2017 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#8

The Seattle Mariners almost made the playoffs in 2014, then struggled in 2015, then almost made the playoffs in 2016.  Will 2017 continue the trend and be a struggle, or will the M's end the longest playoff drought in baseball?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL West

Hisashi Iwakuma makes the All Star Team.

2016 Results

86-76, 2nd in AL West

The Mariners were in the playoff race last season until the last weekend.  This exceeded many people's expectations after the whirlwind offseason they had leading into the 2016 season.  This result seemed even more unlikely after King Felix spent a good portion of the season on the DL.  Hisashi Iwakuma may not have made the All Star Team, but he was the best starter for the M's in 2016.

Additions / Subtractions

Mariners' General Manager Jerry DiPoto followed up one of the busiest offseasons ever in 2016 with one of the busiest offseasons ever in 2017.  He has completely remade the roster again, building a new group around a solid core of stars.  The biggest move of the offseason was trading phenom Taijuan Walker and young starting shortstop Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for established All Star Jean Segura.  Also, gone are Chris Iannetta, Adam Lind, Dae-ho Lee, Nori Aoki, Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez, and Nathan Karns.  Added to the roster are Carlos Ruiz, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Taylor Motter, Drew Smyly, and Yovani Gallardo.  I'm curious to see if this is going to happen every year.

Most Important Hitter

Jean Segura

When a team trades away two future stars for an established player, it proves just how important that player is going to be.  Jean Segura emerged a few years ago for the Brewers.  After a down season or two, he found himself on the D-Backs in 2016, making the All Star Team, leading the NL in hits.  The Mariners brought him in to be a consistent table setter, one thing they have been lacking ever since Ichiro moved on.  Especially with a 3-4-5 of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager, the M's need guys on base when these boppers come to the plate.  Segura needs to continue the production he had in 2016 for the Mariners to be successful in 2017.

Most Important Pitcher

Felix Hernandez

King Felix seemed to be a machine over the last decade.  He was one of the most dominant starters in baseball while making every start.  Last season, all that ended.  Felix had his highest ERA since 2007, and his least innings pitched since 2005 (his first season in the league).  Many people are counting Felix out, saying he is done being dominant.  The Mariners are counting on 2016 being an anomaly, and 2017 will be a return to dominance for the King.  If the Mariners are going to be successful this season, Felix needs to be the King.

Player to Watch

Mitch Haniger

When the Mariners traded for Jean Segura and gave up both Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte, some said they overpaid for the shortstop.  However, others said that this would not be remembered for these three players, but for Mitch Haniger.  Haniger was one of the forgotten prospects that are always thrown into trades like this, however he went out this Spring and won the starting job in rightfield on Opening Day.  The Mariners think they have found a star in Haniger that could exceed the stardom of all three known names in this deal.

2017 Prediction

3rd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The streak will end in 2017!  The Mariners have been so close several times since bringing in Robinson Cano.  With all the moves that have been made, the M's have built around their core of Cano/Cruz/Seager/Felix and found players that will complement them and their strengths.  Edwin Diaz has emerged as an electric closer that will anchor the bullpen.  With all the moves DiPoto made, the Mariners also have a lot of depth to protect from injuries.  I see the Mariners finishing in third in the division, but beating the Rangers in the one game Wild Card round.  Their run may end in the ALDS, but making the playoffs will be a huge step moving forward for the Mariners.

Fearless Prediction

Scott Servais will win AL Manager of the Year.

Ending the longest playoff drought in the league is reason enough to win Manager of the Year.  Add to that the fact that Scott Servais had his first season managing at any level last season, and taking his team to the playoffs will be that much more impressive.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

#9

The Texas Rangers followed up a surprising 2015 with another division title in 2016, however they lost in their first series for the second straight year.  Will 2017 bring about a deep playoff run for the Rangers?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Josh Hamilton will play less than 50 games in 2016 before he retires at season's end.

2016 Results

95-67, 1st in AL West, lost in ALDS

After hitting the cellar in 2014, the Rangers have now won a very competitive division two years in a row.  Not only that, but in 2016 they had the best record in the American League.  The problem is they can't get past the Toronto Blue Jays as they knocked them out for the second year in a row.  As for Josh Hamilton, he never saw a game in the big leagues during 2016.  I don't know why he didn't retire after the season, but he is currently property of the Rangers recovering from yet another surgery.  He will be lucky if he ever sees the major leagues again.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rangers were fairly quiet this offseason.  They let veteran pitchers Colby Lewis and Derek Holland move on, as well as rent-a-players Carlos Beltran and Ian Desmond.  The only significant player brought in was Mike Napoli to replace Mitch Moreland at first base.

