2024 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #20

The Kansas City Royals had a sneaky good off-season.  Does it have them set up to contend in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#25 - 4th in AL Central

MIH - Vinnie Pasquatino

MIP - Daniel Lynch

PTW - Drew Waters

FP - Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.

2023 Results

#29 - 56-106, 5th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Bobby Witt Jr.

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Cole Ragans

The Royals struggled in 2023 despite having one of the most dynamic young players in the game.  Their young first base slugger was hurt most of the season, their young pitching stumbled...  It was almost all bad.

Additions / Subtractions

The Royals off-season was defined by a bunch of smaller signings that make you say, "Oh, that's a sneaky good move."  They brought in starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to stabilize their rotation.  They brought in relievers Will Smith, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton to stabilize the bullpen.  They brought in veterans Adam Frazier and Hunter Renfroe to stabilize the lineup.  Not one of these moves moves the needle, but the combination of them all is impressive.

Most Important Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr.

I don't know if another team is tying its entire success over the next decade to one player quite like the Royals and Bobby Witt Jr.  Entering his third season, Witt has shown he is everything that his potential promised.  Somehow he didn't make the All Star Team last year, but he did finish 7th in MVP despite being on a 100+ loss team.  He could be in the conversation as one of the best players in baseball in the next year or two.  All the small moves the Royals made only work if Witt stays healthy and continues to play like a budding superstar.

Most Important Pitcher

Cole Ragans

Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season for Aroldis Chapman, Cole Ragans came to the Royals and quickly established himself as the ace of the young staff.  It was success he hadn't seen yet in the big leagues.  Now, with all the veterans on the pitching staff, the Royals are looking to Ragans to continue his dominance he showed at the end of last season and emerge as a true ace.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Loftin

The Royals currently have the 28th best farm system in baseball with only one prospect ranked in the Top 100, and that prospect won't be ready for at least another year.  Their second best prospect, though, started the season on the Opening Day roster.  Nick Loftin was drafted in 2020 as a top shortstop, and now he is entering 2024 as the go to utility man in Kansas City.  It takes a true athlete to thrive in a role like that, and the Royals believe he is that kind of athlete.  He could be yet another sneaky good addition to this roster.

2024 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

I know it would be quite a jump, but the Royals have two things going for them.  First, their roster may have seen more turnover than any other roster in the league, mainly with proven veterans.  Second, the AL Central is the weakest division in baseball ... by a lot.  The Royals are poised to make a leap like this in 2024.  They won't have much of a shot at the Wild Card, but they could make a push for the division crown.

Fearless Prediction

Salvador Perez will be traded before the start of next season.

The one constant in Kansas City over the highs and lows of the last decade has been Salvador Perez behind the plate.  He was on the team before their run in the mid-2010's, and he's the last one left after that run ended.  Now, he is in the last two seasons of his contract, and the Royals have a catcher as their top prospect.  It's not very likely, but there's a chance the Royals decide to finally move on from Sally, see what they can get for him, and move forward with their young prospect next year.  It's probably more likely that Perez is a lifelong Royal, but the possibility is there.

2024 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Guardians

 #21

The Cleveland Guardians saw their legendary manager retire at the end of 2023.  Will their rookie manager be ready to lead them to the postseason?

2023 Predictions

#14 - 2nd in AL Central

MIH - Andres Gimenez

MIP - Triston McKenzie

PTW - Bo Naylor

FP - Steven Kwan will win the AL batting title in 2023.

2023 Results

#22 - 76-86, 3rd in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Andres Gimenez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Tanner Bibee

The 2023 season for the Guardians was the definition of mediocrity.  They were never bad, but they weren't really relevant either.  Their best players either got injured or had average seasons.  There was little to cheer about, but you couldn't really jeer the season either.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest change heading into 2024 for the Guardians is the retirement of longtime manager Terry Francona.  He has been replaced by the recently retired player Stephen Vogt.  Very few changes were made to the roster.  Veteran starter Carlos Carrasco is back in Cleveland, and they acquired veteran outfielder Estevan Florial.

