by the Trade Deadline.

One of the things I think it will take for the Dodgers to take a step forward in their progress and production will be to move on from Yasiel Puig.  He has been more distracting than dominant as the Dodgers never quite know what they are going to get out of him.  Sometimes, it is not just about having good players but having the right good players.  The outfield is a position of great depth for the Dodgers, with Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, and Scott Van Slyke all proven big leaguers also on the roster.  They could easily afford to lose Puig, and they would still be able to get a big return for him from somebody.  This is a move that needs to happen though if the Dodgers want to win any time soon.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants followed up their World Series win in 2014 by not making the playoffs in 2015.  They have won the World Series the last three even numbered years.  Can they do it again in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

2015 Result: 84-78, 2nd in NL West

The Giants had what could be considered a disappointing season in 2015, even though they finished over .500.  This is such a bizarre pattern they have established these last five seasons.  In 2010, they win the World Series.  In 2011, they don't make the playoffs.  In 2012, they win the World Series.  In 2013, they don't make the playoffs.  In 2014, they win the World Series.  In 2015, they don't make the playoffs.  I would love to see what would happen if they actually made the playoffs in an odd numbered year.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Giants went against what they normally do and had a fairly active offseason.  They added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to an already strong rotation, while adding Denard Span to the outfield.  They had few notable departures, most notable in name rather than impact to the club.  In bringing in Cueto and Samardzija, they let longtime giants Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum walk, while Tim Hudson retired.

Most Important Hitter

Hunter Pence

Part of what led to the Giants' struggles in 2015 was the injury to Hunter Pence that limited him to just 52 games.  Pence is a contributor on the field, but also a great chemistry guy.  He needs to be on the field for the Giants to have the kind of season they hope for.

Most Important Pitcher

Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last five seasons, but he had a terrible (by his standards) season in 2015.  This offseason he signed a big contract paying him as if last year didn't happen.  That is exactly what the Giants need him to be.  Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija can be one of the best top three in any rotation in the league, but Cueto and Samardzija both have to be better than last year.

Player to Watch

Josh Osich

The Giants have a fairly weak farm system.  However, when you have such a veteran lineup, there is little need for many rookies to have huge impacts.  With that said, here is one that will be on the Opening Day roster.  Josh Osich just barely stayed under the limit for service time to still be considered a rookie in 2016.  Look for him to have an impact as a left-handed specialist out of the Giants' bullpen this season.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL West, win World Series

Why not!  This pattern is ridiculous.  However, this prediction is less about that and more about the fact that the Giants might have their best team since this crazy run started.  Pitching has always been a strength of this team, but this is the best it has been since Lincecum was winning Cy Youngs.  Buster Posey is also the best catcher in baseball.  Complementary pieces like Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, and Matt Duffy fill out a very deep lineup with few weaknesses.  Also, don't forget, they have what might be the greatest postseason performer of all time.  If they make the playoffs, be prepared to be MadBum'ed once again.  It seems inevitable.

Fearless Prediction

The San Francisco Giants come home with MVP, Cy Young, and World Series trophies.

This is a pretty tall order, but not out of the question.  Buster Posey is a contender for MVP every season, and Madison Bumgarner might actually show some of his freak dominance in the regular season after having a full offseason of rest.  This has only happened five times, and not since 1988.  It would be a crazy feat, but not something that should surprise anyone.