Most Important Hitter

Jurickson Profar

Over the last few seasons, one of the biggest issues the Rangers have faced is injuries.  Even this year, Texas is starting the season with 7 players on the DL, including third baseman Adrian Beltre.  One of the injury concerns in past years was Jurickson Profar.  Once the top prospect in baseball, Profar missed all of 2014 and 2015 with injuries.  Last year, I had the Rangers trading him, but instead he emerged as a useful utility player.  In 2017, he is being counted on as a super-utility guy, being able to play pretty much every position on the diamond.  He went from being one of the injury concerns to being the solution to the injuries.  If the Rangers are going to be successful this season, Profar is a key to that success.

Most Important Pitcher

Yu Darvish

When the Rangers traded for Cole Hamels in 2015, they sold Hamels on the deal with the prospects of dominating the top of the rotation with Yu Darvish in future seasons.  Darvish lost all of 2015 and part of 2016 to Tommy John surgery.  For the first time since acquiring Hamels, Darvish is 100% healthy.  It is also the last season of his current contract.  Especially with the injuries the Rangers have entering the season, they need Darvish to be back to his dominant self in 2017 to partner with Hamels and be one of the best top two's in baseball.

Player to Watch

Yohander Mendez

You can never have enough pitching.  The Rangers know that better than anyone.  That is why they are happy to have prospects like Yohander Mendez ready to join the rotation whenever he may be needed.  Ranked the 5th best lefty prospect in all of baseball, this 22 year old got a taste of the Show in 2016, and is now ready to have a breakout year whenever he gets his chance to make an impact.

2017 Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Yes, this is the same prediction as last season.  I see the Rangers once again having a strong regular season and get into the playoffs.  The injuries will probably keep them from winning the division, and their problems of winning in the postseason will continue, but making it to the postseason is huge.  With all that said, the Rangers will start to get antsy as they wonder if they will ever break through with this group.

Fearless Prediction

Joey Gallo will be traded to the Brewers for Ryan Braun.

This is quite a bold prediction, but here is how I see this playing out.  The Rangers have been waiting for Joey Gallo to take off and be the star his potential has said he could be.  With Adrian Beltre starting the season on the DL, Gallo is going to get a chance to show how good he can be.  If he gets off to a hot start, his stock will be high when Beltre comes back to reclaim his hot corner.  If there is any spot in the Rangers lineup that is weak, it is leftfield.  The Rangers and Brewers have a good working relationship after the Jonathan Lucroy trade last year (that I correctly predicted).  If this all works out, Gallo could be the centerpiece of a package going back to the Brewers to bring in the former MVP.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#10

The Colorado Rockies quietly have been improving over the last few seasons.  Will 2017 bring about more growth and maybe even a playoff birth?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in NL West

Carlos Gonzalez will be part of a blockbuster trade at the Trade Deadline.

2016 Results

75-87, 3rd in NL West

The Rockies played slightly better than expected in 2016.  They even had an outside shot at a playoff birth in September.  The struggle in Colorado has always been pitching, however a good group of young arms have made this a bright spot.  Over the last few seasons, Carlos Gonzalez has been on the trading block.  I thought last year would be the year he was finally dealt, but the Rockies decided to hold on to him and try to make a run in 2017 with him.

Additions / Subtractions

One of the surprises of the 2017 offseason was the Rockies signing Ian Desmond, who was a shortstop in 2015, a centerfielder in 2016, and is slated to be a first baseman in 2017 in Colorado.  They also bolstered their bullpen by signing closer Greg Holland and lefty Mike Dunn.  Possibly the biggest change this offseason was the firing of manager Walt Weiss and the hiring of former Padres' manager Bud Black.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