Most Important Hitter

Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan had one of the greatest starts to a career you could have in 2022.  Despite cooling off the second half of the season, he still almost hit .300 and sported a 124 OPS+.  In 2023, the sophomore slump set in, as his OPS+ fell to 100 and only hit .268 (far from a batting title).  Perfectly average.  The Guardians have a couple thumpers in the middle of the lineup, but they need someone on base ahead of them.  If Kwan can get back to his 2022 self, this offense might actually be okay.

Most Important Pitcher

Emmanuel Clase

Few bullpens these days are defined by one dominant arm at closer.  Cleveland is one of them.  Emmanuel Clase might be the best closer in baseball, and the Guardians lean heavily on him because of it.  If Clase gets hurt or starts to struggle, it could derail the entire bullpen.  If he stays healthy and dominant, their bullpen works.

Prospect to Watch

Brayan Rocchio

With the 19th ranked farm system in baseball, the Guardians sport 4 players in the Top 100.  One of those is the Opening Day shortstop, Brayan Rocchio.  Ranked #91 overall and 3rd in the system, Rocchio made his debut at the end of 2023, and now the 23 year old switch hitter is ready for the full time gig.  He's a solid hitter and a good base runner, but his best attribute is his defense which could lead to a Gold Glove at some point in his career.

2024 Prediction

3rd in AL Central

The Guardians the last few seasons have felt like a team where their amazing manager willed them into contention every season despite their roster.  Now with Francona gone, I don't know how well they can do.  I'm a fan of new manager Stephen Vogt, but it might take him a little while to make this roster and team his.

Fearless Prediction

Shane Bieber will be traded mid-season.

Simply from the nature of their division, the Guardians might be in contention for awhile this season, but I could also see them realize an opportunity to cash in on one of their best players before he cashes in with another team next season.  Shane Bieber has had moments of being elite in Cleveland, and now he's heading into his final season before free agency.  I don't think the Guardians will re-sign him, which means they will probably trade him.

2024 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

 #22

The Minnesota Twins went through some cost cutting this off-season.  Will the result still bring about wins in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#21 - 3rd in AL Central

MIH - Byron Buxton

MIP - Kenta Maeda

PTW - Simeon Woods Richardson

FP - Byron Buxton plays more games in 2023 than Carlos Correa.

2023 Results

#10 - 87-75, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Ryan Jeffers

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Sonny Gray

The AL Central is always up for grabs, and the Twins went out and took it in 2023.  They did this with only half a season from their most talented player in Byron Buxton.  Their pitching carried them.  Their rotation pitched well enough that the lineup just needed to score enough.  It was good enough for a division championship and a playoff run.

Additions / Subtractions

The Twins were active this off-season moving payroll around and saving money.  Gone are Jorge Polanco, Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Emilio Pagan, and Jorge Lopez.  Coming to the Twins in their place are Carlos Santana, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani, and Justin Topa.  The subtraction list is much more impressive than the addition list.

Most Important Hitter

Edouard Julien

One of the breakout stars for the Twins in 2023 was Edouard Julien at second base.  All he did was hit, gathering a 130 ERA+ with a .263 average, 16 homers in just 109 games.  Entering only his age 25 season, the Twins felt good enough about Julien to trade away their All Star second baseman in Jorge Polanco.  Now Julien has to show that 2023 was the start of something great instead of a fluky flash to start his career.

Most Important Pitcher

Pablo Lopez

With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda moving on, Pablo Lopez is now the true ace of the Twins.  Coming off a solid season with a 117 ERA+, Lopez has become a trendy dark horse pick for the Cy Young in 2024.  With the loss of depth in their rotation, the Twins need Lopez to be that good to anchor that rotation.  Otherwise, the team will need to score a lot more than last season.

Prospect to Watch

Brooks Lee

If the Twins need to score in 2024, Brooks Lee might be a major factor in doing so.  Sporting the 15th best farm system in baseball, the Twins have four prospects in the Top 100, and Lee is the one most likely to impact the team this season.  Ranked the 18th best prospect in baseball, and the 2nd best prospect in the system, Brooks Lee is a 23 year old switch hitting shortstop that just knows how to hit.  A first round pick in 2022, Lee looks to have an impact at some point in 2024 for the big league club.

2024 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The AL Central is as unpredictable of a division as I have seen in awhile.  While the AL East has 4 elite teams and one good team, the AL Central has 4 average teams and one bad team.  Anything can happen.  With the steps back due to payroll the Twins took, I see them taking a step back, however never count out the Twins.  They will always be interesting.

Fearless Prediction

Half the Twins Opening Day lineup will be traded before the start of 2025.

The Twins tried to reset some payroll this off-season while still competing.  If they struggle like I think they might, there could be a full reset in order.  Names like Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff were already on the trade block leading into this season, and Carlos Santana is a perennial Trade Deadline acquisition.  Do they finally give up on Byron Buxton?  Does Royce Lewis become expendable to make room for Brooks Lee?  Does Carlos Correa?  The Twins could become very interesting next off-season.

2024 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

 #23

The Pittsburgh Pirates are quietly building one of the best young cores in baseball.  Is 2024 the year they break out and contend?

2023 Predictions

#24 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Oneil Cruz

MIP - Roansy Contreras

PTW - Endy Rodriguez

FP - Bryan Reynolds sign a big extension with the Pirates.

2023 Results

#23 - 76-86, 4th in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ke'Bryan Hayes

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Mitch Keller

The Pirates started the year out strong, but faded at the end.  Young players they are counting on like Ke'Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller took huge steps forward, while their most talented player, Oneil Cruz, spent most of the season injured with a broken leg.  Overall, 2023 was a solid step forward, especially when you add in that they extended star outfielder Bryan Reynolds through 2031 instead of trading him (as I predicted).

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates have become masters of the short term veteran contracts to compliment their young core.  So in comes veteran lefties Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez to stabilize the rotation.  Aroldis Chapman was brought in to strengthen the bullpen.  Michael A. Taylor is a sneaky good signing to man centerfield.  They didn't really have any significant subtractions outside of what they traded away at the deadline last season.

Most Important Hitter

Oneil Cruz

This was my answer last season as well, but after missing most of 2023 with his freak injury, it is even more the case this season.  Cruz is only entering his age 25 season and is probably still the most talented player on the roster.  He needs to pick his development up right where it left off if the Pirates are going to take any steps forward this season.  He got off to a pretty slow start in 2023 before the injury.  He needs to be 100% healthy and continuing to show that he can be the superstar shortstop Pittsburgh is expecting.

Most Important Pitcher

Marco Gonzales

The starting lineup for the Pirates can be lethal, but the rotation is not as secure.  Some veterans were brought in to help, and Marco might be the most important of the group.  He has spent the last 7 seasons as the ace of the Mariners' staff so he knows what it takes to be an innings eater and a veteran leader.  He was hurt most of last season, but even if his production is lackluster in 2024, his leadership and mentorship of the Pirates' young pitchers might be as important as anything else.

Prospect to Watch

Paul Skenes

The Pirates currently have the 9th best farm system in baseball with 5 players cracking the Top 100, all of which could debut in the next 18 months.  The most exciting of these is Paul Skenes.  The #1 overall pick in last year's draft, Skenes is a freak on the mound that could probably make the Opening Day start as the Pirates new ace and few would argue.  Instead he is starting this season in the minors, but his debut will be one of the most anticipated of 2024 whenever is does happen.

2024 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

I love what the Pirates are building.  It's only a matter of time before they are competing for the division title.  It helps that their division is possibly the worst in the league, but they should take another step forward in 2024 and be relevant for most of the season in the postseason talk.