When the Rockies traded Troy Tulowitzki in 2015, many were confused as to why.  When Trevor Story burst on the scene in 2016, everyone understood.  Story ended the year with 27 home runs in only 97 games before going down with an injury.  Now he is entering his sophomore season and won't be sneaking up on anybody.  He has several things to prove in 2017.  First, he needs to prove that 2016 wasn't a fluke.  Second, he needs to prove that he can adjust as big league pitchers adjust to him.  Third, he needs to prove that he won't have the same issues his predecessor, Tulowizki, had in being injury proned.  If he is able to prove all these things, he will help make the Rockies one of the most dangerous lineups in all of baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Greg Holland

The Rockies have taken on a philosophy of building a rotation through their farm system while building a bullpen through trades and free agency.  Greg Holland is a perfect example of this.  Once the closer for the Royals, Holland missed much of the last two seasons with an injury.  He appears to be back to full health, and the Rockies are counting on it as they have made him their closer.  With him anchoring the ninth inning, the Rockies' bullpen sets up pretty well against just about everyone.  If Holland can't cut it, the whole bullpen has to adjust and might not be the strength it looks to be.  All this rides on how Greg Holland is able to pitch this season.

Player to Watch

Jeff Hoffman

The Rockies have one of the youngest rotations in all of baseball, with no starter over the age of 27.  Even with the loss of Chad Bettis to cancer treatments, the starting rotation is also a very deep position going into 2017 with several top prospects waiting in the wings to join the rotation if anything happens.  The best of these starters-in-waiting is Jeff Hoffman, one of the highly-touted prospects the Rockies received in the Troy Tulowitzki trade.  This 24 year old right-hander started 6 games for the Rockies last season, getting a taste of the big leagues.  Now he is ready to make a big impact when they need him.

2017 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

I love the way the Rockies look this season.  They have always sported a strong lineup, highlighted by batting champ DJ LeMahieu and the most underrated superstar in the league in Nolan Arenado.  Now their lineup was been upgraded by the signing of Ian Desmond.  Their pitching staff has grown up in Colorado and knows how to pitch there.  Their bullpen is strong with Greg Holland, Jake McGee, Mike Dunn, and Adam Ottovino.  They also have a new manager in Bud Black that is a former pitcher.  Everything going on is pointing to the Rockies being the surprise team of the season.  I have them taking a Wild Card spot, but not quite at a point that they can advance past the one game Wild Card Game.  If the Rockies make the playoffs though, this will be considered an extremely successful season in Colorado.

Fearless Prediction

A Colorado Rockies player will finish in the top three of the NL MVP voting.

Nolan Arenado is one of the best players in the game.  Ian Desmond has the potential to break out into a superstar at the plate.  One of these two, if not both, will finish in the top three of the NL MVP voting.  If the Rockies are to reach the heights I see them reaching this year, this is something that will have to happen.  Either way, the Rockies should be one of the big topics of conversation of the 2017 season.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

#11

The streak was broken!  For the first time since 2008, the Giants did not emerge as champions on an even numbered year.  Another streak that has lasted just as long as missing the playoffs on odd numbered years.  Will that continue in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in NL West, win World Series

The San Francisco Giants come home with MVP, Cy Young, and World Series trophies.

2016 Results

87-75, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLDS

Last year, I was sticking with the streak until it proved me wrong.  Well, it proved me wrong in 2016.  The Giants even made the playoffs!  They had shown over the last decade that they were unstoppable as long as they make the postseason.  Madison Bumgarner did prove he is more than just a postseason pitcher as he had a dominant season, finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Buster Posey was solid but not quite dominant in his season.  They were really good, but they ran into history when they lost to the Cubs.

Additions / Subtractions

The Giants had a huge offseason in 2016, signing both Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to bolster the rotation.  Picking up Matt Moore and Eduardo Nunez in mid-season trades are huge bonuses moving into 2017.  However, if there has been one weakness for the Giants during this amazing run they have had, it has been their bullpen.  In 2010, 2012, and 2014, three different pitchers closed out the final game, including MadBum in 2014 because Bruce Bochy didn't trust anyone in the bullpen.  They tried to address this this offseason by signing closer Mark Melancon.  For the first time in awhile, the ninth inning will be taken care of in 2017.

Most Important Hitter

Joe Panik

The core of the Giants have been together for awhile.  They are starting to age.  One of the younger kids in their lineup is second baseman Joe Panik.  Panik burst on the scene in 2014 as he became one of the stars of their postseason run.  He followed that up with a strong 2015, making his first All Star Team.  2016 was a massive disappointment as his bat fell asleep for the entire season.  With the age of the Giants' roster, guys like Panik need to step up and show they can become stars for this team.

Most Important Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija

The Giants were expecting great things from their two big signings last year.  Johnny Cueto didn't disappoint as he competed with Madisno Bumgarner for best pitcher on the team.  Although Jeff Samardzija wasn't bad, he also was much less than dominant.  Samardzija has had a few down seasons recently since he left the Cubs.  The Giants were hoping he would emerge as the third ace on the staff, making them near unbeatable.  Now, he is entering the 2017 season not even as their third starter as Matt Moore has passed him up.  Samardzija needs to start to pitch like he is being paid; as an elite superstar in the game.

Player to Watch

Tyler Beede

Outside of the bullpen, another weakness of the Giants' organization over this current run has been their farm system.  They have maintained their aging core, trading prospects to help win now.  This has led to a system that is in the bottom third of the league, sporting just two prospects in baseball's Top 100.  Their top prospect might be a difference maker down the stretch in 2017.  Tyler Beede is a 23 year old starting pitcher that has been working his way up through the Giants' system since he was drafted in 2014.  Look for him to either be a contributor near the end of the season or be a key piece in another trade to help the Giants win now.

2017 Prediction

3rd in NL West

Ten teams make the playoffs.  I have the Giants 11th.  They will be the best team to not make October this season.  They have a strong roster top to bottom as they do every year, however it is hard for a team like this to hold up throughout the full season.  Their age is going to catch up with them, leading to potential injuries.  Injuries will challenge depth, which the Giants lack.  Look for a bounceback in 2018, but the window for this current Giants group is closing quickly.

Fearless Prediction

Buster Posey and Hunter Pence will miss a combined total of 162+ games.

When the Giants struggle, it is because of injuries to key bats in their order.  The heart and soul of their lineup are Buster Posey and Hunter Pence.  When Posey stays healthy, the Giants succeed.  To help with this, Posey is playing more and more first base to avoid the grind of catching every day.  Hunter Pence has been marred by injuries the last two seasons.  Before that, he played every day.  His body appears to be breaking down though.  Injuries to these two will slow this team down enough to keep them away from where they want to be.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

#12

In 2016, the St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010.  In 2011, the Cardinals won the World Series.  Will they have the same luck in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Matt Holliday ends the 2016 season as a bench player.

2016 Results

86-76, 2nd in NL Central

It didn't feel right when we hit October in 2016 and the Cardinals were not a part of the postseason ride.  The Cards have been declining for several seasons, and the talent level finally caught up with them.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Matt Holliday may have still been a starter by the end of the season, but he did have a good season as he put up a 0.3 WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals are always active in the offseason.  Their big move heading into 2017 was returning a favor to the rival Cubs.  Before 2016, the Cubs signed Jason Heyward out of St. Louis.  So before 2017, the Cardinals signed Dexter Fowler out of Chicago.  Outside of this move, the only other significant moves were subtractions, losing Jaime Garcia to a trade and the aging Matt Holliday to free agency.

Most Important Hitter

Aledmys Diaz

The Cardinals were not sure what to do at the start of 2016 when they knew Jhonny Peralta was going to miss the first chunk of the season due to a PED suspension.  Little did everyone know that Aledmys Diaz was going to emerge as an All Star shortstop.  The year ended with Diaz being listed with the rest of the outstanding young shortstops in our game today.  When a guy comes out of nowhere like that, there is always a sense that it might be a fluke season.  However, the Cardinals can't afford that.  They need Diaz to come out and play at an elite level again and prove that he deserves the hype that is now surrounding him.

Most Important Pitcher

Mike Leake

Mike Leake was one of the prizes of the 2016 offseason for the Cardinals.  However, his production did not match his paycheck as he went 9-12 with a 4.69 ERA.  They were hoping Leake would be able to solidify the top of their rotation.  He is entering the season at the bottom of it, and another season like last year might have him out of the rotation completely.  Mike Leake needs to re-establish himself as dominant starter so the Cardinals can once again have a dominant rotation.

Player to Watch

Luke Weaver

No one is ever happy when the words "Tommy John" are attached to a pitcher.  However, if anyone had any joy about them when it was announced that Cardinals' top prospect Alex Reyes was going to miss the season with Tommy John surgery, it was Luke Weaver.  Weaver is the Cardinals' #3 prospect and is also poised for a big league impact this season.  With Reyes down, Weaver moves up the list of pitchers ready to take a spot in the rotation if the big club needs it.  Watch for Weaver to be the next big arm to burst on the scene for a team that seems to have a limitless supply of pitchers.