Fearless Prediction

2024 will be the last season the Pirates finish under .500 this decade.

The strong core of talent the Pirates have at the big league level already, combined with the talent about to arrive, as well as the stars Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller signed for the foreseeable future, and the Pirates are one of the best positioned franchises in baseball.  They might not be ready to make a postseason run this season, but it will be the last season they are irrelevant for some time.

2024 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #24

The Miami Marlins slipped into the playoffs in 2023 to everyone's surprise.  Could they do it again in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#17 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Jazz Chisholm Jr.

MIP - Sandy Alcantara

PTW - Eury Perez

FP - Sandy Alcantara will win a second straight Cy Young.

2023 Results

#15 - 84-78, 3rd in NL East, lost in NLWC

Highest WAR (Position) - Luis Arraez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Jesus Luzardo

Rookie manager Skip Schumaker found some of that Marlins magic in year one at the helm.  In one of the toughest divisions in baseball, Miami found some success despite Sandy Alcantara not finishing the season, needing Tommy John and keeping him out for this season as well.  Jesus Luzardo stepped up and showed some of the promise that made him a top prospect back in the day.  Also, Luis Arraez continued to just hit.

Additions / Subtractions

The Marlins continue to play the low budget game.  Many of their veterans have moved on and are replaced by different veterans.  So out is Yuli Gurriel, Joey Wendle, Jean Segura, and (most notably) Jorge Soler.  Brought in is veteran shortstop Tim Anderson, joining mid-season pickups last season in Jake Burger and Josh Bell to fill these holes.  The pitching staff remains pretty much the same.

Most Important Hitter

Avisail Garcia

It's rare the Marlins throw money at a player, and when they do it's rarely much.  With that said, when they signed Avisail Garcia to a 4 year, $53 million deal two years ago, it was a big deal.  Now, halfway through the contract, Garcia has only played 135 games with very little production.  The biggest question with the Marlins this season is if they can score runs.  They let a lot of production walk out the door and need someone to step up and replace it.  If Garcia can find some new life in his career, stay healthy, and show a small sign of why he was given that contract, the Marlins lineup might be okay.

Most Important Pitcher

A.J. Puk

The strength of this Marlins team is their pitching, even without Sandy Alcantara this season.  Jesus Luzardo, followed by phenom Eury Perez, can be a pretty good 1-2 punch.  Then there's A.J. Puk.  Puk was supposed to be the ace of the A's staff by now.  Instead, after struggling in the bullpen, he was traded to Miami for a change of scenery.  Last season, Puk had limited success splitting time as the closer.  Now, the Marlins are giving Puk a chance to fulfill his potential as a starter.  At 6'7" with velocity from the left side, we still could see Puk take off.  If he does, this rotation truly shows some great depth.

Prospect to Watch

Max Meyer

Another pitcher that could help that depth is Max Meyer.  The Marlins have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, ranking 29th with only 1 prospect in the Top 100 (and he's still a couple years away).  However, Max Meyer is a wild card.  The 3rd overall pick in the 2020 draft, Meyer was my Prospect to Watch in 2022.  He was poised to break out until he went down with the dreaded Tommy John in his second big league start.  Now he's finally healthy again, and he has another chance to show what he can be.  If he gets back to where he was before the injury, the Marlins have another solid starter.

2024 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Marlins always seem to find a way to be relevant, but it looks like it could be hard to get there this year.  They just lack offense.  Their pitching is great, but can they make up for the lackluster lineup.  There are too many teams on the rise for the Marlins to compete, especially without their best player this season.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Marlins Opening Day lineup will not be on the roster by the end of the 2024 season.

When you try to build a lineup through veteran bats, they get traded away if your season goes south.  If they don't look like they have a shot, there's a good chance we see a mass exodus mid-season of players like Tim Anderson, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Avisail Garcia.

2024 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #25

The Chicago Cubs had a solid season in 2023, almost making the playoffs.  So ... they fired their manager.  Would the change in leadership lead to more success?

2023 Predictions

#15 - 2nd in NL Central

MIH - Dansby Swanson

MIP - Kyle Hendricks

PTW - Hayden Wesneski

FP - Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

2023 Results

#17 - 83-79, 2nd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Nico Hoerner

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Steele

The Cubs were about what I thought they would be in 2023, even though they may have done it in a different way.  Dansby Swanson, their prize of last off-season, was an All Star and got MVP votes despite being average at the plate.  Kyle Hendricks had a pretty good bounce back year also.  The surprises of 2023 were starter Justin Steele, infielder Nico Hoerner, and the resurrection of Cody Bellinger.  They were in the conversation for a playoff spot right to the end, finishing only 1 game out of a Wild Card berth.  By all accounts, 2023 was a pretty successful season from a big brand working their way back to the top.

Additions / Subtractions

So why did they fire their manager?!?  David Ross, a fan favorite back to his playing days, is out.  This move had nothing to do with David Ross and had everything to do with the fact that they could upgrade to Craig Counsell, who left the rival Brewers for the big market and the pig payday.  Three other additions of note: one got a lot of press, one got a little press, and one got very little, but all were significant.  First, Cody Bellinger finally re-signed with the Cubs after his huge turnaround season.  Next, the Cubs signed Japanese import Shota Imanaga to replace Marcus Stroman in the rotation.  He was a top pitcher in Japan and could turn into a huge signing.  Then, a small trade of prospects brought to the Cubs Michael Busch, who will be on the Opening Day roster and is set to have a big impact for the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Cody Bellinger

One of the most fascinating free agency cases this off-season was Cody Bellinger.  He's been an MVP, he's been one of the worst hitters in baseball, and last year he made a triumphant return to his old form.  However, heading into free agency, which player do you pay?  Bellinger wanted to be paid like the potential MVP candidate, while clubs were more skeptical that he was back.  The Cubs, more out of necessity, finally paid him, but waited till after Spring Training had already started to do so.  Now, they have significant funds invested in the Bellinger of 2023.  If he continues to show that's once again who he is, the Cubs lineup could be quite potent.  If not, the Cubs could be stuck with the contract they didn't want.

Most Important Pitcher

Shota Imanaga

I thought about going with Justin Steele here after his huge breakout in 2023, but Shota Imanaga might determine the true success of this pitching staff.  Japanese pitchers have had mixed success in the majors.  When they are good, they're really good.  When they're not, they can really struggle.  Imanaga has a chance to be really good and an ace of the staff like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Shohei Ohtani, but he also could fall into the category of Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, and Yusei Kikuchi.

Prospect to Watch

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The Cubs have a bright future, with 7 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these is ready to break out in 2024 in Pete Crow-Armstrong.  Ranked the 16th best prospect in all of baseball, Crow-Armstrong is a 21 year old lefty outfielder that the Cubs acquired a few years ago in the Javier Baez trade with the Mets.  He is set to be a solid hitter with okay power, but his best tools are his speed and fielding ability.  He is a future Gold Glove winner in centerfield.  The Cubs are excited to give him the opportunity in 2024 to show what he's got.

2024 Predictions

4th in NL Central

The Cubs are on their way back to the top, so why are they so low?  They are in a weird division that literally anyone could win.  Someone has to finish in first, and someone has to finish in last.  Where some divisions are unpredictable because of how many elite teams there are, this division is unpredictable because all the teams are good but not great.  The Cubs are in the middle of that and have enough question marks that they could end up near the bottom of the standings.

Fearless Prediction

Pete Crow-Armstrong will win a 2024 Gold Glove.

Why wait?  If Pete Crow-Armstrong is as good as they say he is, the defense will transfer over immediately.  If the defense is as elite as it is supposed to be, this reality will only be held back by his playing time in his rookie season.  If he hits, he will get enough playing time to make this happen.