2017 Predictions

2nd in NL Central

It is always a certainty that the Cardinals will compete the entire season.  Expect them to be in it all season long, if not in the division race, the Wild Card race for sure.  I have them coming up just short again this year.  Their roster lacks the pop it has sported in the past when they have made their deep postseason runs in recent years.  They could easily make their way into the playoffs, and probably make a deep run if they do (they are the Cardinals).  This just feels like another year where they will be just short.

Fearless Prediction

Carlos Martinez will be the NL starting pitcher in the All Star Game.

I have been a fan of Carlos Martinez for several years.  His arm is electric, and he has shown over the last few seasons that he should be considered one of the best young arms in the game.  I see him taking the next step in 2017 and being a superstar.  This would be fully realized with him being named the starter in Miami for the Mid-Summer Classic.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#13

The Baltimore Orioles have been on the brink of being great a several seasons now.  Will 2017 finally be the year they push over the edge?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in AL East

Manny Machado will be playing shortstop by the end of the season.

2016 Results

89-73, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Game

The Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs in 2016, only to lose in their one and only game (seriously, how did Zach Britton never see the field?!?).  They had a dynamite lineup with just enough pitching, as well as a dominant bullpen.  It seemed to be the ticket to get them in the postseason, but it didn't serve them well once they got there.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles are notorious for making very few moves in the offseason.  They let Matt Wieters walk in free agency, and signed Welington Castillo to replace him.  They also traded Yovani Gallardo to the Mariners for Seth Smith.  Outside of these, the biggest move the Orioles made was re-signing Mark Trumbo after his career year.

Most Important Hitter

Mark Trumbo

The Orioles hit the jackpot with Mark Trumbo in 2016.  They traded a backup catcher to the Mariners for the slugger that turned into the home run champ.  Trumbo went into free agency with a high price, but ended up coming back to Baltimore when everyone realized he might be a one hit wonder.  Now, the Orioles are hoping last season was a sign of things to come as he anchors their 2017 lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Dylan Bundy

If there has been one knock on the Orioles during the Buck Showalter years, it has been the starting rotation.  Dylan Bundy has been someone the Orioles have counted on to fix the rotation when he burst on the scene.  However, he went from phenom and can't miss prospect to injury plagued to almost being released to now finally taking his spot in the rotation.  Now Bundy has the potential to anchor a weakening staff as Chris Tillman is starting the year injured, Wade Miley is injured, and Ubaldo Jimenez continues to deteriorate with age.  Bundy's success is fairly closely tied to the Orioles' success.

Player to Watch

Chance Sisco

One of the reasons the Orioles let Wieters walk this offseason was the upcoming debut and emergence of Chance Sisco.  Sisco, the only Orioles' prospect in the Top 100 Prospects in the game, is a great hitting prospect that the Orioles hope to see behind the plate for years to come.  Bringing in Welington Castillo is a short-term solution, as he will also work as a mentor for young Sisco throughout the season.  The questions is not if, but when Sisco takes over behind the plate.

2017 Prediction

2nd in AL East

The Orioles are going to have a very similar season to 2016.  The problem is I don't think it will be enough to get them into the playoffs this season.  Trumbo can't repeat his performance from last year.  The rotation, if possible, will take a step back.  Britton will be dominant again, but it just won't be enough.  Look for them to be the last team to be eliminated from playoff contention in the American League.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado will be starting at shortstop by the end of the season.

This is the same prediction as I made last season.  In 2016, Manny Machado did play for a good portion of the season at shortstop when J.J. Hardy was injured.  However, when J.J. Hardy got healthy again, Machado moved back to third.  He is one of the best defensive third basemen in the league, but he could also be one of the best shortstops in the league.  Let's face it, Machado is one of the best in the league no matter where he plays.  Eventually, the Orioles are going to move on from J.J. Hardy.  He is entering his age 34 season, and his offense has declined.  He is still a decent glove man, but if they decide they need more than that, they may try and upgrade at third while moving Machado to short.  Either way, if Machado doesn't move to short this season, it probably will never happen.